The Libyan uprising

OS119

opinion guy wrote: »

He really is quite insane. I mean actually medically insane should be in a hospital on potent antipsychotic meds insane.

What you think we should send in our 3 boats, 4 planes and 6 APC's then?
Drum up a few FCA recruits whilst were at it ?

couple of field hospitals, helicopters, field engineering and logistic support units to sort out clean water and sewerage - Ireland could easily set up a refugee camp on the Tunisian border.

Ireland could send its special forces into opposition held areas of Libya - they could provide those forces with secure communications, act as conduits for satelite intelligence, advise on defending their areas, perhaps a little training on 'fell off the back of a lorry' man-portable Surface to Air missiles or Anti-Tank Guided Weapons.

you know, stuff that's well within Irelands military capability and would actually help...

Overheal

Jonny7 wrote: »

Dude, in Iraq, they went straight to the oil ministries and secured them as soon as possible. I remember many reporters on the various channels I was watching at the time pointing this out, while water treatment plants, electrical stations.. basically everything else was left. Actually, lets call a spade a spade, they were firing ****ing uranium rounds, they weren't really worried about 'environmental impact' now were they

Dude. I'm not saying securing the Oil was not of strategic interest to US Forces. What I am saying is that they were not there to make sure Iraqi museums were un-looted or that people had running water (in fact it seems to me that the best thing to do to throw insurgents off-balance would be to remove them from water and power). I am also saying that the US did not invade Iraq primarily to prevent the Iraqi military from sabotaging the oil infrastructure. What I am saying is that intervention in Libya will not result directly from Libyan Oil Infrastructure damage.

opinion guy

OS119 wrote: »

couple of field hospitals, helicopters, field engineering and logistic support units to sort out clean water and sewerage - Ireland could easily set up a refugee camp on the Tunisian border.

Ireland could send its special forces into opposition held areas of Libya - they could provide those forces with secure communications, act as conduits for satelite intelligence, advise on defending their areas, perhaps a little training on 'fell off the back of a lorry' man-portable Surface to Air missiles or Anti-Tank Guided Weapons.

you know, stuff that's well within Irelands military capability and would actually help...

And why do you think Ireland shoudl be doing that when no other countries with much more rescources aren't doing it ?


We could parachute a crack team of psyhciatrists to Gadaffi's compound thou.

Overheal

opinion guy wrote: »

And why do you think Ireland shoudl be doing that when no other countries with much more rescources aren't doing it ?

As mentioned earlier in the thread, Ireland is one of the largest importers of Libyan goods and commodities. Supplying humanitarian aid to the Tunisian border sounds like it would be good M.O.

mike65

180,000 refugees on various borders now.

opinion guy

Overheal wrote: »

As mentioned earlier in the thread, Ireland is one of the largest importers of Libyan goods and commodities. Supplying humanitarian aid to the Tunisian border sounds like it would be good M.O.

Sorry I don't understand your use of "M.O." here ?

Manic Moran

opinion guy wrote: »

And why do you think Ireland shoudl be doing that when no other countries with much more rescources aren't doing it ?

Some are. I was listening to Cameron on the radio today, saying they've sent tentage for some 1,500 people, blankets for 36,000, and have set up an air bridge between Tunisia and Egypt.

Ireland has, what, flown 50 people to Malta? I know that proportionally the country is less capable, but that much less? Since most every other nation in the world has more resources than Ireland, the logical conclusion is that Ireland should never do anything at all.

NTM

caseyann

Overheal wrote: »

As mentioned earlier in the thread, Ireland is one of the largest importers of Libyan goods and commodities. Supplying humanitarian aid to the Tunisian border sounds like it would be good M.O.

And Ireland up **** creak without a paddle,how ever sorry i feel for the people.Should swim into deeper **** when he has millions in a bank thats been seized? Ok i see the logic in that.

mike65

opinion guy wrote: »

Sorry I don't understand your use of "M.O." here ?

Method of Operation

OS119

caseyann wrote: »

And Ireland up **** creak without a paddle,how ever sorry i feel for the people.Should swim into deeper **** when he has millions in a bank thats been seized? Ok i see the logic in that.

everything i suggested has been bought and paid for - its resources that Ireland already owns.

even the UK's announced humanitarian contribution - the dispatched tentage etc, and the 6,000 person airbridge, won't cost much in the scheme of things, maybe £2million for perhaps 20 charter flights...

