Cyclone Yasi to hit Australia

isle of man

The cyclone strengthened to a Category 3 storm on Monday with winds up to 185 km/h, and is expected to strike the Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday as a Category 4 storm with gusts up to 260 km/h.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/01/31/australia-cyclone-yasi.html#ixzz1CeHUwcHN


not looking good at all if it hits, thats going to be some damage,


sorry if posted allready i took a look and could not find it,

Mayo Exile

Mayo Exile

Su Campu

IDQ20018TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0700 UTC 01/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 154.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [34 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1800: 15.4S 151.3E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 950
+24: 02/0600: 16.5S 147.8E: 080 [150]: 105 [195]: 937
+36: 02/1800: 17.7S 144.3E: 110 [205]: 070 [130]: 969
+48: 03/0600: 19.0S 141.3E: 130 [240]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 03/1800: 20.1S 138.7E: 160 [295]: 030 [050]: 999
+72: 04/0600: 21.3S 136.5E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1000

REMARKS:Following a period of intensification overnight, Yasi has maintained intensityin the past 6-12 hours. The environment of low shear and good upper leveloutflow, assisted by an upper low to the south, is conducive for development,however the system is passing over an area of reduced ocean heat content whichmay be hindering intensification. Dvorak intensity based on eye pattern [EIR B surround, LG/B elongated eye; VIS1degree embedded distance but ragged subtraction] both giving DT=5.0, consistentwith adjusted MET. Mean winds estimated at 85 knots [top end CI=5.0] supportedby SATCON [95 knots 1min mean] as CIMMS AMSU estimates are higher than ADT.Further intensification can be expected with low shear, upper outflowenvironment persisting until landfall. How much influence the ocean heat contenthas on the intensification process remains a factor of uncertainty. Forecast motion is steady to the west southwest with a persisting mid-levelridge to the south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion. The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots areconducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecasttrack. With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity maybe maintained further inland than normal.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1300 UTC by BrisbaneTCWC.

DominoDub

Just got word from my cousin in Carins that they have been evacuated

Looks like the storm track has it hitting Carins full on !

gbee

http://www.cairnsgreatbarrierreef.org.au/Webpages/default.aspx?id=29

Two minute of stream ~ just went down.

Duiske

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:

Dominodub wrote:

Just got word from my cousin in Carins that they have been evacuated

Looks like the storm track has it hitting Carins full on !

There's quite a few camping areas around Cairn's, which i'd imagine would be fairly busy at this time of year. Hope these site's are first priority for evacuation notice's.

Su Campu

Looks like around 100kts at landfall, with places like Inishfail and Caldwell getting the brunt of the winds and surge, being on the south side of the eye (remember it circulates clockwise!). Cairns will still get a battering.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 01/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 153.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [34 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 16.1S 149.6E: 050 [095]: 105 [195]: 937
+24: 02/1200: 17.1S 146.0E: 080 [150]: 105 [195]: 937
+36: 03/0000: 18.4S 142.8E: 110 [205]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 03/1200: 19.6S 140.0E: 130 [240]: 030 [060]: 998
+60: 04/0000: 20.8S 137.5E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 04/1200: 21.5S 135.4E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Yasi has intensified in the last 6 hours. The environment of low shear and good
upper level outflow, assisted by an upper low to the south, is conducive to
maintaining current intensity. There is the possibility of some further
intensification before landfall.
Dvorak intensity based on eye pattern [EIR B surround, OW eye] giving DT=6.0,
consistent with adjusted MET. Mean winds estimated at 100 knots.
Forecast motion is steady to the west southwest with a persisting mid-level
ridge to the south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion.
The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots are
conducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecast
track.
With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity may
be maintained further inland than normal.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Su Campu

Duiske wrote: »

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:

The Solomon Islands received over 70mm of rain up to 12UTC today, but it may be starting to weaken on reaching lanfall. Hurricane force winds are only extending 70km from the centre.

lolie

Duiske wrote: »

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:


how do you check it on google maps?

Iancar29

lolie wrote: »

Duiske wrote: »

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:


how do you check it on google maps?

