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Galway West Election results

skelliser · 2011-02-26 12:10:00

May as well start a thread to follow the count from leisureland. Latest Tallies http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23gyw Fixed the link

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#92 27-02-2011 12:47pm
johngalway

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eagle10 wrote: »

It will be interesting to see where forty gafs votes go I presume they will push o coimh up a bit maybe connolly may benefit cant see many going to fg

Eh, how do you figure? A lot of FF transfers seem to be going to FG nationally. Also I believe FF and FHE are not too far from each other geographically?

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#93 27-02-2011 12:50pm
eagle10

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johngalway wrote: »

Eh, how do you figure? A lot of FF transfers seem to be going to FG nationally. Also I believe FF and FHE are not too far from each other geographically?

I think that maybe people that voted for forty gafs are die hard ff it seems that he really isn't liked therefor I think that a die hard ffer wouldn't vote fg but I could be way off the mark

Forty gafs lives in carrig ban menlo fhe is out oranmore connolly (grattan) is closer geographically

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#94 27-02-2011 1:40pm
Ficheall

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So O Cuiv's elected..
What are the criteria for being 'elected', as it were? Is there a quota to be reached or somesuch?

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#95 27-02-2011 1:43pm
WesternNight

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Ficheall wrote: »

So O Cuiv's elected..
What are the criteria for being 'elected', as it were? Is there a quota to be reached or somesuch?

Yes...there's a quota..

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#96 27-02-2011 1:48pm
Dunjohn

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The quota's 10,122 in this constituency.

Incidently, where are people following it? I'm using rte.ie, it has all the info there.

O'Cuiv has just been elected, finally! He got more than 2000 of Fahey's transfers, Nolan didn't even get 200. He'll probably get a good rake of the Sinn Fein votes, though.

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#97 27-02-2011 2:10pm
johngalway

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Just looking at the RTE numbers between Fine Gaels candidates FHE on 6725 and Sean Kyne on 6651 on the 8th count.

Is there any further thinking on how they'll do with SF's transfers when that candidate is eliminated?

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#98 27-02-2011 2:12pm
johngalway

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Odds against Connolly winning the final seat lengthening considerably according to Jim Fahy on RTE just now.

Dog fight between FHE & Kyne.

Am not going to have any finger nails left soon..........

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#99 27-02-2011 2:20pm
dr.bollocko

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johngalway wrote: »

Odds against Connolly winning the final seat lengthening considerably according to Jim Fahy on RTE just now.

Dog fight between FHE & Kyne.

Am not going to have any finger nails left soon..........

I think Naughtons voters would have given a preference to FHE over Kyne pushing her ahead for now but it's very very tight.

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#100 27-02-2011 2:25pm
johngalway

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dr.bollocko wrote: »

I think Naughtons voters would have given a preference to FHE over Kyne pushing her ahead for now but it's very very tight.

That's my thinking too Dr B. I'm guessing most of the SF transfers will go to Nolan and Connolly (in no order there). But what'll be important is how many go to FG and to which candidate.

Very very tight indeed.

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#101 27-02-2011 2:33pm
johngalway

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Pure speculation:

After the distribution of the SF transfers I think Kyne will get ahead of FHE.

Assuming Connolly is eliminated after that, I'm starting to think her transfers would favour FHE, geography, gender.

Back to square one, who get's what % of both of those.

I'd give Dr B's right arm for a time machine :pac:

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#102 27-02-2011 2:36pm
Sponge Bob

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Like I said in the GE forum, I expect F to be eliminated before Kyne and Connolly. If her votes skew overly towards Walsh Conolly could sneak in. If not skewed then Walsh and Kyne will be elected ....both elected last and without either reaching the quota.

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#103 27-02-2011 2:40pm
Unrealistic

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Dunjohn wrote: »

The quota's 10,122 in this constituency.

Incidently, where are people following it? I'm using rte.ie, it has all the info there.

RTE is showing O'Cuiv elected after the 8th count but isn't showing O'Clochartaigh as having been eliminated. Is the 9th count really just a distribution of O'Cuiv's surplus? What's the point of that if O'Cuiv's surplus of 1034 is nowhere near enough to bridge the 1825 gap between O'Clochartaigh and Connolly?

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#104 27-02-2011 2:45pm
Ficheall

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How would they distribute a surplus? :-/

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#105 27-02-2011 2:48pm
Unrealistic

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Ficheall wrote: »

How would they distribute a surplus? :-/

By following a very complicated procedure that I still don't fully understand but which approximates proportionally where the total next preferences of that candidate would go.

