Cork South Central

Brussels Sprout

5 Seater:

The 5 sitting TDs are all running:

Micheal Martin (FF)
Micheal McGrath (FF)
Simon Coveney (FG)
Deirdre Clune (FG)
Ciaran Lynch (Lab)

Also confirmed running will be:

Jerry Buttimer (FG Senator)
Paula Desmond (Lab Councillor)
Dan Boyle (GP Senator)
Chris O' Leary (SF Councillor) (formerly independent, formerly GP)
Mick Finn (Ind Councillor)

Realistically with the developments of the last 2 weeks, 4 of the sitting TDs are pretty sure to win their seats with a huge battle for McGrath's seat between Buttimer, O' Leary, Desmond and possibly even McGrath himself.

A Red-C poll done at the start of the year had the following predictions:

FF 9.9%
FG 39.5%
LP 23.0%
GP 7.8%
SF 12.8%
OTH 7.0%

It should be noted that this was conducted before the recent upheavals in FF which should definitely see an increase in their candidates numbers in this constituency.

How do you see this one playing out?

Kimono-Girl

i really couldn't call this one,


i don't think that poll comes close to accurate though...

Balmed Out

last time out ff got 44% of 1st preference, fg 28, labour 9%, greens 8 and sf 5.

Itll be close but i think with the loser out last time ff on the 6th count and the 5th count knocking dan boyle a green and martin becoming leader of ff if i was to bet id say it may stay as is

omerin

That's a terrible line up. Clearly on Dan Boyle's family crest must be the words - if first you don't succeed then try and try again. No one wants you Dan, feck off. Failure of MM to get elected would be an early Christmas present Coveney is a clueless ass and the rest are a bit meh

Badabing

1 FF 2FG 1LAB last seat between McGrath and Buttimer. Boyle to lose deposit.

bensboys

Just talking about this in work during the week, I fancy McGrath to hold onto his seat, can't see FG getting 3 or labour getting 2. Dan Boyle will also pay the price for GP in government.

McGrath is probably the front-runner for the 5th seat.

steelcityblues

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF

CoalBucket

Here is how I see it going.

FG 2 SEATS - Simon Coveney will easily be elected and his transfers will see Deirdre Clune over the line. Jerry Buttimer will put in a strong performance but not make it.

LAB 1 SEAT - Ciaran Lynch will be elected. Desmond will get support in her own area but not much outside that.

SF 1 SEAT - Chris O'Leary will take a seat. Being a former green he will take a large vote from Dan Boyle. He will also take votes from traditional FF supporters who can't move themselves to vote FG. That with his own core support will see him over the line leaving the two FF candidates to fight it out.

FF 1 SEAT - Martin will hold onto his seat post his leadership win.

Greens - Dan Boyle will probably buy a new laptop to continue tweeting

BTW Mick Finn is FF through and through. He was secretary for former FF TD John Dennehy. He is about as independant as Jackie Healy Rae.

jank

CoalBucket wrote: »

Here is how I see it going.

FG 2 SEATS - Simon Coveney will easily be elected and his transfers will see Deirdre Clune over the line. Jerry Buttimer will put in a strong performance but not make it.

LAB 1 SEAT - Ciaran Lynch will be elected. Desmond will get support in her own area but not much outside that.

SF 1 SEAT - Chris O'Leary will take a seat. Being a former green he will take a large vote from Dan Boyle. He will also take votes from traditional FF supporters who can't move themselves to vote FG. That with his own core support will see him over the line leaving the two FF candidates to fight it out.

FF 1 SEAT - Martin will hold onto his seat post his leadership win.

Greens - Dan Boyle will probably buy a new laptop to continue tweeting

BTW Mick Finn is FF through and through. He was secretary for former FF TD John Dennehy. He is about as independant as Jackie Healy Rae.

Yeap that will be it alright.

Amazing really. FF had 3 out of 5 there before the 2007 election. Now they will only have one and that of the FF leader.

nesf

steelcityblues wrote: »

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF

Not a hope of SF taking a seat over Labour in this constituency. I'd say McGrath (FF) vs Chris O'Leary (SF) for the last seat and it could be tight.

Balmed Out

Cant see Sinn Fein taking a seat. Green voters would typically not be very supportive of Sinn fein and I reckon o'leary wont be carrying over any substantial amount of support.
I thought Cremin did well to poll over 5% last time out and theyll improve that but not enough especially as they wont do too well in transfers

My money says itll stay as is with lynch coming over the line a lot lot easier

jank

nesf wrote: »

Not a hope of SF taking a seat over Labour in this constituency. I'd say McGrath (FF) vs Chris O'Leary (SF) for the last seat and it could be tight.

No way FF will get close to two in this race. There will be enough 1st prefs for one FF seat but not two. SF will be a definite I think. Chris o Leary has a high profile here as well.

Rebel1977

Can't see FG getting 3 seats my prediction would be
Coveney
Clune
Martin
Lynch
McGrath

Dan Boyle has no chance, Chris O'Leary deflected from Green Party to sinn fein since the last election

Eliot Rosewater

Do people fancy Buttimer?

The combined government party vote in the 2007 was over 52%. I imagine this will take a hitting, especially Boyle's vote (he managed over 8% first preference last time). I could see Fine Gael taking a lot of those.

Rebel1977

Buttimer could be a dark horse for the final seat, Coveney should be first FG to be elected in this constituency, if Mcgrath pools badly Buttimer might get ahead, one thing in McGraths favour is he openly backed Martin early on in the leadership battle

Dob74

Clune, Lynch, Martin will get in, then Buttimer
Last seat between Desmond, Coveney and McGrath, all carrigline based.
Transfers will decide, Mick Finn to be in the lead for the also rans.
O'Leary to out poll Boyle.

