Egypt to follow Tunisia?

Jonny7

I think people are waking up a bit and noticing that some pro-West holiday destinations actually have bad dictators and regimes.

We are very shaped by the whims and bias of our own media.

Anyway the yo-yo is happening, apparently now he has fled somewhere and the army council is in charge?

wes

From Al Jazeera:

Hosni Mubarak resigns as president

Egyptian president stands down and hands over power to the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces.

Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president, has resigned from his post, handing over power to the armed forces.

Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, announced in a televised address that the president was "waiving" his office, and had handed over authority to the Supreme Council of the armed forces.

Suleiman's short statement was received with a roar of approval and by celebratory chanting and flag-waving from a crowd of hundreds of thousands in Cairo's Tahrir Square, as well by pro-democracy campaigners who attended protests across the country on Friday.

"Tonight, after all of these weeks of frustration, of violence, of intimidation ... today the people of Egypt undoubtedly [feel they] have been heard, not only by the president, but by people all around the world," our correspondent at Tahrir Square reported, following the announcement.

Pro-democracy activists in the Egyptian capital had marched on the presidential palace and state television buildings on Friday, the 18th consecutive day of protests.

Click here for full article

Looks like the Twitter people are right.

Overheal

Cheering in the streets, flags waving.

Pauleta

Amazing scenes. It also shows terrorist organisations that you dont have to blow people up to achieve something.

Playboy

Brillaint News! What a victory for peaceful protest over violence and intimidation. So glad that they didnt give up and leave Mubarak in power till September. All Egyptians who fought to remove him in protests all over Egypt and Embassies across the world should be so pround of themselves. It's the dawn of a new democratic era for Egypt and hopefully indicative of more changes to come in the Middle East.

partyatmygaff

The streets are crazy at the moment. People are riotously happy but i'm a bit worried for the future myself.

Once the celebration has died down what will happen? The constitution has been breached by transferring power directly to the military and the next few hours will dictate what is to follow for Egypt.

clln

partyatmygaff wrote: »

The streets are crazy at the moment. People are riotously happy but i'm a bit worried for the future myself.

Once the celebration has died down what will happen? The constitution has been breached by transferring power directly to the military and the next few hours will dictate what is to follow for Egypt.

Yes let us hope the people of Egypt do not regret what they wished for.
look what happened after the Shah of Iran stepped down.
some suspect that this popular uprising had some dark forces fanning the flames.

i wonder what happened overnight that gave him such a sharp change of mind.

well whatever best of luck to Egyptians and hope life gets better for them!

partyatmygaff

clln wrote: »

Yes let us hope the people of Egypt do not regret what they wished for.
look what happened after the Shah of Iran stepped down.
some suspect that this popular uprising had some dark forces fanning the flames.

i wonder what happened overnight that gave him such a sharp change of mind.

well whatever best of luck to Egyptians and hope life gets better for them!

Time will tell.

Playboy

partyatmygaff wrote: »

The streets are crazy at the moment. People are riotously happy but i'm a bit worried for the future myself.

Once the celebration has died down what will happen? The constitution has been breached by transferring power directly to the military and the next few hours will dictate what is to follow for Egypt.

These type of regimes always try and use fear of change to prevent change. Did anyone really take any notice of the constitution anyway? 30 years emergency law and presidency .. rigged elections, bribery, corruption and torture .. Whatever comes next I have no doubt that it will be better than what came before.

The youth of country will continue to fight to make sure that free and fair elections will be impletmented and that Egypt will have a better future. Its a day to celebrate and a great day in the history of your country

Playboy

clln wrote: »

Yes let us hope the people of Egypt do not regret what they wished for.
look what happened after the Shah of Iran stepped down.
some suspect that this popular uprising had some dark forces fanning the flames.

i wonder what happened overnight that gave him such a sharp change of mind.

well whatever best of luck to Egyptians and hope life gets better for them!

completley different situations .. this is no Islamic or Clerical revolution. This is a secular youth movement fighting for a democratic country. The Mulsim Brotherhood which only represents 20-30% of the population insists it wants a secular democratic government but based on Islamic principals .. that is a massive difference to the type of regime in Iran.

partyatmygaff

Playboy wrote: »

The Muslim Brotherhood which only represents 20-30% of the population insists it wants a secular democratic government but based on Islamic principals (sic)

Secular government based on Islamic principles...

