The Libyan uprising

AlekSmart

Stev_o wrote: »

One thing i find slightly odd just looking at that the whole thing is how fast a protest turned into a civil invasion to capture the country.....

.....Now obviously it would explain how quickly it was crushed and routed by a professional force. But how exactly do you go from "Here lads lets let our voices be heard" to "Hop in this truck with me and take this AK we are going to make a march on the capital".

Yep Stev_o,I`m of a like mind on this.

Setting aside the entire sideshow of Ghadaffi`s likeability or desireability as a leader,I`m having some blonde moments trying to get a handle on the methodology of this "Uprising" and the alacrity of the UN`s response to the situation ?

Manic Moran

Stev_o wrote: »

Manic you'd know better then most about military manoeuvres. Do you find it impressive how quick the rebels went form demonstrating to organising a military force to make a charge for Tripoli?

Now obviously it would explain how quickly it was crushed and routed by a professional force. But how exactly do you go from "Here lads lets let our voices be heard" to "Hop in this truck with me and take this AK we are going to make a march on the capital".

Well, it probably helped that a bunch of them had AKs to begin with. The figure I can find is fifteen privately owned firearms (granted, of various types) for every hundred members of the population. All it would take would be for one arms depot to be opened up by a sympathetic commander, and there you have your RPGs, PKMs and ZPUs. Some of the arming was probably going on before the decision to make an advance, so I'm not surprised it didn't take long at all. Especially since I don't think it was an organised military force to begin with, just a mass of people with guns.

NTM

BlaasForRafa

nacho libre wrote: »

Robert Mugabe and a half dozen other African dictators are bat**** crazy, yet there has been no sense of urgency to step in and stop them slaughtering their own.

So tell us then, which air bases would they use to attack Zimbabwe and which assets would they use? What targets would they take out....every Hi-Lux that might be carrying a few militia with AK47s?*

*note that I would love to see mugabe die in a hail of fuel-air bombs.

Overheal

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

*note that I would love to see mugabe die in a hail of fuel-air bombs.

and then blame the interventionists when those massive explosions kill innocent bystanders.

Fuel-Air bombs, I don't really understand when you could use one. Conventional war perhaps, but when was the last time that happened?

AlekSmart

Manic Moran wrote: »

Well, it probably helped that a bunch of them had AKs to begin with. The figure I can find is fifteen privately owned firearms (granted, of various types) for every hundred members of the population. All it would take would be for one arms depot to be opened up by a sympathetic commander, and there you have your RPGs, PKMs and ZPUs. Some of the arming was probably going on before the decision to make an advance, so I'm not surprised it didn't take long at all. Especially since I don't think it was an organised military force to begin with, just a mass of people with guns.

NTM

Manic,Do we have any indication that that is`nt still the case ?

Virtually all the "newsreel" footage appears to show the standard Arabic ,"let fly into the sky" discharge of weaponry which accompanies large scale undisciplined use of firearms in the region.

Thus far we seem to be a bit short on any details of a cohesive military or political alternative to the good Colonel`s Government ?

ISAW

AlekSmart wrote: »

Yep Stev_o,I`m of a like mind on this.

Setting aside the entire sideshow of Ghadaffi`s likeability or desireability as a leader,I`m having some blonde moments trying to get a handle on the methodology of this "Uprising" and the alacrity of the UN`s response to the situation ?

It is a big country and Ghadaffi is from a small tribe controlling it. In fact they have never had total control over the other end of the country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya#Administrative_divisions_and_cities

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Abdul_Jalil

I briefly worked with a guy years ago whose dad was a "retired" general. He was respected and Ghadaffi would not execute him or lock him up but he was keeping his head down and his mouth shut until such a time as the regime weakened or collapsed. Effectively he was under "house (village /region) arrest".

Gahdaffi isn't Stalin. Even with his dictatorship, Libyans did much better than other African countries so the public will was not as strong to risk one's life for change.

