Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2011

HigginsJ

mdwexford wrote: »

It never looks strong strength in depth wise the week before the race. Its all unexposed could be anything novice hurdlers.

Al Ferof has done nothing over hurdles really.
He does kind of have the same profile as Noland but i cant see him winning.

The top two in the market look the ones to focus on for me.

I agree with you that Al Ferof has done very little over hurdles but just the price would attract me to him. Think Cue Card is very good but think something will improve past him at the trip. Spirit Son & Sprinter Sacre have less in the form book than Al Ferof or Zaidpour so would avoid them as they are priced on potential. I personally dont fancy Zaidpour at the trip. So i'm left with Al Ferof.

QED

Morgans

I cant believe the negativity around Cue Card on here. I think there is a big of a hangover from Dunguib last year about it. Impressive bumper winner goes hurdling and starts favourite for the Supreme and gets beaten. They are two entirely different situations.

There will be very very few of this field that would get as close to Menorah as he did. The form he has already shown would be good enough to win virtually all Supremes. I think 2/1 is a big price. Definitely deserves to be that price.

I understand the idea of looking to get the favourite beaten. The Henderson horses look good - especially Spirit Son - but have lots to prove. Sprinter Sacre looks a chaser to me, but is clearly smart. But even at the prices, you are pretty much guessing that they are going to improve past Cue Card. Of course some lads who in one race will dismiss a horse for the lack of festival/course experience will search for an alternative to Cue Card, when he has that.

Cue Card has proven that he can hurdle on decent ground, unlike last years favourite, who went into the race shorter in price when he hadnt even the highest rating in the field. If Cue Card runs his race (not sure there is any reason to suspect he wont, and why any other horse will) it will take a very very smart performance to beat him.

As an outsider Megans Star, is one that might worth a check on the exchanges. But I think you might be playing for places.

Morgans

HigginsJ wrote: »

I agree with you that Al Ferof has done very little over hurdles but just the price would attract me to him. Think Cue Card is very good but think something will improve past him at the trip. Spirit Son & Sprinter Sacre have less in the form book than Al Ferof or Zaidpour so would avoid them as they are priced on potential. I personally dont fancy Zaidpour at the trip. So i'm left with Al Ferof.

QED

Can you explain the "at the trip" bit please?

realdanbreen

Whats the story with Marsh Warbler? Only declared for this yesterday and still down for the Triumph.

mdwexford

HigginsJ wrote: »

I agree with you that Al Ferof has done very little over hurdles but just the price would attract me to him. Think Cue Card is very good but think something will improve past him at the trip. Spirit Son & Sprinter Sacre have less in the form book than Al Ferof or Zaidpour so would avoid them as they are priced on potential. I personally dont fancy Zaidpour at the trip. So i'm left with Al Ferof.

QED

Spirit Son has better hurdles form than anything in the field bar Cue Card.
Ground becoming faster and faster is a worry though.

Al Ferof ew without the fav looks an ok bet, he should run a solid race.

HigginsJ

Morgans wrote: »

Can you explain the "at the trip" bit please?

I think Zaidpour needs 2 1/2 mile on good ground to be seen at his best.

He won his maiden over 2m 4f & if you watch his performance against First Lieutenant over 2m on heavy ground he is closing all the way to the line & First Lieutenant is currently 4th favourite for the Neptune.

He was beaten by Bobs Worth over 2m2f on heavy ground but again was staying on and the closest he got was at the end of the race.

His performance in the Royal Bond was class but he was receiving 3lb all round and beat very little. To me he would go very close in the Neptune and would love to have backed him in it. Think he will run well in the Supreme, def finish top 5, but just see him being better for further.

Nulty

Of course Morgans there are plenty of reasons to be with the horse. No one is writing him off. Its just a poor mans way to back the favorite in a race full of babys. Its purely a value call. Any horse at 2/1, no matter, the race, is short enough. Time has told us that backing 2/1 favs in novices is not recommended if you want to pay the bills. He has a favorites chance but I'd lay him just from the point of view that there is too much guess work involved in these races.