What?

clln

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Time will tell.

Israel must be really concerned about this, Sky just reporting that all the top Military have remained in their posts,it's an open secret they do not like the peace that Anwar Sadat died for.

partyatmygaff

clln wrote: »

Israel must be really concerned about this, Sky just reporting that all the top Military have remained in their posts,it's an open secret they do not like the peace that Anwar Sadat died for.

The people as a whole dislike Israel but they do not want to restart conflict with Israel. The many Israel-Egypt wars of the 50-70s provided for troubled periods in Egypt. There are of course extremist groups who intend to tear apart the peace treaty though.

wes

Pauleta wrote: »

Amazing scenes. It also shows terrorist organisations that you dont have to blow people up to achieve something.

Yes, its a massive repudiation of Al Qaeda, but its also a massive repudiation of the Neo-cons as well, who believed that violence was needed for there to be change in the Middle East, as evidences by the invasion of Iraq.

Overheal

I don't anticipate a Military Regime and most of the media seems to be in agreement that the Military is installed as a Transitory Government only until such time as the Egyptian people rewrite their Constitution and hold elections and inaugurations. The people already seem to have a strong respect for their military (not the Police) and the Military in turn vowed it would not fire on the people of Egypt.

I suppose it would have been the same for Ireland but for the fact that the government found sense and called for General Election.

Playboy

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Secular government based on Islamic principles...

What?

Well Ireland is a secular country based on Christian principles as are most Western democracies. There is liberal thinking in Islam .. the wahhabi extremist views dont have to apply every time we speak about Islam.

Playboy

Overheal wrote: »

I don't anticipate a Military Regime and most of the media seems to be in agreement that the Military is installed as a Transitory Government only until such time as the Egyptian people rewrite their Constitution and hold elections and inaugurations. The people already seem to have a strong respect for their military (not the Police) and the Military in turn vowed it would not fire on the people of Egypt.

I suppose it would have been the same for Ireland but for the fact that the government found sense and called for General Election.

Well there is national service in Egypt so every family in Egypt will have members who have been or currently are in the military... hence the respect the army have for the general poulation and vice versa. The police were basically the strong arm of a corrupt government in contrast.

KerranJast

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Secular government based on Islamic principles...

What?

Turkey is such a country. A majority Muslim population but a fairly secular Government, by Middle East standards anyway.

Playboy

lol just saw an egyptian acquaintance of mine speaking on the BBC! Surreal!

partyatmygaff

Playboy wrote: »

Well Ireland is a secular country based on Christian principles as are most Western democracies. There is liberal thinking in Islam .. the wahhabi extremist views dont have to apply every time we speak about Islam.

The main Muslim opposition in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood.


Their main slogan is "Islam is the Solution," a mysterious slogan that excludes "infidels" such as the Christians and the Jews. The Brotherhood's flag pictures two swords and the Qur'an and a Qur'anic verse which states: "Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power, including steeds of war, to strike terror into (the hearts of) the enemies of Allah and your enemies."


I cannot see a group with a motto such as that creating a secular government.

Playboy

partyatmygaff wrote: »

The main Muslim opposition in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood.


Their main slogan is "Islam is the Solution," a mysterious slogan that excludes "infidels" such as the Christians and the Jews. The Brotherhood's flag pictures two swords and the Qur'an and a Qur'anic verse which states: "Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power, including steeds of war, to strike terror into (the hearts of) the enemies of Allah and your enemies."


I cannot see a group with a motto such as that creating a secular government.

