Carlow-Kilkenny

thetonynator

5 seater.

Sitting TD's:

John McGuinness (FF)
Bobby Aylward (FF)
M.J. Nolan (FF)
Phil Hogan (FG)
Mary White (Green)

Opinion Poll in the Kilkenny People on Wednesday gives a very good insight into the current situation.

THE battle lines have been drawn in what promises to be the most intensive and hardest fought general election in Carlow-Kilkenny since the State was founded.
Two of the country's best known politicians, Bobby Aylward TD and John McGuinness TD are fighting for their political survival as an opinion poll published today in this paper and running on pages 7, 8, 9 and 11 tells the real story of those who are electable and those who will not make it.

The Fianna Fail heavyweights are neck and neck at 11% (McGuinness) and 10% (Aylward) respectively in their bid for re-election. It coincides with a collapse in the party's vote of 47.7% in 2007 to just 24% in the poll carried out last week in 40 different parts of Carlow and Kilkenny.
And both men find themselves in opposite camps in the race to elect a new leader of their party. Deputy John McGuinness is backing Michael Martin TD while Deputy Bobby Aylward has yet to make any public comment but he has a strong personal relationship with Brian Lenihan and it would be highly unlikely for him to vote against Mr Lenihan in today's vote.
The findings of the poll which were carried out by the Kilkenny People team and by students from Ormonde College, Ormonde Road, Kilkenny over a week are at odds with telephone polls taken over the last number of months which show Fianna Fail at between 10% and 14%.
This poll undertaken door-to-door at 40 different points in both counties is a fair reflection of how the electorate feel, at present, about the candidates and the parties.
Fine Gael have 31% of the vote in the poll with 20% of people still undecided on how they will vote for but who are determined to have their say on the day.
Already being tipped for a senior ministry in any new government, Deputy Phil Hogan, the party's spokesman on the environment, is a safe bet along with Kilkenny running mate, Sen John Paul Phelan.
That's because the Carlow based Fine Gael candidate, Cllr Pat Deering has so far failed to ignite in his campaign and give him a real chance of taking a seat for the party and for Carlow.
Because of the voting arrangement in place for Fine Gael candidates, the gap between the three men will be much smaller on election day than presented in the poll.
The other major winners in the poll are Sinn Fein and Labour. Labour through either Ann Phelan, Graignamanagh or Des Hurley, Carlow town will take a seat and on the percentages will be fighting for the final fifth seat as well.
Sinn Fein have 15% of the vote and if all those votes transferred intact from Cllr Katheen Funchion, Kilkenny (6%) to Cllr John Cassin, Carlow (9%) they would win a seat but their voting pact does not take into account local loyalties and county bias.
Like their coalition partners, the Green Party is on the ropes in the constituency with hard working Minister for State Mary White, very likely to lose her seat although her votes will have a say in where the last seat goes.
Conor MacLiam of the United Socialist Party (USP) who only announced his candidacy a few weeks ago really hasn't had time to connect with the electorate and this has affected any chance he had of taking a seat.
The poll also predicts that there will be a higher turn-out of voters this time around than there was in 2007 and traditionally that suits parties other than Fianna Fail.
Voting patterns among the older section of the coumunity have not changed in many areas with a signifcant number of older people still willing to vote Fianna Fail and when asked what party they would vote for said not Fianna fail yet ended up giving their first preference to either John McGuinness or Bobby Alyward.

FG 31%
Lab 22%
FF 24%
SF 15%
Green 4%
USP 3%
Other 1%

Candidates:

Phil Hogan FG
John Paul Phelan FG
Pat Deering FG
Ann Phelan Lab
Des Hurley Lab
John McGuinness FF
Bobby Aylward FF
Jennifer Murnane O'Connor FF
Mary White Green
Kathleen Funchion SF
John Cassin SF
Conor MacLiam USP
Noel Walsh IND



My thoughts: FF are mad to be running 3 candidates, they'll struggle to take two, one looking more likely. FG more or less guaranteed 2, doubt they will take a third. Labour definitely 1, maybe two if things go bad for FF, and maybe one for SF.

