Carlow-Kilkenny

the long lad · 06-02-2011 12:33am

takun wrote: »

I'd say her problem is she has very low name recognition in Kilkenny (I never heard of her till she showed up on the list of candidates), making it unlikely she'll get enough in the way of transfers from the other two (Kilkenny based) FF candidates.

They are unlikely to have the big surpluses to pass around that they had in the past, and are relying heavily on a personal vote to get them past the post. That sort of vote is just as likely to transfer locally as along party lines, maybe more so.

If she was to get in it's likely to be as the third FF seat. Not happening.

she hasn't a hope of getting in as the third FF candidate per se, her best shot is as the first (and only) carlow candidate.

thetonynator · 06-02-2011 12:43am

the long lad wrote: »

she hasn't a hope of getting in as the third FF candidate per se, her best shot is as the first (and only) carlow candidate.

I agree, FF are going to struggle to take 2, never mind 3! Latest RedC put them at 1., which would prob be Mcguinness.

The Carlow candidates will pass their transfers around as they get eliminated, and it might be enough to scrape either Hurley, Deering or Cassin in.

One thing which will not benefit Ann Phelan, is that being a graig based candidate, shes nearly carlow already, and wont benefit from kk transfers. That said, Labour are tipped to be very transfer friendly in this election anyway . .

takun · 06-02-2011 12:45am

I think Ann Phelan will take the last seat. I've money saying it too.

Reasons?

1. She is from the same general area as Mary White (toast), and the greens traditionally transfer well to Labour - so I think she will pick up a major chunk of the disenchanted Green vote.

2. She is Kilkenny based - but just. She could throw a stone to Carlow, so will probably pick up transfers from both counties.

3. I think Fine Geal will have a fair few surplus votes to throw around after Phil Hogan and John Paul Phelan are elected, some of which will stay local rather than going to the Carlow FG candidate - I think she could get a fair few of those.

4. People who say there is no labour vote in Kilkenny are wrong. They just have not had a chance for ages. Seamus Pattison was last elected in 1997. Their offerings were kind of weak plus after he went, there was the swing to FF and a lot of his votes went to John McGuinness, who sells himself as something of a champion of the people - those votes are now looking for a new home and will I think go toward labour.

5. There is still a woman's vote.

skippy5 · 06-02-2011 12:50am

I dont think she will get in either, but she could surprise a few, mj wasnt the most popular but always got in I think she will get the best out off the carlow ff vote

thetonynator · 06-02-2011 1:03am

skippy5 wrote: »

I dont think she will get in either, but she could surprise a few, mj wasnt the most popular but always got in I think she will get the best out off the carlow ff vote

I presume you mean Murnane-O'Connor and not Ann Phelan yeah?

Got a bit mixed up as the post above was about Ann Phelan.

lasteka · 06-02-2011 1:09am

John McGuiness has the FF:mad::mad: logo on his poster but its white on a beige background.Almost impossible to see.. Not a bit of green on the poster anywhere.. Maybe he's ashamed of his party:):).I wonder why??:mad::mad:

sonic85 · 06-02-2011 7:04pm

any independants running in the carlow/kilkenny area? there was a man on KCLR the other day - i think he was on sue nuns show anybody know who he is?

jay gatsby · 07-02-2011 3:00pm

skippy5 wrote: »

I dont think she will get in either, but she could surprise a few, mj wasnt the most popular but always got in I think she will get the best out off the carlow ff vote

Murnane O Connor is definitely not to be written off completely, while the party may not be popular she romped home in the last local election. She definitely has very strong support in the town and most people would say that she has worked very hard for local people. Don't know if her campaign will be strong enough to get her elected but she is definitely in the mix if Carlow looks like returning a candidate

takun · 07-02-2011 3:08pm

Really, really don't see it happening. However, if she does poll strongly it may be that her transfers could get Liam Aylward over the line for the last seat.

thetonynator · 08-02-2011 12:18am

takun wrote: »

Really, really don't see it happening. However, if she does poll strongly it may be that her transfers could get Liam Aylward over the line for the last seat.

If he was running they might. However, considering it's bobby aylward this time. . . :P ah they're one and the same anyway! I agree with you though, really can't see murnane o'connor getting in, mcguinness yes, aylward maybe, but she won't.

takun · 08-02-2011 12:24am

Oops. But yes, Liam/Bobby, whatever. Neither could ever have been described as inspiring.