Well things change! They have publicly commited to participating in a secular democratic process .. As it stands they dont have enough influence or support to outright win any election. The egyptain youth wont stand for the kind of government you fear. As I said earlier I travel to Egypt all the time and from my experience there is no desire within the country for an oppresive Islamic regime and certainly not now after winning such a victory against oppression.

clln

Some hope at least that it will not end up as Military regime.
all civilian leaders are sacked,both paliaments are suspended,supreme Constitutional expert keeps his though.
Arab leauge have issued statement saying congratulations to Egyptian people on their 'white revolution' (their words)

but the proviser "time will tell" above. is proably the best words of wisdom on this heady day.

BlaasForRafa

clln wrote: »

Israel must be really concerned about this, Sky just reporting that all the top Military have remained in their posts,it's an open secret they do not like the peace that Anwar Sadat died for.

I'd have major doubts over whether the Egyptian military would be at a state of readiness for a war. The IDF may be smaller but they are far better trained and disciplined than the Egyptian forces, I'd say desertion would be chronic if the Egyptian forces mobilised.

I'd say Israels focus is still on a possible summer conflict with hezbollah and/or Hamas.

Finally Congrats to the people of Egypt for peacefully deposing Mubarak, the scenes from Cairo and Alexandria have been reminiscent of East Germany and Prague in 1989.

KerranJast

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

I'd have major doubts over whether the Egyptian military would be at a state of readiness for a war. The IDF may be smaller but they are far better trained and disciplined than the Egyptian forces, I'd say desertion would be chronic if the Egyptian forces mobilised.

Neither the Israeli nor Egyptian military would want a conflict. The status quo is profitable for both sides.

partyatmygaff

Playboy wrote: »

Well things change! They have publicly commited to participating in a secular democratic process

Things change... Indeed they do but their base principles do not. Neither I nor anyone in Egypt sees their "commitment" as anything more than Taqiya (Lying for the good of Islam).

.. As it stands they dont have enough influence or support to outright win any election.

Thankfully.

The egyptain youth wont stand for the kind of government you fear.

No they won't. The problem is that there are certain members of the military who are part of the brotherhood. Evidence of this was Sadat's assassination by members of Islamist groups in the Egyptian army.

Playboy

m8 .. its a great day in the history of your country! Celebrate and be optimistic .. Leave the pessimism alone for a while until you have need of it!

wes

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Neither I nor anyone in Egypt sees their "commitment" as anything more than Taqiya (Lying for the good of Islam).

The Brotherhood are Sunni, and Taqiya is a largely Shia concept, and its for when they feel there under threat e.g. they could be killed or persecuted. The reason they had it, was that historically the Shia's were a minority amongst Sunni's and they used the concept of Taqiya, to hide themselves back in the day.

A decent summary from Wikipedia here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taqiyya

Sir Oxman

It's overwhelming seeing the pride and hope in the faces of the Egyptian people today.
I hope they get the freedoms and governance that they deserve and that they aren't robbed of the prize in the coming months.

partyatmygaff

Playboy wrote: »

m8 .. its a great day in the history of your country! Celebrate and be optimistic .. Leave the pessimism alone for a while until you have need of it!

Yes it is but there is optimism and celebration and that's all fine and well but there's still the issue of what is to follow. There is still a very real possibility that an extremist group may seize power. It had been Mubarak and his regime that had stifled these opposition groups and now that he's off the scene they may crawl out from under the woodwork.

Kazbah

Can someone explain to me in plain English why the Egyptian people wanted Mubarak to resign after so long?

clln

Brian Dobson on RTE speaking to an 'expert' has said "in effect this is a military coup?" the expert agreed.

Dobbo is almost always on the ball for saying inconveniant truths.

earlier sky news correspondent suggested that rumour is that the tape played last night was one of two pre-recorded and state TV played the wrong one?

that just strecth's belief too much.

i cannot wait to find out what really happened to make him go after he gave the two fingers to his Nation yesterday.

Overheal

Kazbah wrote: »

Can someone explain to me in plain English why the Egyptian people wanted Mubarak to resign after so long?