Einhard

thetonynator wrote: »

5 seater.

Sitting TD's:

John McGuinness (FF)
Bobby Aylward (FF)
M.J. Nolan (FF)
Phil Hogan (FG)
Mary White (Green)

Opinion Poll in the Kilkenny People on Wednesday gives a very good insight into the current situation.






FG 31%
Lab 22%
FF 24%
SF 15%
Green 4%
USP 3%
Other 1%

Candidates:

Phil Hogan FG
John Paul Phelan FG
Pat Deering FG
Ann Phelan Lab
Des Hurley Lab
John McGuinness FF
Bobby Aylward FF
Jennifer Murnane O'Connor FF
Mary White Green
Kathleen Funchion SF
John Cassin SF
Conor MacLiam USP
Noel Walsh IND



My thoughts: FF are mad to be running 3 candidates, they'll struggle to take two, one looking more likely. FG more or less guaranteed 2, doubt they will take a third. Labour definitely 1, maybe two if things go bad for FF, and maybe one for SF.

That poll seems seriously out of line with all the national polls, which show FF in low double digits, and Labour far ahead. That would make me somewhat suspicious of the methodology involved, and of the ability of those involved in the polling. That's nothing against the students of Ormonde College, but it's likely not a coincidence that all the other polls, showing much different results, were carried out by professional, experienced pollsters. So, from the off, I'd take the KK People findings with a pinch of salt.

Having said all that, I agree about FF's strategy. It's absolutely crazy to run 3 candidates when they'll struggle to retain the two seats they alread have. I think though, that both Alyward and McGuinnes have a slim chance of getting re-elected. It helps that they have two different constituencies, from different parts of Kilkenny. Hogan and Phelan will both get in for FG I think, and Ann Phelan will probably do the business for Labour. The last seat is more difficult to predict. If I'm right, all those I've mentioned are Kilkenny based, so that might leave an opening for mary White as a Carlow based candidate.

So my predictions, which no doubt will come back to haunt me:

McGuinness
Hogan
JP Phelan
Ann Phelan
Mary White/Pat Deering

I don't think SF will gain a seat this time. Just from personal experience, a fair proportion of those who express support for the party won't actually bother to turn up at the polling station. That's not to be pejorative; I think it's a handicap for them. Also, the ULA will eat into their vote somewhat.

thetonynator

Einhard wrote: »

That poll seems seriously out of line with all the national polls, which show FF in low double digits, and Labour far ahead. That would make me somewhat suspicious of the methodology involved, and of the ability of those involved in the polling. That's nothing against the students of Ormonde College, but it's likely not a coincidence that all the other polls, showing much different results, were carried out by professional, experienced pollsters. So, from the off, I'd take the KK People findings with a pinch of salt.

Having said all that, I agree about FF's strategy. It's absolutely crazy to run 3 candidates when they'll struggle to retain the two seats they alread have. I think though, that both Alyward and McGuinnes have a slim chance of getting re-elected. It helps that they have two different constituencies, from different parts of Kilkenny. Hogan and Phelan will both get in for FG I think, and Ann Phelan will probably do the business for Labour. The last seat is more difficult to predict. If I'm right, all those I've mentioned are Kilkenny based, so that might leave an opening for mary White as a Carlow based candidate.

So my predictions, which no doubt will come back to haunt me:

McGuinness
Hogan
JP Phelan
Ann Phelan
Mary White/Pat Deering

I don't think SF will gain a seat this time. Just from personal experience, a fair proportion of those who express support for the party won't actually bother to turn up at the polling station. That's not to be pejorative; I think it's a handicap for them. Also, the ULA will eat into their vote somewhat.

Kilkenny is traditionally a FF stronghold, 47% of the vote in 2007. Generally they would have a much higher rating here than in most other places. The individual electoral area polls are dodgy due to small numbers, but overall its a good indication. Also, it was noted in the article, that a lot of people siad they would not vote FF, but when asked what candidate they would vote for said Mcguinness or Aylward. the % results given are on the basis of candidates scores, not party scores, i should have pointed that out!


