Euro recovering against the British Pound - good news for bargain hunters.

Skopzz

GBP is falling against the EUR. As someone who follows the currency markets regularly, this may be the LAST time the EUR strengthens to this level or close against GBP. The U.K is poised to raise interest rates in the second quarter of 2011 which means the Pound would likely strengthen significantly against the Euro. Therefore, I recommend that all you bargain hunters closely follow the exchange rate if you plan to buy any GBP very soon. I recommend you buy a 'reserve' amount, particularly if you're a regular cross-border shopper. By buying a large amount, it can help cushion you from any possible strengthening of GBP against the EUR. I bought GBP600 back in October 2010 and I'm so glad I did given the rate soon turned against the Euro. The international exchange rate for GBP vs EUR is good right now.....

Some cross-border competition does no harm down here Especially when you compare your shopping bills.

Skopzz

and for those who say our exports become uncompetitive when the Pound weakens, here's my perspective:

Growth in the export market at what cost? What a laugh that is. We barely manufacture much to export and haven't done so for years. All the weak Euro does is drive the Irish standard of living through the floor.

91011

You're basing this on what? Just Interest rates?

Currency trading is far more than an interest rate move.

The UK won't hit its grwth targets this year, consumer spending is down, prices are up. Its a mess and there's a stong likelihood sterling will fall further. When interest rates move up, so will morthgages, taking more spending out.

Also, prices in UK are now higher than Ireland for many things including dining out, hotels, fuel, clothing and many other items.

The eurozone is all about Germany & France - Germany is movign at the speed of a ferrari and continued growth there & France will lift the rest of the eurozone.

Rates in eurozone are expected to rise by a minimum of 1% and up to 1.5% this year.

For small amounts (under £10k) leave it to the market rate on the day.

as for my "experience", this year, I'll buy in excess of £500,000 and I'm still not fixing my rate. (until I see 89+)

Skopzz

91011 wrote: »

You're basing this on what? Just Interest rates?

Currency trading is far more than an interest rate move.

The UK won't hit its grwth targets this year, consumer spending is down, prices are up. Its a mess and there's a stong likelihood sterling will fall further. When interest rates move up, so will morthgages, taking more spending out.

Also, prices in UK are now higher than Ireland for many things including dining out, hotels, fuel, clothing and many other items.

The eurozone is all about Germany & France - Germany is movign at the speed of a ferrari and continued growth there & France will lift the rest of the eurozone.

Rates in eurozone are expected to rise by a minimum of 1% and up to 1.5% this year.

For small amounts (under £10k) leave it to the market rate on the day.

as for my "experience", this year, I'll buy in excess of £500,000 and I'm still not fixing my rate. (until I see 89+)

The British Pound will NOT fall much further against the Euro because the Eurozone debt crisis will keep the Euro weakened against the British Pound. It's only a matter of time until Portugal gets bailed out (look at their bond yields on this chart):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND#chart


I agree, some prices are higher while others are lower. But Eurozone inflation is also catching up.

91011

But what's your experience, are you a trined currency trader or is this an amateur's prediction.

I Say this because it reads like you are givign "financial" advice.

Markets are ridicuolusly unpredictable at present. Credit Suisse, Barclays & Soc General said the dollar / euro would drop to 1.06 - 1.12 by Christmas last. It was $1.35. And they're experts.

I, as a reasonble buyer of sterling won't in a rate becasue the market is too volatile.

davo10

Skopzz wrote: »

and for those who say our exports become uncompetitive when the Pound weakens, here's my perspective:

Growth in the export market at what cost? What a laugh that is. We barely manufacture much to export and haven't done so for years. All the weak Euro does is drive the Irish standard of living through the floor.

When I read this post first I thought the poster was at best joking or at worst trolling, my first instinct was NOT that this could quite possibly be the stupidist person in Ireland. In recent years we have been bombarded daily with news of economic problems so that the Irish people now probably know more about economics then ever before in our history.

