GAA tips from the Amateur

Sir Vival

mixed up wrote: »

Well done on winning your bet but you need to do more research on your bets if you think St Ledger is a defender as he is a forward.

My bad, was sure I read somewhere that he was a defender. From the match report against wicklow I see he scored 0-4 (0-3 frees) so he's probably a bigger loss as a forward than I had him as a back.

That kind of sloppiness won't happen again, thanks for pointing it out.

Hulk Hands

funnyname wrote: »

Down should have beaten Galway by much more, was sweating for a while especially after Galway got their goal.

What? Were you at the game? Galway were only 2 points down and pushing when Down got a breakaway goal in the last minute. It wasn't one sided at all. Down were slightly the better team.

I really hope your an outsider living in Galway btw. The lack of support behind the footballers is shocking in the county

KevIRL

Well played Sir V. Hopefully this is the start of a heater for ya.

Thinkin bout getting a hurling log going myself

Sir Vival

KevIRL wrote: »

Well played Sir V. Hopefully this is the start of a heater for ya.

Thinkin bout getting a hurling log going myself

You should seriously consider starting a log. I certainly could do with a helping hand in hurling betting and it makes you consider your selections a lot more as you write down your reasoning as well.

Thanks for the comments, and get that log up!

therunaround

Hows it going lads, Iv set up a gaa gambling thread myself there, "gaa accumulators". More a hurling man, but the nature of the game makes it a bit more unpredictable than the football, ah sur will have a lash.

Feel free to visit!

funnyname

Hulk Hands wrote: »

What? Were you at the game? Galway were only 2 points down and pushing when Down got a breakaway goal in the last minute. It wasn't one sided at all. Down were slightly the better team.

I really hope your an outsider living in Galway btw. The lack of support behind the footballers is shocking in the county

Wasn't at game, basing on reports during and after the game on rte radio 1.

Sir Vival

Laois v Westmeath @8/11

Taking a punt on westmeath tonight in the first round of the u-21 leinster championship. They're usually strong underage and have got a good few familiar names in their starting line up, have also seen them play impressively in a couple of friendlies. They're missing Heslin which is a big blow but I think they've a good enough to team to beat Laois away tonight by 3/4 points.

€15 returns €25.91

In-play: €15
Closing Bank: €100

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Laois v Westmeath @8/11

€15 returns €25.91

Big win for Westmeath 1-15 to 1-5 playing away from home minus arguably their best player. Must be favourites for leinster now along with Meath.

Weekend bet(s) should be up tomorrow night sometime...

In-play: €0
Closing Bank: €125.91 (+25.91)

Sir Vival

A single for me this week as I think it's a good price.

Dublin v Kerry @5/6

Bit disappointed I didn't back the dubs in either of their previous nfl games as this time of year they seem to be that bit fitter than everyone else as well as having the few classy players to get them over the line.

While the Dubs defence has looked shaky against armagh and cork, one can't but be impressed with their forwards in particularly McManamon who has added a new dimension to their attack. Adding one, possibly two Brogans to this, mossy quinn and love him or hate him O'gara and you've got a potent attack capable of putting up big scores in any game.

I haven't been impressed with Kerry's performances so far. They were ok against Cork but gifted them far too many scores through stupid fouling and needless turnovers. From reading reports they struggled for long periods against an new-look Mayo team but eventually getting over the line thanks to a dubious penalty decision. The team they've named looks strong in the full-forward line but I'd be concerned about their lack of pace in brosnan, o mahoney, moran, sheehan and scanlon.

The venue wont be much of an advantage to Dublin as Kerry have been there many times and got results but with the Dubs enthuasiasm and fitness and a more settled team I can see them running out victors by 2 or 3 points

€20.91 returns €38.33

In-play: €20.91
Closing Bank: €105

Might have another Bet for Sunday, we'll see how the Dubs get on Saturday first.

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Dublin v Kerry @5/6

Dublin squeeze through by the narrowest of margins. Didn't see the game but I'll take 1 point win any day of the week.

Starting to find my feet now, hopefully good run continues.

Will probably have a bet on game(s) tomorrow, will have selection up tomorrow morning if I decide to.

Closing bank: €143.33 (+€43.33)

dougal-maguire

Sir Vival wrote: »

Dublin squeeze through by the narrowest of margins. Didn't see the game but I'll take 1 point win any day of the week.

Starting to find my feet now, hopefully good run continues.

Will probably have a bet on game(s) tomorrow, will have selection up tomorrow morning if I decide to.

Closing bank: €143.33 (+€43.33)

dublin kept going for goal,should of had a few points to spare.really like the look of derry tomorrow,cant see them losing that one...but i couldnt see meath losing tonight either.did ya have any money on the bridgets game today??

