Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

feargale

Dan man wrote: »

K_1 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0518/1224316281215.html

Apparently Jenny Egan is still in with a slim chance of qualification on a 'countback system'.[/QUOTE
There was no follow-up to this. Can we take it that Jenny Egan ain't going to London?

Dodge

BMX World Champs start on Friday. Kelvin Batey will be looking to qualify for Ireland. Kelvin was controversially not selected for GB for Beijing and switched allegiances in 2010

A top 20 place should see him safe.

feargale

Dodge wrote: »

BMX World Champs start on Friday. Kelvin Batey will be looking to qualify for Ireland.

A top 20 place should see him safe.

How good is Kelvin Batey. What chance?

Dan man

feargale wrote: »

Dan man wrote: »

K_1 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0518/1224316281215.html

Apparently Jenny Egan is still in with a slim chance of qualification on a 'countback system'.[/QUOTE
There was no follow-up to this. Can we take it that Jenny Egan ain't going to London?

We won't know until 21st June.

Dan man

Sanita Puspure goes for Olympic qualification tomorrow in the women's single sculls final in Lucerne. She needs a top 3 finish (not sure if top 4 is enough) to secure qualification. Her race starts at 4:10pm tomorrow afternoon. Best of luck to Sanita.
If we don't have any rowing representatives this summer in London it will be the first time since Los Angeles 1984 Olympics that this has happened.

Dodge

feargale wrote: »

How good is Kelvin Batey. What chance?

I'm not an expert but he was 8th in a high quality British series meeting recently where many international riders were using it as prep.

Qulification is based on team and individual rankings. So the top 5 nations can nominate 3 riders, nations 6-8 nominate 2 riders. Nations 9-11 nominate 1. Thats based on UCI rankings

After that the 6 best ranking nationas at the world championships can nominate one. If GB qualify a rider through these routes, and extra quota place is there. In total there are 32 riders who'll qualify (30 (from 17 nations) + host + tripartite)

The worlds also dominate the rankings, so basically this is the qualifier.

Such is the chaos of BMX riding that 25 countries will feel like they can get a rider qualifed and Kelvin has a chance.

Dodge

In today's swimming, Sycerika was a DNS in 200 IM, Mel finished 22nd in 100m backstroke. I think both girls were entitled to celebrate a bit yesterday

In the non olympic 50m backstroke, karl burdis qualified for semis in 15th place

The Womens single Sculls final is at 4.15pm (Irish time) sanita goes in lane 6. Top 3 qualify

Pherekydes

Final_Olympic_Qualification_Regatta_2012,_Lucerne
start list Final A  (W1x)  start time:  23.05.2012 17:15:00   boat prog.: Olympic Qualification Places 1-4
Lane 	Boat 	Country
1 	EST 	Estonia
2 	USA 	United States
3 	DEN 	Denmark
4 	AUS 	Australia
5 	SRB 	Serbia
6 	IRL 	Ireland

According to the website it's 4. Her race is off at 16:15 our time.

Link to results. Event #66

Dodge

Hope so. I initially thought four but reading the World Rowing preview they said 3 http://www.worldrowing.com/news/final-opportunity-for-spots-in-the-london-olympics

The women’s single sculls has attracted entries from 17 countries and three qualification spots are available

Paul McDermott of the ISC also tweeted it was 3 but he's not in Lucerne.

Dan man

Dodge wrote: »

Hope so. I initially thought four but reading the World Rowing preview they said 3 http://www.worldrowing.com/news/final-opportunity-for-spots-in-the-london-olympics



Paul McDermott of the ISC also tweeted it was 3 but he's not in Lucerne.

Yes there has been conflicting news regarding the number...several times I've read that it's 4 but also read a couple of times that it's just the 3. Heck I even read 1 article saying it was only 2 but I think we can dismiss that report.

Pherekydes

According to the official document PDF file here, it's definitely four. It was updated from 3 on the 18th of May, hence the confusion.

Dodge

Looking at times and placings from heats and semis, it's going to be a very tough task for Sanita.