Eliot Rosewater

Yeah, transfers will be very important which is why I think SF don't have a chance: they're generally immune to them.

Balmed Out

Whats Buttimer like does anyone know?
Supporting fine gael last time round and expecting clune and coveney to get in I gave him my first preference last time round. Anytime since ive heard of him its always in relation to complaining about something rather then actively doing something. Would have liked to see macgonagile get the ticket instead, seems a very hardworking young councillor and itd be good to have a young female td coming through.
We really dont have great candidates in south central I think.

Rebel1977

Not sure what Buttimer is like seen him speak a few times in the seanad and seems to know his stuff, also he was on operation transformation last year!

nesf

jank wrote: »

No way FF will get close to two in this race. There will be enough 1st prefs for one FF seat but not two. SF will be a definite I think. Chris o Leary has a high profile here as well.

In a normal constituency I'd agree with you, with Martin as leader this may prove to be exceptional to the national trend, similar to how Mayo was for FG when Kenny had a shot at Taoiseach.

logonmar

Presuming Martin gets a boost he's still unlikely to have a quota on 1st count.
If that proves to be the case McGrath will be well behind Martin and really impossible to see where he would get the 2nd, 3rd preferences etc. to get past the line. Thus Martin, Coveney, Clune & Lynch with final seat between FG/Lab/Ind but not FF

CoalBucket

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Yeah, transfers will be very important which is why I think SF don't have a chance: they're generally immune to them.

The transfers are going to play a massive part in this election. I can understand why you think Sinn Fein would not have a chance in this regard but I think that will also have a detremental effect on McGrath.

I think most people would agree that Coveney, Lynch, Clune and Martin will be elected at this stage, the last seat is really wide open.

It looks like being a very interesting election in Cork South Central.

Balmed Out

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cork_South_Central_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)

Last time round fianna fail had 3 candidates and came very very close to getting three seats. With two candidates instead of 3 and martin being ff leader then I really would be surprised if we dont have everything staying as is.

Last time round there had been enough dodgy revelations of coruption and ineptitude that I for one was surprised how well they did so you gotta think they have a fair amount of hardcore supporters in the area.

nesf

logonmar wrote: »

Presuming Martin gets a boost he's still unlikely to have a quota on 1st count.
If that proves to be the case McGrath will be well behind Martin and really impossible to see where he would get the 2nd, 3rd preferences etc. to get past the line. Thus Martin, Coveney, Clune & Lynch with final seat between FG/Lab/Ind but not FF

Word in the constituency until now was that McGrath was putting a lot of pressure on Martin and was really pushing him for first place in terms of FF votes. I wouldn't count on him being that far behind Martin when the votes come in.

What it'll come down to is transfers and whether Martin picks them up as leader of FF over and above his position as a FF candidate. McGrath might scrape through on a "least worst" option basis transfer wise if he's vying with the SF candidate for the fifth seat. What it really comes down to is whether Labour poll well enough to have their candidate, not McGrath vying for that last seat, though traditionally Labour have never been that strong in the constituency so it's awkward to forecast.

nesf

Balmed Out wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cork_South_Central_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)

Last time round fianna fail had 3 candidates and came very very close to getting three seats. With two candidates instead of 3 and martin being ff leader then I really would be surprised if we dont have everything staying as is.

Last time round there had been enough dodgy revelations of coruption and ineptitude that I for one was surprised how well they did so you gotta think they have a fair amount of hardcore supporters in the area.

Nah, none of the corruption allegations touched on the Cork branch of FF or the Munster branch in general. It could very easily have been seen as a Dublin problem and that "our lads are alright". Etc.

Brussels Sprout

David McCarthy will also be contesting the election. He's an independent running on a platform of political and public sector reform.

http://corkpolitics.ie/wp/?p=6858

http://www.votedavidmccarthy.com/index.php/

padraic83

in the last election, mcgrath as a first time canditate polled over 9000 votes.
even if FF result falls 40% he is still looking at 5400.

Along being a transfer friendly canditate i think it will e as is... coveny to top then martin lynch clune and mcgrath

jank

padraic83 wrote: »

in the last election, mcgrath as a first time canditate polled over 9000 votes.
even if FF result falls 40% he is still looking at 5400.

Along being a transfer friendly canditate i think it will e as is... coveny to top then martin lynch clune and mcgrath

I dont know, if that is true than Cork South Central will not have changed its Dail seats at all. Would this be the only place where you are going to have 2 FF TD's?

I am still sticking to - 1 FF + 1 SF. It will be close but cant see the votes there for 2 FF

pow wow

Buttimer is great to deal with and a decent guy from personal experience, shame he's FG .

My prediction is 2 FG, 1 LAB, 1 FF and 1 IND or SF. I'm unsure on the last one as I hear a lot of support for SF on 96fm so it must be true :rolleyes:

jank

After doing a bit more reading on this John Dennehy got about 5000 1st prefs last time and Dan Boyle got 4000 1st prefs. Where will Boyle's vote go? Where will John Dennehy's votes go? I think Labour and SF will get them.

deanh

jank wrote: »

After doing a bit more reading on this John Dennehy got about 5000 1st prefs last time and Dan Boyle got 4000 1st prefs. Where will Boyle's vote go? Where will John Dennehy's votes go? I think Labour and SF will get them.

Dennehy's votes came mainly from the Togher, Glasheen, Bishopstown area which is Buttimer's base, although some will go to Labour and SF.