Scotland vs Wales, Murrayfield, Sat 12 Feb 5pm; RTÉ2/BBC2

thomond2006

VS

Scotland:
15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Joe Ansbro, 12 Nick De Luca, 11 Max Evans, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Rory Lawson,
8 Kelly Brown, 7 John Barclay, 6 Nathan Hines, 5 Al Kellock (capt), 4 Richie Gray, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Rosss Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen.

Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Moray Low, 18 Richie Vernon, 19 Ross Rennie, 20 Mike Blair, 21 Ruaridh Jackson, 22 Sean Lamont

Wales:
15 Lee Byrne, 14 Morgan Stoddart, 13 Jamie Roberts, 12 Jonathan Davies, 11 Shane Williams, 10 James Hook, 9 Mike Phillips,
8 Ryan Jones, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Craig Mitchell, 2 Matthew Rees (c), 1 Paul James.

Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 John Yapp, 18 Jonathan Thomas, 19 Josh Turnbull , 20 Tavis Knoyle, 21 Stephen Jones, 22 Rhys Priestland.

Date: Saturday, February 12
Kick-off: 17:00 GMT
Venue: Murrayfield

Referee: George Clancy (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Simon McDowell (Ireland)
Television match official: Graham Hughes (England)

For the first time in a while, Scotland can consider themselves favourites when they take on Wales on Saturday. This game should answer many questions as to where the Scottish national side is at, are they really turning a corner under Andy Robinson or have their recent performances just been another flash in the pan? They have gone into the last two tournaments as potential 'dark horses' and haven't delivered. Although perhaps last year they wasn't necessarily true, they blew a lead in a thriller against Wales (the most dramatic game in the Six Nations for a long time) and drew with England before finally delivering a result and ruining Ireland's triple crown season in Dublin. This season, they should be targeting 3 home wins (against Wales, Ireland and Italy).

So where are Wales? Are they really as bad as the side that has lost 8 tests on the bounce? In terms of quality on paper, certainly not. The problem is they have suffering from a crisis of confidence, they have forgotten how to win games. There is evidence that the management have become slightly stale, the team doesn't seem to know itself anymore on the field. The lateral running across the field against England was terrible to watch, it was so simple for England to drift across the field and make the hits.

Selections:
Scotland go with the same 22 that lost to France last week. Obviously the management feel that last year's star backrow Johnnie Beattie isn't up to speed yet after just coming back from a long injury layoff.

Wales make three changes to the XV that lost to England. Andy Powell is unavailable through injury so former Wales captain Ryan Jones starts at number eight after making a significant impact off the bench last weekend, Scarlets flanker Josh Turnbull is promoted to a bench spot. James Hook moves from fullback to number 10 with Stephen Jones dropped to the bench, Lee Byrne gets promoted from the bench to start at fullback this weekend. Tavis Knoyle is the replacement scrum-half after Dwayne Peel picked up an injury this week.

Key Head to Head: Dan Parks vs James Hook

Warren Gatland has taken a huge gamble by starting the mercurial James Hook at number 10, but at least it is a positive move. Stephen Jones had a poor game against England and both Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies were being starved of possession. When Hook was moved to 10, he was the spark for a revival in the Welsh back play. It has been said he lacks the ability to control a game, but in my opinion that is a phrase that is overused by pundits. He has all the attributes to be a brilliant flyhalf, he possesses brilliant vision and hands and unlike Jones he can pose a threat as a runner. Parks is a different sort of player, primarily a kicking number 10. His skillset is quite limited but what he does well, he does very well. He suits Scotland's gameplan perfectly of playing territory and keeping it tight. There is evidence that Scotland's backline is improving, Joe Ansbro in particular had an excellent game in France. Parks needs to vary his game to get the best of his outside backs. He and Hook are polar opposites in terms of playing style, I expect both 10s to play to their strengths.

Prediction:
As both sides have already lost one game, another loss here ends their hunt for any kind of silverware. Wales can play much better than their current form suggests, they seem to be stuck between playing it wide and keeping it tight. The outcome of Gatland's gamble on James Hook will play a huge part in the result. Scotland will a chip on the shoulder from throwing away this fixture last year in spectacular fashion. I think Scotland are improving, if they score tries I think they will get the win.
Scotland by 6-10 points.

A little memory to finish, this was absolutely outstanding to watch, let's hope for a repeat!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JiBlrEzC7E

---

SRU and WRU logos taken from lionsrugby.com

Player images taken from Planet Rugby/Sky Sports.

