GAA tips from the Amateur

Sir Vival

New season, new log. Have learned a lot gambling wise throughout the last year so hopefully it pays off from now until the 3rd weekend in september.

This thread will be solely for GAA bets and all selections will be up at least a day before the game (maybe even a few days before as I like to catch the early prices) to avoid confusion.

For non GAA fans, this weekend marks the beginning of the national football leagues with national the hurling leagues starting a week later. These competitions have become a lot more competitive over the last number of years with the mentality of "sure it's only the league" quickly disappearing as managers are put under intense pressure to deliver early results. So in theory the results should be more straight forward to call, we'll see...

The plan is to keep the bets nice and simple for the first few weeks anyways, singles and doubles only and I'll reassess the situation then after the few weeks if necessary.

Starting bank of €100

This weeks selections to follow (wednesday/thursday more than likely)...

jive

Good luck! Should be a good log to follow

mixed up

The best of luck, i honestly think the gaa is one market where we have an advantage over the bookies definately the club games.The only games i stay away from are the college games.

fkiely

Good luck with this, is a very interesting market and I'll be keeping an eye on this thread.

Sir Vival

Thanks for the comments lads, have a good feeling about this season

Bored at home so I said I'd throw this up. It's just a list of teams that I expect to be backing/backing against regularly throughout the league. Obviously this is not set in stone or anything and it will depend which team is playing who, home advantage, team selection etc. but these are just initial thoughts so I said I'd jot them down

Ones to watch: Dublin, Cork, Meath, Tyrone, Derry, Louth, Westmeath, Roscommon,

Ones to avoid: Armagh, Monaghan, Laois, Antrim, Offaly, Waterford, Leitrim, Carlow

I'm currently studying the weekends games that are taking my fancy and am pleased with some of the prices PP are offering

Was onto PP earlier and they informed me that the handicap markets will be added to the coupon later in the week, possibly thursday but more than likely friday.

Sir Vival

1st bet of the season: Longford v Roscommon @6/5

I'm taking this bet quite early because I don't think this price will be around later in the week. I was humming and hawing whether to take it this morning but have decided to take the plunge once it was confirmed a few hours ago that Brian Kavanagh (kilmacud crokes), longford's scorer in chief will not be let play.

This news combined with Roscommon having the better all round team (in my opinion) is definitely enough for a small punt even though Ros have concerns themselves in the form of Shine's hand injury and the St. Brigids players not playing. I, however, am quietly confident that Shine will play and hence score 6/7 points.

Even considering the above, Roscommon have real aspirations to get straight out of division 4 and have been playing friendlies every few days. A loss to the neighbours would be a massive blow to them, so it's a win at all costs game. I just can't see where Longford are going to get 12/13pts from seeing as Mcgee is out as well (their second best forward behind Kavanagh). Roscommon's pre-season wasn't amazing but it was more encouraging than Longfords, so that could be another factor.

There's really nothing more I can say on the game, as no teams have been named but it's more of a value bet as i'd definitely have Ros as 8/13 favourites for this game.

€10 @5/6 returns €22

Bank: €90
In-play: €10

dougal-maguire

loving the look of the rossies this weekend.i thought they were value when i thought mcgee and Brian Kavanagh would be playing.ill be having a small bet on them now,and if odds havent shorted too much if shine is confirmed as starting ill be on them again.

Best of look with the log,going to follow it very closely.

Fowler87

Sir Vival wrote: »

Thanks for the comments lads, have a good feeling about this season

Bored at home so I said I'd throw this up. It's just a list of teams that I expect to be backing/backing against regularly throughout the league. Obviously this is not set in stone or anything and it will depend which team is playing who, home advantage, team selection etc. but these are just initial thoughts so I said I'd jot them down

Ones to watch: Dublin, Cork, Meath, Tyrone, Derry, Louth, Westmeath, Roscommon,

Ones to avoid: Armagh, Monaghan, Laois, Antrim, Offaly, Waterford, Leitrim, Carlow

I'm currently studying the weekends games that are taking my fancy and am pleased with some of the prices PP are offering

Was onto PP earlier and they informed me that the handicap markets will be added to the coupon later in the week, possibly thursday but more than likely friday.

Wheres Mayo?:pac: Playing under lights against Down saturday night. I reckon Mark Ronaldson needs to be kept an eye on scorer wise.. flying form atm and he normally does well in the national league.

Best of luck with your log, Il be following it

Sir Vival

Fowler87 wrote: »

Wheres Mayo?:pac: Playing under lights against Down saturday night. I reckon Mark Ronaldson needs to be kept an eye on scorer wise.. flying form atm and he normally does well in the national league.

Best of luck with your log, Il be following it

Believe it or not, I had Mayo in the list but took them out when I read back over it. There's no doubt that they're a quality side but there is something unnerving about them. The new manager makes me believe that he will experiment a fair bit throughout the league so that makes me uneasy as well.

Mayo are normally very good in the league so we'll see. Definitely too short @4/7 against Down I think but will keep a close eye on them.

Thanks for your input.

