Soldie's Football Log

Soldie

Hi there,

In the past I've had some limited success betting on football matches as an ordinary punter; I've bet on teams I thought would win, even if the odds were on the short side, and filled up accumulators with what I deemed to be certain winners. Sometimes I won, and sometimes I lost, but the inconsistencies have lead me to question as to whether or not I've been taking the correct approach. As such, I've decided to dip my toe into value betting.

I'll be using this log as a very small-stakes experiment in which I will bet on teams that I deem to be (reasonably) overpriced, regardless of whether or not they're an underdog. Bets will typically be a puny 1% of my bankroll, but it is my hope that, in the long run, this will be a profitable strategy. I realise that an important part of such a strategy is to shop around for odds, but at the moment I only have an account on Paddy Power, and so all of my bets will be placed there. I intend to use this thread to log football bets exclusively, although, on occasion, I bet on other sports, and I'll be using the same bankroll for that.

After having withdrawn money earlier today (and losing a bet this evening -- not a good omen!) my bankroll currently stands at €11.55.

Regards,
Soldie

Soldie

02/02/11 Italian Serie A - Parma v Lecce - €0.10 on Lecce and Draw at 2.10

02/02/11 English Premier League - Blackburn v Tottenham Hotspur - €0.10 on Blackburn Rovers at 3.00

Bankroll = €11.35

Soldie

Lecce win and Blackburn lose, leaving with me a profit of €0.01. Some wins in other bets placed before I started this log (screenshot) boost my bankroll, however. I'd initially planned to bet on Lecce to win at odds of 5.50 (I think), but I bottled it and went for the double chance as a safer bet. I thought about backing Fulham to beat Newcastle as well, but, even though they did end up winning, I don't think there was much value to be had in betting on them.

Bankroll = €16.21

Soldie

03/02/11 Brazilian Carioca 1 - Flamengo v Nova Iguaçu - €0.10 on Nova Iguaçu at 8.00

Bankroll = €16.11

Soldie

Flamengo won 1-0, so the above bet loses. I won a small amount on last night's basketball, and also made a bet on tonight's game (screenshot), too, but I intend for this log to be football only, so I will not detail my other gambling exploits here. I will provide screenshots to explain discrepancies in my bankroll, however.

03/02/11 Copa del Sol - Karpaty Lviv v Aalesunds - €0.17 on Karpaty Lviv at 1.90

03/02/11 Italian Serie A - Bari v Inter Milan - €0.17 on Inter Milan -1 at 2.30

04/02/11 Copa Libertadores - Deportivo Petare v Cerro Porteno - €0.17 on Over 2.5 Goals at 2.10

Bankroll = €17.49

Soldie

Karpaty Lviv v Aalesunds and Deportivo Petare v Cerro Porteno both finish up 1-1, meaning I lose both of those bets. Inter Milan net two late goals to help with damage limitation, meaning the day's football losses amount to €0.12. My run of luck in the basketball betting continues, however, mitigating my football losses (screenshot).

Here are my picks for today:

04/02/11 Italian Serie B - Reggina v Padova - €0.17 on Padova and Draw at 1.70

04/02/11 Belgian Second Division - Royal Boussu Dour Borinage v KV Turnhout - €0.15 on KV Turnhout at 3.20

04/02/11 Portuguese Primeira Liga - Sporting Lisbon v Naval 1º de Maio - €0.15 on Naval 1º de Maio and Draw at 3.60

04/02/11 German 2. Bundesliga - Osnabrück v FC Augsburg - €0.15 on Osnabrück at 3.20

04/02/11 Dutch Eerste Divisie - RKC Waalwijk v Helmond Sport - €0.15 on Helmond Sport and Draw at 2.00

04/02/11 Dutch Eredivisie - Ajax v De Graafschap - €0.15 on De Graafschap And Draw at 6.00

04/02/11 French Championnat National - Creteil v Fréjus St-Raphaël - €0.15 on Fréjus St-Raphaël and Draw at 1.50

04/02/11 French Championnat National - Rouen v Paris FC - €0.15 on Rouen at 2.00

04/02/11 French Championnat National - Luzenac v Beauvais - €0.15 on Luzenac at 2.62

04/02/11 German Bundesliga - Borussia Dortmund v Schalke 04 - €0.15 on Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80

04/02/11 German Bundesliga - Borussia Dortmund v Schalke 04 - €0.15 on Red Card at 3.20

So, a good few more picks than before. Here's hoping it doesn't go pear-shaped.

Bankroll = €17.70

Soldie

Yesterday was a poor day. A total of €1.67 was staked, and, with returns of only €1.06, yesterday's football losses amounted to €0.61. Once again, my basketball bets softened the blow somewhat (screenshot). Unfortunately, I couldn't make it online earlier on in order to bet on some of today's games that I'd been eyeing up last night, but I suppose I ought to defy all betting logic by forcing a few picks.