No, google earth... on that its shows weather data on it, satellite images and radar.

lolie

cheers. i forgot i had google earth downloaded

DominoDub

Upgrade now a CAT 5 :eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVLqOPPVFzA

isle of man

Yasi will also bring damaging waves and strong currents.
A strong monsoon is also feeding the cyclone and this could lead to it maintaining strength as sweeps inland, potentially up to 600 miles to the outback mining city of Mount Isa.
Airlines are laying on extra flights to get people out of the area, especially tourists with nowhere else to go.
But the storm is so wide that finding somewhere safe to move to will be difficult for tens of thousands of people.
The holiday resort of Hamilton Island has already been evacuated, and coal terminals in Bowen and Mackay have closed down in another blow to the state's mining industry which has already been disrupted by flooding.
Ms Bligh said the threat to life and property was compounded by the possibility it could trigger a tsunami-like storm surge, especially if its landfall coincided with a high tide.
Police have been empowered to use force if necessary to move people from danger zones.

isle of man

DominoDub wrote: »

Upgrade now a CAT 5 :eek:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/02/3127394.htm

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi was upgraded to category five off north Queensland this morning as the weather bureau warned it was likely to be deadlier than any storm seen in Australia in living memory.


"There's still potential for it to become stronger ... as a strong category five we could see wind gusts in excess of 320 kilometres an hour. Which is just horrific."

320KMH, thats just menteal

eddiem10

Apologies if the link below has been posted already!

http://www.townsvillestorms.com/townsvilleskycam.html

isle of man

good find,
anyone know what time its ment to hit land at

je55ie

Must be a really frightening time for people there, really hope it weakens before it hits land...

isle of man

was just watching the moblie webcam in the link above, as they were driving the weather report came on the radio,

296kmh at the eye, and they recokn it be 280km guests that make land fall,

thats like 160mph winds :eek:

Mayo Exile

Mayo Exile

Impressive radar loop visible at the moment from this station.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR413.loop.shtml

EDIT: radar post may have been destroyed. See post #23 from Jake1 below. Now says "radar information is currently unavailable".


Captured radar image:

ronnie3585

Another shot.

Good link here for updates and coverage.They have 12 hrs 40mins till landfall.

10.04am A weather watcher in Cairns reported on Twitter that the Bureau of Meteorology observation post on Willis Island may have been destroyed. They are being slammed by the cyclone now, and no data has been reported for 40 minutes.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/north-queensland-braces-for-cyclone-anthony-as-cyclone-yasi-brews-behind-it/story-fn7ik2te-1225997552623#ixzz1CkiIAzNm

Mayo Exile

Jake1 wrote: »

Good link here for updates and coverage.They have 12 hrs 40mins till landfall.

10.04am A weather watcher in Cairns reported on Twitter that the Bureau of Meteorology observation post on Willis Island may have been destroyed. They are being slammed by the cyclone now, and no data has been reported for 40 minutes.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/north-queensland-braces-for-cyclone-anthony-as-cyclone-yasi-brews-behind-it/story-fn7ik2te-1225997552623#ixzz1CkiIAzNm

May explain why the radar loop I posted above is not sending any info past 2200 UTC. Eyewall of the storm was nearly at the location at that stage. EDIT: now saying "radar information is currently unavailable".

Satellite loop from the Japan Meteorological Association visible here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=4&element=1&mode=UTC

Sponge Bob

Wind readings have stopped at that weather station but pressure data was still coming in up to 9am local time, now 938hpa and dropping :eek:


Staff Evacuated yesterday thank God!

DominoDub

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR191.loop.shtml#skip

Xavi6

How big it actually is in comparison to the States -



Going to be an insane night.

Mayo Exile

fryup

isle of man wrote: »

good find,
anyone know what time its ment to hit land at

14.00 irish time

midnight local time

premiercad

Noaa Hurricane centre radar loop....:eek:


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Elmo5

Am seriously worried, my cousin is just home from hospital with a new baby and in townsville :eek: she posted a photo on facebook yesterday with sand bags in their appartment