I know the form is old but in my post above I outlined why I think Rathlin is a big price for his efforts. Bobby Ewing beat the current Champion Hurdle fav last year and looks good himself. There are 13 other horses to consider and many have not shown their hands yet.

Morgans

I think that's fair enough. I think I misread your earlier post

HigginsJ wrote: »

Think Cue Card is very good but think something will improve past him at the trip.

fr wishy washy

This is normally run at a frantic pace so will probably feel like a 2 ml 4f race,if Cue Card settles will take some beating.

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

Of course Morgans there are plenty of reasons to be with the horse. No one is writing him off. Its just a poor mans way to back the favorite in a race full of babys. Its purely a value call. Any horse at 2/1, no matter, the race, is short enough. Time has told us that backing 2/1 favs in novices is not recommended if you want to pay the bills. He has a favorites chance but I'd lay him just from the point of view that there is too much guess work involved in these races.

I know the form is old but in my post above I outlined why I think Rathlin is a big price for his efforts. Bobby Ewing beat the current Champion Hurdle fav last year and looks good himself. There are 13 other horses to consider and many have not shown their hands yet.

See this is the thing, and its why I posted here rather than the Bismarck thread. I think people are dismissing him very very quickly. Grade 1 novice races, especially hurdles, are about as good a betting medium in which to go into betting the favourite blind, and I dont think that any horse at 2/1 is short enough. Give me a shout if you see 2/1 about Big Bucks! And it is purely a value call.

The fact is though that that wasnt Menorah's real form vs Bobby Ewing (a horse I had hopes for myself after he won at Uttoxeter last year) and you can all be fooling around looking for alternatives and guessing that maybe if you look at Rathlin's form in teh very best possible way he has a chance. And its not the most outlandish shout, but very very very few animals get to the rating that Cue Card already has.

Cue Card can get beaten, no doubt about it, but if he runs to teh form that he has already shown on teh course, it will take a very very good horse to beat him. There may be a very very good horse in the field, one better than Cue Card, but its pretty much a guess as to who it is. Sometimes the most obvious answer is the correct one.

UrbanSea

I can't agree about a horse being 2/1 being short enough for any race. Big handicap yes,not group or graded races.
Cue Card deserves to be that price,but one thing about novice races is that there are always improvers,but will need to be good to beat him.

mailburner

Morgans wrote: »

I cant believe the negativity around Cue Card on here. I think there is a big of a hangover from Dunguib last year about it. Impressive bumper winner goes hurdling and starts favourite for the Supreme and gets beaten. They are two entirely different situations.

There will be very very few of this field that would get as close to Menorah as he did. The form he has already shown would be good enough to win virtually all Supremes. I think 2/1 is a big price. Definitely deserves to be that price.

I understand the idea of looking to get the favourite beaten. The Henderson horses look good - especially Spirit Son - but have lots to prove. Sprinter Sacre looks a chaser to me, but is clearly smart. But even at the prices, you are pretty much guessing that they are going to improve past Cue Card. Of course some lads who in one race will dismiss a horse for the lack of festival/course experience will search for an alternative to Cue Card, when he has that.

Cue Card has proven that he can hurdle on decent ground, unlike last years favourite, who went into the race shorter in price when he hadnt even the highest rating in the field. If Cue Card runs his race (not sure there is any reason to suspect he wont, and why any other horse will) it will take a very very smart performance to beat him.

As an outsider Megans Star, is one that might worth a check on the exchanges. But I think you might be playing for places.

you probably can't compare the two but as far as i can
remember dunguib was very near favourite for the champ
last year with a run before they decided to go for the
easier option and had also won two grade one hurdles
here albeit maybe not beating much.

i like cue cards last run as i also fancy menorah for the ch
but before that he won a very poor grade two
I wouldnt be lumping on him myself based on that unless
i got 3/1 or better and the fact paddy are refunding
is another reason id be happy to back something else.


it's hard to go what's going to beat him as we haven't seen
enough of the henderson horses to know how good they are.
i wouldnt be a bit surprised if something won at a much bigger price.

could see cue card coming there on the bridle two out but
after that let's see how good he really is and how much
the horse will find.
id like to see more before id go steaming in at what will surely
be less than 2/1

Nulty

Your fairly right as usual Morgans but we're talking Cheltenham and talking Novices. Not Big Bucks. Obviously my point has many holes in it...2/1 about a champion hurdler against a selling plater in a two horse race is value but I mean in the context of Cheltenham.

