Two Goats, One Car!

ok i am going to get a headache soon :mad:

Wompa1

28064212 wrote: »

Exactly. Obviously it's not easy to explain why, but bear with me


You have a 33% chance that the one you picked originally is right. You'd be a fool not to switch

The way I would see it is, if he is giving you an option again that means it's a fresh selection. You pick between 2...so it's actually 50/50?

I get the theory behind it, that you look at it as being between the 3 and 1 is down therefor, if you change now it's a projected 66% ...but that's a theory. Like the double up method in roulette.

Earthhorse

bluewolf wrote: »

ok i am going to get a headache soon :mad:

I know, and if I reveal when, it'll increase your chances of getting a headache but only if you decide you won't get a headache soon.

pickarooney

Wompa1 wrote: »

The way I would see it is, if he is giving you an option again that means it's a fresh selection. You pick between 2...so it's actually 50/50?

If you ignore everything you know or toss a coin, yes, it's 50:50 as you're reselecting with new choices and statistics. In this case you are going to either pick the higher percentage door or pick the lower percentage door, but at random. If you consciously choose to pick the lower percentage door, you're shooting yourself in the foot, statistically.

28064212

Wompa1 wrote: »

The way I would see it is, if he is giving you an option again that means it's a fresh selection. You pick between 2...so it's actually 50/50?

It's only a fresh selection if the remaining goat and car are randomly assigned to new doors. They are not, so what happened beforehand affects the probabilities

Wompa1 wrote: »

I get the theory behind it, that you look at it as being between the 3 and 1 is down therefor, if you change now it's a projected 66% ...but that's a theory. Like the double up method in roulette.

It's not a projected theory, and nothing like the double up method. It's an absolutely definitive mathematical probability. Over an infinite (or very, very large) number of iterations of the game, switching will win 66% of the time

Wompa1

Earthhorse wrote: »

I know, and if I reveal when, it'll increase your chances of getting a headache but only if you decided you won't get a headache soon.

Yes but has there been a variable change? Has he/she started to feel a headache? Have they become more dehydrated?

I revert to the useless explanation in the movie Deja vu..it's possible when you view the universe as a piece of paper, we simply fold the paper....My God!

Tiddlypeeps

Wompa1 wrote: »

The way I would see it is, if he is giving you an option again that means it's a fresh selection. You pick between 2...so it's actually 50/50?

I get the theory behind it, that you look at it as being between the 3 and 1 is down therefor, if you change now it's a projected 66% ...but that's a theory. Like the double up method in roulette.

That's the point its not 50/50, its 33.33/66.66. The fact that you made the decision when the odds were 1/3 and that you carried the same decision over means its not a fresh selection.

And the double up method in roulette works as long as there is no maximum bet, its not just a theory its practically demonstrable. Same as the cups, if you play it out at home with cups and a ball you can see it work.

Sheeps

has anyone posted goatse yet?

Wompa1

pickarooney wrote: »

If you ignore everything you know or toss a coin, yes, it's 50:50 as you're reselecting with new choices and statistics. In this case you are going to either pick the higher percentage door or pick the lower percentage door, but at random. If you consciously choose to pick the lower percentage door, you're shooting yourself in the foot, statistically.

28064212 wrote: »

It's only a fresh selection if the remaining goat and car are randomly assigned to new doors. They are not, so what happened beforehand affects the probabilities


It's not a projected theory, and nothing like the double up method. It's an absolutely definitive mathematical probability. Over an infinite (or very, very large) number of iterations of the game, switching will win 66% of the time

Tiddlypeeps wrote: »

That's the point its not 50/50, its 33.33/66.66. The fact that you made the decision when the odds were 1/3 and that you carried the same decision over means its not a fresh selection.

And the double up method in roulette works as long as there is no maximum bet, its not just a theory its practically demonstrable. Same as the cups, if you play it out at home with cups and a ball you can see it work.

Yeah I gotcha. The Double up theory is valid if you have an infinite number of goes. Realistically you won't and you will either win or lose everything.

I'd still stay. I go with my gut.

Speaking of Game Shows anyone ever find it a cop out when on Who Wants to be a Millionare they ask the contestant which one's they are thinking about before they make it 50/50 and then the two they mention are left?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0SpKIBDUw

pickarooney

Wompa1 wrote: »

Speaking of Game Shows anyone ever find it a cop out when on Who Wants to be a Millionare they ask the contestant which one's they are thinking about before they make it 50/50 and then the two they mention are left?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0SpKIBDUw

I was thinking of exactly the same thing a minute ago

dougal-maguire

Wompa1 wrote: »

The way I would see it is, if he is giving you an option again that means it's a fresh selection. You pick between 2...so it's actually 50/50?

I get the theory behind it, that you look at it as being between the 3 and 1 is down therefor, if you change now it's a projected 66% ...but that's a theory. Like the double up method in roulette.

:eek:

dont get pete started on that again

Earthhorse

Wompa1 wrote: »

Yes but has there been a variable change? Has he/she started to feel a headache? Have they become more dehydrated?

What am I? A doctor?

I revert to the useless explanation in the movie Deja vu..

Take these pills.

it's possible when you view the universe as a piece of paper, we simply fold the paper....My God!

And these.

NewDirection

pickarooney wrote: »

OK, the combination of the video and the realisation that the 1/3 refers not to the chances of winning in a specific instance of selecting a cup but to to the chances of winning per three complete iterations of the game has me seeing it in a new light.

Now, I want to see a video from someone with no vested interest in proving the theory right doing the following:

The player picks a door/cup. The host reveals an animal. Repeat 20 times.
Now a second player, who hasn't seen the original choice, picks one cup from each of the twenty sets.

What do people guess the result would be in this case?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_djTy3G0pg

28064212

Wompa1 wrote: »

I'd still stay. I go with my gut.

It would be insane to do so. Picture this: I show you 3 cards - 2 hearts and a spade. I randomly shuffle them and pick one, and ask you to guess which suit it is. Which suit would you pick (assume it's a fair shuffle and selection, and I'm not doing a magic trick)? Picking spades would be exactly equivalent to not switching

Wompa1 wrote: »

Speaking of Game Shows anyone ever find it a cop out when on Who Wants to be a Millionare they ask the contestant which one's they are thinking about before they make it 50/50 and then the two they mention are left?

Yeah I could never understand why the contestant said what they were thinking. Didn't they cop on after the first 100 times it happened?

TeddyTedson

In before the mods move this to the Maths forum

I don't think I'll ever understand this:o

OutlawPete

dougal-maguire wrote: »

:eek:

dont get pete started on that again

Well, I did warn that starting out with one grand bets and losing just five times in row, would cost someone over €30,000 - so my conscious is clear

subway

wtf, anyone got a link to the original clip in english rather than 56k modem tones?