Phonics Irish Sports Betting Challenge

Phonics

Well ive been a long time follower of the challenges and logs and decided it was finally time to register and have a go myself. Great admirer of all who give their time to the logs and explain thier choices and really gives a reader a chance to make an informed decision(x pyro and nulty to name 2 and sir vival though he had a bad weekend seems like someone who knows what hes talking about).
A brief background on me is that i used to work in a bookies and this is where i began my gambling. Im not a winning punter but by doing this log im hoping to disclipline my gambling on events(which will be explained in next paragraph)where i feel i can have a an edge over the traders. Ive found my problem in the past has been making money on events where i feel i have an edge but throwing it away on horses and dogs stupidly so i have set up a fresh a/c with powers making a £500 deposit.
Now as the title suggests its irish sports which ill be playing, mainly GAA and Airtricty Football. Historically ive been a profitable player in the various markets on these 2 sports. I feel i have a decent knowledge of both and follow both my local football and gaelic teams(some may find this very odd!!). For the last couple of years ive tried to immerse myself with as much knowledge from the internet as possible so as to try and build an edge e.g im a member on 12 of the 22 airticity leagues various forums for fans which are an invaluable tool.
Anyway this is starting to get crazy long so feel free to comment and if ya fancy anything that will interest me in Irish markets let me know!!My aim is to try and turn this £500 into £2500 by November and as i say will be mainly Airtricity Football and Gaa i will be playing. My first selections will be for Round 2 of National Football League. Good Luck alll

Gavin "shels"

Good to see someone else going with some LoI betting, have my own log I started mid-season last season for just my LoI bets. Good luck mate.

iggy

Best of luck. I will keep an interest in this log.

Phonics

Gavin shels wrote: »

Good to see someone else going with some LoI betting, have my own log I started mid-season last season for just my LoI bets. Good luck mate.

Ya just had a look at your thread there, you had some finish to the season?!!!will mainly be the LOI ill be using for this log with some GAA thrown in. As an aside,what do ya think of Shels chances this season?Matthews seems to have delevoped a decent squad and i think he will be a decent manager at that level??

Was too tired last nite to mention my staking system aswell. For the purposes of this log and for my own discipline my max bet will never be more than 25% of my bank at any 1 time. Will probably do my staking in increments of 5% aswell so it can be like a points system when selecting and placing my bets.

Phonics

First bet placed tonight on this weekends national hurling league on PP.
Antrim 1/2- really cant believe this price and cant actually seeing it been there for too long. I can only assume they are this price because they are travelling to the opposite end of the country but they are an improving side and should be a cut above some of the weaker teams in this division.
Waterford 4/9- Have made a decent start to the season winning the Waterford Chrystal Cup last weekend, beating Cork in the final. I think for the last few years the Dubs have been a bit over-rated but have had some decent league results though they have a woeful record in Waterford.

2 points Double- 10% of bank
£50 double-potential returns-108.33

Gavin "shels"

Phonics wrote: »

Ya just had a look at your thread there, you had some finish to the season?!!!will mainly be the LOI ill be using for this log with some GAA thrown in. As an aside,what do ya think of Shels chances this season?Matthews seems to have delevoped a decent squad and i think he will be a decent manager at that level??

Gonna be another tough season, Waterford, Limerick and Cork all looking strong too, with Finn Harps being the darkhorses this season imo. We've only 12 players announced officially, although we've had 22 players training with us, if we manage to sign all 22 we've a quality side with a mix of young lads and some quality experience (Dave McGill, Cassidy, Mulvenna, etc...). We need another decent striker though and we could be set for promotion, finally. Once the 3rd of March hits and all the squads are announced I'll be doing a decent sized bet on Shels I'd say along with Sligo and Bray e/w.

Support anyone yourself?

Phonics

Bad start to the log, antrim won by 6 but Waterford only drew after conceding 2 points in injury time in what seemed like a decent game for this time of year. Ah well, onwards and upwards and will be back sometime next week for next weekends football.

Current Balance-£450

Phonics

Gavin shels wrote: »

Gonna be another tough season, Waterford, Limerick and Cork all looking strong too, with Finn Harps being the darkhorses this season imo. We've only 12 players announced officially, although we've had 22 players training with us, if we manage to sign all 22 we've a quality side with a mix of young lads and some quality experience (Dave McGill, Cassidy, Mulvenna, etc...). We need another decent striker though and we could be set for promotion, finally. Once the 3rd of March hits and all the squads are announced I'll be doing a decent sized bet on Shels I'd say along with Sligo and Bray e/w.

