Japanese earthquake / tsunami discussion

oppenheimer1

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Says the guy who is named after the "father of the atom bomb" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Robert_Oppenheimer

What is unnerving me most about this is that nuclear experts (I mean people with postgraduate degrees!) seem to be split between whether the seriousness of the situation.

Nuclear experts are split on the seriousness of the accident because they do not have access to all the facts. The only ones that do are the Japanese government and Tepco.

What is annoying in this thread is that they are passing speculation, both their own and those of experts on tv as fact. The facts of the situation are not clear therefore the implications are impossible to know. News organisations will hype bad news to the very last and should be taken with a large dose of salt.

Whahey!

Is there much of a chance that they'll be hit with another strong quake still or have those predictions fizzled out now?

Chad ghostal

for what it's worth, an expert speaking at the British Embassy:

http://ukinjapan.fco.gov.uk/en/news/?view=News&id=566799182

if someone is going to say this guy is just talking bull or whatever, please back it up. I can't see any reason why he would speak falsely, although I am keeping in mind, he is talking about the situation without being on the ground.

andrew

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Nuclear experts are split on the seriousness of the accident because they do not have access to all the facts. The only ones that do are the Japanese government and Tepco.

What is annoying in this thread is that they are passing speculation, both their own and those of experts on tv as fact. The facts of the situation are not clear therefore the implications are impossible to know. News organisations will hype bad news to the very last and should be taken with a large dose of salt.

This is an internet message board. Anyone who takes anything written by someone here without a pinch of salt is a fool. It's clear that everyone here is at best an 'armchair expert,' so I don't see what the problem is.

dolphin city

Thrill wrote: »

I dont think anyone has claimed to be one in fairness.

there's one in the other thread - the one called "heroism in nuclear ....." but he's been quiet all morning - I think he may have flown over to tell the japanese what to do.

drdeadlift

kona wrote: »

My brother is doing Theoretical Physics, I linked him to some of the posts here, he laughed.

Whats his favorite stand up comedian ??

jackiebaron

Tristram wrote: »

It was PM Naoto Kan. Japan has no president.

Oh, I thought it was the TEPCO president

maquiladora

* NEWS ADVISORY: Water cannon vehicle arrives at Fukushima No. 1 plant to cool No. 4 reactor (00:17)

* NEWS ADVISORY: Russia to evacuate diplomatic families from Japan from Friday (00:12)

Rob A. Bank

1525: The EU's energy chief Guenther Oettinger has said that in the coming hours "there could be further catastrophic events, which could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island". He told the European Parliament the Fukushima nuclear site was "effectively out of control". "The cooling systems did not work, and as a result we are somewhere between a disaster and a major disaster."

whatstherush

maquiladora wrote: »

* NEWS ADVISORY: Water cannon vehicle arrives at Fukushima No. 1 plant to cool No. 4 reactor (00:17)

The Spent Fuel Pools seem the most worrying thing to me. If they catch fire, all that click click is going straight up into the air. I may be wrong but I think that was the major problem with Chernobyl, the graphite fire spread the contamination over a huge area. All so there is speculation that SFP in reactor 4 didn't contain spent rods, but actual fuel rods from reactor 4, that were stored there while it was under maintenance.

iguana

Saadyst wrote: »

One chest CT scan generates 6900 micro sievert per scan.

Yeah but getting a scan only lasts a few seconds. If it's true that levels are so high 20km from the plant then that's like getting a scan which is continuously ongoing for hours, maybe days. That is dangerous. Most certainly for those in gestation because even a few seconds of an X-Ray carries reasonably grave risk for the unborn.

maquiladora

I really feel for the 50 or so workers and others who are trying their best at the plant at the moment.

Especially after reading this...

On Tuesday, Japan's Health Ministry said it was raising the legal limit on the amount of radiation to which each worker could be exposed, to 250 millisieverts from 100 millisieverts, five times the maximum exposure permitted for American nuclear plant workers, The New York Times reported.

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/03/16/16climatewire-radiation-levels-spike-forcing-temporary-ret-87245.html

ectoraige

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Interesting post which suggests they basically decided to let the reactors go when they reduced the workers to 50...

"It's obvious the situation in Japan is dire, "750 people that are being evacuated were doing critical work. They weren’t sweeping floors and washing windows; they were doing critical work. So, when the staff, basically, is cut—90 percent of the staff is told, "You have to leave the site"—that’s an indication that a lot of critical work isn’t getting done.