Here are some picks from today's remaining games:

05/02/11 Dutch Eredivisie - PSV v ADO Den Haag - €0.17 on Ado Den Haag and Draw at 3.75

05/02/11 Italian Serie A - Cagliari v Juventus - €0.17 on Ado Den Haag and Draw at 2.10

05/02/11 French Championnat National - Rodez v Gap - €0.17 on Draw at 3.20

05/02/11 French Championnat National - Alfortville v Pacy Vallée-d'Eure - €0.17 on Pacy Vallée-d'Eure at 2.40

05/02/11 Belgian Pro League - Charleroi v Zulte-Waregem - €0.17 on Zulte-Waregem at 2.15

Bankroll = €17.79

Soldie

I have a few more picks for tonight. I also bet €0.79 on tonight's basketball, if anyone's wondering about the discrepancy in my bankroll.

05/02/11 Mexican Primera División - Santos Laguna v Tigres - €0.17 on Tigres at 3.75

05/02/11 Mexican Primera División - San Luis v Estudiantes Tecos - €0.17 on San Luis at 1.75

05/02/11 Uruguayan Primera División - Danubio v Cerro - €0.17 on Danubio at 1.66

05/02/11 Uruguayan Primera División - Defensor Sporting v Atletico River Plate - €0.17 on Defensor Sporting at 1.66

Bankroll = €16.32

Soldie

I've just spotted a copy and paste fail: In the second bet in post #7, the pick should read "Cagliari", not "ADO Den Haag and Draw". I don't want to edit the post now, as the games have been played.

Yesterday was slightly kinder to me, but only insofar as my football bets lost me slightly less than the day before. A total of €1.53 was staked on the football; all of the bets in yesterday's first post lost, and all of the bets in yesterday's second post won, so my returns amounted to €1.50. The bets in the French Championnat National looked like they were home and dry with 20 minutes to go, but lady (bad) luck dashed my hopes. Once again, my basketball bets saved my bacon (screenshot).

Today's bets:

06/02/11 Belgian Pro League - KRC Genk v Club Brugge KV - €0.16 on Club Brugge KV at 3.00

06/02/11 Belgian Pro League - Germinal Beerschot v Lokeren - €0.16 on Lokeren at 2.60

06/02/11 Belgian Pro League - AS Eupen v Standard Liège - €0.16 on AS Eupen at 4.33

06/02/11 Belgian Second Division - Oud-Heverlee Leuven v Mons - €0.16 on Oud-Heverlee Leuven at 2.20

06/02/11 Spanish Segunda División - Ponferradina v Alcorcón - €0.16 on Draw at 3.00

06/02/11 Dutch Eredivisie - FC Utrecht v FC Twente - €0.16 on FC Utrecht at 2.87

06/02/11 Portuguese Primeira Liga - Académica v Beira-Mar - €0.16 on Beira-Mar at 2.87

06/02/11 Portuguese Primeira Liga - União de Leiria v Olhanense - €0.16 on Draw at 3.00

06/02/11 Portuguese Liga de Honra - Arouca v Santa Clara - €0.16 on Arouca at 1.90

06/02/11 Portuguese Liga de Honra - Penafield v Varzim - €0.16 on Varzim at 3.50

06/02/11 Uruguayan Primera División - Rampla Juniors v Liverpool Montevideo - €0.16 on Liverpool Montevideo at 2.50

06/02/11 English Premier League - Chelsea v Liverpool - €0.16 on Chelsea at 1.61

06/02/11 German 2. Bundesliga - VfL Bochum v Rot-Weiß Oberhausen
06/02/11 Portuguese Liga de Honra - Leixões v Sporting Covilhã - €0.16 on VfL Bochum and Leixões at 1.96

Bankroll = €17.87

Soldie

I had bet on Alvaro Quiros to place at the Qatar Masters before starting this log, and that's just come in (screenshot).

A few more picks for today:

06/02/11 French Ligue 1 - Auxerre v Lille - €0.16 on Lille at 2.10

06/02/11 Italian Serie A - Lecce v Palermo - €0.16 on Lecce at 3.00

06/02/11 Italian Serie A - Lazio v Chievo - €0.16 on Draw at 3.30

06/02/11 Italian Serie A - Brescia v Bari - €0.16 on Draw at 3.10

Bankroll = €17.82

Soldie

€0.34 was bet on tonight's basketball.