Support anyone yourself?

Ya a Sligo Rovers fan. Wasnt very confident just into new year and then we re-sign the nucleus of our squad and make a couple of good additions and up until Fingal went bust i taught it was a definite 2 horse race between us and Shams. Fingal folding wont be of any help to us as id imagine Finn and Williams will go to Shams making them a lot stronger. Bolger and Hawkins appear to have signed for Dundalk and after that id only really want Byrne or O'Neill but cant see either of them moving down here. If pats signed them 2 and i think they have signed Mc Faul they could be real contenders. At the minute i just think our price is too small and would probably wait till a few games in to have a bet on us as we are notoriously slow starters since Cook has been at the club.

Phonics

After a fairly unlucky start to this challenge last week im hoping to get back into small profit this week with a double on the football.
Tyrone 1/2- Have had a rocky start to the year with Mickey Hartes 2 bereavements but have impressed me any time they played and that even includes their loss to Derry. Donegal were very lucky in round 1 to escape with a draw against Sligo who had a pretty experimental side out and i think Tyrone with home advantage on what is sure to be another emotional occasion for them will be too strong
Laois 4/9- Laois to me were the surprise of the opening day with a decent victory over Meath. Although only based on 1 performance they seemed to return to playing with a bit of fire which they have been missing over the last few years. Again though the weakness of the opposition is factored into this bet as i believe Antrim are now at a level that is just too far above them. A big defeat at home on the opening day will have done them no favors as over the last 2 seasons they have been very formidable at home so its Laois for me.
3 points double with 15% of bank on the line
Current Bank-450
Total stake-£67.50
Potential Return-£146.25
New Bank-382.50

Phonics

Phonics wrote: »

After a fairly unlucky start to this challenge last week im hoping to get back into small profit this week with a double on the football.
Tyrone 1/2- Have had a rocky start to the year with Mickey Hartes 2 bereavements but have impressed me any time they played and that even includes their loss to Derry. Donegal were very lucky in round 1 to escape with a draw against Sligo who had a pretty experimental side out and i think Tyrone with home advantage on what is sure to be another emotional occasion for them will be too strong
Laois 4/9- Laois to me were the surprise of the opening day with a decent victory over Meath. Although only based on 1 performance they seemed to return to playing with a bit of fire which they have been missing over the last few years. Again though the weakness of the opposition is factored into this bet as i believe Antrim are now at a level that is just too far above them. A big defeat at home on the opening day will have done them no favors as over the last 2 seasons they have been very formidable at home so its Laois for me.
3 points double with 15% of bank on the line
Current Bank-450
Total stake-£67.50
Potential Return-£146.25
New Bank-382.50

Was so annoyed with Tyrones performance against Donegal that let this bet down that i didnt even want to look at last weekends betting so i took myself up to watch Sligo get mauled by.....ya you guessed it TYRONE!!Anyway will be concentrating a lot less on the Gaa now that the Loi has started back up and strongly fancy a couple of teams this weekend that will either cause a big dent in the balance or get me right back on track.
St Pats 8-11- Pats should be good enough this year to at least qualify for Europe and actually are my idea of real dark horses for the title. This bet, however, is basically beacuase of how woeful Galway going to be this year especially early in the year. They have assembled a sqaud of largely amateur players and the club has been in serious trouble in the off-season. This is an absolute 5 pointer nap for me!!
Shels 5-4- Couldnt quite believe this price when i seen it and i think someone said its been even bigger than this. When i priced it up i had Shels as 8-11 shots so am more to happy to back them at this price. The addition of Conan Byrne to an already decent squad managed by what i think a very good manager at this level should see them go very close to winning what should be a good Div 1 this year. I think the top 4 of Shels, Lims, Cork and Waterford should be a lot stronger that the rest if the teams in this league. 4 points for me.
Gonna have 2 singles and a double on these 2.
Current Bank 387.50
St Pats(5 points)25% of bank-97(rounded up)-potential returns-167.55
Shels(4 points)20% of new bank-58-potential returns-130.50
Double 2 points 10% of new bank-24-potential returns-93.27

So all in all im staking 179 and if all comes of will be returning 391.32.....heres hoping!!!!!!!!!!