Every economy in the world relies heavily on exports. Irish exports in December 2010 alone were worth €7241,000,000.00 to Irish businesses, that is seven thousand, two hundred and forty one MILLION euro in one month, to describe this as "barely manufacture much" is mind boggling and shows a staggeringly inept understanding of the basics of commerce.

The biggest private empoloyers in Ireland produce goods for export, eg Intel, Abbots etc, can you imagine the impact of their closure?, today the dollar is at $1.39 and the pound at £.86 making buying goods from Ireland very expensive which is extremely bad for exports.

The agricultural industry/food industry/drinks industry/manufacturing and engineering industry rely heavily on their primary market, the UK for business and all of them are less attractive to purchasers when the value of sterling is less against the Euro.

There is absolutely no way OP works in the commercial/financial sector because he lacks even a rudimentary understanding of fiscal/economic matters.

91011

you'd be very surprised at what we export

13% of the world's baby formula is made in Ireland.

Every Pizza Hut topping served in every pizza hut restaurant in Europe is made in naas, same for every subway meat filling.

Material for airlcraft seats is made in Donegal.

Every goodfellas pizza is made in kildare (no 1 seller in uk)

Every san marco pizza is made in longford (number 4 in uk)

Kerry foods is the worlds leading flavour manufacturer - their main flavour lab is in Kerry

the list is endless.

Skopzz

davo10 wrote: »

When I read this post first I thought the poster was at best joking or at worst trolling, my first instinct was NOT that this could quite possibly be the stupidist person in Ireland. In recent years we have been bombarded daily with news of economic problems so that the Irish people now probably know more about economics then ever before in our history.

Every economy in the world relies heavily on exports. Irish exports in December 2010 alone were worth €7241,000,000.00 to Irish businesses, that is seven thousand, two hundred and forty one MILLION euro in one month, to describe this as "barely manufacture much" is mind boggling and shows a staggeringly inept understanding of the basics of commerce.

The biggest private empoloyers in Ireland produce goods for export, eg Intel, Abbots etc, can you imagine the impact of their closure?, today the dollar is at $1.39 and the pound at £.86 making buying goods from Ireland very expensive which is extremely bad for exports.

The agricultural industry/food industry/drinks industry/manufacturing and engineering industry rely heavily on their primary market, the UK for business and all of them are less attractive to purchasers when the value of sterling is less against the Euro.

There is absolutely no way OP works in the commercial/financial sector because he lacks even a rudimentary understanding of fiscal/economic matters.

I forgive you Davo, you must have been drunk when you wrote that but thank you for your kind reply.

We had over 10 years to prove that we were a competitive export nation and what did we do? We blew it. We became preoccupied with a real estate bubble, exports collapsed. Then came the financial crisis followed by the sovereign debt crisis. Irish exports cost more regardless of currency rates. People want a variety rather than eating or using the same product just because it's made here. That's the choice of democracy. Most of our manufacturing has been lost for good - there is no return. We haven't much willpower or initiative to sustain a low-cost operating environment anyway. Also, you do know that Ireland will soon be forced to increase it's corporation tax, right? More manufacturing losses again, oh dear. The cost of producing something here simply offsets it's attractiveness. The weak Pound is good for Irish consumers and shoppers, our standard of living should not have to suffer during these austere times.

Skopzz

91011 wrote: »

you'd be very surprised at what we export

13% of the world's baby formula is made in Ireland.

Every Pizza Hut topping served in every pizza hut restaurant in Europe is made in naas, same for every subway meat filling.

Material for airlcraft seats is made in Donegal.

Every goodfellas pizza is made in kildare (no 1 seller in uk)

Every san marco pizza is made in longford (number 4 in uk)

Kerry foods is the worlds leading flavour manufacturer - their main flavour lab is in Kerry

the list is endless.