My own predictions would be:

Hogan
Phelan
Mcguinness
Aylward
Hurley


but if things go bad for FF, then Funchion or Phelan should take the other seat.

Edit: didnt see your point about the carlow based candidate. White hasn't a chance in hell of being elected, but Des Hurley and John Cassin are carlow based, so i would say that Hurley is more likely to take the first labour seat.

femur61

Looking at the SE boards apparantly some of the candidates pick up voters and bring them to the polling station. I've heard rumours over the years which may explain why FF get so many votes. They won't get mine as I look at my van which now has ceased to be used thanks to FF and thanks to the Greens now can only be used exclusively for work.

Take Back Carlow Kilkenny

it's a pity you can't get hear these candidates in a public debate either in Carlow or Kilkenny.They bombard my letterbox with flyers but I would like to see them arguing out their cases in front of the public.Would help me to make a decision on who to pick.

UDAWINNER

its a mystery to me how anyone could vote fianna fail or the greens in carlow seeing that MJ Nolan never done anthing for the town.Just look at at all the businesses closing down: empire records, byrnes, bargain books, buzzs bar, cosmo browns, etc. Not to mention the proposed gateway that will never happen. Just hope people from kilkenny take note before voting for aylward or mcguiness: a right pair of twats.

thetonynator

UDAWINNER wrote: »

its a mystery to me how anyone could vote fianna fail or the greens in carlow seeing that MJ Nolan never done anthing for the town.Just look at at all the businesses closing down: empire records, byrnes, bargain books, buzzs bar, cosmo browns, etc. Not to mention the proposed gateway that will never happen. Just hope people from kilkenny take note before voting for aylward or mcguiness: a right pair of twats.

Well Nolan is retiring, the phrase good riddance comes to mind! But at least one of Aylward and McGuinness will get in, if not both unfortunately. There is way too much party loyalty to FF in Kilkenny.

andyman

I can't call this 100%. McGuinness, Hogan and JP Phelan are moreorless in. The remaining two will be very interesting though. Will be a four-way fight between Ann Phelan, Aylward, White and Hurley I reckon.

thetonynator

Einhard wrote: »

That poll seems seriously out of line with all the national polls, which show FF in low double digits, and Labour far ahead. That would make me somewhat suspicious of the methodology involved, and of the ability of those involved in the polling. That's nothing against the students of Ormonde College, but it's likely not a coincidence that all the other polls, showing much different results, were carried out by professional, experienced pollsters. So, from the off, I'd take the KK People findings with a pinch of salt.

Just looked up the Red C Constituency Poll from the start of the year, put FF at 24.1% in Carlow Kilkenny at the start of the year, meaning the KK People poll is in line with it.

Byron85

thetonynator wrote: »

Well Nolan is retiring, the phrase good riddance comes to mind! But at least one of Aylward and McGuinness will get in, if not both unfortunately. There is way too much party loyalty to FF in Kilkenny.

His sister was my school principle in secondary school and i'm pretty sure he still lives in my home town, Borris, although I could be wrong.

Mary White also lives in my town, well just outside it, and I can safely say that she is a goner. Everyone in the place is disgusted with her.

peabutler

FF will get 2. Absolutely full sure of it.

thetonynator

Phil hogan first off the mark with the posters in kilkenny today. No sign of enda on them, and phelan and deerings names would need a magnifying glass to be read. . . :P i like the find gael slogan though. . Let's get ireland working!

femur61

I don't understand they loyality FF have. Businesses are closing down like its the latest fad. I'll vote for Hogan. Apparantly, he'd ferry people to the voting stations from deprived areas. Just a rumour but its one that has been going around for years

thetonynator

femur61 wrote: »

I don't understand they loyality FF have. Businesses are closing down like its the latest fad. I'll vote for Hogan. Apparantly, he'd ferry people to the voting stations from deprived areas. Just a rumour but its one that has been going around for years

a lot of candidates do that in local elections, not so much in general elections but i'm sure it happens all the same.

