Galway West Election results

Sponge Bob · 27-02-2011 3:56pm

O Cuivs surplus _could_ have elected Nolan is the reason they distributed it at that time. The rules for surplus distribution are weird and mixing the surplus up with O Clochartaigh votes _could_ have made distributing Nolans own surplus thereafter very very messy.

As it is on this count there will probably be a Nolan surplus but as it will be O Clochartaigh votes that got Nolan _his_ surplus the bulk of that Nolan surplus will go to Connolly. Kyne should go past FHE too.

Then FHE will likely be eliminated and 2 counts will likely ensue.

1. Distribute FHE and Walsh may go over the line with a surplus. If so.
2. Distribute Walsh surplus and Kyne may go past Connolly at that point

So up to 3 more counts before this is done and dusted. Grealish will not make the quota but won't be caught by Kyne or Connolly either. Nolan and Walsh look likely to make the quota now.

HTH

snubbleste · 27-02-2011 3:57pm

No true Dunjohn, CuívÓ's surplus was 1034. That could have put Nolan over the quota.

Unrealistic · 27-02-2011 4:00pm

Deleted User wrote: »

So FHE is in?

Much more likely I would think that O'Clochartaigh's next preferences favour Kyne (Connemara factor) and Connolly (left leaning element). They could both be nudged ahead of FHE so that she is the next eliminated.

Dunjohn · 27-02-2011 4:32pm

snubbleste wrote: »

No true Dunjohn, CuívÓ's surplus was 1034. That could have put Nolan over the quota.

You're dead right, I keep thinking the quota is 11,000, not 10,000, so Nolan was within a thousand of it.

Sponge Bob · 27-02-2011 4:40pm

Nolan is over the quota now, just needs announcing. A Conflab of senior FG people was underway some time back in Leisureland on whether ( and precisely when) to ask for a recount. I am unaware of how it concluded. It will probably be before any Nolan surplus is distributed.

WesternNight · 27-02-2011 4:43pm

Nolan finally elected. Only 329 of a surplus though apparently.

27-02-2011 4:53pm

somone tweeted that connolly is up to 8231 after SF transfers, is that true?

Anyone have up to date figures?

dloob · 27-02-2011 4:53pm

Connolly got a big boost from the SF redistribution, looking like Fidelma to go next I don't think the surplus from Nolan will help her.
It's all down to where her votes go then.

27-02-2011 4:57pm

With FG bound to lose someone now surely it's just a matter fo time before they ask for a recount?

WesternNight · 27-02-2011 4:59pm

03046290 wrote: »

With FG bound to lose someone now surely it's just a matter fo time before they ask for a recount?

Yep, especially when there are only 56 votes between them at this stage.

johngalway · 27-02-2011 5:04pm

1,200 now between Kyne and Connolly. What're the thoughts of our clued in folks on that size gap?

dloob · 27-02-2011 5:07pm

Full recount requested by Healy-Eames.

Predalien · 27-02-2011 5:10pm

johngalway wrote: »

1,200 now between Kyne and Connolly. What're the thoughts of our clued in folks on that size gap?

Probably won't be enough, she'll pick up a good chunk of Nolan's small surplus, but looks likely Healy Eames will be excluded next and her transfers are likely to push the remaining Fine Gael candidates back ahead of Connolly.

WesternNight · 27-02-2011 5:10pm

johngalway wrote: »

1,200 now between Kyne and Connolly. What're the thoughts of our clued in folks on that size gap?

Well, there's a full recount ordered now and it'll start at 6.30pm this evening. Don't forget about Brian Walsh though, who's 400 clear of Kyne. Walsh is in 5th place and Kyne in 6th.

So, whatever happens it'll be FG candidate who's out next so their surplus will likely go mainly to the other FGs, probably fairly equally...Kyne would need to gain way more than Walsh gains to have any chance.