She was 6th fastest in heats, 5th fastest in semis.

Heats won by Denmark, Australia and Serbia. They're also 3 fastest in semis (Denmark and Australia won).

Serbia has finished 8 and 4 seconds ahead of Sanita in both races so far.

So barring mistakes, it looks like those 3 have the top 3 spots sown up.

Sanita would then be in a race with Estonia and USA for that 4th spot. Unfortunately they're in Lanes 1 and 2 and will be racing each other.

Fingers crossed for her

Dan man

Pherekydes wrote: »

According to the official document PDF file here, it's definitely four. It was updated from 3 on the 18th of May, hence the confusion.

Good man, that's positive that there's 4 quota places up for grabs but as Dodge says it will be very tough for Sanita. She's got a chance all the same so we might be celebrating another qualifier this afternoon. Best of luck to her.

Dodge

SANITA GETS 4TH!!!

Dan man

Excellent performance by Sanita Puspure to claim an Olympic quota place. Ireland now has 53 on the team.

Dodge

She was 4th at half way stage, then 5th with 500 to go.

Ended up getting 4th with 4 seconds to spare with the Serbian girl missing out.

Outstanding stuff from a girl who couldn't compete internationally for the past few years

Dan man

And she finished well ahead of the Serbian girl who was well ahead of her in the qualfication rounds, really good race there by Sanita, she pulled it out of the bag on the day.

Dan man

The team is almost certainly going to exceed 60 now, more likely to be upwards of 65 or more!

Dodge

Well 53 so far.

Likely qualifiers
Gavin Noble (Triathlon)
natalya Coyle (Mod Pent)
David Gillick (athletics)
Jason Smyth (Athletics)

If we get a swimming and/or athletics relay team we're going to surpass 60 easily.

Others that are still in with chance are Arthur Lanigan-O'Keeffe in the Modern pentathlon, Jessie Barr and Ciara Mageen in Athletics (and others too but thse are very close). We all hope Joe Ward gets the invite at light heavy in the boxing and Caroline Ryan is still hoping to get a wildcard into the women's cycling too

EDIT; thats not including the athletes we've talked about in the last couple of days
---

You might have the stats to hand dan, but this must be by far our biggest women's team.

I make it 21 women so far (with the Equestrain riders unknown)

james1992

How did Mcmahon do in the European Final ?

Dodge

james1992 wrote: »

How did Mcmahon do in the European Final ?

Next race up

Dodge

McMahon fifth in European final. Didn't lower her own record

She's by far the youngest of the finalists

FitzjamesHorse

Its great news and I think seeing the diversity in the Irish team is a great thing in itself.
I know that Ciara Mageean had a close family bereavement recently and it may affect her.
But it would be a great thing for the small town of Portaferry on the Ards Peninsula in County Down if she became the second young woman from the town to make the team.

Dodge

Might get time to go through the stats later but apart from Athens, I think this might be our biggest ever haul of individuals. No rowing 4s, relay teams, equestrian teams*. In the past we've had cycling time trial teams too. Only the 3 sailing pairs, otherwise all individuals


*in 3 day eventing, if you qualify 3 or more individuals they can also enter as a team, but they can't enter any more riders/horses to amke up the usual 5 rider team

feargale

[Quote=Dodge;........ apart from Athens, ..... our biggest ever haul of individuals. ........No teams
Pity about men's hockey. A member rightly pointed out that they wouldn't have medalled anyway, but it would have been good for our self-esteem to qualify a team of ball-players in a court or field game. It's happened only three times: Soccer in 1924 and 1948 and Basketball in 1948. Maybe next time!
In any event, from here out Joe Ward is the most crucial. Let's keep fingers crossed!

Dan man

Dodge wrote: »

Well 53 so far.

Likely qualifiers
Gavin Noble (Triathlon)
natalya Coyle (Mod Pent)
David Gillick (athletics)
Jason Smyth (Athletics)

If we get a swimming and/or athletics relay team we're going to surpass 60 easily.