I'd rather be a layer than a backer at 2/1.

I've said he looks a bridal horse (limited evidence of course) but if something gets him off it there no knowing what he'll do. In that respect he dooes look like he needs further and could be tapped for toe.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

I can't agree about a horse being 2/1 being short enough for any race. Big handicap yes,not group or graded races.
Cue Card deserves to be that price,but one thing about novice races is that there are always improvers,but will need to be good to beat him.

Cheltenham Thread = talking about Cheltenham Festival

mdwexford

mailburner wrote: »

you probably can't compare the two but as far as i can
remember dunguib was very near favourite for the champ
last year with a run before they decided to go for the
easier option and had also won two grade one hurdles
here albeit maybe not beating much.

i like cue cards last run as i also fancy menorah for the ch
but before that he won a very poor grade two
I wouldnt be lumping on him myself based on that unless
i got 3/1 or better and the fact paddy are refunding
is another reason id be happy to back something else.


it's hard to go what's going to beat him as we haven't seen
enough of the henderson horses to know how good they are.
i wouldnt be a bit surprised if something won at a much bigger price.

could see cue card coming there on the bridle two out but
after that let's see how good he really is and how much
the horse will find.
id like to see more before id go steaming in at what will surely
be less than 2/1

Lol at letting the Paddy Power money back special influence your decision.

mailburner

mdwexford wrote: »

Lol at letting the Paddy Power money back special influence your decision.

said before id be laying cue card..that means i think he's worth taking on.
the pp refunding if he wins is a bonus if im proven wrong and actually
decide to back something which i may not do given ill progably be a layer.
i dont fancy the horse myself at that price.

like dunguib last year im thinking they'll be well ahead after the first race.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

hope punters get rightly stuck into cue card as i'd be over
the moon if i could lay him at around 6/4

betfair dont refund if im wrong either :pac:

Morgans

I can see the PP offer influencing people who do want to steam in at 2/1 and then lay off on Spirit Son or whoever you fancy against him, but otherwise, Im not sure.

I think he stayed on well in the Bula, just not as quick as Menorah. I think the bridle horse is a jibe from people who are looking for a reason to oppose him. Think if he was a complete bridle horse he would have buckled in the Bula but he kept on at the one pace, in fact, he looked green and was clearly responding to pressure when asked up the hill. But he was not losing ground on Silviniaco Conti (wasnt gaining a lot either) but was pulling clear of Clerks Choice.

I think he has been screaming out for the strongly run race that he will surely get tomorrow. The fact that he can travel as well as he does, and jumps as cleanly as he does, means that whoever beats him will have to be very very good. It will be one of the greatest supremes ever if he repeats the Bula form and is beaten.

HigginsJ

Right now that run in the Bula is not excatly the greatest form available. He beat Silviniaco Conti 1/2 lenght getting 4lb.

Take Menorah out of the race and it is simply a novice trial which he won by half a length. He is the most likely winner of the race but you dont have to look too far for holes in his hurdling form and at 2/1 or less you'd be mad not to at least seriously consider looking elsewher.

Morgans

HigginsJ wrote: »

Right now that run in the Bula is not excatly the greatest form available. He beat Silviniaco Conti 1/2 lenght getting 4lb.

What is the greatest form available?

If you ignore Champion hurdle favourite Menorah and if you ignore

This form
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=514957&r_date=2010-10-16&popup=yes

and this form
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=517072&r_date=2010-11-20&popup=yes

and this form
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=515321&r_date=2010-10-23&popup=yes

You may have a point. I personally can see why the various handicappers view things very differently.

mailburner

it's just been announced on atr that lads and hills are just going 3/1
on cue card
very interesting as to how long that will last

didnt say if it was online or shops though
i see the prices havent changed online

ghosttown

Looks like the bookies laying him, money coming for Magen's Star.......