BlaasForRafa

Overheal wrote: »

and then blame the interventionists when those massive explosions kill innocent bystanders.

Fuel-Air bombs, I don't really understand when you could use one. Conventional war perhaps, but when was the last time that happened?

The Russkies used them in Chechnya

Manic Moran

AlekSmart wrote: »

Manic,Do we have any indication that that is`nt still the case ?

As the rebel lines shrank, and the more enthusiastic amateurs got killed off (plus the rebels have had more time to get themselves sorted out) I think it's reasonable to assume that there is at least some element more co-ordination on the rebel side than there was a week or two ago. Of course, it's all relative, I don't think they're to the level of the Libyan loyalist forces which have suprised me somewhat with their competence. I recall watching footage from before the Rus Alnaf fight, the Loyalists had honest to god support trains. Yes, they were all press-ganged civilian vehicles, but they had lines of trucks hauling supplies, and even rows of ambulances standing by waiting to transport wounded from the upcoming fight.

Virtually all the "newsreel" footage appears to show the standard Arabic ,"let fly into the sky" discharge of weaponry which accompanies large scale undisciplined use of firearms in the region.

The tactical incompetence of the amateurs (and even so-called professionals) isn't going to be quite as important as the overall co-ordination of effort. Bearing in mind that the loyalist Infantry are hardly the Ranger Regiment.

Fuel-Air bombs, I don't really understand when you could use one. Conventional war perhaps, but when was the last time that happened?

FAEs/Themobarics have generally taken over the role of flamethrowers. They can be used in cases of dealing with structures or fortifications as their effects are not linear. They are quite common now, you can even get RPG warheads with them.

NTM

Manic Moran

ISAW wrote: »

Hmmm? Not really a Republican principle or policy

Who cares? Even if the motive was because Saddam had said something about Bush's aunt's rose garden, there was a definite end-state in mind.

NTM

Overheal

Manic Moran wrote: »

Who cares? Even if the motive was because Saddam had said something about Bush's aunt's rose garden, there was a definite end-state in mind.

NTM

Nancy, or Josephine?

Dr. Greenthumb

Dr. Greenthumb wrote: »

I asked you previously to provide back up to your claims, is that unreasonable? Please show me earlier where I said actual footage of the atrocities wouldn't be acceptable. Also you never did back up any of your claims and I did say I was open to correction.

I did previously say that second hand information wasn't reliable. You are quick to condemn all the governments statements as lie but seem to believe everything the rebels say. Are they incapable of lying?

Anyway now there appears to be a better flow of information so hopefully it all becomes clear.

Don't know what you're breathing but I do know what you are talking

I only condemn gadaffi's utterances and his spokespeople..the man who thinks ceasefire means increase fire..(calling the Bengazzi rebels alqueda and renegades is priceless..plus of course keeping foreign reporters in Tripoli on a leach not allowing them investigate independently)

My reply was mainly sarcasm in response to your obsequious posts denying Gadaffi is up to anything for lack of video following his tanks despite plenty of eye witness reports on the bbc and elsewhere..
Quite a few posters here have seen through them,a while ago,they're boring now.

AlekSmart

Manic Moran wrote: »

The tactical incompetence of the amateurs (and even so-called professionals) isn't going to be quite as important as the overall co-ordination of effort.

NTM

It`s worth noting,on a wider scale,the somewhat serious questions now being asked in Whitehall about the effects of the Strategic Defence Review,the ramifications of which have a direct bearing on Britain`s ability to play it`s favoured role.

The type of air support now being provided from UK RAF bases might not be possible when the SDR`s full package of Defence Cuts are in place.

There appear to be quite a lot of "collateral issues" surfacing as a result of the Libyan adventure,which may well see Europe end up in a different place than it had planned for 12 months ago.