Lineups/time/ref taken from:
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3820_6742638,00.html
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3820_6738206,00.html

CouchSmart

Please let this be as entertaining as last year!

corny

Important game for both sides. For Scotland progress has to be backed up by results eventually and they'd be targetting their home games as must wins. If Wales lose here they'll role over against Ireland and France and would be in serious danger of losing all 5 games. Prediction? I'll go for Wales by 4.

thomond2006

CouchSmart wrote: »

Please let this be as entertaining as last year!

I felt so sorry for Scotland last year, they did everything right for 65 minutes. Then their replacement hooker (Lawson I think) got idiotically sinbinned and it all went downhill from there. Wales' comeback was just incredible.

funky penguin

thomond2006 wrote: »

I felt so sorry for Scotland last year, they did everything right for 65 minutes. Then their replacement hooker (Lawson I think) got idiotically sinbinned and it all went downhill from there. Wales' comeback was just incredible.

Not to mention poor Thom Evans, their moral took a massive hit after his injury.

CatFromHue

funky penguin wrote: »

Not to mention poor Thom Evans, their moral took a massive hit after his injury.

i think he is now going out with kelly brook....so as consolation prizes go thats not too bad.

im not sure on james hook at 10 either. there is a reason he hasnt played there in so long. he isnt very good there. last week against the english he looked like a winger or centre who had to play 10 cos the 10 was injured. that with home advantage i do hope the scots win.

tolosenc

Scotland really did snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last year...

toomevara

Should be a cracker, generally is. Scotland by 3.

Noffles

2 teams that both fancy it... should be entertaining

cruiserweight

Not a great opening 10 minutes for Scotland

wixfjord

What a load of bollocks from Ward. You cant run in under a player when the balls in the air. Southwell was looking at the man not the ball too.

ongarite

Dangerous play from Roberts and he didn't get penalised.

cruiserweight

Stupidity there by Davis

menelaus

Scotland need to score while Wales are down to 14, if they are to have any hope of a win

cruiserweight

Well deserved yellow card for Byrne

menelaus

ehhhh 13

ongarite

Wales down to 13 now.
High tackle from Lee Byrne.

Burgo

Down to 13 now!

CouchSmart

wixfjord wrote: »

What a load of bollocks from Ward. You cant run in under a player when the balls in the air. Southwell was looking at the man not the ball too.

Ye was thinking that too, I've always been encouraged to stick my studs out when fielding a ball - to discourage people running under you.

ongarite

Jesus, Scotland are brutal.
They can't break down a 13 man Wales.

cruiserweight

Argh Scotland were in there if he takes it

Noffles

3 points with 13-15...will take that!

Ian_K

wixfjord wrote: »

What a load of bollocks from Ward. You cant run in under a player when the balls in the air. Southwell was looking at the man not the ball too.

Exactly, and he's still going on about it too... only deluding those that dont know the rules

irishbucsfan

Fair play to Wales here.

Only started watching after 20 minutes and missed all their points. It was all Scotland when I was watching! Ansbro needs to relax, two important drops. Doing his best D'Arcy impression

LuckyGent88

Ian_K wrote: »

Exactly, and he's still going on about it too... only deluding those that dont know the rules

Byrne is entitled to have his feet up alright but i dont think 1 should should be outstreched with the studs showing towards a player coming onto a ball.

irishbucsfan

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Byrne is entitled to have his feet up alright but i dont think 1 should should be outstreched with the studs showing towards a player coming onto a ball.

If the player challenged fairly for the ball he wouldn't have a problem.

How Southwell didn't go off, I don't know. Crazy decision

Ian_K

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Byrne is entitled to have his feet up alright but i dont think 1 should should be outstreched with the studs showing towards a player coming onto a ball.

Still Southwells fault for running into it, cant be considered to be "playing the ball" if you stay on the ground in a case like that imo. Should have been a yellow for the Scot, not Byrne as Ward was suggesting

menelaus

Ian_K wrote: »

Still Southwells fault for running into it, cant be considered to be "playing the ball" if you stay on the ground in a case like that imo. Should have been a yellow for the Scot, not Byrne as Ward was suggesting

BBC pundits agreed. They reckoned the only reason he wasn't carded was because he was bleeding!

thomond2006

Just back from town, 3-16 I see.

ongarite

That was terrible from Parks. What was he thinking??

LuckyGent88

thomond2006 wrote: »

Just back from town, 3-16 I see.

Scotland are lucky to be 3...simple as that

Noffles

thomond2006 wrote: »

Just back from town, 3-16 I see.

