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Here are my predictions for the Mayo constituancy

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  • 14-02-2011 4:03am
    #1
    mayotom
    Registered Users Posts: 742 ✭✭✭


    Here are my predictions for first preference Votes in Mayo

    Electorate 100,000 Turnout 75% Quota 12,500


    Enda Kenny (FG) 24,000
    Michelle Mulhern(FG) 9,500
    Micheal Ring (FG) 8,500
    Dara Calleary(FF) 5,000
    John O'Mahony(FG) 5,000
    Thresa Ruane(SF) 5,000
    Rose Conway-Walsh(SF)4,500
    Michael Kilcoyne (Ind) 4,500
    Jerry Cowley(Lab) 3,500
    Lisa Chambers (FF) 2,000
    Martin Daly(Ind) 1,000
    Loretta Clarke (Ind) 750
    Dermot McDonnell (Ind) 500
    John Carey(Green) 250

    With Result

    Kenny - Quota
    Mulhern - Quota
    Ring - Quota
    Ruane - Elected
    O'Mahony Elected

    with all others Eliminated, with Calleary been last to go, Kilcoyne before him Conway-walsh before that and Cowley before her
    Tagged:


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    #2
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Can't agree with you analysis there OP

    Even though the FF vote will be through the floor I still cannot see the core being so reduced that Calleary cannot even scrape on.

    Also I cannot see how SF will get a seat running two candidates.
    They never had great support in Mayo and even though SF are a popular party of protest coming to this election, come polling day people will have seen through their rhetoric and will not vote for them, heck that already happening with the latest Red C poll.

    here is my take on it, in no particular order

    1. Kenny
    2. Ring
    3. O' Mahoney
    4. Calleary
    5. Kilcoyne or Cowley or at a stretch Mulhern


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