Mr.Micro · 08-02-2011 12:33am

takun wrote: »

Oops. But yes, Liam/Bobby, whatever. Neither could ever have been described as inspiring.

So uninspiring that he was invisible/anonymous for the last 3 years or so in the Dail, useless in effect.

takun · 08-02-2011 3:37pm

Anyone know anything about Noel G. Walsh who just popped up as an independent in Carlow Kilkenny? His face is vaguely familiar, but I don't think I ever heard of him before.

Profile: http://www.thejournal.ie/election-candidates-2011/carlow-kilkenny/noel-g-walsh/

Though all it tells me is he comes from a (very) big family and likes sport.

thetonynator · 08-02-2011 5:43pm

takun wrote: »

Anyone know anything about Noel G. Walsh who just popped up as an independent in Carlow Kilkenny? His face is vaguely familiar, but I don't think I ever heard of him before.

Profile: http://www.thejournal.ie/election-candidates-2011/carlow-kilkenny/noel-g-walsh/

Though all it tells me is he comes from a (very) big family and likes sport.

he was in the kilkenny people poll a few weeks ago, but i'd never heard of him before that.

madmaggie · 09-02-2011 1:49am

I'm not a member of any party, but I met Phil Hogan recently at one of his clinics, found him easy to talk to and he both e-mailed and wrote to me. Good luck to him.

Getonwithit · 10-02-2011 12:10am

Jennifer Murnane is all over Carlow town, poster wise, although I thought for a bit she hadnt got a nomination but was running as an independent. Not playing up her Fianna Fail allegiance at all! Carlow will only return one candidate I think, which will be bad for Carlow, has been underrepresented for a long time, no FF deputy during one Boom govt and when we did have one it was Mj Nolan! Toss up btw both scenarios. I think it will go Hogan, Deering, Mc Guinness, Ann Phelan and then..... could be tight. South KK is covered by John Paul Phelan and Bobby Awylward, will they split the local vote, Phelan will do far better on the transfers you would imagine, any FF candidate getting a vote will be on their own person the party will suffer. Mary White will be a big casualty I reckon. Voted for her highly last time out as I thought she had a shot at a junior ministry she didnt deliver locally and her party are due a hammering.

Mr.Micro · 10-02-2011 12:23am

Getonwithit wrote: »

Jennifer Murnane is all over Carlow town, poster wise, although I thought for a bit she hadnt got a nomination but was running as an independent. Not playing up her Fianna Fail allegiance at all! Carlow will only return one candidate I think, which will be bad for Carlow, has been underrepresented for a long time, no FF deputy during one Boom govt and when we did have one it was Mj Nolan! Toss up btw both scenarios. I think it will go Hogan, Deering, Mc Guinness, Ann Phelan and then..... could be tight. South KK is covered by John Paul Phelan and Bobby Awylward, will they split the local vote, Phelan will do far better on the transfers you would imagine, any FF candidate getting a vote will be on their own person the party will suffer. Mary White will be a big casualty I reckon. Voted for her highly last time out as I thought she had a shot at a junior ministry she didnt deliver locally and her party are due a hammering.

Murnane must have the poster with the biggest face at least two and a half times the size of faces on all other posters and her FF tag is virtually invisible. Her colleague McGuinneas poster looks like an independent its so sly and confusing with FF in very small graphics in white almost invisible against its background.....there should be a law against such blatant
attempts at deceit especially perhaps older voters who may get confused.

White got in last time on transfers after about 7 counts. This time I hope voters are canny with transfers to avoid a repeat of the ego centred White getting in. Carlow is one of those truly apathetic counties where there are many sheep alas.

thetonynator · 10-02-2011 6:55pm

I think there at least 2 independents declared, noel walsh is one and i theres another fella running too. Anyone know if there are more than 2?

thetonynator · 11-02-2011 11:55pm

Full Carlow-Kilkenny List:

John McGuinness FF
Bobby Aylward FF
Jennifer Murnane O'Connor FF
Phil Hogan FG
John Paul Phelan FG
Patrick Deering FG
Ann Phelan Lab
Des Hurley Lab
Mary White Green
Kathleen Funchion SF
John Cassin SF
Conor MacLiam Soc/ULA
Noel G Walsh Ind
David Murphy Ind
Johnny Couchman Ind
John O'Hara Ind
Stephen Kelly Ind
Ramie Leahy Ind
John Dalton Ind