Jonny7

AlekSmart wrote: »

It`s worth noting,on a wider scale,the somewhat serious questions now being asked in Whitehall about the effects of the Strategic Defence Review,the ramifications of which have a direct bearing on Britain`s ability to play it`s favoured role.

The type of air support now being provided from UK RAF bases might not be possible when the SDR`s full package of Defence Cuts are in place.

There appear to be quite a lot of "collateral issues" surfacing as a result of the Libyan adventure,which may well see Europe end up in a different place than it had planned for 12 months ago.

I am reading alot of these 'skeptical' posts, I don't know if people are wading in at the deep end with their opinions with zero knowledge of any of this, seems that way sometimes

-Journalists are constantly asking to be taken to the hospitals to see the victims of allied airstrikes - and they are constantly being refused. Really think about this, if even six people were accidentally caught up in a bombing they would be paraded to every single foreign journalist in Tripoli.

-The allies are bombing air defences, military installations, etc. If they see a tank advancing on Benghazi, they'll attack it, if they see it next to a house in Benghazi - then nope - they aren't stupid, they know how quickly Gaddafi will jump on any civ casualties as mentioned above.
--They dont want to kill civilians
--They will be in hot **** if they do
--It is relatively easy with allied tech to hit tanks in the desert and anti-aircraft installations with killing innocent human beings

-There were protests, which were violently put down, guys from the army defected, those guys had access to, in one instance, a hind gunship, which they were painting the new flag on - why are people so confused about how the rebels have weaponry?, this is plain simple knowledge from the beginning of the conflict - the rebels, in the East, have had access to all the army equip, arms depots, police headquarters, etc. They have some tanks as well. This has been well documented on most TV news stations since the beginning, with comparisons of Gaddafi's forces v Rebels strength

-If someone starts to slaughter you, and you have access to guns, you fight back, if you don't have access to guns, you run - this isn't a crusty protest in Dublin, its a fight for ****ing survival - anyone who is considered anything to do with the uprising would have been slaughtered, full stop. Or disappeared, put into a cell the size of a telephone box with 5 other people, or tortured to death - go do some reading, its Saddam type stuff.

Euroland

Operation "Steal Libyan Oil":

Euroland

You would be laughing, but the website especially dedicated to the “Libyan revolution of 17 of February” had been registered 1 day before the “revolution” began, on 16/02/2011:


http://www.libyafeb17.com/

http://www.whois.net/whois/libyafeb17.com
Domain Name: LIBYAFEB17.COM
Registrar: WEBFUSION LTD.
Whois Server: whois.123-reg.co.uk
Referral URL: http://www.123-reg.co.uk
Name Server: NS1153.HOSTGATOR.COM
Name Server: NS1154.HOSTGATOR.COM
Status: ok
Updated Date: 16-feb-2011
Creation Date: 16-feb-2011
Expiration Date: 16-feb-2013




Therefore, indicating that “the uprising” was prepared in advance, and abroad.

Euroland

Jonny7 wrote: »

-Journalists are constantly asking to be taken to the hospitals to see the victims of allied airstrikes - and they are constantly being refused.

There were several TV reports on BBC and Euro News showing the dead (and cemetery) after the first night of bombing Tripoli, when 64 civilians were killed and over 150 were wounded.

Euroland

Jonny7 wrote: »

why are people so confused about how the rebels have weaponry?

So called rebels receive weapons via Egypt, this why many of them portray on TV with weapons not used in Libyan army, and in absolutely new condition.

Manic Moran

We've also seen pictures of the spoils of the Toyota Wars, such as 106mm ammo from Belgium. Presumably taken from a 'liberated' Libyan army facility.

In the meantime, discussion over where we're going and who's in charge continue. The Turks have no interest in this being a NATO op, the Italians won't let their bases be used unless it becomes a NATO op, and the Norwegians have grounded their airplanes until someone has decided who's running the show. Isn't this something which should have been sorted out before we started shooting? Wasn't as if there was no time to think about it.