Sir Vival

Saturday's selection, I hope to do more detailed write-ups in future but as it's only the start of the league I've nothing current to go on

(1) Donegal v Sligo @8/15

Reason 1: Donegal have a very good record at home, very rarely lose in Ballyboffey.
Reason 2: Donegal have a stronger squad both in footballing terms and physicality terms. Sligo tend to suffer against physical teams (Down last year and Roscommon to a lesser extent) and donegal are certainly one of these.
Reason 3: Donegal's big strong accurate forwards including Murphy, "Brick" Molloy and Mcfadden. Can't see sligo handling these lads
Reason 4: Sligo's long injury list mcgee, mullan, johnny davey(big loss), mcguire(not so much of a loss in my opinion), mcnamara and costello faces a late fitness test.

I just can't see any other result but Donegal winning by 3/4pts. Probably would have a look at the (-2) handicap but playing it safe as it's early in the season.

(2) Laois v Meath @4/5

I feel compelled to go for Meath here. Even though their league record outside of navan isn't great, I think there is something different about them this year.

Reason 1: Banty and his backroom team. Fantastic coaches in my opinion and will want to get league off to flying start.
Reason 2: Confidence from O'byrne cup.
Reason 3: Meath tend to put up big scores and you can see why when you look at sheridan, farrell, ward, o'rourke and reilly
Reason 4: Laois had a shocking O'byrne cup losing to the atrocious Athlone IT and are short one of if not their best forward in donie kingston.

Laois are funny aul team so I wouldn't be surprised if they sneaked by Meath but I think for the firepower Meath have, they represent good value at 4/5

€10 double returns €27.60 (would be a higher stake normally but don't want to stake anymore than 20% at any one time if at all I can

Bank: €80
In-play: €20

RightHalfBack

Dont forget Roscommon will be missing their St Bridigts lads this weekend.. should still win though,

funnyname

I see Leitrim is on your ones to avoid list, well they are at home to Clare this weekend who had a very good campaign in the McGrath Cup. The Clare manager was giving out about a lot of wides in the Kerry game (only lost by 3 points) but they did score well in their previous games so I think Clare at 4/5 is worth a nibble.

Great resource for best odds.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/gaelic-games

Although saying that the only hammering GMIT took was to Leitrim

http://www.connachtgaa.ie/ss_fbd.php

Sir Vival

RightHalfBack wrote: »

Dont forget Roscommon will be missing their St Bridigts lads this weekend.. should still win though,

I'm aware of this, tis in my preview. I believe the Brigid's players missing is overshadowed by this.

http://www.hoganstand.com/Longford/ArticleForm.aspx?ID=141644

I see Leitrim is on your ones to avoid list, well they are at home to Clare this weekend who had a very good campaign in the McGrath Cup. The Clare manager was giving out about a lot of wides in the Kerry game (only lost by 3 points) but they did score well in their previous games so I think Clare at 4/5 is worth a nibble.

Can't see myself ever backing Clare in a football game... big statement I know

RightHalfBack

Sir Vival wrote: »

I'm aware of this, tis in my preview.

indeed, my apologies..

storykid

Like the look of that double Sir V, gonna follow you on that one, only slight worry would be Meath i think. best of luck

funnyname

Sir Vival wrote: »

I'm aware of this, tis in my preview. I believe the Brigid's players missing is overshadowed by this.

http://www.hoganstand.com/Longford/ArticleForm.aspx?ID=141644



Can't see myself ever backing Clare in a football game... big statement I know

You'll give me good odds when they play Kilkenny then, lol.

They had a good run in the league last year but lost their last two games to miss out on the league final, Limerick & Tipp who contested it.

Sir Vival

Meath into 4/6 and Roscommon now evens

Hopefully it's a sign of things to come, although I'm not too happy with the team Roscommon have named. I still think they should have enough to beat Longford though.

Really looking forward to tonight's games now.

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

S

(1) Donegal v Sligo @8/15

(2) Laois v Meath @4/5

€10 double returns €27.60 (would be a higher stake normally but don't want to stake anymore than 20% at any one time if at all I can

Well that double is gone. Donegal screwing up by getting a man sent off in the first half. They then clawed by an 8pt gap to level but couldn't get the winner.

Won't have another bet this weekend, hopefully Roscommon win and bring me into profit (of €2...:pac:)

funnyname

Sir Vival wrote: »

Won't have another bet this weekend, hopefully Roscommon win and bring me into profit (of €2...:pac:)

Good discipline

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

1st bet of the season: Longford v Roscommon @6/5

Lose, Roscommon 0-10 Longford 1-7. Ros were 2mins away from victory.

Meath were puck altogether in Portlaois I hear so the double had no chance even if Donegal won yesterday.

Gonna put down this weeks gambling results to a strange sporting weekend. Lots of draws and underdogs winning in the GAA as well as Arsenal losing 4 goal lead, Utd losing in Molineux and Ireland scraping past Italy.

Hopefully things pick up next weekend, not hitting panic stations yet anyways.

Looks like there's a few nice fixtures coming up.