6,000 people get home, 1500 get shelter - its not solving the problem, and it'll have to be ramped up - but it helps people who need help, it makes friends with two new North African governments and its got the UK some excellent commentary on Al Jazera. bargain.

opinion guy

mike65 wrote: »

Method of Operation

See I've never seen M.O. used like this. M.O. as far as I know means Modus Operandi, and is applied to peoples psychological profiles. Latin which translates pretty much as the above except it doens't make grammatical sense to use if like this:

Overheal wrote: »

Supplying humanitarian aid to the Tunisian border sounds like it would be good M.O.

Unless its some military phrase I don't know about!!!

nacho libre

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12636798

Is this a ploy to see if he is amenable to fleeing the country? If he is indicted it will surely eventually result in a desperate last stand by him, unless he is taken out by someone close to him.

opinion guy

nacho libre wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12636798

Is this a ploy to see if he is amenable to fleeing the country? If he is indicted it will surely eventually result in a desperate last stand by him, unless he is taken out by someone close to him.

No I'd say its more to put pressure on the people around him. They know the man himself is insane, but I'd say this is to put the fear into the people close to him who will also be involved if their is a human rights investigation.

To be honest, I don't know why the brits/yanks/whoever don't just take him out by missile next time he's making a 2 hour speech from an identifiable location. I mean they've tried before....seems they could get away with it now

nacho libre

opinion guy wrote: »

No I'd say its more to put pressure on the people around him. They know the man himself is insane, but I'd say this is to put the fear into the people close to him who will also be involved if their is a human rights investigation.

To be honest, I don't know why the brits/yanks/whoever don't just take him out by missile next time he's making a 2 hour speech from an identifiable location. I mean they've tried before....seems they could get away with it now

Yes i'd say your right, he does seem unreachable at this point. I think the reason they haven't gone for a no-fly zone, is the same reason why they won't drop a bomb on him, unless they calculate that the risk of non intervention will lead to civil war. you can be sure behind the scenes intelligence agencies, along with western special forces are helping the opposition and also probing those close Gadaffi to see if they'll crack. It maybe as you suggest that someone close to him could be offered immunity from prosecution if they betray him. As someone pointed out earlier the reason military intervention maybe a last resort, is not because the west fears being percieved as only intervening militarily due to oil, but because countries like China will veto military action for as long as possible because of the precedent it may set. it may also be a case of if America intervenes in Libya, it fears they will be in an very awkward situation if a country like Saudia Arabia were the next focal point of violent unrest.

update:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Gadaffi-accepts-Chavez-s-mediation-offer/Article1-668961.aspx

Jonny7

State TV reporting they have seized 37 billion sedative pills in one of their ports

Sedatives.. hmm.. making people protest.. I have the feeling his 'supporters' will believe anything he says no matter how ridiculous

Everyone talks of US/UK military action - just not possible unless he is absolutely slaughtering unarmed innocents, catch 22 when there are armed opposition now (out of necessity I know)

UN going in on a 'mission' possible

NATO - not so much

Covertly supporting the rebels? very coldwar-esque even if this genuinely has a good motive as opposed to most grey ones in the past

opinion guy

nacho libre wrote: »

it may also be a case of if America intervenes in Libya, it fears they will be in an very awkward situation if a country like Saudia Arabia were the next focal point of violent unrest.

Yeah this I believe is the biggest problem with going in. Seeting precedents if Saudi or even Iran were to kick off majorly

update:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Gadaffi-accepts-Chavez-s-mediation-offer/Article1-668961.aspx

Wow. The world is a strange place. Chavez brokering peace in the middle east!?!!?!?!

Jonny7 wrote: »

State TV reporting they have seized 37 billion sedative pills in one of their ports

37 billion ?!??!
Ha I suppose if you are going to lie, lie big :P

Covertly supporting the rebels? very coldwar-esque even if this genuinely has a good motive as opposed to most grey ones in the past

I'd say this is already happening. The Brits and the Dutch have been in on the ground to get people out.....very very easy to drop off a few operatives whilst your at it.

mike65

Rebels tell Hugo Chavez "no thanks"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/03/libyan-rebels-reject-hugo-chavez

Jonny7

Pro-Gaddafi - airpower in the hundreds and tanks certainly in the hundreds, possible manpower 10's of thousands

Anti-Gaddafi - a few helicopters, couple of aging tanks, maybe 10k to 15k unorganised but high moral ex-army and civilians

Sorry those are extremely rough figures, could be way off the mark

I do not see how Gaddafi is not crushing this, although I suspect a lot of the pro jets are missing their mark on purpose.. will start to change if the rebels change from being countrymen to being the enemy - probably if they can bring a jet or two down. Aid ship with 1k ton of flour bound for 'rebels' turned back.