Mr.Micro

Byron85 wrote: »

His sister was my school principle in secondary school and i'm pretty sure he still lives in my home town, Borris, although I could be wrong.

Mary White also lives in my town, well just outside it, and I can safely say that she is a goner. Everyone in the place is disgusted with her.

I certainly hope so, absolutely useless. Carlow known for its apathy needs to get its act together and get rid of FF and the Green.

Laois_Man

Despite my username, I do now live in Carlow town and reguardless of the quality of candidates representing Carlow, I will vote for Carlow candidates and ONLY Carlow candidates (Not all of them though) and I would encourage others in the Carlow part of the constituency to do likewise - Even if you only vote on a Party level rather than an individual level....and many would say, voting on an individual local level is half of what's wrong with our political system anyway!


Carlow based candidates are:

SF John Cassin
FG Pat Deering
LAB Des Hurley
FF Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor
GP Mary White

I am hopeful that whoever gets elected will bring about electrol reform and that this is the very last general election where Carlow and Kilkenny will be bungled together like this (and Laois & Offaly in my original home constituency too for that matter)

For what it's worth, my predictions for the entire constituency (which is not necessarily the result I want to see):

Hogan
Phelan
Aylward
McGuinness
Deering

Thats's 3 FG's & 2 FF's

Nobody from Labour returned - Séamus Pattison has been the only labour candidate to get elected in this constituency for the last 55 years and I don't expect this to change this time either!

Mr.Micro

I note in Carlow that the FF candidate's posters have a tiny FF logo almost impossible to see. All the other parties have bold and big logos FG, SF, Labour.

FF are clearly cowardly and ashamed and cannot even put a visible Party logo on the posters. Contemptible is one of the nicer words I would use. So much for sneery Martin standing by FF;s record when its candidates cannot even show what cowardly party they represent. Would any person expect anything less from FF?

thetonynator

Laois_Man wrote: »

Despite my username, I do now live in Carlow town and reguardless of the quality of candidates representing Carlow, I will vote for Carlow candidates and ONLY Carlow candidates (Not all of them though) and I would encourage others in the Carlow part of the constituency to do likewise - Even if you only vote on a Party level rather than an individual level....and many would say, voting on an individual local level is half of what's wrong with our political system anyway!


Carlow based candidates are:

SF John Cassin
FG Pat Deering
LAB Des Hurley
FF Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor
GP Mary White

I am hopeful that whoever gets elected will bring about electrol reform and that this is the very last general election where Carlow and Kilkenny will be bungled together like this (and Laois & Offaly in my original home constituency too for that matter)

For what it's worth, my predictions for the entire constituency (which is not necessarily the result I want to see):

Hogan
Phelan
Aylward
McGuinness
Deering

Thats's 3 FG's & 2 FF's

Nobody from Labour returned - Séamus Pattison has been the only labour candidate to get elected in this constituency for the last 55 years and I don't expect this to change this time either!

A labour candidate will be elected before Deering will, probably Hurley but it could go either way I'd say. With a bit of luck, sinn feins transfers won't work out and they won't get a candidate elected.

thetonynator

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I note in Carlow that the FF candidate's posters have a tiny FF logo almost impossible to see. All the other parties have bold and big logos FG, SF, Labour.

FF are clearly cowardly and ashamed and cannot even put a visible Party logo on the posters. Contemptible is one of the nicer words I would use. So much for sneery Martin standing by FF;s record when its candidates cannot even show what cowardly party they represent. Would any person expect anything less from FF?

John McGuinness hasn't even got the logo, he just has Vote 2 Aylward and Vote 3 Murnane-O'Connor written at the bottom in tiny writing.

Mr.Micro

thetonynator wrote: »

John McGuinness hasn't even got the logo, he just has Vote 2 Aylward and Vote 3 Murnane-O'Connor written at the bottom in tiny writing.