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#106 27-02-2011 2:50pm
pleasant Co.

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Removed, see below.

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#107 27-02-2011 2:52pm
Sponge Bob

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Mactard wrote: »

Asked and answered here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=70827365

No it isn't, that answer refers to a first count surplus only I did answer the specific question some weeks back somewhere hereabouts.

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#108 27-02-2011 2:53pm
biko

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Dunjohn wrote: »

Incidently, where are people following it? I'm using rte.ie, it has all the info there.

Yeah I use http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/galway-west.html

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#109 27-02-2011 2:54pm
pleasant Co.

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Sponge Bob wrote: »

No it isn't, that answer refers to a first count surplus only I did answer the specific question some weeks back somewhere hereabouts.

My apologies.

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#110 27-02-2011 3:02pm
Ficheall

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It sounds needlessly complicated tbh, and introduces an element of chance...

Why not just continue on as they were, ignoring the surplus, and elect whoever isn't eliminated?
As it is, the people who got their first choice in Eamonn O Cuiv, now also have a 'say' in who the others that get in are. So their vote counts towards two people. Whereas someone who voted for, say, Cubbard, who went out in the first round, transfers their vote to one person, as their first choice hasn't gotten in. Those who back a 'winning horse', as it were, seem to have a greater say than those who don't.

Not that it makes a whole pile of difference who gets in in the end anyway, but...

edit: sigh... nevermind..

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#111 27-02-2011 3:05pm
Sponge Bob

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The last 2000 votes that O Cuiv Got came from Fahey. Of these 1000 got him to the Quota and 1000 were surplus.

They will not look at any votes that O Cuiv gathered before the Fahey lump transferred. O Cuivs surplus will be entirely taken from those Fahey votes meaning Grealish will get minimum 500 and more likely 700 of the 1000. Non transferables are discarded , eg someone voting 1 fahey and 2 O Cuiv with no number 3 and that means that if a surplus is 1000 then a full 1000 votes will be distributed.

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#112 27-02-2011 3:16pm
johngalway

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Count 9

FHE 6814
Kyne 6735
CC 6573

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#113 27-02-2011 3:28pm
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So FHE is in?

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#114 27-02-2011 3:29pm
snubbleste

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Deleted User wrote: »

So FHE is in?

Not by a long shot.

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#115 27-02-2011 3:30pm
WesternNight

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Deleted User wrote: »

So FHE is in?

Not yet. Results of 10th count should be in shortly.

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#116 27-02-2011 3:33pm
johngalway

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Is the 10th count to be the final count?

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#117 27-02-2011 3:36pm
snubbleste

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johngalway wrote: »

Is the 10th count to be the final count?

No, why would it be?

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#118 27-02-2011 3:37pm
johngalway

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snubbleste wrote: »

No, why would it be?

I'm not well up on the process, I was wondering.

I presumed that was the distribution of the SF transfers. In GE11 I was told it was O Cuiv's surplus, not SF.

Am happier knowing that!

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#119 27-02-2011 3:46pm
Dunjohn

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There'll be a good few counts left, probably. There are two more eliminations to make, and the surplusses of elected candidated also need to be redistributed. It could be the fourteenth or fifteenth count before it's finished.

I'm not sure why they didn't run the O'Cuiv surplus and O'Clochertaigh elimination counts together, though, since that thousand votes could neither elect anybody or save anybody. Can anyone explain that?

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#120 27-02-2011 3:52pm
woidoi

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Anybody else notice that RTE TV's coverage of the Galway counts has been practically non-existent? And what was Jim Fahy on during the one o'clock news. Very odd. Thank God for boards to keep us up to date.!

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#121 27-02-2011 3:55pm
Unrealistic

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Dunjohn wrote: »

There'll be a good few counts left, probably. There are two more eliminations to make, and the surplusses of elected candidated also need to be redistributed. It could be the fourteenth or fifteenth count before it's finished.

I'm not sure why they didn't run the O'Cuiv surplus and O'Clochertaigh elimination counts together, though, since that thousand votes could neither elect anybody or save anybody. Can anyone explain that?

I asked that as well but I since figured out that the answer is probably so that portion of O'Cuiv's surplus that went to O'Clochertaigh could then be distributed on further when O'Clochertaigh was eliminated rather than disappearing into a black hole.

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