Sir Vival

dougal-maguire wrote: »

dublin kept going for goal,should of had a few points to spare.really like the look of derry tomorrow,cant see them losing that one...but i couldnt see meath losing tonight either.did ya have any money on the bridgets game today??

Nope no money on Brigids, probably would have had a tenner on them if it was on tg4 but alas the f***** election seems to be on every channel. Great result for them but can't see them beating kilmacud in the final (i think crokes will have too much for cross tomorrow)

Yeah really like the look of Derry tomorrow. Really strong at home and in great from, could have eoin bradley back as well.

Meath haven't won an away match in the NFL in something like 2 and a half years. I learned my lesson the first day out against laois.

Sir Vival

Going for a small stakes treble, mostly for interest as 2 of the games are televised live on tg4. That's not to say I don't expect all 3 teams to win though

(1) Derry v Laois @2/5

Derry are flying at the moment, having beaten two strong teams already in tyrone and kildare. They're very strong at home and are playing a settled well-balanced team. Massive scoring power in Paddy Bradley, Gilligan, lynch and kielt. Eoin Bradley could also make his return today which would be a big boost for them. Laois have performed well so far but can't see them winning 3 games in a row. Meath and Antrim aren't at the level Derry are at so this will definitely be their toughest task yet and I think it's too much for them.

Verdict: Derry by 3/4pts

(2) Galway v Mayo @5/6 LIVE ON TG4
Massive game for both teams with the loser staring relegation in the face. Galway aren't playing as bad as I thought they would following the withdrawal of two of their players and missing Meehan and the two joyces but at the same time they're not playing well enough to win games. I personally don't like the look of the galway team as I don't see where the scores are going to consistently come from. Meanwhile Mayo have a bit of class in nearly every line. If it comes down to the last 10mins which it probably will, my money's with Mayo as I don't think Galway have the confidence to grind out a win.

Verdict: Mayo by 2 pts

(3) Kilmacud Crokes v Crossmaglen @4/6 LIVE ON TG4
Two heavyweights of club football clash today. Based on what I've seen in previous rounds Crokes have what it takes to win today. They ooze class all over the pitch with no apparent weakness. Strong performances against Rhode and Portlaoise will give them great confidence going into this game.

I think Cross are overly reliant on Oisin and this maybe their downfall. I think they lack pace as well compared to Crokes so that's why I'm ruling against them.

Verdict: Kilmacud Crokes by 3pts

€8.33 treble returns €35.63

In-play: €8.33
Closing Bank: €135 (+€35)

Hulk Hands

Derry are available at 1/2 and Kilmacud are available at a fairly general 8/11.

I suppose in this case it's a treble, so needs to be with the same bookie, but is it usually Paddy Power you use or are you going with best price available?

Well done so far, and best of luck. I might follow you today on the derry/kilmacud double. I cant back against Galway even though Mayo are a fair price at 5/6

Sir Vival

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Derry are available at 1/2 and Kilmacud are available at a fairly general 8/11.

I suppose in this case it's a treble, so needs to be with the same bookie, but is it usually Paddy Power you use or are you going with best price available?

Well done so far, and best of luck. I might follow you today on the derry/kilmacud double. I cant back against Galway even though Mayo are a fair price at 5/6

Yeah I just use PP, I really like the lay-out of the site and have one of those cash-cards so don't need to mess about with cc/laser cards and there's loads of shops around the place.

Gut instinct tells me Mayo so going with that, only included them because it's televised.

Hulk Hands

I had a look there, came up with a few fancy's of my own today.

Sligo look well overpriced at 2/1 (WH) to beat Tyrone. This Sligo team is underrated and is good at home. Both teams lost last week. They may not win, but certainly too big at 2's.

Cavan can be got at 1/2 (bet365, Stan James) or 4/9 (Boyle's) to beat Waterford at home. This looks like a fill yer boots job. You can talk about teams going badly etc, but this is still Waterford at home. Cavan should see this out if they have anything about them at all.

I also like Donegal at evens at home to Kildare. This Donegal side is bang in form having beat Tyrone last week and are a much more formidable side in Ballybofey.

I think i'll have a single on each, and an accum with whichever bookie is giving the best general odds and adding in Derry and Kilmacud.

Sir Vival

Back home after a busy week away, would have liked to have had a couple of bets on the sigerson but couldn't find the time so i'll have one now on the final (which is televised on tg4, coverage starts at 2pm)

UUJ v UCC @evens

UCC knocked out massive favourites DCU in the quarters and UCD (who beat NUIG) in the semis. These were two significant scalps so they're obviously not averse of beating the big teams. But it's the final now and these previous wins mean very little.

UUJ have a strong panel and would be a traditional big hitter in the sigerson so that probably gave them the slight favourites tag. They struggled by maynooth in the semis having previously hammered carlow it. However they're big players with significant county experience in mone, mcmanus, mccartan and a few others will be up for the fight today.