Those aren't sustainable exports. They are vulnerable to food inflation right now with rising commodity prices. Real exports are things like Automobiles or Aircraft parts, etc. Looking at the prices of those products on the U.K market and they are among the most expensive compared to the ''own brand'' goods. Curiously, they work out a little cheaper than here in Ireland.

davo10

Skopzz stop posting for a while and do some research because while your currency alerts are informative your lack of understanding of fiscal matters undermines your arguments. Exports did not collapse in the last 10 years, in fact they have risen from €18.2 billion to €84.3 billion from 1990 to 2009, how you view this as a collapse is a mystery. The rest of your post is waffle.

Skopzz

davo10 wrote: »

Skopzz stop posting for a while and do some research because while your currency alerts are informative your lack of understanding of fiscal matters undermines your arguments. Exports did not collapse in the last 10 years, in fact they have risen from €18.2 billion to €84.3 billion from 1990 to 2009, how you view this as a collapse is a mystery. The rest of your post is waffle.

Davo
Get your short-sighted specs adjusted. I did NOT say our exports had disappeared! I encourage you not to run your mouth before thinking.

and if our exports are our savior, they didn't save Ireland from getting bailed-out.

Rabble Rabble

Skopzz wrote: »

Those aren't sustainable exports. They are vulnerable to food inflation right now with rising commodity prices. Real exports are things like Automobiles or Aircraft parts, etc. Looking at the prices of those products on the U.K market and they are among the most expensive compared to the ''own brand'' goods. Curiously, they work out a little cheaper than here in Ireland.

jesus wept. There is no distinction between "unreal" and "real" exports, except in your mind. As for food inflation, we grow far more than we consume. Why aircrafts would be sustainable is beyond me, and of course branded goods are more expensive.

Skopzz

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

jesus wept. There is no distinction between "unreal" and "real" exports, except in your mind. As for food inflation, we grow far more than we consume. Why aircrafts would be sustainable is beyond me, and of course branded goods are more expensive.

You do realize that before Ireland joined the Euro, our old currency (Punt) was always pegged at parity with GBP. So why now is the closeness between GBP and EUR such a big issue if it wasn't an issue back then?

davo10

Skopzz wrote: »

Davo
Get your short-sighted specs adjusted. I did NOT say our exports had disappeared! I encourage you not to run your mouth before thinking.

and if our exports are our savior, they didn't save Ireland from getting bailed-out.

Skopzz this is becoming laughable, the term you used was "collapsed" which is what I replied to, no one suggested you said they had "dissappeared".

The bailout is due to domestic policies and global downturn and has absolutely nothing to do with our exports except for the fact that we would be in far worse trouble if exports were not strong (hint businesses would close and employment would rise further).

Maybe the CSO website and have a look at their statistics, the value of exports in Q3 of 2010 were worth €40 billion.


No, No, No, just when I thought I was out you drag me back in, the pound and punt were never "pegged" at parity. It was £1stg to £Ir1.24 in the 12 months before we joined the Euro. Please provide evidence that the currencies were ever "pegged at parity".

Tigger

Skopzz wrote: »

You do realize that before Ireland joined the Euro, our old currency (Punt) was always pegged at parity with GBP. So why now is the closeness between GBP and EUR such a big issue if it wasn't an issue back then?

no it wasn't

1979-2002
Ireland joined the European Monetary System (EMS) which began operation on 13th March 1979. Initially the Irish Punt kept parity with Pound Sterling but on 30th March 1979 the link was broken when sterling broke the fluctuation limits set for the Irish Punt.

although weve been fixed against the euro since 01-01-99

Skopzz

davo10 wrote: »

Skopzz this is becoming laughable, the term you used was "collapsed" which is what I replied to, no one suggested you said they had "dissappeared".

The bailout is due to domestic policies and global downturn and has absolutely nothing to do with our exports except for the fact that we would be in far worse trouble if exports were not strong (hint businesses would close and employment would rise further).

Maybe the CSO website and have a look at their statistics, the value of exports in Q3 of 2010 were worth €40 billion.

A great corker of a post, you must be clapping your hands at this by now. Hint: your spelling of the word disappeared.... You see. You did run your mouth before thinking.