Replace the desert with Hoth and this is the Empire Strikes Back.. sorry couldn't resist.

Nodin

When you consider that Libya lost a war against Chad, it's not that suprising.....

Mervyn Crawford

There is an important article posted today by Nick Beams of www.wsws.org

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/mar2011/pers-m05.shtml

Jonny7

Gaddafi is really getting nasty now, they are going house to house to get the 'rats' as they call them. Pro Gaddafi forces getting organised, utilising vast amount of tanks and aircraft to crush. Outcome is going to be predictable.

I think we can risk intervention, at least a no-fly zone. I am very grateful for the heavy media coverage, not much sign of ridiculous pro-West pre-Iraq propaganda, just an extremely black and white situation.

I know the complexities of such an operation on whatever level and whatever scale, but it would send a very clear message to dictators and despots around the world.. it would send an even stronger message to protestors and people..

old_aussie

The Libyans should sort this out themselves.

What's the point of getting involved, the people you support at the start usually turn against the supporting countries, says Vladimir putin.....

Let the Arab nations sort it out for themselves.

Why risk the lives of our good soldiers fighting in an anti western nation?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RE6UXA5ZhU

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned Western countries against attempts of meddling in the Arab world to try to impose democracy.

Speaking after talks with the EU leadership, he said that previous efforts along those lines had led to victories for governments the West is now fighting to contain.

"Today, we say we're concerned about things happening in Libya. But the North African cell of Al-Qaeda is also concerned about what is happening in Libya. Do you think this is a coincidence?" the Russian PM asked.

"I would like to go back in history a little bit. The former leader of the Iranian revolution -- where did he live?! He lived in Paris and as a whole he was supported by the Western community. Now the entire Western community fights against the Iranian nuclear program," Putin pointed out.

"I remember just recently our partners were very active in supporting democratic elections in the Palestinian autonomy. And Hamas won. And immediately they declared Hamas a terrorist organization and started fighting against it. We need to give people a chance to determine their future themselves. We need to give them an opportunity to take a natural way without any foreign interference to build their future," he concluded.

Jonny7

old_aussie wrote: »

The Libyans should sort this out themselves.¨

Fine, but they will get slaughtered, they have no chance vs the modern dictator using modern technology. In fact Gaddafi is incompetant compared to the likes of Kim Il Yong who would have ZERO foreign media in the country and then just kill every protestor and have all their families thrown into Gulags - problem sorted - rule for the next 100 years.

What's the point of getting involved, the people you support at the start usually turn against the supporting countries, says Vladimir putin.....

Huh? this makes absolutely zero sense. Did the Polish turn against the allies in world war 2? Did the Iraqis turn against the US in 1991? Did the Croats turn against NATO?

If you have a black and white situation with no lies/bull**** propaganda/fake resource war crap - then intervention has been shown to work - but it will certainly NOT work if there is cold war crap involved

Let the Arab nations sort it out for themselves.

Why risk the lives of our good soldiers fighting in an anti western nation?

???? we want helping human beings who are being slaughtered by one man, his family and their hired mercenaries. The MAN not the people was anti-Western, then Pro-Western (if you remember) then Anti-Western

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned Western countries against attempts of meddling in the Arab world to try to impose democracy.

Again with Putin.. the guy has secret police, torture, off's journalists, you should really stop quoting him, doesn't look good.

Iraq was clearly 'meddling' under the guise of liberation

Yugoslavia was not 'meddling'

Speaking after talks with the EU leadership, he said that previous efforts along those lines had led to victories for governments the West is now fighting to contain.

Yes it was called the Cold War, when US and Russia would meddle with countries, support dictators, play games, etc. You do that, then people in those countries remember and rise up, e.g. Al Qaeda, etc

I don't see many Yugoslavia terrorists, or Polish terrorists

Again

Grey conflicts, grey situation - should be no go
Black and white - its possible

"Today, we say we're concerned about things happening in Libya. But the North African cell of Al-Qaeda is also concerned about what is happening in Libya. Do you think this is a coincidence?" the Russian PM asked.