It is truly despicable IMO. One would almost think that the ballot cards would be the same with the Party blocked out. Underhand. Will the other parties ask FF candidates why are they ashamed of the party they claim to represent?

femur61

Bedises no visible logo on John McGuiness placrd he is wearing a blue shirt, maybe he's trying to tell us something!

thetonynator

RedC poll on wednesday predicted 1 FF seat, 3 FG and 1 Lab for Carlow Kilkenny.

So McGuinness, Phelan, Hogan, Deering and Phelan?

Damer

well I'm a Kilkenny voter and my main dilemma is who to put at the very bottom of my ballot paper FF or SF!
I'll be disgusted if that FF shower even get one re-elected, but I fear that's just what's going to happen, how bad do things have to get before people wake up and stop voting FF just because their parents did.

thetonynator

Damer wrote: »

well I'm a Kilkenny voter and my main dilemma is who to put at the very bottom of my ballot paper FF or SF!
I'll be disgusted if that FF shower even get one re-elected, but I fear that's just what's going to happen, how bad do things have to get before people wake up and stop voting FF just because their parents did.

You don't have to select them all, you can leave the FF and SF candidates out! (and Socialist while your at it!)

Damer

yes I know i can but I like to go all the way to the bottom!

the long lad

I'm surprised nobody is mentioning Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor. She got over 1000 votes in the local elections at a time when FF were almost as unpopular as they are now. the fact that she's young and a new candidate will help her retain the loyal FF voters who were contemplating a change. she's a good parish-pump politician means she'll draw a big town vote. that's not to say she'll be elected, but she's got some chance of taking the 5th seat.

that 5th seat is a toss up. hurley got less first pref votes than cassin in the locals, just got in on transfers. i hope there's a carlow candidate, white hasn't a hope, deering should have a chance but won't get a big carlow town vote, the others will probably take votes from each other.

my prediction (in this order)
mcguinness
hogan
phelan
aylward
ann phelan

skippy5

Your spot on think Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor
wil pick up a lot of votes because she is popular around carlow which would be a strong ff area and could be there with a shout up until the very end. Really she is the strongest canadate in the Carlow area. If ff support had not of dropped so much she would breeze in.

thetonynator

the long lad wrote: »

I'm surprised nobody is mentioning Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor. She got over 1000 votes in the local elections at a time when FF were almost as unpopular as they are now. the fact that she's young and a new candidate will help her retain the loyal FF voters who were contemplating a change. she's a good parish-pump politician means she'll draw a big town vote. that's not to say she'll be elected, but she's got some chance of taking the 5th seat.

that 5th seat is a toss up. hurley got less first pref votes than cassin in the locals, just got in on transfers. i hope there's a carlow candidate, white hasn't a hope, deering should have a chance but won't get a big carlow town vote, the others will probably take votes from each other.

my prediction (in this order)
mcguinness
hogan
phelan
aylward
ann phelan

Mcguinness hasnt a chnace in hell of taking the forst seat! Phil hogan will easily take the first one!

I see your point about the carlow candidates, it's possible that des hurley will take the seat and ann phelan wont take one?

I dont think cassin will get it, he would require another carlow candidate to be eliminated (deering maybe) before him to get the transfers, which i dont think will happen.

takun

I'd say her problem is she has very low name recognition in Kilkenny (I never heard of her till she showed up on the list of candidates), making it unlikely she'll get enough in the way of transfers from the other two (Kilkenny based) FF candidates.

They are unlikely to have the big surpluses to pass around that they had in the past, and are relying heavily on a personal vote to get them past the post. That sort of vote is just as likely to transfer locally as along party lines, maybe more so.

If she was to get in it's likely to be as the third FF seat. Not happening.

takun

thetonynator wrote: »

Mcguinness hasnt a chnace in hell of taking the forst seat! .

You are right. And it makes me very happy.

the long lad

fair point actually, hogan should top the pole. i think the first 4 are dead certs anyway. i don't think hurley will get in, but that's only from talking to a couple of people who sound like they know more than me. i just think the carlow candidates will take votes from each other, while ann phelan will pick up the kk transfers. it's gonna be very tight for that last seat though.