I just can't back fav in the first, although Medermit is my fav of the day for tomorrow, I'll go Gibb River in the first. (EW)
Note also that Recession Proof will have to find a new jockey, Costello stood down.

HigginsJ

Morgans wrote: »

What is the greatest form available?

If you ignore Champion hurdle favourite Menorah and if you ignore

This form
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=514957&r_date=2010-10-16&popup=yes

and this form
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=517072&r_date=2010-11-20&popup=yes

and this form
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=515321&r_date=2010-10-23&popup=yes

You may have a point. I personally can see why the various handicappers view things very differently.

Fair point.

Obviously you chose to ignore

http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=301256&meetingid=&date=2010-11-20&ref=form&refsite=

and

http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=312964&meetingid=&date=2011-02-19&ref=form&refsite=

Everyone can pick and choose form to suit an argument. Personally i think there are enough questions about him to look elsewhere.

Can someone tell me why Silvinaco Conti is not going to Cheltenham

Morgans

HigginsJ wrote: »

Fair point.

Obviously you chose to ignore

http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=301256&meetingid=&date=2010-11-20&ref=form&refsite=

and

http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=312964&meetingid=&date=2011-02-19&ref=form&refsite=

Everyone can pick and choose form to suit an argument. Personally i think there are enough questions about him to look elsewhere.

Can someone tell me why Silvinaco Conti is not going to Cheltenham

Its about evaluation of form. If you think Clerks Choice and Silvinaco Conti ran to their form that day that is fair enough. But of course, if you want to do that, and be even more silly, you can say that Overturn ran to form in the same Wincanton race, and Silvinaco Conti is 20l better than Binocular.

This is where the handicappers are paid to do their job, not to read form, any fool can do that, but to evaluate the form, which horse ran to their merits on that day and were not the victim of circumstances.

Im not cherry picking form. Im showing you why the prevaling view is that Bula IS the best form on show. If you dont agree, fine. But use horses like the proximity of Cristal Bonus and Astrocad to the winner as a reason to hold down the Bula form, not a silly reading of picking out the races where the horses clearly didnt run to their best as evidence.

You havent answered which form is better than the Bula.

mailburner

Morgans wrote: »

Its about evaluation of form. If you think Clerks Choice and Silvinaco Conti ran to their form that day that is fair enough. But of course, if you want to do that, and be even more silly, you can say that Overturn ran to form in the same Wincanton race, and Silvinaco Conti is 20l better than Binocular.

This is where the handicappers are paid to do their job, not to read form, any fool can do that, but to evaluate the form, which horse ran to their merits on that day and were not the victim of circumstances.

Im not cherry picking form. Im showing you why the prevaling view is that Bula IS the best form on show. If you dont agree, fine. But use horses like the proximity of Cristal Bonus and Astrocad to the winner as a reason to hold down the Bula form, not a silly reading of picking out the races where the horses clearly didnt run to their best as evidence.

You havent answered which form is better than the Bula.

can't believe clerks choice ran to form for one anyway
the way it won before that suggested it was above average
and i lost my hole on it next time at a short price

Morgans

I dont think he (clerks choice) is quite good enough to get involved tomorrow but he will be the one who will be most suited to rock hard ground. There are plenty who will not appreciate it if its genuinely good as reported.

And yes, I do choose to ignore that form. Either Barizan improved a stone and a half for that race, and regressed a stone and a half for each race since, or Clerks Choice didnt run to form. I choose the latter.

mailburner

Morgans wrote: »

I dont think he (clerks choice) is quite good enough to get involved tomorrow but he will be the one who will be most suited to rock hard ground. There are plenty who will not appreciate it if its genuinely good as reported.

totally missed that one
didnt even realise it was running tomoro
interesting...

HigginsJ

Fair Enough & it is simply my opinion (which is fairly crap at the moment!!)

I know evaluating & reading form are different and thats where we gain our opinions from evalutating all available form.

The reason i felt the Bula is not the strongest form is that it was essentially a novice hurlde with Menorah.