Gone a bit meh too....

wixfjord

Wow great tackle form Lamont. Both of these teams are ****e though.

wixfjord

Jamie Roberts was 12 stone, and is now 15 stone eh Hugh?
Awful awful commentary.

thunderthing

wixfjord wrote: »

Jamie Roberts was 12 stone, and is now 15 stone eh Hugh?
Awful awful commentary.

"He can drink, have a cup of tea if he likes, and that is that for Scotland"

wtf?

Noffles

wixfjord wrote: »

Wow great tackle form Lamont. Both of these teams are ****e though.

Would say they are playinjg ****e rather than they ARE ****e....

wixfjord

Noffles wrote: »

Would say they are playinjg ****e rather than they ARE ****e....

Wouldn't agree.

Brenireland

rage,I had 100euros on wales to win and a williams hat-trick!

Noffles

wixfjord wrote: »

Wouldn't agree.

On the same principle then, Ireland are also ****e... with plenty of mistakes last week.

toomevara

Thank God that's over, terrible game, terrible performance from Scotland.

CatFromHue

who was man of the match?

wixfjord

Noffles wrote: »

On the same principle then, Ireland are also ****e... with plenty of mistakes last week.

Haha knew you'd bring that up! Very defensive aren't we?
Ireland were ****e last week indeed.

However, we're a far, far better team, with far, far better players, than the two of them. Neither have anything like POC, Heaslip, SOB, Driscoll, Bowe etc. Hook is probably the only player playing today that's on the same world class level as the Irish players I've mentioned.

stephen_n

2 games in and Hooks prediction of Scotland challenging for second is already out the window Christ they are so poor in attack which of course raises even more questions about the French defence! Poor game of rugby!

cruiserweight

CatFromHue wrote: »

who was man of the match?

Sam Warburton got the BBC award

sock puppet

wixfjord wrote: »

Haha knew you'd bring that up! Very defensive aren't we?
Ireland were ****e last week indeed.

However, we're a far, far better team, with far, far better players, than the two of them. Neither have anything like POC, Heaslip, SOB, Driscoll, Bowe etc. Hook is probably the only player playing today that's on the same world class level as the Irish players I've mentioned.

Em Jenkins, Jones and Davies. For Scotland Gray, Cusiter and Beattie. And if you're putting in O'Brien based on club form then Jonathan Davies has had just as good a season.

CouchSmart

wixfjord wrote: »

Haha knew you'd bring that up! Very defensive aren't we?
Ireland were ****e last week indeed.

However, we're a far, far better team, with far, far better players, than the two of them. Neither have anything like POC, Heaslip, SOB, Driscoll, Bowe etc. Hook is probably the only player playing today that's on the same world class level as the Irish players I've mentioned.

They have some small lad on the wing, scores a good few tries.

wixfjord

sock puppet wrote: »

Em Jenkins, Jones and Davies. For Scotland Gray, Cusiter and Beattie. And if you're putting in O'Brien based on club form then Jonathan Davies has had just as good a season.

CouchSmart wrote: »

They have some small lad on the wing, scores a good few tries.

I did say playing today in fairness.
I personally don't actually rate Williams as anywhere near a World 15 tbh, think Bowe is miles better.
Probably right about Davies though SP, think he could be class, but the point I'm making is we've a far better team than either of those two.

Ian_K

Jamie Roberts would walk into our team, particularly afters Darce's exploits last week

irishbucsfan

Ian_K wrote: »

Jamie Roberts would walk into our team, particularly afters Darce's exploits last week

Based on the way he played on the Lions tour in 2009, yes.

Based on the way he has played in every game since the Lions tour in 2009, no.

sock puppet

wixfjord wrote: »

I did say playing today in fairness.
I personally don't actually rate Williams as anywhere near a World 15 tbh, think Bowe is miles better.
Probably right about Davies though SP, think he could be class, but the point I'm making is we've a far better team than either of those two.

Ah right. Williams was unplayable in 2008 but he isn't as good now. Still a great winger though.

Fully fit and in form I don't think Wales are much behind us. You have to admit they're seriously underperforming at the minute and. They have some great players but play with no flair or confidence. For all his good work when he first arrived Gatland seems to have sucked the life out of the side.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Based on the way he played on the Lions tour in 2009, yes.

Based on the way he has played in every game since the Lions tour in 2009, no.

Definitely. Actually a combination I'd like to see is Priestland-Hook-Davies. Three players I love to watch but Priestland isn't really international quality I suppose.

wixfjord

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Based on the way he played on the Lions tour in 2009, yes.

Based on the way he has played in every game since the Lions tour in 2009, no.

Coincidence he was playing with BOD in great form for that Lions team too?