Others that are still in with chance are Arthur Lanigan-O'Keeffe in the Modern pentathlon, Jessie Barr and Ciara Mageen in Athletics (and others too but thse are very close). We all hope Joe Ward gets the invite at light heavy in the boxing and Caroline Ryan is still hoping to get a wildcard into the women's cycling too

EDIT; thats not including the athletes we've talked about in the last couple of days
---

You might have the stats to hand dan, but this must be by far our biggest women's team.

I make it 21 women so far (with the Equestrain riders unknown)

We've got 20 women on the team so far, the record was set in Sydney 2000 where we had 24 in the squad. That's definitely going to be surpassed when you add the relay team that looks good (women's 4x400m).

We have plenty of other chances that are waiting on quota places after re-distribution of unused places. Scott Evans in badminton is in with a good chance and we are almost certainly going to increase our equestrian tally by 3 (2 more eventers and Anna Merveldt in dressage).

Don't forget Natalya Coyle in the modern pentathlon, she is currently inside the qualifying positions with just this weekend's World Cup Final in Chengdu to go.
Chris Bryan in the open water swimming too has a good chance of qualification.

Dan man

Positive:
I have so much good news to update to my lists and tables from the last few days. More Irish athletes are joining the team with each passing day and qualifying times and marks are coming through fast.


Negative:
I have so much stats to update and I refuse to use my iPhone to do so...too frustrating. My laptop obviously is anti-Irish qualifiers...decides to pack up just as things are getting interesting! :rolleyes:

FitzjamesHorse

feargale wrote: »

[Quote=Dodge;........ apart from Athens, ..... our biggest ever haul of individuals. ........No teams
Pity about men's hockey. A member rightly pointed out that they wouldn't have medalled anyway, but it would have been good for our self-esteem to qualify a team of ball-players in a court or field game. It's happened only three times: Soccer in 1924 and 1948 and Basketball in 1948. Maybe next time!
In any event, from here out Joe Ward is the most crucial. Let's keep fingers crossed!

As regards "ball players". Clearly its not played on a pitch or court but wasnt there an Irish Water Polo team in an Olympics in the 1920s?

Dan man

FitzjamesHorse wrote: »

feargale wrote: »

As regards "ball players". Clearly its not played on a pitch or court but wasnt there an Irish Water Polo team in an Olympics in the 1920s?

Correct, a men's water polo team in both 1924 and 1928 in fact.

Dodge

Important morning for the swimmers. Womens 4x200m heats scheduled for 9.57. Ireland team is Sycerika, Melanie, Nuala Murphy and Bethany carson

12 teams have already qualified;
United States
Australia
China
France
Hungary
Great Britain
Canada
New Zealand
Japan
Russia
Germany
Sweden

So for them to qualify they have to have one of the next 4 best times. They'll get 2 great opportunities now.

Dodge

Oh and Shani Stallard and Fiona Doyle go in the 200m breast stroke

Dodge

Shani and Fiona both qualified for the semi finals, but both were some way off the Qualifying time. Another chance tonight

Pherekydes

And bad news in the relay with Ireland dropping another spot in the rankings due to Slovenia's good swim.

By my reckoning, Ireland needs to swim faster than 8:06 and finish ahead of Slovenia, Ukraine and Austria. And all that without Gráinne Murphy.

Dodge

Yeah, 5th in the heats (of the non qualified nations).

A full 5 seconds behind Austria

The only saving grace is that maybe they watched the first heat and knew they had a huge cushion to make final

Dodge

The splits
McMahon - 2:02.21
Nocher - 2:01.38
Murphy - 2:06.63
Carson - 2:03.08

Dodge

Dodge wrote: »

The splits
McMahon - 2:02.21
Nocher - 2:01.38
Murphy - 2:06.63
Carson - 2:03.08

As a comprison these are all listed with the following 'Qualifying times' for the 200m Free individual

McMahon -2:00.61
Nocher - 2:00.49
Murphy - 2:03.64
Carson - 2:02.44

So we'll need PBs from pretty much all of them to get that 2:06 time

Dan man

They need to swim 8:06.67mins and finish ahead of Austria at the very least to have a chance of qualification. Without Grainne, I don't see them getting the National Record but you never know. At least they still have a chance.