The strongest novice form on offer is the Deloitte run here and the strongest championship form is probably the Fighting Fifth.

mdwexford

HigginsJ wrote: »

The strongest novice form on offer is the Deloitte run here and the strongest championship form is probably the Fighting Fifth.

Mad the way people view races so differently.

I think both of those races are so poor.

Oscars Well may be ok-ish, dont think hes great though.

Morgans

HigginsJ wrote: »

Fair Enough & it is simply my opinion (which is fairly crap at the moment!!)

I know evaluating & reading form are different and thats where we gain our opinions from evalutating all available form.

The reason i felt the Bula is not the strongest form is that it was essentially a novice hurlde with Menorah.

The strongest novice form on offer is the Deloitte run here and the strongest championship form is probably the Fighting Fifth.

Can you relate the Deloitte or Fighting Fifth to the Supreme tomorrow?

HigginsJ

Whats your opinion on the strongest novice and championship form this year? Bula for one i presume!!

Fighting fifth has nothing to do with the Supreme as said its best Championship form.

We will see what Hidden Universe can do to uphold the Deloitte form. Mullins seems really worried about the ground for Zaidpour on ATR article.

Shane732

One thing for sure is that the 3/1 didn't last for long with Hills or Ladbrokes.

It's very hard to say the Deloitte is the best form for the Supreme.

Personally I'd stay on the right side of Cue Card.

So far I've kept it small with Cue Card but I'm fighting with myself the whole time.

I got stung on Dunguib last year and I'm finding it hard to muster up the balls to go in heavy in the opening race this year.

Long Term Louth

Ladbrokes will be going 3-1 Cue Card in the morning...

mailburner

Long Term Louth wrote: »

Ladbrokes will be going 3-1 Cue Card in the morning...

if that isn't the kiss of death then i don't know what is.
the magic sign rarely get it wrong
interesting to see how long it lasts

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Cheltenham Thread = talking about Cheltenham Festival

You said any race. This is a thread on the Supreme Novice,not the festival.

Morgans

HigginsJ wrote: »

Whats your opinion on the strongest novice and championship form this year? Bula for one i presume!!

Fighting fifth has nothing to do with the Supreme as said its best Championship form.

We will see what Hidden Universe can do to uphold the Deloitte form. Mullins seems really worried about the ground for Zaidpour on ATR article.

Im sorry, but in a discussion about Cue Card and the Supreme, you said the Bula isnt the greatest form. It may not be the greatest in terms of the Champion Hurdle but its still the greatest form for the Supreme (in my opinion).

You think Hidden Universe and Zaidpour have done more on the track would have finished ahead of Cue Card in the Bula? Is this correct?

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

I can see the PP offer influencing people who do want to steam in at 2/1 and then lay off on Spirit Son or whoever you fancy against him, but otherwise, Im not sure.

I think he stayed on well in the Bula, just not as quick as Menorah. I think the bridle horse is a jibe from people who are looking for a reason to oppose him. Think if he was a complete bridle horse he would have buckled in the Bula but he kept on at the one pace, in fact, he looked green and was clearly responding to pressure when asked up the hill. But he was not losing ground on Silviniaco Conti (wasnt gaining a lot either) but was pulling clear of Clerks Choice.

I think he has been screaming out for the strongly run race that he will surely get tomorrow. The fact that he can travel as well as he does, and jumps as cleanly as he does, means that whoever beats him will have to be very very good. It will be one of the greatest supremes ever if he repeats the Bula form and is beaten.

I think our understanding of a 'bridal horse' are different. As I understood it, the horse doesn't improve for pressure but keeps on at one pace. Thats my understanding. Are you saying that a 'bridal horse' packs it in when asked of an effort? If so, you know what I mean now and I know what you mean.

I mean he didn't quicken after seemingly tanking along in the Bula. Not that he 'spat the dummy out'. His running style is deceptive in that he looks like he could quicken but really hes going at full pelt as it is.

Know what I mean?

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

You said any race. This is a thread on the Supreme Novice,not the festival.

Whatever, you know what I mean now.