Phonics

Phonics wrote: »

Was so annoyed with Tyrones performance against Donegal that let this bet down that i didnt even want to look at last weekends betting so i took myself up to watch Sligo get mauled by.....ya you guessed it TYRONE!!Anyway will be concentrating a lot less on the Gaa now that the Loi has started back up and strongly fancy a couple of teams this weekend that will either cause a big dent in the balance or get me right back on track.
St Pats 8-11- Pats should be good enough this year to at least qualify for Europe and actually are my idea of real dark horses for the title. This bet, however, is basically beacuase of how woeful Galway going to be this year especially early in the year. They have assembled a sqaud of largely amateur players and the club has been in serious trouble in the off-season. This is an absolute 5 pointer nap for me!!
Shels 5-4- Couldnt quite believe this price when i seen it and i think someone said its been even bigger than this. When i priced it up i had Shels as 8-11 shots so am more to happy to back them at this price. The addition of Conan Byrne to an already decent squad managed by what i think a very good manager at this level should see them go very close to winning what should be a good Div 1 this year. I think the top 4 of Shels, Lims, Cork and Waterford should be a lot stronger that the rest if the teams in this league. 4 points for me.
Gonna have 2 singles and a double on these 2.
Current Bank 387.50
St Pats(5 points)25% of bank-97(rounded up)-potential returns-167.55
Shels(4 points)20% of new bank-58-potential returns-130.50
Double 2 points 10% of new bank-24-potential returns-93.27

So all in all im staking 179 and if all comes of will be returning 391.32.....heres hoping!!!!!!!!!!

Good weekend, both winners!!new balance is 599.82

CheckRaiseIRL

Well done last weekend.

Just a word of advice. Finding value bets is only half the battle. If you bet too high a percentage of your bankroll than your perceived edge allows you will lose in the long run regardless. Your bets at the weekend were a prime example of what im talking about.

Have a read about the kelly criterion. There are online calculators and i recommend using a half kelly stake and avoiding having one selection as a single and also in an accumulator.

good luck.

Phonics

CheckRaiseIRL wrote: »

Well done last weekend.

Just a word of advice. Finding value bets is only half the battle. If you bet too high a percentage of your bankroll than your perceived edge allows you will lose in the long run regardless. Your bets at the weekend were a prime example of what im talking about.

Have a read about the kelly criterion. There are online calculators and i recommend using a half kelly stake and avoiding having one selection as a single and also in an accumulator.

good luck.

Cheers for the advice mate. Kind of taught that last weekend when i noticed how much of my bank was remaining had last weekend been a losing one. Ive been trying since the start of this log and bank to relate my staking percentage to the points system by which i fancy. Last weekend i probably had too much of my bank in play but i really fancied the 2 teams and i wouldnt expect to have that percentage of my bank in play at one time but again it was based on how much i fancied those teams. Have been working on a few formulas in relation to my staking and points system but for the minute i will be staying with my same system. Cheers for taking an interest and for the advice tho.

Phonics

Only team i really fancy this weekend is Derry City who i taught looked very impressive in the second half against us last weekend and could have nicked it in the second half and were caught by a sucker-punch by us on the break. I dont see any reason as to why they cant go on and push for at least a top 4 spot in the league. Ucd have had a very high turnover of players this season and looking at their squad i think they are going to struggle this year. In fact last weekend they needed an 80th minute winner against a side who i believe will be the worst premier division team to line up in a long long time. So at the prices its Derry for me.
Derry City 13/10-2 points-10% of bank-60-potential returns-138

Phonics

Phonics wrote: »

Only team i really fancy this weekend is Derry City who i taught looked very impressive in the second half against us last weekend and could have nicked it in the second half and were caught by a sucker-punch by us on the break. I dont see any reason as to why they cant go on and push for at least a top 4 spot in the league. Ucd have had a very high turnover of players this season and looking at their squad i think they are going to struggle this year. In fact last weekend they needed an 80th minute winner against a side who i believe will be the worst premier division team to line up in a long long time. So at the prices its Derry for me.
Derry City 13/10-2 points-10% of bank-60-potential returns-138

Winner winner. New balance-677.82

Phonics

Right im hopeful of making it 3 from 3 on the loi this weekend and strongly fancy Derry City away versus Drogheda to keep the run going. Even at 8-11 i think its real value bet as i reckon maybe half way through the season they would be about 1-2. Derry seemed to be impressive enough last weekend away to ucd last weekend and could have won by a greater margin than the 2 goal scoreline. Drogheda while seeming to be well organised as would be expected under Mick Cooke appear to be resiillient as seen from thier opening two 1-0 defeats but i think over time they may prove to be worst team at this level for a long time. I think Derry will have way too much attacking firepower for them and this is the only real value i see this weekend so its a max 5 pointer for me.
Derry City-5 points-25% of balance-170-potential returns-293.64