Sponge Bob · 27-02-2011 5:10pm

Fidelma Really-Screams and gets her recount , count adjourned till 18:30

LadyMayBelle · 27-02-2011 5:11pm

recount! Great Nolan finally got elected!

dr.bollocko · 27-02-2011 5:14pm

dloob wrote: »

Full recount requested by Healy-Eames.

I reckon she just wants to take credit for it.
Walsh 7491, Kyne with 7059 to FHE with 7003 according to RTE now.

ArtSmart · 27-02-2011 5:17pm

"FG members are spitting fire at the moment. Many were very unhappy with the four candidate strategy and feel that what is happening now is proof of that as FG looks set to lose out on a second seat to Independent Catherine Connolly. One FG member told me. "There are many who are trying to blame this on HQ but they were the ones who wanted it. We should never have run two in the city!"

according to the Galway advertiser

27-02-2011 5:17pm

Anyone else following the updates on the Galway Advertiser's Facebook page? It's actually pretty fantastic coverage!

27-02-2011 5:17pm

My god i feel sorry for all those in the count centre. Certainly earning their money this weekend!

dr.bollocko · 27-02-2011 5:18pm

03046290 wrote: »

My god i feel sorry for all those in the count centre. Certainly earning their money this weekend!

Just popped in as I was walking the prom and the atmosphere in there is quite exciting.

Sponge Bob · 27-02-2011 5:40pm

Fidelma has not one, not two but THREE senior legal advisors coming down to Leisureland for the recount. Sadly we will only ever see a pack of suits gathered around a table in the middle of the room...mainly nodding in unison

Kyne had better make sure he has an equal number of senior legal eagles representing HIS interests in that there recount or else Fidelma will cook his political goose damn good

dr.bollocko · 27-02-2011 5:43pm

Why was O'Cuiv such a vote topper? My constituency is Limerick City but I've been living in Galway now for a few years... No idea why this FF lad is so popular?

Ficheall · 27-02-2011 5:45pm

I didn't give him a high preference, but if I had it would have been for this incident:
http://www.advertiser.ie/images/2008/12//6011_thumb.jpg

LowOdour · 27-02-2011 5:47pm

dr.bollocko wrote: »

Why was O'Cuiv such a vote topper? My constituency is Limerick City but I've been living in Galway now for a few years... No idea why this FF lad is so popular?

Its the gaeltacht/connemara vote...he has history in the area, well before the celtic tiger era. Wouldnt have voted for him myself, but i see why people did

Dunjohn · 27-02-2011 5:52pm

Ficheall wrote: »

I didn't give him a high preference, but if I had it would have been for this incident:
http://www.advertiser.ie/images/2008/12//6011_thumb.jpg

I can't see what's happening there. Is he doing a Michael Jackson?

WesternNight · 27-02-2011 5:57pm

LowOdour wrote: »

Its the gaeltacht/connemara vote...he has history in the area, well before the celtic tiger era. Wouldnt have voted for him myself, but i see why people did

Seemingly he has done a huge amount of work in that area of the constituency consistently for years, rather than sitting around twiddling his thumbs like a lot of others seem to do.

boardswalker · 27-02-2011 6:09pm

WesternNight wrote: »

Seemingly he has done a huge amount of work in that area of the constituency consistently for years, rather than sitting around twiddling his thumbs like a lot of others seem to do.

He is also a man of the highest integrity.;)
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/o-cuiv-pledge-heads-off-pds-move-341774.html

Robbo · 27-02-2011 6:09pm

dr.bollocko wrote: »

Why was O'Cuiv such a vote topper? My constituency is Limerick City but I've been living in Galway now for a few years... No idea why this FF lad is so popular?

Looking after his constituents and traditional Gaeltacht industries.

Unrealistic · 27-02-2011 6:09pm

Dunjohn wrote: »

I can't see what's happening there. Is he doing a Michael Jackson?

http://www.advertiser.ie/galway/article/6011

Galway West Election results

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