Since the 1981 assassination of President Anwar El Sadat, Hosni Mubarak has headed Egypt's semi-presidential republic government and is the longest serving President in Egypt's history. Mubarak and his National Democratic Party (NDP) government have maintained one-party rule under a continuous state of emergency.[31] Mubarak's government earned the support of the West and a continuation of annual aid from the United States by maintaining policies of suppression towards Islamic militants and peace with Israel.[31] Hosni Mubarak has often been compared to an Egyptian pharaoh by the media and by some of his harsher critics due to his authoritarian rule.[32]
Emergency law

Main article: Emergency law in Egypt
An emergency law (Law No. 162 of 1958) was enacted after the 1967 Six-Day War, suspended for 18 months in the early 1980s,[33] and continuously in effect since President Sadat's 1981 assassination.[34] Under the law, police powers are extended, constitutional rights suspended, censorship is legalised,[35] and the government may imprison individuals indefinitely and without reason. The law sharply limits any non-governmental political activity, including street demonstrations, non-approved political organisations, and unregistered financial donations.[33] The Mubarak government has cited the threat of terrorism in order to extend the emergency law,[34] claiming that opposition groups like the Muslim Brotherhood could come into power in Egypt if the current government did not forgo parliamentary elections and suppressed the group through actions allowed under emergency law.[36] This has led to the imprisonment of activists without trials,[37] illegal undocumented hidden detention facilities,[38][39] and rejecting university, mosque, and newspaper staff members based on their political inclination.[40] A parliamentary election in December 2010 was preceded by a media crackdown, arrests, candidate bans (particularly of the Muslim Brotherhood), and allegations of fraud involving the near unanimous victory by the ruling party in parliament.[33] Human rights organisations estimate that in 2010 between 5,000 and 10,000 people were in long-term detention without charge or trial.[41][42]
Police brutality

Main article: Law enforcement in Egypt
The deployment of plainclothes forces paid by Mubarak's ruling party, Baltageya[43] (Arabic: بلطجية‎), has been a hallmark of the Mubarak government.[43] The Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights has documented 567 cases of torture, including 167 deaths, by police that occurred between 1993 and 2007.[44] On 6 June 2010, Khaled Mohamed Saeed died under disputed circumstances in the Sidi Gaber area of Alexandria. Multiple witnesses testified that Saeed was beaten to death by the police.[45][46] Activists rallying around a Facebook page called "We are all Khaled Said" succeeded in bringing nationwide attention to the case.[47] Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, led a rally in 2010 in Alexandria against alleged abuses by the police and visited Saeed's family to offer condolences.[48]
Economic challenges

Demographic Main article: Demographics of Egypt

Population pyramid in 2005. Many of those 30 and younger are educated citizens who are having difficulties finding work.


The population was 30,083,419 in 1966,[49] which has now grown to roughly 79,000,000 people by 2008.[50] Most of this large population live in the limited spaces near the banks of the Nile River, in an area of about 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 sq mi), where the only arable land is found and competing with the need of human habitations. Quantitatively, the emerging overpopulation crisis thus led to poverty, hygiene, education, and housing issues, as well as a lack of adequate arable land.[51] In late 2010 around 40 percent of Egypt's population of just under 80 million lived on the fiscal income equivalent of roughly US$2 per day and a large part of the population relied on subsidised goods.[11]
The population growth is recent and created a youth bulge. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the basic problem Egypt has is unemployment driven by a demographic bulge: with the number of new people entering the job force at about 4 percent a year, unemployment in Egypt is almost 10 times as high for college graduates as it is for people who have gone through elementary school, particularly educated urban youth, who are precisely the people currently seen out in the streets.[52]

A poor neighbourhood in Cairo


Reform, growth, and poverty Main article: Economy of Egypt
Egypt's economy was highly centralized during the rule of former President Gamal Abdel Nasser but opened up considerably under former President Anwar Sadat and Mubarak. The city of CairoI][URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Please_clarify"]clarification needed[/URL][/I from 2004 to 2008 aggressively pursued economic reforms to attract foreign investment and facilitate GDP growth, but postponed further economic reforms because of global economic turmoil. The international economic downturn slowed Egypt's GDP growth to 4.5 percent in 2009. In 2010, analysts assessed the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif would need to restart economic reforms to attract foreign investment, boost growth, and improve economic conditions for the broader population. Despite high levels of national economic growth over the past few years, living conditions for the average Egyptian remained poor.[53]
Corruption