I don't think that UCC can keep over-achieving, they've come into the competition under the radar and I think they'll leave it that way as well with UUJ running out winners by 3/4pts

€15 @evens returns €30

In-play: €15
Closing Bank: €120 (+20)

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

UUJ v UCC @evens

That one was a loser. UCC thoroughly deserved their 3 point win even though UUJ could have knicked it off them when the game was in the balance with 10 minutes to go.

Westmeath(u-21) v Offaly(u-21) @4/9

Going back to a team I backed earlier in the log, Westmeath u-21s. They're playing the 2nd round of the championship tonight at home. Westmeath are still without star midfielder Heslin but they showed against laois away the last day that they have a strong panel and don't rely on one player. Offaly beat them at this age in the minor but Westmeath have matured a lot since then and look a class act. If Westmeath were available on the handicap, i'd take them on it tonight.

Meath(u-21) v Longford(u-21) @1/4
Bit disappointed I didn't get Meath when they were at 1/3 but i'll take 1/4 as I think this game should be comfortable enough for them. They knocked out favourites Dublin so they clearly have strong intentions this year and with a good few senior players like gilsenan and meade they look a powerful outfit. Meanwhile Longford struggled in pre-season tournaments against a poor roscommon side and a decent cavan side and look a poor team on paper.

€20 double returns €36.11

In-play: €20
Closing Bank: €100(+/-€0)

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Westmeath(u-21) v Offaly(u-21) @4/9

Meath(u-21) v Longford(u-21) @1/4

€20 double returns €36.11

Meath somehow conceed 0-17 and subsequently lose to longford. Baffling result but that's football.

Westmeath won by 6pts, looks like they'll go on and win leinster now with meath and dublin gone. Will definitely be backing them again.

Back to where I started now

Closing Bank: €100(+/-€0)

Weekend selections to follow (tomorrow probably)

dougal-maguire

Sir Vival wrote: »

Meath somehow conceed 0-17 and subsequently lose to longford. Baffling result but that's football.

Westmeath won by 6pts, looks like they'll go on and win leinster now with meath and dublin gone. Will definitely be backing them again.

Back to where I started now

Closing Bank: €100(+/-€0)

Weekend selections to follow (tomorrow probably)

that game ended in a draw,just incase you dont know,aertel doesnt mention that it went to extra time.

Sir Vival

Saturday's Bet.

Tyrone(half-time/full-time) v Antrim @8/11

Really fancy tyrone to get their league back on track this weekend. Antrim are arguably the worst team in the division so tyrone could go to town on them. They boast an extremely potent attack on paper in the two cavanaghs, mugsy, o'neill, penrose and mcguigan. I've gone for tyrone to be winning at half-time and full-time as I think they'll come out of the blocks fairly fast tomorrow to put immediate pressure on Antrim. Meath were 5pts at a stage in the first half away to Antrim so I can see tyrone doing the same.

Antrim totally reliant on corner forward Cunningham who accounts for 60/70% of their scores. Tyrone will have a system to stop him, in that i'm sure so Antrim will find scores hard to come by if tyron keep their discipline.

Mayo(u-21) v Roscommon(u-21) @4/9

Bit disappointed by Mayo's price but I fully expect them to come through this game tomorrow. Roscommon have struggled in pre-season losing to cavan twice, cork, westmeath and offaly. They lack a forward that will get them 5/6pts like Shine did last year. Injury concerns also trouble them with collins and kilroy doubtful, two big players for them.

Mayo have all-ireland aspirations with their current panel. Previous successful minor teams are all merged with this panel. They've got plenty of talent in o'connor, o'shea(sometimes), freeman and nally. Home advantage is also a plus for them. They should prevail by 3 or 4 pts.

€27 double returns €67.36
€3 double on Tyrone(half-time/full-time) @8/11 and Mayo/Ros draw @7/1 returns €41.45

The €3 double is a saver as draws have f***** me over a couple of times.

In-play: €30
Closing Bank: €70 (-€30)

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Tyrone(half-time/full-time) v Antrim @8/11


Mayo(u-21) v Roscommon(u-21) @4/9


€27 double returns €67.36
€3 double on Tyrone(half-time/full-time) @8/11 and Mayo/Ros draw @7/1 returns €41.45

Bet loses at first hurdle, Ros u-21 beat Mayo by 2pts. Myself and a lot of roscommon shocked (in a good way) about that result. Ros started without 5 definite first team players and still disposed of a much fancied Mayo team who paid the price for missing a clear cut goal chance mid-way through the 2nd half. It looked that my draw saver would come to the rescue but roscommon pushed on to deservedly take victory.

Will have to stop backing against my own county anymore...

