Potential return of Severe Cold from mid February

jimmy.d

if im not mistaking i think the cold returned after a mild spell around this time last year and the year before

partay pooper

whats does this mean in terms of temps and snow fall etc...I am a lowly non chart reader

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Lol I was almost right, the trend is good anyway.

BOM is exceptional this evening!!

+174hrs -



+192hrs -



+204hrs -



+216hrs -



+240hrs -




:eek::D WOW is all I can say!





Dan :cool:

Harps

If that was to happen then you'd probably get a lot of snow in the eastern half of the country and really cold temps elsewhere. It wont happen like that though so dont be expecting anything yet

BLIZZARD7

Party pooper -

It's unlikely to verify but not impossible. In terms of conditions, it would be like December in the east, heavy snow showers building in of the Irish sea, very cold easterly winds and very low temperatures and Dew points.





Dan :cool:

Calibos

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Party pooper -

It's unlikely to verify but not impossible. In terms of conditions, it would be like December in the east, heavy snow showers building in of the Irish sea, very cold easterly winds and very low temperatures, Dew points.





Dan :cool:

Would all the snow shadows be in the same places over Bray like December though?





:rolleyes:

BLIZZARD7

Hahaha it would depend on the exact wind direction, ESE, E, ENE and so on, the shadow would move or wouldn't be there at all if we got big bands of snow.





Dan :cool:

partay pooper

thanks I look forward to the last blast of winter

oisingeogho

BEASTERLY

oisingeogho wrote: »

Bad if you want cold and snow.:(

BLIZZARD7

oisingeogho wrote: »

Bad for proper cold and snow, I'd Bin the 18z to be honest. Dosent look plausible to me at all. Not just because it dosent show what I want it too but because of the way it's modelling heights over iberia, it's at odds with the other models.

Important models to watch tomorrow = ECM/UKMO and then the GFS and maybe the BOM.





Dan :cool:

thetonynator

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Bad for proper cold and snow, I'd Bin the 18z to be honest. Dosent look plausible to me at all. Not just because it dosent show what I want it too but because of the way it's modelling heights over iberia, it's at odds with the other models.

Important models to watch tomorrow = ECM/UKMO and then the GFS and maybe the BOM.





Dan :cool:

is the inclusion of the BOM on that list pure optimism on the basis of todays run?! :P

BLIZZARD7

thetonynator wrote: »

is the inclusion of the BOM on that list pure optimism on the basis of todays run?! :P

Pooossibly :rolleyes:

But I think it's a reasonable model, it was the first one to pick out the easterly, whether it happens or not is another question though. I think its based on the ECM as well, so it can't be too wrong.





Dan :cool:

yes the Jägerbomb model is certainly drinking it's own juices lately.

Meanwhile in the real world....

Speak Now

GFS 06z shows the frigid air even further east.
GFS 00z ensembles were nothing special either.
Looking like a non runner for snow lovers.

Harps

BOM is the only model with anything remotely iinteresting at the moment so looks like more nothingness for the week ahead

oisingeogho

as usual it will just be a load of nothing

Elmer Blooker

It wouldn't be winter without a phantom Scandi high. I've been waiting for a decent easterly since 1996!

ps. theres a forthsythia bush in my garden about to burst into flower - about a month early as it usually flowers around St Pat's Day. This shows the absence of any real frost since Xmas- what a pathetic winter - up there with the likes of 88/9 and 97/8!

popflop

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It wouldn't be winter without a phantom Scandi high. I've been waiting for a decent easterly since 1996!

ps. theres a forthsythia bush in my garden about to burst into flower - about a month early as it usually flowers around St Pat's Day. This shows the absence of any real frost since Xmas- what a pathetic winter - up there with the likes of 88/9 and 97/8!

You got the snow Gods angry. Be aware!

BLIZZARD7

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It wouldn't be winter without a phantom Scandi high. I've been waiting for a decent easterly since 1996!

ps. theres a forthsythia bush in my garden about to burst into flower - about a month early as it usually flowers around St Pat's Day. This shows the absence of any real frost since Xmas- what a pathetic winter - up there with the likes of 88/9 and 97/8!

Well we will get a scandi high, it's the easterly bit thats phantom.

Where were you in December??!! Or the end of November!!? This winter has being rubbish since New years, but December is winter, you can't class a winter as pathetic based on the fact that all 3 months didn't have prolonged severe cold and heavy snow, not in Ireland anyway. This is the best winter I've ever experienced!






Dan :cool:

oisingeogho

so all is lost?

BLIZZARD7

oisingeogho wrote: »

so all is lost?

Not yet...


UKMO 12z is Pretty good at +144hrs -

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?09-17





Dan :cool:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

delw

god dam them FI charts for teasing us & getting our hopes up

John.Icy

I don't think anyone is getting too excied, were just commenting on the possibly huge potential.