Main article: Crime in Egypt
Political corruption in Mubarak administration's Ministry of Interior has risen dramatically due to the increased power over the institutional system necessary to prolong the presidency.[54] The rise to power of powerful business men in the NDP in the government and the People's Assembly led to massive waves of anger during the years of Prime Ministers Ahmed Nazif's government. An example of that is Ahmed Ezz's monopolizing the steel industry in Egypt by holding more than 60 percent of the market share.[55] Aladdin Elaasar, an Egyptian biographer and an American professor, estimates that the Mubarak family is worth from $50 to $70 billion.[56][57]
The wealth of Ahmed Ezz, the former NDP Organisation Secretary, is estimated to be 18 billion Egyptian pounds;[58] The wealth of former Housing Minister Ahmed al-Maghraby is estimated to be more than 11 billion Egyptian pounds;[58] The wealth of former Minister of Tourism Zuhair Garrana is estimated to be 13 billion Egyptian pounds;[58] The wealth of former Minister of Trade and Industry, Rashid Mohamed Rashid, is estimated to be 12 billion Egyptian pounds;[58] and the wealth of former Interior Minister Habib al-Adly is estimated to be 8 billion Egyptian pounds.[58]
The perceptions of corruption and its beneficiaries being limited to businessmen with ties to the National Democratic Party have created a picture "where wealth fuels political power and political power buys wealth."[59]
During the Egyptian parliamentary election, 2010, opposition groups complained of harrassment and fraud perpetrated by the government. As such opposition and civil society activists have called for changes to a number of legal and constitutional provisions which affect elections.
In 2010, Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index report assessed Egypt with a CPI score of 3.1, based on perceptions of the degree of corruption from business people and country analysts (with 10 being clean and 0 being totally corrupt).[60]

Kazbah

I was hoping for a 1-2 liner

KerranJast

Kazbah wrote: »

I was hoping for a 1-2 liner

It's mainly a drop in the prosperity levels of the country and the youth are more aware of Western style freedoms thanks to the Internet. Throw in the nearby demonstrations in Iran, Algeria and Tunisia and you could see why there's been a heave.

Kazbah

Ok thank you.

COUCH WARRIOR

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Secular government based on Islamic principles...

What?

So what, democracies should reflect the societies they represent. Ours in Europe reflect Christian principles to a greater or lesser extent, why should it be questioned that a Arab counties verson reflect Islamic principles.

clln

Obama is now expected to make a statement at 20.00 GMT,delayed from 18.00 GMT.
i wonder what has had to be rewritten that took two hours
again hopefully the instability in Tunisia, Egypt.Jordan and who next in the Arab world will end most of all for the people of those countries in a better life.

it is a dangerous time Globally though IMO if the moment cannot be seized!
an uncontrolled fall of dictators house of cards in the mid-east might be worse than the oppression that preceeded it.

COUCH WARRIOR

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Their main slogan is "Islam is the Solution," a mysterious slogan that excludes "infidels" such as the Christians and the Jews. The Brotherhood's flag pictures two swords and thewar, to strike terror into (the hearts of) the enemies of Allah and your enemies."

Do you know the words of the Irish (or French or British) National anthem, hint it's not about dancing at crossroads. Not all Islamic movements are the same and thinking develops with time. The Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt has denounced voilence as a perversion of Islam, interesting link on the Amercan spooks view.

"In God we trust" ~ "Islam is the Solution"


http://www.politico.com/blogs/joshgerstein/0211/DNI_Clapper_Egypts_Muslim_Brotherhood_largely_secular.html

clln

COUCH WARRIOR wrote: »

The Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt has denounced voilence as a perversion of Islam,

As have every decent person of that faith COUCH to be fair about it.
the question now is will the loonies who kill in the name of Islam who win the day?

we can at least hope not!