I really think it’s also—it’s an indication that management at the site has thrown in the towel and is going to let this thing run its course without any more human intervention. You can’t have 60 people on a six-unit site and expect that anything gets done."

The single most important resource TEPCO have to handle the situation are their experienced staff who know the site and drills intimately. Even in the best circumstances, the cooling operation will have to continue for weeks, so teams will have to work in extended shifts.

They had almost 800 staff on-site whose goal was to prevent a serious radiation leak by restoring cooling. They managed to do this until yesterday when the third explosion occured. This damaged the No. 2 suppression pool and resulted in a radiation leak serious enough to endanger lives. Up until this point the radiation leaks were relatively inconsequential. Once the radiation levels became a threat to the staff, the nature of the operation had to change.

While they can draft in extra volunteers, they will still need experienced people familiar with the operations of the plant. It is prudent to conserve their staff resource as much as possible as they may end up having to operate very short shifts. It could happen that shifts end up been composted mostly of non-TEPCO workers led by a few experienced staff from the plant.

They chose not to leave all their eggs in one basket. Without being on the ground, it's hard to know if 10, 50, 100, or 500 staff is the right amount to sustain a prolonged situation.

Rob A. Bank

maquiladora wrote: »

* NEWS ADVISORY: Water cannon vehicle arrives at Fukushima No. 1 plant to cool No. 4 reactor (00:17)

I hope and pray that that will work, they just have to find a method to cool and cover the fuel rods in water soon.

Im surprised they have not tried robots, now that its too dangerous for humans to approach the reactors. The Japanese seem to be quite advanced in the technology of robotics.

opinion guy

iguana wrote: »

Yeah but getting a scan only lasts a few seconds. If it's true that levels are so high 20km from the plant then that's like getting a scan which is continuously ongoing for hours, maybe days. That is dangerous. Most certainly for those in gestation because even a few seconds of an X-Ray carries reasonably grave risk for the unborn.

I haven't seen any reports that levels are consistently high. Only spikes. Thats why the staff are moving in and out of the plant.

Rob A. Bank

Saadyst wrote: »

One chest CT scan generates 6900 micro sievert per scan.

Do you need to be decontaminated after a CT scan ?

(and no need to shout like that)

maquiladora

opinion guy wrote: »

I haven't seen any reports that levels are consistently high. Only spikes. Thats why the staff are moving in and out of the plant.

Yeah the last I heard is that they can spend about 10 mins in the control rooms but no longer. That was yesterday or Monday though, situation is changing all the time there.

Overheal

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Do you need to be decontaminated after a CT scan ?

No. Theres a difference between radiation and radioactive particles.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fallout

This page gives some examples of typical exposures and is being updated with actual Fukushima record levels, making it a handy page to hang onto:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert

maquiladora

U.S. to fly spy plane over Fukushima nuclear plant for closer look

TOKYO, March 17, Kyodo

The U.S. military will operate a Global Hawk unmanned high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft over a stricken nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture, possibly on Thursday, to take a closer look at its troubled reactors, a Japanese government source said Wednesday.

Photographs taken by the plane equipped with infrared sensors could provide a useful clue to what is occurring inside the reactor buildings, around which high-level radiation has been detected.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78680.html

andrew

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

I hope and pray that that will work, they just have to find a method to cool and cover the fuel rods in water soon.

Im surprised they have not tried robots, now that its too dangerous for humans to approach the reactors. The Japanese seem to be quite advanced in the technology of robotics.

Too bad all it seems their robots can do is walk up stairs and hoover floors

Rob A. Bank

1545: The Pentagon has announced that US forces must stay 50 miles (80km) away from the Fukushima reactor unless they have specific authorisation, Reuters reports.

maquiladora

IAEA head says situation at Japan's Daiichi nuclear power plant is very serious - Reuters

Breaking News: IAEA head says core damage at units 1-3 of quake-hit plant confirmed. - CNN

iguana

opinion guy wrote: »

I haven't seen any reports that levels are consistently high. Only spikes. Thats why the staff are moving in and out of the plant.

Even so spikes of this level present very real risk to fetuses in certain stages of development, mainly the first 20 weeks. Either of birth defect or miscarriage.

This is from a website on the risk of X-Ray and the levels talked about are all much lower than those being read in Japan.

# In the first two weeks postconception or the second two weeks from the last menstrual period, the embryo is very resistant to the malforming effects of x rays. The embryo is, however, sensitive to the lethal effects of x rays, although doses much higher than 5 rad or 50 mSv are necessary to cause a miscarriage.