NTM

Euroland

Manic Moran wrote: »

Isn't this something which should have been sorted out before we started shooting?

You (US) are shooting, but we (Ireland) are not, and never would be.

Overheal

Euroland wrote: »

You (US) are shooting, but we (Ireland) are not, and never would be.

Not at all what he said.

Manic Moran

Euroland wrote: »

You (US) are shooting, but we (Ireland) are not, and never would be.

It's a UN operation, so it's being done on Ireland's behalf as a member of the UN.

NTM

jimbob86

Its a bad situation out there...the libyans are stuck on a hole and there just going to have to dig there way out of it.

Jonny7

Euroland wrote: »

You would be laughing, but the website especially dedicated to the “Libyan revolution of 17 of February” had been registered 1 day before the “revolution” began, on 16/02/2011:


http://www.libyafeb17.com/

http://www.whois.net/whois/libyafeb17.com
Domain Name: LIBYAFEB17.COM
Registrar: WEBFUSION LTD.
Whois Server: whois.123-reg.co.uk
Referral URL: http://www.123-reg.co.uk
Name Server: NS1153.HOSTGATOR.COM
Name Server: NS1154.HOSTGATOR.COM
Status: ok
Updated Date: 16-feb-2011
Creation Date: 16-feb-2011
Expiration Date: 16-feb-2013




Therefore, indicating that “the uprising” was prepared in advance, and abroad.

Your posts and statements aren't exactly reflecting rational arguments, its very classic borderline conspiracy theory junk.

I called you out on it before, and now its back with a vengence. Its very close to trolling, I'll just ignore it for now and let others decide. If I get rapped on the knuckles for this so be it.

Jonny7

Manic Moran wrote: »

We've also seen pictures of the spoils of the Toyota Wars, such as 106mm ammo from Belgium. Presumably taken from a 'liberated' Libyan army facility.

In the meantime, discussion over where we're going and who's in charge continue. The Turks have no interest in this being a NATO op, the Italians won't let their bases be used unless it becomes a NATO op, and the Norwegians have grounded their airplanes until someone has decided who's running the show. Isn't this something which should have been sorted out before we started shooting? Wasn't as if there was no time to think about it.

NTM

Its one of the fastest reactions I've seen to date. Based on Egypt and Tunis - I think they wanted to sit it out and watch, perhaps naive, but I think everyone including Arab world caught out but Gaddafis viciousness - However the actual period of it going pear shaped (remember the rebels were initially doing well) was quite short. Hence any decision had to be very rushed.

This big bodies, UN, etc are extremely slow.

3 or 4 days more haggling and negotiating might have led to a better "struture" as such, but obv would've been far too late. Gaddafi military in the desert is easy, but once they got into Benghazi then a no fly zone would've been next to useless, and no one (except these conspiracy theorists) is stupid enough to think they actually want boots on the ground in a third place.

Lebanon were originally mentioned in all this - been very quiet since, perhaps I msised something

ISAW

Manic Moran wrote: »

Who cares? Even if the motive was because Saddam had said something about Bush's aunt's rose garden, there was a definite end-state in mind.

NTM

Yes but
"we have an end state in mind" is not justification for invading a sovereign state is it? Especially if the invasion is for the benefit of the oil business and other corporate concerns of the invader and payed for by the tax payer?
I mean why not apply the same criteria to other countries? Oh yes they are not against "US" and our economic interests are they? Twaddle about "bringing freedom" or "establishing democracy" just seems so fake given the history of invasion for economic interests.

ISAW

Manic Moran wrote: »

It's a UN operation, so it's being done on Ireland's behalf as a member of the UN.

NTM

UN security council ( controlled by the nuclear powers and Ireland is not a member) not UN general assembly.

http://ejil.oxfordjournals.org/content/16/5/879.full

The ICJ has not definitively decided whether SC decisions possess an overriding binding effect, but it has specified that the binding effect includes, ratione materiae, operational matters and covers, ratione personae, all Member States.