Nulty

mailburner wrote: »

can't believe clerks choice ran to form for one anyway
the way it won before that suggested it was above average
and i lost my hole on it next time at a short price

If the ground is officially good tomorrow I'll have a swipe at him. I was really interested in the 80s available a couple of weeks ago but thought it was guaran teed to be GS at best with the watering. 40s is attractive if theres no soft in the description.

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

I think our understanding of a 'bridal horse' are different. As I understood it, the horse doesn't improve for pressure but keeps on at one pace. Thats my understanding. Are you saying that a 'bridal horse' packs it in when asked of an effort? If so, you know what I mean now and I know what you mean.

I mean he didn't quicken after seemingly tanking along in the Bula. Not that he 'spat the dummy out'. His running style is deceptive in that he looks like he could quicken but really hes going at full pelt as it is.

Know what I mean?

Fair enough, but very few horses accelerate at the end their races, especially off a strong pace. Bridle horses as far as anyone I've ever known them are those who flatter and when the button is pressed, they find nothing and actually curl up underneath the jockey when pressure is applied. Cue Card might not have an electric turn of foot - the type that Hurricane Fly might have - but he has displayed a huge cruising speed. The stronger the pace the better. He wont be suited to a slow pace tomorrow. In fact, he might always be vulnerable when up against the best horses in small fields with no pace.

Shane732

Morgans wrote: »

Fair enough, but very few horses accelerate at the end their races, especially off a strong pace. Bridle horses as far as anyone I've ever known them are those who flatter and when the button is pressed, they find nothing and actually curl up underneath the jockey when pressure is applied. Cue Card might not have an electric turn of foot - the type that Hurricane Fly might have - but he has displayed a huge cruising speed. The stronger the pace the better. He wont be suited to a slow pace tomorrow. In fact, he might always be vulnerable when up against the best horses in small fields with no pace.

Harchibald is what you would call a true bridal horse.

Do you think the race will be a slow pace tomorrow? I think Cue Card will get the race he wants and the gallop will be strong.

Based on ratings cue Card could win this without coming off the bridal. Naturally ratings don't tell the full story.

If anything is going to beat Cue Card tomorrow then they're going to have to show a lot of improvement.

I just can't agree with whoever said the Deloitte is the best form for the race. I think Cue Card has over a stone in hand over the Deloitte form.

Morgans

Yeah. There are horses that relish a battle. (Its impossible to know if Cue Card is one of them)

There are others who are one paced - most horses I would think. Can go the one pace for as long as they can. Horses that when pressured will try but dont quicken, but dont fold. I think at this stage, those who want to knock Cue Card can call him one paced. The difference between Cue Card and the hundreds of other one paced horses is that the pace Cue Card can go is very very high. A strong pace means that those going Cue Card's pace wont be able to last as long as him.

Bridle horses are those who dont like it when it gets tough. Horses who often travel well but dont like being asked a question. These often find little up the Cheltenham hill (something Cue Card has done three times). I dont think Cue Card has shown this to date, but its always possible that he will do it tomorrow. There is as much chance of the opposition being bridle horses. Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre havent been asked a question yet. Its guesswork how they would react.

I think there are the numbers tomorrow and with several front runners, i dont think there will be any lack of pace.

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

Fair enough, but very few horses accelerate at the end their races, especially off a strong pace. Bridle horses as far as anyone I've ever known them are those who flatter and when the button is pressed, they find nothing and actually curl up underneath the jockey when pressure is applied. Cue Card might not have an electric turn of foot - the type that Hurricane Fly might have - but he has displayed a huge cruising speed. The stronger the pace the better. He wont be suited to a slow pace tomorrow. In fact, he might always be vulnerable when up against the best horses in small fields with no pace.

Agreed.

mailburner

went with spirits son at 11/2 lads and magens star ew 18s bet365
waiting for cue card to hopefully shorten a bit more before laying it

UrbanSea

Cue Card getting beat into 7/4

TheMilkyPirate

cue card gettin hammered

mailburner

keep hammering please

still 3.05 on exchanges

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

keep hammering please

still 3.05 on exchanges

3.05 it is
im a natural at picking losers at cheltenham
hope it doesnt change now

UrbanSea

Not even placed :O

Nulty

Thats horse racing!