Mr.Micro

clln wrote: »

Obama is now expected to make a statement at 20.00 GMT,delayed from 18.00 GMT.
i wonder what has had to be rewritten that took two hours
again hopefully the instability in Tunisia, Egypt.Jordan and who next in the Arab world will end most of all for the people of those countries in a better life.

Will this really suit the Americans, this spreading democracy where the US may lose its influence over the ruling dictators who never say no to Uncle Sam?

clln

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Will this really suit the Americans, this spreading democracy where the US may lose its influence over the ruling dictators who never say no to Uncle Sam?

No it will not help America at all,but that is proably a good thing for the US,IMO
the support for the Shah of Iran by America led to the hostage crisis and hatred towards the US that has lasted to this day.
Obama seems to have handled this better than the demise of the Shah was,but will Egyptians forgive America for propping up Mubarak for so long?

COUCH WARRIOR

clln wrote: »

...an uncontrolled fall of dictators house of cards in the mid-east might be worse than the oppression that preceeded it.

It's a fear, esp. with the Western powers sticking their noses in with the sole goal business as usual and damn the will of the people

Florida GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, released a statement urging "the unequivocal rejection of any involvement by the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists" in the transition of power.

Egyptians should reject those who "seek to exploit and hijack these events to gain power, oppress the Egyptian people, and do great harm to Egypt's relationship with the United States, Israel, and other free nations," she said

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/02/11/egypt.us.reaction/

Mr.Micro

clln wrote: »

No it will not help America at all,but that is proably a good thing for the US,IMO
the support for the Shah of Iran by America led to the hostage crisis and hatred towards the US that has lasted to this day.
Obama seems to have handled this better than the demise of the Shah was,but will Egyptians forgive America for propping up Mubarak for so long?

Probably not all of them. Maybe Saudi Arabia next, then the US would surely cack themselves...... Hey lets not take this democracy thing too far

clln

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Hey lets not take this democracy thing too far

Quite right,look what happened to Gorbachov when he tried it!

COUCH WARRIOR

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

...I'd say desertion would be chronic if the Egyptian forces mobilised...

As you say Israel is militarily far stronger, but this sort of casual racisim is what lead to the pointless allied attempt at Gallipoli.

partyatmygaff

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

I'd have major doubts over whether the Egyptian military would be at a state of readiness for a war. The IDF may be smaller but they are far better trained and disciplined than the Egyptian forces, I'd say desertion would be chronic if the Egyptian forces mobilised.

The Egyptian military does not wish for a war (Apparently) but that is not to say they poorly equipped or in any way unprepared. I may be wrong but I suspect you are slightly ignorant of their military capability but are just basing your assumptions on "Arab vs Israeli". Egypt's military is the most powerful of the region. I don't see how you came to the conclusion that desertion would be a problem in the Egyptian army either.

gurramok

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Finally Congrats to the people of Egypt for peacefully deposing Mubarak, the scenes from Cairo and Alexandria have been reminiscent of East Germany and Prague in 1989.

Ain't it great that democracy for the people prevailed against state murder and severe repression?

Glad you are happy for them.

Mr.Micro

gurramok wrote: »

Ain't it great that democracy for the people prevailed against state murder and severe repression?

Glad you are happy for them.

I hope though that we are not all premature in expecting, nay hoping that democracy will emerge in Egypt as the path could be tortuous. Its a way to go yet, getting rid of Mubarak was the first step. It all depends on what happens next?

partyatmygaff

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I hope though that we are not all premature in expecting, nay hoping that democracy will emerge in Egypt as the path could be tortuous. Its a way to go yet, getting rid of Mubarak was the first step. It all depends on what happens next?

No one knows what will happen. Egypt hasn't achieved democracy yet. In fact technically speaking they've abolished a false "democracy" and replaced it with military rule. Time will tell.

BlaasForRafa

COUCH WARRIOR wrote: »

As you say Israel is militarily far stronger, but this sort of casual racisim is what lead to the pointless allied attempt at Gallipoli.

Yeah....maybe you should read up on the 6 day war and the Yom Kippur war before you start playing the rascism card.