Japanese earthquake / tsunami discussion

Mister men

ninja900 wrote: »

Nonsense. The plume was insignificant but that is no reason to remain in its path if you can easily move out of its path. Less paperwork if nothing else...

The slightest increase in radiation is easily detected with the instrumentation available to the US Navy (who, after all, expected to be fighting nuclear wars in radiation fields thousands of times stronger than what is now happening) and no doubt they have decontamination procedures which must be followed to the letter once the slightest increase above natural background radiation is detected.

In this case the helicopter crews were exposed to absolutely tiny amounts of contamination, which was easily eliminated by washing clothes and showering, but with a ship's company of several thousand on a big carrier, it makes far more sense to just move out of the way especially as they had no particular reason to remain in that spot - rather than have to put the entire ship under decontamination procedures even though the contamination was minimal.

I don't buy that at all. They where on their way to help the people of Japan and all of a sudden did a swift about turn when they neared the coastline due to the radiation. Surely if the amounts of radiation where insignificant they would be there helping out in any way they can.

Cathaoirleach

hmmm wrote: »

Even in Chernobyl, the number of immediate deaths was relatively low and limited to the first responders. The deaths from radiation poisoning afterwards are disputed and harder to quantify.

100's of thousands have been affected with thyroid cancer, deformaties, and general ill-health since Chernobyl.

search for: liquidator chernobyl cancer belarus thyroid

Mister men

Donal Og O Baelach wrote: »

The fear factor alone could be very dangerous. Tokyo has something like 13 million people.

32m actually including the vast suburbs. Tokyo evac would be a disaster and more than likely not possible.

Hotblack Desiato

gbee wrote: »

Last known readings. 0.4Sv = Mild radiation sickness, headaches risk of infection.

The figures which have been quoted are meaningless really as they specify a dose but not a dose rate. It's like asking what your electricity bill will be if your electric fire is 2kW, without knowing for how long the fire is turned on.

jamesbrond

Coles wrote: »

Particularly if you aren't capable of thinking for yourself.:rolleyes:

Let me guess. One of the "web educated" experts. :rolleyes:

Step right up. One-click education available. You choose which one.

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sugexp=ldymls&xhr=t&q=nuclear+disaster&cp=9&qe=bnVjbGVhciBk&qesig=bL4o8kz8drXxZVl-9hGf-A&pkc=AFgZ2tkW0fvq7zPdtGt5aekBNp-q6a80q7a6D9xv6hYvwNjoh_XeGo_M8BH6wHO_TO9jUqqMYRT03EZZqH-JfdascvKrB146Hw&pf=p&sclient=psy&site=&source=hp&aq=0z&aqi=&aql=&oq=nuclear+d&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=7e345e750bddbe4f

Mister men

Actually when is the last time anyone has seen a live stream of the nuclear plant? Seems strange all of a sudden no pictures coming back from there

jamesbrond

Mister men wrote: »

Actually when is the last time anyone has seen a live stream of the nuclear plant? Seems strange all of a sudden no pictures coming back from there

Why? did they show live streams of it when it was dark before? Could you see much?

3ndahalfof6

Mister men wrote: »

Actually when is the last time anyone has seen a live stream of the nuclear plant? Seems strange all of a sudden no pictures coming back from there

would it not be down to the exclusion zone

andrew

jamesbrond wrote: »

Let me guess. One of the "web educated" experts. :rolleyes:

Step right up. One-click education available. You choose which one.

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sugexp=ldymls&xhr=t&q=nuclear+disaster&cp=9&qe=bnVjbGVhciBk&qesig=bL4o8kz8drXxZVl-9hGf-A&pkc=AFgZ2tkW0fvq7zPdtGt5aekBNp-q6a80q7a6D9xv6hYvwNjoh_XeGo_M8BH6wHO_TO9jUqqMYRT03EZZqH-JfdascvKrB146Hw&pf=p&sclient=psy&site=&source=hp&aq=0z&aqi=&aql=&oq=nuclear+d&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=7e345e750bddbe4f

Yeah, how dare people use the internet in order to educate themselves about something. I mean, it's not like they're capable of critical thinking or anything.And all the information available online, it's all written by people who don't know what they're talking about. All of it.

Look, noone here's claiming to be an expert. And I don't doubt that a lot of people don't know what they're talking about (and it's possible I'm one of those people). All people have been doing is using information which they already have, and combining that with stuff they've learned and already know. This is as a supplement to the information coming from the news, and in a broad sense it's a useful supplement, so long as it's taken with the pinch of salt it deserves.

maquiladora

Mister men wrote: »

Actually when is the last time anyone has seen a live stream of the nuclear plant? Seems strange all of a sudden no pictures coming back from there

Exclusion zone, so no camera crews on the ground & there is a no fly zone now too, so no helicopter shots.

Hotblack Desiato

Dempsey wrote: »

The half life of 239Pu is 24,200 years & 240Pu is 6563 years :eek:

This is a very common misconception. The longer the half-life of a sample, the less radiation it will emit in a given period of time. Plutonium is dangerous biologically but that's not because of its relatively long half-life, it's because if breathed in in the form of small particles (unlikely in this scenario) it cannot escape the lungs, and if ingested the body stores it in bone.

