Second Chance of Possible Northern Lights

Flibbles

Yeah the KP level is plummeting

homer simpson

Was out myself and seen sweet FA

firemansam4

Went out again between 9.00 and 11.00 pm last night and also seen sweet f all!
Also clouds cleared away for a short while.

but looking at a kp index chart of yesterday which shows activity levels it plumeted at that exact time i went out :mad:

echo beach

Fully Established wrote: »

What are the chances this evening to see the northern lights from either the west or north of Dublin ?

I think the amount of artificial light around Dublin means you are unlikely to see anything even if they were visible so far south.

madalig12

N.lights were back last night according to rte news.

donegal_road

Northern Lights seen from Kerry two nights ago according to this

muckish

firemansam4 wrote: »

Went out again between 9.00 and 11.00 pm last night and also seen sweet f all!
Also clouds cleared away for a short while.

but looking at a kp index chart of yesterday which shows activity levels it plumeted at that exact time i went out :mad:

It's not all about the KP index. Don't get hung up on the value of the KP. If it's high then there's a good possibility of an aurora yes, but the recent aurorae have been visible at KP3-4. The key is the IMF value. If it's negative then it allows the solar wind to stream innto the atmosphere and energise the electrons etc. So if there's a strongly negative IMF and a high solar wind speed then the chance are quite high for an aurora visible over Donegal. The indicators that say "% chance of aurora at mid latitudes" or flash amber/red etc don't take account of these variables.

muckish

Timelapse from 23rd @ Horn Head

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKlEtbHXGtA

Timelapse from 24th @ Fanad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwlzHoZkztQ

firemansam4

muckish wrote: »

It's not all about the KP index. Don't get hung up on the value of the KP. If it's high then there's a good possibility of an aurora yes, but the recent aurorae have been visible at KP3-4. The key is the IMF value. If it's negative then it allows the solar wind to stream innto the atmosphere and energise the electrons etc. So if there's a strongly negative IMF and a high solar wind speed then the chance are quite high for an aurora visible over Donegal. The indicators that say "% chance of aurora at mid latitudes" or flash amber/red etc don't take account of these variables.

Is there a good site that can predict what these IMF values are going to be?

retalivity

can anyone link a distant donegalman to some high-res photos from the past few nights?

Need a new background to make me homesick

muffler

retalivity wrote: »

Need a new background to make me homesick

This should do the trick so

muckish

firemansam4 wrote: »

Is there a good site that can predict what these IMF values are going to be?

They don't predict the IMF but give the current value. You can see the trend on graphs. spaceweatherlive.com is particularily good.

homer simpson

Should be another chance to see them over the next few night's, weather permitting

NORTHERN LIGHTS UPDATE INCOMING CME 8/5/12

Sunspot AR1471 erupted on May 7th, producing an M1-class solar flare and an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather lab, the cloud will reach Earth on May 9th at 13:40 UT (+/- 7 hours)

UT is universal time, the same is GMT isn't it?

allquestions

UT = GMT but don't forget we're in summer time now, so we're GMT+1

homer simpson

Chances are very good of catching a glimpse tonight it seem's.

homer simpson

Praying for some cloud to cover the moon side of the sky later on, looking brilliant for viewing otherwise....

TPD

Moon isn't very big tonight anyway is it? Heading north once it gets dark, see what can be seen from Malin or so

madalig12

That map/chart is the same as the one above it, is it not?

teddansonswig

me thinks the web page is updated and they are using the same link

mk2

Did i hear the lights are active again?