My point I would like you to realize is that our exports simply don't offset our massive deficit and it would take many years to do so. The problem is that we do NOT have time on our hands now. We face bailout repayment due dates within approx 3-4 years time. If we are to rely on our exports to cover this, it would take over 6 years at least. Yes, they do help but not far enough.

davo10

Skopzz wrote: »

A great corker of a post, you must be clapping your hands at this by now. Hint: your spelling of the word disappeared.... You see. You did run your mouth before thinking.

My point I would like you to realize is that our exports simply don't offset our massive deficit and it would take many years to do so. The problem is that we do NOT have time on our hands now. We face bailout repayment due dates within approx 3-4 years time. If we are to rely on our exports to cover this, it would take over 6 years at least. Yes, they do help but not far enough.

Is that it? an extra "s" in a word is your retort?.

Exports alone are never going to offset our deficit, no one claimed they ever would, where did you get this from?

Skopzz

davo10 wrote: »

Is that it? an extra "s" in a word is your retort?.

Exports alone are never going to offset our deficit, no one claimed they ever would, where did you get this from?

Exactly, our debt can NOT be hidden by exports alone. Cheers right.

91011

Skopzz wrote: »

We blew it. We became preoccupied with a real estate bubble, exports collapsed.

Exports collasped??? - It was the only arae of our economy that continued to grow in the past few years and the primary reason why we'll be out of this hole quicker than spain & greece.

Skopzz wrote: »

Those aren't sustainable exports. .

Not sustainable? - Goodfellas has been in naas since they came on the market, Subway deal was inked a few months ago and is for 10 years. Aircraft seating yarn made in donegal, isn't made anywhere else. Baby formula - sorry, the world aint gonna stop having babies.:D - And the fact that sidenifil, the main ingredient in viagra is made in Cork, will obviously further help baby formula sales

You need to read more business publications before making comment on economic matters. Read up on annual reports, have a look at our major indigenious companies and look at the recent report that showed that Ireland still received far more share on FDI (foreign direct investment) last year than any other eu country.

Skopzz

91011 wrote: »

Not sustainable? - Goodfellas has been in naas since they came on the market, Subway deal was inked a few months ago and is for 10 years. Aircraft seating yarn made in donegal, isn't made anywhere else. Baby formula - sorry, the world aint gonna stop having babies.:D - And the fact that sidenifil, the main ingredient in viagra is made in Cork, will obviously further help baby formula sales

What was all that news about Pfizer closing a bulk of their Irish operations during recent times? Also restructuring and the shedding of jobs. And if that wasn't enough, the patent for Pfizer's Viagra will shortly expire, if it hasn't already. That means cheaper generic brand names from low cost countries. Ireland is not among those low cost countries. Hence we stand to loose, in the long term. The big issue is when the Eurozone harmonizes corporation taxes - that's when the chickens will come to roost for Ireland.

91011

Skopzz wrote: »

What was all that news about Pfizer closing a bulk of their Irish operations during recent times? Also restructuring and the shedding of jobs. And if that wasn't enough, the patent for Pfizer's Viagra will shortly expire, if it hasn't already. That means cheaper generic brand names from low cost countries. Ireland is not among those low cost countries. Hence we stand to loose, in the long term. The big issue is when the Eurozone harmonizes corporation taxes - that's when the chickens will come to roost for Ireland.

again you're showing a sever lack of knowledge of what you are talking about.
Pfizer bought Wyeth in 2009. There was some duplication of facilities and these were merged. It meant approx 600 jobs going from over 5000 employed in Ireland. 2 of the 3 facilities have been purchased by other companies, thus re-createing the jobs that were lost.
Overall, Pfizer cut 18% of the combined wyeth/pfizer workforce worldwide. In Ireland they cut just 11%. Nothing whatsoever to do with the local economy or products being lost.

Generic medicines do not affect primary brands as much as you think. - otherwise, Nurofen would be gone and solpadeine and any number of branded products. People trust brands especially in the medical field.

91011

btw Skopzz

Here's your comments from Last October.