Unlike the recommendations of the SC,34 its decisions have binding force,35 but the Court has made only a provisional finding that SC decisions have an overriding normative power capable of pre-empting obligations flowing from traditional sources of international law.36 Recognizing such overriding binding force would give a secondary source of UN law (decisions) a greater normative value than many primary sources of international law (treaties) – thereby giving the SC a potentially very disruptive power – and would ultimately place great faith in the SC truly acting on behalf of all Member States.37

nacho libre

johngalway wrote: »

Whatever you think yourself. But, it's a bit rich to blame all the worlds ills on the Great Satan.

Except that wasn't what i was thinking.
Try again. I never said I was blaming America for all the world ills. The problem seems to be that those on the right are reluctant to hold them to account on any matter. Although, a valid criticism, which you've just pointed out is, some people seek to blame them for everything.

nacho libre

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

So tell us then, which air bases would they use to attack Zimbabwe and which assets would they use? What targets would they take out....every Hi-Lux that might be carrying a few militia with AK47s?*

*note that I would love to see mugabe die in a hail of fuel-air bombs.

at the risk of sounding flippant, you'd be better off asking manic moran, which would be the best course of military action to take, since i'm not a military man

Zimbabwe would require a ground invasion and would be counter productive.
10's of thousands would be killed in the guerilla warfare that ensued.

We may complain but we're lucky to be living in a civilised democracy..
Hence it's not and never was an option.

Manic Moran

Jonny7 wrote: »

Its one of the fastest reactions I've seen to date. Based on Egypt and Tunis - I think they wanted to sit it out and watch, perhaps naive, but I think everyone including Arab world caught out but Gaddafis viciousness - However the actual period of it going pear shaped (remember the rebels were initially doing well) was quite short. Hence any decision had to be very rushed.

Depends on where you think things started going pear-shaped. Once it was obvious that Gaddaffi was not using any restraint at all, it would have been a good idea to start the planning process. Waiting until after the rebels started getting their asses kicked back to the gates of Benghazi is too late to start coming up with contingency plans, even if they could not be enacted for whatever reason until all the politicians happened to sit down over tea at the conference long ago scheduled for the middle of the following week. Which is daft. They have airplanes. They have telephones. They could have sorted this all out much faster than they really did.

This big bodies, UN, etc are extremely slow.

Which is a problem. A good plan executed violently now is far better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow. It took, what, a week and a half to go from 'something must be done' to actually doing it? Loyalist troops were at the gates of Benghazi. Had the 'slowness' of the UN taken but another 24 hours, there probably wouldn't be much of a Benghazi left to save. Our Political Leaders are paid a lot of money to make difficult decisions.

I am reminded of the Yes Minister episode which discusses Standard Foreign Office Response in a Time of Crisis:

Say that nothing is going to happen;
Say something maybe going to happen, but we should do nothing about it;
Say maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do;
Say maybe there was something we could have done, but it is too late now.

With regards to Libya, we hit the first three, and very nearly came to the fourth. Committees take time, and the opposition can get inside the decision cycle very easily.

UN security council ( controlled by the nuclear powers and Ireland is not a member) not UN general assembly

Right, and you're (presumably) not a member of Dail Eireann, and not all TDs are a member of the Cabinet, yet they all make decisions on behalf of the larger organisations. Even if humble punters disagree with them.

Yes but
"we have an end state in mind" is not justification for invading a sovereign state is it?

Never said it was. But if you're going to go about invading people for whatever justification you may have in mind, it's probably a good idea to have a notion as to what you're actually trying to achieve at the end of it.

at the risk of sounding flippant, you'd be better off asking manic moran, which would be the best course of military action to take, since i'm not a military man

Don't know enough about the situation to comment intelligently. The geography of the place, however, strikes me as being fairly difficult.

NTM