Even more picks for today:

06/02/11 South American Youth Championship - Argentina v Brazil - €0.16 on Brazil at 1.90

06/02/11 Chilean Primera División - Palestino v Unión Española - €0.16 on Palestino at 2.50

06/02/11 Colombian Primera A - Deportivo Cali v Cúcuta Deportivo - €0.16 on Deportivo Cali at 1.83

06/02/11 Colombian Primera A - Millonarios v Atlético Huila - €0.16 on Millionarios at 2.05

06/02/11 German Bundesliga - Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - €0.16 on Freiburg at 2.10

06/02/11 Spanish La Liga - Valencia v Hércules - €0.16 on Valencia -1 at 2.25

Bankroll = €16.52

Soldie

Another €0.34 staked on the basketball, and one last football bet for the day:

06/02/11 Brazilian Carioca 1 - Fluminense v Botafogo - €0.16 on Fluminense at 2.25

Some (very few, I might add) of today's bets have come in, but I'll report on the details tomorrow.

Bankroll = €17.21

Soldie

Yesterday was one of those facepalm days in which I had something like the Midas touch, except with everything I touched turning to shíte instead of gold. A total of €3.82 was staked on the football over the course of the day, and, with returns amounting to a paltry €1.85, the day's football losses totalled €1.97. On the one hand, I'm inclined to say that I simply bet on too many games over the weekend, but, on the other hand, I think I was quite unlucky yesterday, as much as I hate to say it. Late goals were scored in around six of the games I had bet on, ruining my bets in those. Nevertheless, I think I will tone down the number of weekend bets I make. My bankroll management is also ensuring that my losses don't cripple me too much, and my winnings in the basketball aren't too bad, either (screenshot).

Just one pick for now, although I may add more later:

07/02/11 French Ligue 2 - Tours v Evian TG - €0.18 on Evian TG at 2.87

Bankroll = €18.63

Soldie

€1.02 has been staked on tonight's basketball, and I have two more football bets for today.

07/02/11 Copa del Sol - Karpaty Lviv v Shaktar Donetsk - €0.17 on Karpaty Lviv at 5.00

07/02/11 Dutch Eredivisie - Almere City v MVV Maastricht - €0.17 on Under 2.5 Goals at 2.37

Bankroll = €17.27

Soldie

In terms of my football bets, yesterday was a better day. I staked €0.52 over three bets and had returns of €0.85, leaving me with a profit of €0.33. My hot streak in the basketball, however, ended with a whimper. I lost €0.13 after having staked €1.87 over 11 bets (screenshot).

Today's picks:

08/02/11 International Friendly - Ivory Coast v Mali - €0.18 on Ivory Coast -1 at 3.10

08/02/11 International Friendly - Ivory Coast v Mali - €0.18 on Over 2.5 Goals at 2.25

08/02/11 International Friendly - Romania v Ukraine - €0.18 on Ukraine Draw No Bet at 1.66

08/02/11 French Championnat National - Colmar v Créteil - €0.18 on Draw at 2.87

08/02/11 French Championnat National - Colmar v Créteil - €0.18 on Draw 0-0 at 6.50

Bankroll = €18.11

kryogen

Can you tell me why you are betting so low?

whats the point in this i mean, it would take forever to build up any sort of money, as in you couldnt ever think about being in a position to withdraw profits, so is it just a patience exercise or seeing how far you can make it before you crack?

Im genuinely interested as to why you are doing this

Soldie

I'm not betting low in relative terms; I'm betting roughly 1% of my bankroll with each bet, which is an appropriate amount to take into account variance. The reason I'm betting low in real terms is because I'm using this thread to try a different approach to betting. I'm trying to look for odds that I think are overpriced instead of just looking for supposed "sure winners", because in doing so I think there's profit to be had in the long term. If I'm successful with this, then I'll put more money into my account in order to have a proper go at it.

Soldie

I overstretched myself with the basketball betting last night and lost a small chunk of my bankroll. The one positive I'll take from it is that it's knocked me down a peg or two, and, as a result, I'm now even more adamant about not betting too much.

A few picks for today's internationals:

09/02/11 International Friendly - Greece U21 v Germany U21 - €0.16 on Greece U21 with Draw No Bet at 2.62

09/02/11 International Friendly - Slovenia U21 v Croatia U21 - €0.16 on Croatia U21 at 2.00

09/02/11 International Friendly - Germany v Italy - €0.16 on Germany at 1.80

09/02/11 International Friendly - Argentina v Portugal - €0.16 on Over 2.5 Goals at 2.10

09/02/11 International Friendly - France v Brazil - €0.16 on Brazil at 2.40

09/02/11 International Friendly - Scotland v Northern Ireland
09/02/11 International Friendly - Holland v Austria
09/02/11 International Friendly - Malta v Switzerland - €0.16 on Scotland, Holland, and Switzerland at 3.49

Bankroll = €16.19