Pherekydes

Surely they'll have to finish ahead of Ukraine and Slovenia too? Both are ahead of Ireland in the current rankings.

Dan man

Pherekydes wrote: »

Surely they'll have to finish ahead of Ukraine and Slovenia too? Both are ahead of Ireland in the current rankings.

Ideally they do, but as my post suggests, the very least they need to do is beat Austria and finish inside 8:06.67mins. At the moment Austria are 4th in the rankings of unqualified teams. Taking into times from last season that is the minimum time they need, anything less and they won't be in top 4 of unqualified nations. But if they dip inside that time they still need no more than 3 unqualified teams to finish ahead of them. Even that might not be enough though.

Dodge

any links to the rankings lads?

Dan man

Compare times at world championships last year and this years times. I think that's fairly accurate way of doing it.

Dodge

yeah, was just wondering if there were any other international meets that I didn't see.

Thanks

Pherekydes

4X200 METRES FREESTYLE RELAY FEMALE LC
Rank Time Team Meet Name Meet City Meet Country Date
1 7:46.14 United States 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
2 7:47.42 Australia 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
3 7:47.66 China 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
4 7:52.05 Canada 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
5 7:52.12 Hungary 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
6 7:52.22 France 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
7 7:53.51 Great Britain 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
8 7:56.55 New Zealand 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
9 7:57.82 Japan 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
10 7:58.74 Germany 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
11 7:59.69 Russia 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
12 8:00.69 Spain Open Dutch Championships Eindhoven NED 02/12/2011
13 8:02.30 Sweden 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
14 8:02.69 Italy 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
15 8:03.89 Netherlands Open Dutch Championships Eindhoven NED 02/12/2011
16 8:06.42 Ukraine 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
17 8:06.67 Austria 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
18 8:07.66 Ireland 2011 FINA World Championships Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
19 8:11.60 Brazil South American Swimming
Championships 2012
Belem BRA 12/03/2012

Slovenia's time from this morning is missing, so Ireland must swim faster than 8:06.1 (I think that was Slovenia's time), and finish ahead of Austria, Ukraine and Slovenia, by my calculations.

Dodge

based on best times, here's the 6

Spain - 08:00.7 - 1
Italy - 08:02.7 - 2
Slovenia - 08:06.1 - 3
Ukraine - 08:06.4 - 4
Austria - 08:06.7 - 5
Ireland - 08:07.7 - 6
--

So as Pheredykes said we'd need to beat Austria and the Ukraine and swim lower than 08:06.41

The girls are in lane 1 tonight with Italy and Spain in lanes 1 and 2.

Dan man

Good work Pherekydes, so they need to swim under 8:06.10mins and finish ahead of Ukraine, Austria and Slovenia to stand any chance of going to London.

Dan man

Dodge wrote: »

based on best times, here's the 6

Spain - 08:00.7 - 1
Italy - 08:02.7 - 2
Slovenia - 08:06.1 - 3
Ukraine - 08:06.4 - 4
Austria - 08:06.7 - 5
Ireland - 08:07.7 - 6
--

So as Pheredykes said we'd need to beat Austria and the Ukraine and swim lower than 08:06.41

The girls are in lane 1 tonight with Italy and Spain in lanes 1 and 2.

You're forgetting the Netherlands are third of those not yet qualified (8:03.89mins). So they need to swim under 8:06.10mins at least.

Dodge

grrrr, I was only counting tonight's teams

Dodge

Ineteresting to see that in the womens 800m free, the gold was won in a time 7 seconds slower than Grainne Murphy swam in 2010 to win bronze.

Dodge

6th in 8:09.xx

Unlikely to qualify now...

Dan man

Dodge wrote: »

6th in 8:09.xx

Unlikely to qualify now...

That's a pity, my understanding of the situation is that this meet was their last chance for qualification.