Closing bank after week one: €80 (Loss -€20)

Sir Vival

Small bet this week, thought there was a full-second round list of football fixtures.

Treble
(1) London(+7) v Roscommon @10/11
London are an improving side as emmigration continues to rise, they're still not near competing with the majority of teams in ireland but at home they can be very dogged. Beating Kilkenny last weekend will have given them a bit of confidence to hopefully find 8 or 9 scores of their own tomorrow which should be good enough with a +7 start.

Roscommon's star player, Shine won't be playing so I can't see where Ros are going to get 16/17 scores from to cover the spread. They've also named a strange team with a very weak spine in my opinion. I think they'll win but only narrowly and more than likely unconvincingly.

(2) Kerry v Antrim @4/11
Reasoning in GAA Betting thread, annoyed i didn't take the 1/2 on offer earlier in the week but the handicap market wasn't available for the Ros game then.

(3) Tipperary v Kilkenny @4/6
Following KevIRL and premierstone from GAA Betting thread. I also have a hunch for kilkenny.

€5 returns €21.69

In-play: €5
Closing Bank: €75

Sir Vival

Another loser there thanks to Roscommon turning up the heat on London. Stopped listening to the game after 20mins, had to leave house and London were winning 0-3 to 0-2 so I thought happy days...

Will probably go for a max league bet for me this weekend of €25 or €30

No write-up yet, maybe tomorrow or thursday when I place the bet but I really like the following to win: Louth (formidable at home and look way to strong for this division), Tyrone (first home game, mugsy could be back, rarely lose 2 in a row and Donegal were poor at home so not expecting much away from home), Down (should have beaten Mayo, scoring well, home advantage, playing Galway who are in absolute turmoil), Roscommon (unbeaten in 2 games, Shine should be back, hosting carlow in the hyde, carlow will miss their best player)

Laters...

Sir Vival

Lots of good games on this week that I'd like to bet on but going with this treble.

(1) Louth v Tipperary @1/2.
No teams named yet but expect Louth to name a strong team. Although they've lost their last 2 games against Tipp, I expect this to change this weekend. In a line I think Louth are a step above this division at the moment and their recent form very impressive. Strong defense coupled with some industrious forwards makes me think they'll will be hard beat anywhere this year let alone at home in Drogheda.

I heared Tipperary flattered to deceive against Limerick before running out convincing winners.

Verdict: Louth by 4pts

(2) Down v Galway @4/9
Going for this more on Galway's situation more than Down being phenomenal although Down do have a lot going for them. Galway are in disarray at the moment, losing to a completely new-look monaghan team who were relegation favourites and having to experienced players including a join captain leave the squad this week (Fitzgerald and Colemand for anyone interested). Add to this the injury loss of Meehan and the loss of two Joyces and you find it hard to see where the scores are going to come from. The inclusion of Conroy and Concannon (if selected) will give them a boost but a trip to Newry this weekend is a daunting task.

Down should have beaten Mayo scoring 3 goals in the process but a draw was still a good positive result for them. Home games are crucial to their survival in this division and there's no better time to be playing Galway.

Verdict: Down by 4/5 pts

(3) Roscommon v Carlow @1/5
Roscommon simply wont lose to Carlow in Roscommon. It's just not gonna happen. The Rossies also expect Shine to play a part this weekend which is a massive boost while Carlow miss their best player in Brendan Murphy and defender St. Ledger. Not writing anymore as it wont change the result in Carlow's favour.

Roscommon by 6/7 pts

€25 treble returns €65

In-play: €25
Closing Bank: €50

KevIRL

Too many trebles Sir V imo.

GL with this weekend though.

Sir Vival

KevIRL wrote: »

Too many trebles Sir V imo.

GL with this weekend though.

I agree to an extent but the way I see it is Roscommon will 99% of the time beat Carlow very comfortably in Roscommon.

My double would have been the other two teams so although it's a treble, I see it as almost a double.

Crazy logic I know but Ros wont be the team to let this bet down.

jive

nice one this week! only returned €60 for me as roscommon went to 1/7 by the time i got on, still happy out!

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

€25 treble returns €65

Wins, Roscommon win by 12pts, Down by 5pts and Louth by 2pts.

nice one this week! only returned €60 for me as roscommon went to 1/7 by the time i got on, still happy out!

Louth made us sweat a bit but sure you'll have that.

Roll on next week

Closing Bank: €115 (+€15)

Bestake

Nice one on the accumulator

funnyname

Down should have beaten Galway by much more, was sweating for a while especially after Galway got their goal.

mjp

Great day for Gaa results with most matches going as cookies predicted. Got 3 diff accums up and kildare let me down for a massive accum of 37/1 across football and hurling. Got lucky breaks with late scores n armagh kilkenny and louth games. Nice for a change to get the rub of the green after getting shafted by late scores in recent weeks. Roll on next weekend! !!

mixed up

Sir Vival wrote: »

Carlow miss their best player in Brendan Murphy and defender St. Ledger.


Well done on winning your bet but you need to do more research on your bets if you think St Ledger is a defender as he is a forward.