"I would like to go back in history a little bit. The former leader of the Iranian revolution -- where did he live?! He lived in Paris and as a whole he was supported by the Western community. Now the entire Western community fights against the Iranian nuclear program," Putin pointed out.


"I remember just recently our partners were very active in supporting democratic elections in the Palestinian autonomy. And Hamas won. And immediately they declared Hamas a terrorist organization and started fighting against it. We need to give people a chance to determine their future themselves. We need to give them an opportunity to take a natural way without any foreign interference to build their future," he concluded.

Preaching, nice timing. What he is saying is true. Well done. A dictator and his family and his thugs and slaughtering their own people and Putin gets the soapbox, Chavez keeps repeating all this, I've written it many times. We in the West are hypocrites, etc, etc - how on earth does this help solve situation right now in Libya? thats right it doesn't

He is more interested in getting his antiWest preach done

He wouldn't be saying any of this if Norway, Sweden, Japan - basically a coalition of NON US/UK got together and forumalated a plan for a no fly zone

Mervyn Crawford

The struggle against Gadaffi, and the Libyan borgeoisie he represents, is confused. The Libyan masses have no socialist party of their own and are moving through the phase of spontanaeity. The movement will by itself become more organised, harden and develop a certain level of political insight.

To ask imperialism to 'defend' the Libyans flys in the face of history. So called 'progressive' smaller western powers such as Norway are of course part of NATO!

The Libyan masses are more than able to settle accounts with Gadaffi; what they are not able to do without turning conciously to political questions is to take the step posed - seizing complete political power and abolishing the capitalist state in Libya.

Just as the election of so-called left-wing TDs to the Dail does not stop the looting of Irish state coffers and the imposition of savage attacks on the Irish People. So the toppling of Gadaffi in itself, or Mubarak, does not actually bring the working class to power.

Global forces driving Middle East uprisings:
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/mar2011/pers-m05.shtml

Nodin

It would seem that the side that has got its shit together the most is rather unfortunately (if somewhat predictably) the Colonels.....

An air, land and sea assault by Muammar Gaddafi's forces has pushed Libyan rebels into retreat around the strategic oil town of Ras Lanuf even as the revolutionary leadership celebrated its official recognition by France, which could open the way to foreign financial and military support.

The regime in Tripoli struck back against the rebels whose once rapid advance stalled last week about 300 miles short of the capital. They have been forced to retreat from Ras Lanuf under artillery and air bombardment.
In the west Gaddafi's army appeared to have finally retaken the shattered city of Zawiya after fierce see-saw battles this week. Zawiya is strategically significant because it is close to his powerbase in Tripoli, the capital.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/10/libya-gaddafi-takes-ras-lanuf

Manic Moran

Well, we could see that one coming.

NTM

doomed

Freedom is being slowly snuffed out in Libya and you can almost smell the fear even from here. Superior weaponry will defeat idealism and courage.

Coreleoine

I view this situation with horror.. yet another Arab "problem". I heard an individual at a petrol station the other day blaming the increase in fuel to this annoying "problem". The "problem" is the genocide of a proud people, men,women and children by a mad, evil dictator AND his equally so offspring. We are losing a paltry money at the Petrol Pump they are losing their blood and lives against insurmountable odds on the streets of Libya. We have little to worry about. Let us not forget that the West armed this monster and turned the other cheek on his detention centres of 40 years were all his opponents were "cleansed" never to be seen again. He also allowed terrorist groups to train in his deserts to bring atrocities to European cities and English and Northern Ireland ones also. He also visited the most horrific Christmas gift upon a family's flight home to America and the innocent sleeping people of Lockerbie and to crowd of innocent kids enjoying a Disco in Germany. And he continues. What do we in the west do ? Like cowards we talk the talk without walking the walk. We rattle our sabres at a safe distance waiting for this resolution or that resolution. We realise how impotent NATO is in all this..they just wait. The Monster's troops (sorry killers) are advancing east and pursuing a scorched earth policy...the elderly, women, children..even ambulances and hospital are becoming targets. I notice the courage of our journalists running with the rebels to escape death..it is only a matter of time before we will start losing them. America, Britain, France, NATO get off your bloody arses and do something to aid these unfortunate people. You let Israelis bomb their neighbours,America invade Iraq because of non-existent weapons of mass destruction and turned a blind eye to another Monster in Iran who shot young people demonstrating peacefully on the streets of Tehran. I have a strange feeling that there is a hidden agenda to all this in that we do not wish to upset oil suppliers. I think the Arabs know this and view us with utter contempt. We are supposed to be Christian at this time of Lent but I drop this in the hope that Gadaffi and that evil son will soon be hanging, drawn and quartered from a palm tree in Libya. I make no apologies for this.:mad:

Manic Moran

The "problem" is the genocide of a proud people, men,women and children by a mad, evil dictator AND his equally so offspring.

True.

Let us not forget that the West armed this monster

Apart from the four Mirage F1s, two of which flew to Malta, I've not actually seen any footage of anyone from either side using Western supplied equipment, except for a recoilless rifle captured from Chad. I've seen Su-24s, PKMs, ZPU-4s, T-72s, 2S1s, AK-47s, RPGs, Strelas, AT-3s... All Soviet. True, there should be some Italian-built warships somewhere, but they're not doing much, it seems.

America, Britain, France, NATO get off your bloody arses and do something to aid these unfortunate people.

What do you have in mind? Bearing in mind that the Arab world in general doesn't seem to want us to interfere. Have you seen calls from the Arab League asking NATO to bomb Gadaffi's tanks? (Have they no equipment of their own to do it?) Have you seen the rebels ask for airstrikes? (I'm sure they will eventually, their stand on principle thus far is getting them killed). Would you like the Marines to land on the shores of Tripoli again? Who should they shoot? We're very good at killing people, the catch is that in a civil war, it's pretty hard for a foreigner to figure out who needs killing.

NTM

jmayo

Nodin wrote: »

When you consider that Libya lost a war against Chad, it's not that suprising.....

Ah the Toyota war.
Did wonders for Hilux sales.

old_aussie wrote: »

The Libyans should sort this out themselves.

What's the point of getting involved, the people you support at the start usually turn against the supporting countries, says Vladimir putin.....

Let the Arab nations sort it out for themselves.

Why risk the lives of our good soldiers fighting in an anti western nation?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RE6UXA5ZhU

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned Western countries against attempts of meddling in the Arab world to try to impose democracy.

Speaking after talks with the EU leadership, he said that previous efforts along those lines had led to victories for governments the West is now fighting to contain.

"Today, we say we're concerned about things happening in Libya. But the North African cell of Al-Qaeda is also concerned about what is happening in Libya. Do you think this is a coincidence?" the Russian PM asked.
...

Putin is interested in what's good for Russia.
Firstly Russia has it's own concerns and don't like outsiders meddling in their affairs.
Secondly Russia fears the rise of Muslim fundamentalism just as much as the US, probably even more so as they have large population and large number of muslim neighbours.
Lastly Gadaffi would be an old ally and where will he source his equipment as the West once agin freezes him out ?

Manic Moran wrote: »

True.

Apart from the four Mirage F1s, two of which flew to Malta, I've not actually seen any footage of anyone from either side using Western supplied equipment, except for a recoilless rifle captured from Chad. I've seen Su-24s, PKMs, ZPU-4s, T-72s, 2S1s, AK-47s, RPGs, Strelas, AT-3s... All Soviet. True, there should be some Italian-built warships somewhere, but they're not doing much, it seems.

What do you have in mind? Bearing in mind that the Arab world in general doesn't seem to want us to interfere. Have you seen calls from the Arab League asking NATO to bomb Gadaffi's tanks? (Have they no equipment of their own to do it?) Have you seen the rebels ask for airstrikes? (I'm sure they will eventually, their stand on principle thus far is getting them killed). Would you like the Marines to land on the shores of Tripoli again? Who should they shoot? We're very good at killing people, the catch is that in a civil war, it's pretty hard for a foreigner to figure out who needs killing.

NTM

Well they are using Japanese vehicles (see reply above).
Although I have spotted 12.7mm atop a Mitsubishi L200 rather than Hilux.
Nice to see competition in the marketplace. :rolleyes:

The other Arab countries do not want ot back rebels in another country when they have their own at home they need to worry about.
Hence Saudi Arabia is in no hurry to supposedly help the US get arms to the rebels.