Take from yesterdays Irish Indo.

thetonynator · 13-02-2011 11:13pm

Canvassers for Aylward and John Paul round here today . . .

telekon · 13-02-2011 11:17pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Full Carlow-Kilkenny List:

John McGuinness FF
Bobby Aylward FF
Jennifer Murnane O'Connor FF
Phil Hogan FG
John Paul Phelan FG
Patrick Deering FG
Ann Phelan Lab
Des Hurley Lab
Mary White Green
Kathleen Funchion SF
John Cassin SF
Conor MacLiam Soc/ULA
Noel G Walsh Ind
David Murphy Ind
Johnny Couchman Ind
John O'Hara Ind
Stephen Kelly Ind
Ramie Leahy Ind
John Dalton Ind

Take from yesterdays Irish Indo.

Dear God...for 5 seats?!? :eek:

You'd know there was a jobs crisis, wouldn't you!!

foggy_lad · 14-02-2011 10:24pm

This may be a silly and slightly off topic question but when do the polling cards usually get posted out? i thought they would have arrived by now.

thetonynator · 18-02-2011 11:09pm

Judging by the fact that even on the (very anti FF) boards poll, that one FF candidate got in, i think maybe the two of them (aylward and mcguinness) will scrape in.

Current Prediction:

Aylward
McGuinness
Hogan
JP Phelan
Ann Phelan

dabestman1 · 22-02-2011 12:29pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Judging by the fact that even on the (very anti FF) boards poll, that one FF candidate got in, i think maybe the two of them (aylward and mcguinness) will scrape in.

Current Prediction:

Aylward
McGuinness
Hogan
JP Phelan
Ann Phelan

Aylward must be in trouble as he's on the drift with paddy power, Cassan, Funchion and Hurley all moving inwards.

Brother Psychosis · 22-02-2011 1:22pm

Murnane O Connor would have to get in ahead of McGuinness and Aylward, theres only a small chance of them being returned and even less of M.O'C. getting in, even if Aylward and McGuinness are completely anonymous. they're relying solely on the traditional FF vote as opposed to their own merits, so probably will get in, but if the were relying on their own record, they'd be screwed

phil hogan is no problem and with the PR behind JP Phelan, he's almost a cert to get in. even with the lack of carlow based candidates, deering has been almost invisible, it'll be a surprise if he gets in, he'd prob have to rely on a lot of FG transfers from KK voters

never even heard of Hurley and cant see Ann Phelan doing that well, she's another anonymous, but theres a decent labour presence in the area, even if theres no decent candidate

the day Mary White gets re-elected is the day Satan drives to work in a snow plough. she did nothing for the past four years and, even as the only carlow TD, the sense of anger towards er and the greens in general leave her with almost no hope. there was a piece on her in the times a while ago, not one person in Borris/Myshall sort of area had anything good to say about her.

SF will do well, but I doubt well enough to get a seat, Funchion is not popular in a lot of places. no independant has made any great impact, but i wouldnt be surprised if the last seat went to one of them

John Paul Phelan
John McGuinness
Phil Hogan
Patrick Deering
Bobby Aylward/Ann Phelan

Villain · 22-02-2011 1:28pm

I'm still undecided here myself but I will be voting for a Carlow Candidate, we have a serious risk of Carlow not having a TD elected, something I highlighted a few months ago on the Carlow Forum.

At the moment I would call it as HOGAN, JP PHELAN, Ann PHELAN and MCGUINNESS with the last seat been between DEERING, Cassin, Hurley and Aylward with Deering possibly sneaking through if the FG vote continues to grow until Friday.

frankmck45 · 24-02-2011 10:58am

The day of reckoning approaches. I hope FG can get three in Carlow Kilkenny but that is my heart talking.We so need a full minister in this constituency.It will take a huge effort for F.G to take three.It will come down to how long Mary White stays in and if K Funchion can stay ahead of Mr Cassin. My head says the order of election will be Hogan, McGuinness, Phelan Ann, Phelan J.P and a fight between Cassin and Deering for the last place.

Carlow-Kilkenny

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