"Bought at .8528" "It won't go much lower" "Buy now and save"

From then until 4 weeks after, the rate rose consistently and hit 89p and it was December before it dropped back a little below 85p and with the exception of a couple of dip days, its been hanging around a range of .846 to .865 since.

again, no thanks, I won't take currency advice from a nuig student

sandin

Skopzz wrote: »

GBP is falling against the EUR. As someone who follows the currency markets regularly, this may be the LAST time the EUR strengthens to this level or close against GBP. The U.K is poised to raise interest rates in the second quarter of 2011 which means the Pound would likely strengthen significantly against the Euro. Therefore, I recommend that all you bargain hunters closely follow the exchange rate if you plan to buy any GBP very soon. I recommend you buy a 'reserve' amount, particularly if you're a regular cross-border shopper. By buying a large amount, it can help cushion you from any possible strengthening of GBP against the EUR. I bought GBP600 back in October 2010 and I'm so glad I did given the rate soon turned against the Euro. The international exchange rate for GBP vs EUR is good right now.....

Some cross-border competition does no harm down here Especially when you compare your shopping bills.

Very glad I didn't heed your "advice". Since your post, sterling has continued to drop against the Euro and is a further 2c weaker against the Euro. Do you have any experience in currency markets or are you just a college student as suggested elsewhere?

jett

With all these experts we should soon be thriving.
Lets not forget that a team of Monkeys had better results on the stock market by picking companies at random. They beat the experts:D

ch750536

jett wrote: »

With all these experts we should soon be thriving.
Lets not forget that a team of Monkeys had better results on the stock market by picking companies at random. They beat the experts:D

Source?

Skopzz

ch750536 wrote: »

Source?

Don't bite the bait. I normally don't get hustled at replying to stupid posts like some of the above.

sandin

Sterling now at 88.1p / €1 and set to go towards 89p. But something in the news tomorrow can change all that.

as for the monkey query - its tells how throwing darts at a list of stocks can have the same success as market specialists. In 100 contests, the dart throwers have won 39% of the time and experts 61% of the time. Not a great result for experts! http://www.investorhome.com/darts.htm

Skopzz

Even better news for cross-border shoppers to vote with their feet!

But we should keep in mind that Portugal is now closer than ever to being bailed out, hence the British Pound (may) strengthen soon again. That's the constant problem the Euro faces - sovereign debt crises. I will be buying more GBP tomorrow at the current rate. I'm not going to wait in case GBP strengthens (and I think it will after the current news about Portugal). Their bond yields have hit record highs today.

sandin

Skopzz wrote: »

But we should keep in mind that Portugal is now closer than ever to being bailed out, hence the British Pound (may) strengthen soon again.

Portugal's situation is well priced into the market. The news that has driven the Euro up is that Spain probably won't need any help and interest rates in Euro Zone will start to increase from next month. UK interest rates may not increase as soon as was originally thought and not by as much also growth forecasts for UK are quite low. From being in London during February (yes a whole month of bad beer), prices are certainly a lot more expensive than they were a year ago (I'm there every year for a month!) and even at 88p, there probably would not be any savings to be had. The company I work for (Consumer goods) is continuing with a 1.15 exchange rate for its Irish customers which is the rate from 1st week of January. At 88p - they are 1% cheaper in UK, but at 86p, they will be 1% cheaper in Ireland.

Skopzz

I bought my Pounds yesterday, in case the Euro weakens next week with Portugal, etc. I bought GBP 200.00 at an exchange rate of GBP 0.86.

sandin

Skopzz wrote: »

I bought my Pounds yesterday, in case the Euro weakens next week with Portugal, etc. I bought GBP 200.00 at an exchange rate of GBP 0.86.

:D:D

Sorry, when I saw your original post, I really thought you bought in thousands. :D

The cost of fuel travelling from Galway (I'm guessing from other posts that you're from galway) would not just wipe your exchange rate out along with any "savings" on goods but also end up costing you a good 20% extra.

I hope you're not studying economics;)