Each big model has energy in the Atlantic going SE, with a Scandi in place, an easterly is never too far off, even though all models, bar BOM don't produce one.

At 144, which is my new cut off point for looking, due to me including the full UKMO run, I'm happy with today, regaurdless of what past that shows, because half the models start flingin around shortwaves all over the place, which won't happen. FI stays at around 92-100, but anything withing 144 is still reasonable to look at, even though theres changes in that time from run to run.

UKMO 144 is a great chart, undercutting low, and if the high to our NE was slightly further South and if there was a next chart I'd be certain it would show an easterly.

thetonynator

John.Icy wrote: »

I don't think anyone is getting too excied, were just commenting on the possibly huge potential.

Each big model has energy in the Atlantic going SE, with a Scandi in place, an easterly is never too far off, even though all models, bar BOM don't produce one.

At 144, which is my new cut off point for looking, due to me including the full UKMO run, I'm happy with today, regaurdless of what past that shows, because half the models start flingin around shortwaves all over the place, which won't happen. FI stays at around 92-100, but anything withing 144 is still reasonable to look at, even though theres changes in that time from run to run.

UKMO 144 is a great chart, undercutting low, and if the high to our NE was slightly further South and if there was a next chart I'd be certain it would show an easterly.

the problem isn't whats on the models, it's the fact that it never gets closer. There could be a roaring easterly at 144hrs, but in 48 hours time, we're still talking about the same easterly, except it's still at 144, and never gets closer. Often further away, often vanishes altogether, but never closer than 144.

John.Icy

thetonynator wrote: »

the problem isn't whats on the models, it's the fact that it never gets closer. There could be a roaring easterly at 144hrs, but in 48 hours time, we're still talking about the same easterly, except it's still at 144, and never gets closer. Often further away, often vanishes altogether, but never closer than 144.

I see what your saying, but in fairness deep cold was always on models coming in from the 13th-15th of Feb, its the 8th of Febuary, and anything nd everything could pop up by then, though unlikely we get a huge easterly, potential is still there, albeit it low, the potential is there, ala BOM the past day.:D

thetonynator

John.Icy wrote: »

I don't think anyone is getting too excied, were just commenting on the possibly huge potential.

Each big model has energy in the Atlantic going SE, with a Scandi in place, an easterly is never too far off, even though all models, bar BOM don't produce one.

At 144, which is my new cut off point for looking, due to me including the full UKMO run, I'm happy with today, regaurdless of what past that shows, because half the models start flingin around shortwaves all over the place, which won't happen. FI stays at around 92-100, but anything withing 144 is still reasonable to look at, even though theres changes in that time from run to run.

UKMO 144 is a great chart, undercutting low, and if the high to our NE was slightly further South and if there was a next chart I'd be certain it would show an easterly.

Is it just me, or does it look like this image, if this easterly developed, would have the whole northern europe and northern atlantic pretty cold?! Can't wait to see the 00z. . :cool:

derekon

thetonynator wrote: »

Is it just me, or does it look like this image, if this easterly developed, would have the whole northern europe and northern atlantic pretty cold?! Can't wait to see the 00z. . :cool:

Hi Tonynator,

From my limited knowledge of the weather models - the above chart would leave countries like Poland, Sweden, Finland & Russia in very frigid air.

However, Ireland & Britain would just have cool winter days with temps of around +5oC or +6oC (just add on about 9 or 10oC to the upper 850 temps to get an idea of what it would feel like outside).

Folks, I think its time to call it a day in terms of any severe cold spell for Ireland for the remainder of winter 2010/2011. This model chasing is akin to the donkey chasing the carrot. Always close but never quite there. Stop teasing yourselves and look forward now to some decent Spring weather and the gradual stretch in the evenings......:D

delw

derekon wrote: »

Hi Tonynator,

From my limited knowledge of the weather models - the above chart would leave countries like Poland, Sweden, Finland & Russia in very frigid air.

However, Ireland & Britain would just have cool winter days with temps of around +5oC or +6oC (just add on about 9 or 10oC to the upper 850 temps to get an idea of what it would feel like outside).

Folks, I think its time to call it a day in terms of any severe cold spell for Ireland for the remainder of winter 2010/2011. This model chasing is akin to the donkey chasing the carrot. Always close but never quite there. Stop teasing yourselves and look forward now to some decent Spring weather and the gradual stretch in the evenings......:D

derek you could be right about the rest of this winter but nothing saying we'll get decent weather if atlantic keeps brewing up low after low,one thing we are sure of is the stretch in the evening so fingers crossed for a nice spring but lets see what gets thrown up for rest of feb & march

2 points to bear in mind about that ukmo.
Firstly at +100,it's indicative only and very subject to change.
2nd point is that it's pretty likely that the frigid air is going to be out East so it will be available and pretty potent should an easterly develop.

If it's mid march onwards before it heads west though,I simply don't want to know and thats the form horse.