If you ever have a nuclear medicine scan done, that will be with a quite short-lived (short half-life) isotope. So the radiation is emitted within a useful length of time (i.e. when they want to do the scan) rather than over months or years. It would also be a substance which doesn't accumulate in the body and will be excreted fairly rapidly.

1ug of plutonium is enough to kill a person AFAIK, was watching a video on Chernobyl earlier and thats what an expert said

And in theory a jar of ricin poison you could hold in your hands could kill the entire population of Earth. In theory. This sort of scaremongering is all but useless when looking at what really happens when a hazardous substance is released into the environment, but is great for headlines.

Thrill

jamesbrond wrote: »

Why? did they show live streams of it when it was dark before? Could you see much?

Perhaps if you clicked a few links you'd learn that its daytime in japan.

Coles

jamesbrond wrote: »

Let me guess. One of the "web educated" experts. :rolleyes:

Step right up. One-click education available. You choose which one.

You're pretty new to this internet thing, aren't you?

Topper Harley01

TEPCO says it is considering dumping boric acid onto reactor 4 from a helicopter.

Dempsey

ninja900 wrote: »

This is a very common misconception. The longer the half-life of a sample, the less radiation it will emit in a given period of time. Plutonium is dangerous biologically but that's not because of its relatively long half-life, it's because if breathed in in the form of small particles (unlikely in this scenario) it cannot escape the lungs, and if ingested the body stores it in bone.

If you even have a nuclear medicine scan done, that will be with a quite short-lived (short half-live) isotope. So the radiation is emitted within a useful length of time (i.e. when they want to do the scan) rather than over months or years. It would also be a substance which doesn't accumulate in the body and will be excreted fairly rapidly.

And in theory a jar of ricin poison you could hold in your hands could kill the entire population of Earth. In theory. This sort of scaremongering is all but useless when looking at what really happens when a hazardous substance is released into the environment, but is great for headlines.

So 239Pu & 240Pu are still health hazards?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwWID6WjeEU#t=7m56s

So this man is scaremongering?

th3 s1aught3r

uncleoswald wrote: »

Strangely I feel the opposite watching all this unfold. I had presumed that after all the hits the plants have taken that we'd be seeing mushroom clouds over Japan by now. Wonderful work by all the engineers who designed and built it and the workers fighting to keep everything under control at the moment.

But how do you know that everything is under control

The Shtig

I've found this thread very helpful and gave me a better understanding of what's going on. I don't see how people are being 'know it alls'.

How can you trust some news sources when there are examples like the sun's front page posted above, it's complete scare mongering. This thread did the opposite, I remember two days ago Overheal and other posters giving very good info and showing there was no need for the hysteria at the time and it was very reassuring. They have been providing reputable links as well showing it's not just them speculating.

Hotblack Desiato

Mister men wrote: »

I don't buy that at all. They where on their way to help the people of Japan and all of a sudden did a swift about turn when they neared the coastline due to the radiation. Surely if the amounts of radiation where insignificant they would be there helping out in any way they can.

The function in peacetime of sending a carrier group anywhere is political, not military or humanitarian.

Let the US be seen to be doing something, even if the assistance they can offer to a civilian population in this scenario is little or nothing.

I doubt the population of north-east Japan would have been thinking along the lines of "what we need right now is a few squadrons of F/A-18 Super Hornets offshore"

Mister men

jamesbrond wrote: »

Why? did they show live streams of it when it was dark before? Could you see much?

It's day time in Japan now.

Overheal

uncleoswald wrote: »

Strangely I feel the opposite watching all this unfold. I had presumed that after all the hits the plants have taken that we'd be seeing mushroom clouds over Japan by now. Wonderful work by all the engineers who designed and built it and the workers fighting to keep everything under control at the moment.

Don't mean to burst that bubble but the reason you feel like that is primarily due to not knowing that nuclear reactors are incapable of reaching Critical Mass, and as a result are incapable of nuclear detonation.

As for the engineers they tried, they did, but things are going to hell slow and gradually over there it seems.

th3 s1aught3r

peasant wrote: »

Yippee ... state sponsored liars to be replaced by liars sponsored by the nuclear industry :rolleyes:

I'd say at this stage it's fair to assume the worst and be glad you're not anywhere near Japan

How can anyone trust what the 'Official' line is anyway
I think this radiation leak is much much worse than we are being told

Overheal

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

How can anyone trust what the 'Official' line is anyway
I think this radiation leak is much much worse than we are being told

I think they are reporting real numbers. It would be a damaging lie to undertake if several sources discovered the readings by TEPCO were below what 3rd parties were detecting. I'd attribute the low numbers (compared to Chernobyl) down to better shielding. The recorded levels for Chernobyl are, huge. But that also takes into account the reactor vessels basically burned through themselves, some of the key components being made of Graphite which burned up once they were exposed to air. In this case the reactors have been exposed to air several times and havent resulted in runaway fires as of yet.

dreamer_ire

The Shtig wrote: »

I've found this thread very helpful and gave me a better understanding of what's going on. I don't see how people are being 'know it alls'.