Weekend damage limitation

Tyrone(half-time/full-time) v Antrim @8/11

Reasoning above...

Roscommon v Fermanagh @4/7

Fermanagh are in turmoil with a depleted panel through injury and players leaving resulting in a big home defeat to longford. Roscommon unbeaten so far and playing at home.

Ros should have enough to take this game by 3/4 points

€20 double returns €54.29

In-play:€20
Closing Bank: €50 (-€50)

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Weekend damage limitation

Tyrone(half-time/full-time) v Antrim @8/11

Roscommon v Fermanagh @4/7

€20 double returns €54.29

Both teams win but bet loses. Tyrone trailed by 2pts at half-time before winning by 5pts.

Need to have a re-think, perhaps singles on handicaps or something.

Hopefully I can stop the rot next week.

Sir Vival

Short write-ups, just going with gut instinct this week, maybe the lack of analysis will get me back on track.

Dublin(-1) v Mayo @2/5
Dublin at home, unbeaten so far, accustomed to putting up big scores, massive firepower.
Mayo unsure of best team, inconsistent, a little short of physicality.

Wexford v Cavan @4/11
Wexford are flying, very strong home record.
Cavan struggling big time, conceeding lots and look like relegation fodder.

Kildare(-1) vs Meath @8/11
Kildare going well, great team spirit, could welcome back big names like doyle and kavanagh.
Meath going poorly, haven't won an away league match in and around 2 years, have injury concerns

€25 returns €82.44

In-play: €25
Closing Bank:€25(-€75)

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Dublin(-1) v Mayo @2/5

Wexford v Cavan @4/11

Kildare(-1) vs Meath @8/11

€25 returns €82.44

Bet Wins, Dublin by 5pts, Wexford by 2pts and Kildare by 2pts

Might save my bets till the day of the match for a few weeks and see what my gut says on the day.

Back in profit, woo...

Closing Bank: €107.44(+7.44)

Sir Vival

U-21 odds available for wednesday's games.

Westmeath look great value @2/5.
I've backed them twice before and they came through with ease. Longford are no great shakes even though they beat Meath aet. Westmeath should go on and win leinster.

Tyrone v Down @4/7
Same tyrone team that won the minor all-ireland. Down are no slouches but tyrone should prove to strong at home, just.

€12.44 double returns €27.37

In-play: €12.44
Closing Bank: €95 (-€5)

Sir Vival

Today's selections:

(1) Limerick v Westmeath(+3) @8/11
Really fancy westmeath to win this but going to play it safe on this alternative handicap. Strong westmeath team with an inside line of greville, glennon and dolan. Both teams have struggled a bit so far but I fancy westmeath to push on and contest for promotion.

(2) Donegal(-4) v Antrim @8/13.
This bet looks solid on paper as Antrim have a significant injury list including niblock, crozier and most importantly their scorer-in-chief cunningham. Donegal have hit top form and have a lethal forward line.

€20 double returns €48.36

Also a sneak treble of the following...

(1) Limerick v Westmeath @2/1

(2) Derry v Meath @15/8 (this one goes against all my previous thinking but derry have been so inconsistent and even though Meath haven't won an away game in a couple of years, I think they may battle to a narrow victory here/

(3) Sligo v Laois @11/10
Going to this game and think sligo with the home support will pull through.

€5 returns €90.56

In-play: €25
Closing Bank: €70(-€30)

Sir Vival

Sir Vival wrote: »

Today's selections:

(1) Limerick v Westmeath(+3) @8/11

(2) Donegal(-4) v Antrim @8/13.

€20 double returns €48.36

Bet Wins, Westmeath win by 2pts and Donegal ease to a 9pt victory

Also a sneak treble of the following...

(1) Limerick v Westmeath @2/1

(2) Derry v Meath @15/8

(3) Sligo v Laois @11/10

€5 returns €90.56

Treble loses, Westmeath won, Meath scored 3-8 and still lost, Sligo should have won but lost by 3pts.

No more wallowing between profit and loss, pushing on from here and that's that...

In-play: €0
Closing Bank: €118.36(+€18.36)

jive

^ Thanks for the reasoning on the bets above.

Usually just follow your bets as they are but didn't have enough in the account due to taking some out! Took Westmeath +2@evens, Tyrone -1@5/6 and Donegal -4@8/13.

Sir Vival

jive wrote: »

^ Thanks for the reasoning on the bets above.

Usually just follow your bets as they are but didn't have enough in the account due to taking some out! Took Westmeath +2@evens, Tyrone -1@5/6 and Donegal -4@8/13.

Thanks but it's been a rocky ride for me, think leaving me bets til the day of the match is the way forward. Could have been over-thinking a lot of games. Just going with gut now.

Prefer the club championships to be honest though, they'll probably start in about 6 weeks or so.