How can you trust some news sources when there are examples like the sun's front page posted above, it's complete scare mongering. This thread did the opposite, I remember two days ago Overheal and other posters giving very good info and showing there was no need for the hysteria at the time and it was very reassuring. They have been providing reputable links as well showing it's not just them speculating.

+1 Couldn't agree more, Overheal in particular and one or two other posters are what I scan this thread for when I get in from work each evening.

Turtwig

dreamer_ire wrote: »

A friend of mine does a lot of work with an orphanage in Belarus and the effects on children she has seen born long after the Chernobyl disaster is shocking. The first time I met a number of the kids (in Co. Clare on a respite visit) I volunteered to go back the following year. Then she told me that none of the kids I had just met would be still alive the following year because they all had advanced thyroid cancer, believed to be as a result of Chernobyl. But I take your point that the numbers start to blur and depending on the agenda of the "estimators" it can vary hugely.

The reason why estimating death and cases linked to Chernobyl is difficult is because if the dosage of radiation is low then the chances of an onset of illness due to the radiation exposure is also low. As a rule of thumb 1 Sv exposure will only increase your risk your of cancer by 5%. So here's the kicker if someone who has been exposed to a radiation dosage of 1 Sv develops cancer is that cancer because of the radiation or would they have got it spontaneously anyway? Then it gets worse again, is there any chance this illness may have been caused by any other hazardous material.

Obviously some agencies will have agenda's. Pro nuclear proponents have argued that only 1,000 deaths were due to Chernobyl. Alarmists go as high as 11,000. The real figure is probably around the 4,000 mark but no one knows for sure because screening out illnesses caused by radiation from background illnesses is notoriously difficult. I haven't read that much about studies from Chernobyl* but the one's from Hiroshima and Nagasaki do provide some interesting data. The general trend is that if you take city inhabitants who survived the original A-Bomb blasts from 1950-2000 and compare them with inhabitants of other major Japanese cities you will see that .4% more of people from the radiation stricken zones died of cancer.


*because the ones I have read make my blood boil. I've mentioned it a few times in this thread but folks really ought to read up on how much of a sh1t piece of design, cover up and subterfuge that plant was. Tepco are gonna get fried for their oversight of placing the Emergency Generators of the Fukushima Daiichi at sea level. But their original plant design which was designed and built before Chernobyl was way more robust. Chernobyl was very much all about making fuel for as cheap as possible.)

andrew

Dempsey wrote: »

So 239Pu & 240Pu are still health hazards?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwWID6WjeEU#t=7m56s

So this man is scaremongering?

As the post which you quoted notes, Plutonium is most dangerous when it's in a form which can be breathed in. In Chernobyl, the solidifed form which the Pu has taken would be turned to dust by a collapse of the sarcophagus, making it breathable and hence very dangerous. So no, that video isn't scaremongering in the sense that the threat it says exists does actually exist. Though saying there's enough Pu there to kill 100 million people is a bit silly. Maybe if you systematically exposed 100 million people to the entire amount Pu that's there yes, but only then.

Whahey!

Radiation levels are slowly rising.

jamesbrond

andrew wrote: »

Yeah, how dare people use the internet in order to educate themselves about something. I mean, it's not like they're capable of critical thinking or anything.And all the information available online, it's all written by people who don't know what they're talking about. All of it.

Look, noone here's claiming to be an expert. And I don't doubt that a lot of people don't know what they're talking about (and it's possible I'm one of those people). All people have been doing is using information which they already have, and combining that with stuff they've learned and already know. This is as a supplement to the information coming from the news, and in a broad sense it's a useful supplement, so long as it's taken with the pinch of salt it deserves.

There is educating yourself and there is reading any old link and then repeating it as gospel that you somehow know to be true.

Unless you are reading a different thread to the one im reading, its full to the brim of armchair experts.

daelight

Whahey! wrote: »

Radiation levels are slowly rising.

It approx 30cpm in Tokyo right now. Take a flight and at 35,000 ft you will be in an 350 cpm environment.

uncleoswald

Overheal wrote: »

Don't mean to burst that bubble but the reason you feel like that is primarily due to not knowing that nuclear reactors are incapable of reaching Critical Mass, and as a result are incapable of nuclear detonation.

As for the engineers they tried, they did, but things are going to hell slow and gradually over there it seems.

With all due respect, what I don't know about nuclear reactors could fill a book entitled "I Know F*ck All About Nuclear Reactors." And it would be a rubbish, badly written book as well.

All I was saying is that I have NO IDEA how this is going to play out, but if the worst case scenarios of all the more negative posters here does in fact happen, I will be left surprised that it didn't happen days ago because, as I said, I didn't think these reactors would have so many safe-guards. I'm surprised such a simple opinion caused so much confusion.

jackiebaron

Now compare what the Japanese did in 5 days to the "Number 1 Nation on Earth" who still haven't cleaned up the Gulf, who still haven't rebuilt so much as a park-bench in Manhattan South after nearly 10 years and who still mope about New Orleans, parts of which still look like a scene from Mad Max, 5 years later.