# From the third to the eighth week of pregnancy, the embryo is in the period of early embryonic development but is not affected with either birth defects, pregnancy loss, or growth retardation unless the exposure is substantially above the 20 rad (200 mSv) exposure.

# From the eighth to the fifteenth week of pregnancy, the embryo or fetus is sensitive to the effects of radiation on the central nervous system. But here again, the exposure has to be very high. The threshold has been estimated to be higher than 30 rad (300 mSv) before an effect can be seen on the IQ of the developing embryo. General diagnostic studies do not reach these levels and, therefore, these effects are rarely of concern for patients.

# Beyond the 20th week of pregnancy, when the fetus is completely developed, it has become more resistant to the developmental effects of radiation. In fact, the fetus is probably no more vulnerable to many of the effects of radiation than the mother in the latter part of pregnancy. But the most important thing is that practically none of the diagnostic radiological procedures will affect an embryo at this late stage of pregnancy and certainly there is no risk for birth defects or miscarriage from the range of exposures that occur from diagnostic studies.

http://www.hps.org/hpspublications/articles/pregnancyandradiationexposureinfosheet.html

Thrill

I read this yesterday but have seen no update on it since...........

GE to send power generators to Japan
The US-based General Electric Company (GE), will send 10 gas turbine generators to Japan to help replace power generating capacity lost when nuclear reactors were damaged in Friday's mega-quake. GE said on Tuesday it was sending the generators on request from Tokyo Electric Power Company, which is struggling with a nuclear crisis at its Daiichi plant in Fukushima Prefecture. GE manufactured 2 of the plant's 6 reactors. GE said 3 of the 10 gas turbine generators have been moved to Florida ahead of being flown to Japan. The company said it is also offering technological assistance to Japan through a joint venture set up with Japanese electronics-maker Hitachi.

Also......

Kyodo is reporting new plumes of smoke coming from the Fukushima building housing reactor three.

maquiladora

iguana wrote: »

Even so spikes of this level present very real risk to fetuses in certain stages of development, mainly the first 20 weeks. Either of birth defect or miscarriage.

Would this be the reasoning behind Finland asking families with young children in the Tokyo area to go to Japan's south or consider leaving?

Rob A. Bank

Overheal wrote: »

No. Theres a difference between radiation and radioactive particles.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fallout

I know that... I was being sarcastic to someone who has the unshakeable belief that the worst is over, and that the worst is no worse than reported by Japanese authorities.

This page gives some examples of typical exposures and is being updated with actual Fukushima record levels, making it a handy page to hang onto:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert

The trouble is we dont know (in the vast majority of Japanese reports) where the detectors are sited. A lot of them seem to be from the gate which is over 1km upwind from the reactors.

I imagine all those explosions damaged a lot of the sensors closer to the reactors.

Its good to see that the Yanks seem to be getting a handle on the situation by deploying their considerable military capabilities.

maquiladora

Thrill wrote: »

Kyodo is reporting new plumes of smoke coming from the Fukushima building housing reactor three.

Think thats since been confirmed now as steam from the spent fuel pool in No.3 rather than smoke.

ectoraige

iguana wrote: »

Yeah but getting a scan only lasts a few seconds. If it's true that levels are so high 20km from the plant then that's like getting a scan which is continuously ongoing for hours, maybe days. That is dangerous. Most certainly for those in gestation because even a few seconds of an X-Ray carries reasonably grave risk for the unborn.

Chinese whispers? Japanese whispers?

First somebody quoted a report the authorities had detected "195 to 330 microsieverts per hour in the Fukushima Prefecture town of Namie in radiation monitoring activities for about 10 minutes from 8:40 p.m. Tuesday (11:40 a.m. GMT)", presenting this as dangerously high.

The citation of 6900μSv for a single chest CT was then made to illustrate that 195-330 per hour isn't a grave danger.

Now it's being construed that the levels detected are 6900μSv/"few seconds" - so what's that, over a million micro Siev per hour?

There longer this drags out, the lower the thought/speech ratio seems to get.

iguana

maquiladora wrote: »

Would this be the reasoning behind Finland asking families with young children in the Tokyo area to go to Japan's south or consider leaving?

I don't know. Are children generally more susceptible to the effects of radiation than adults? The bullet points I quoted suggest that at 20 weeks gestation a fetus is no more at risk than the mother from the X-ray.

I'm also unsure of the risk at these levels to the ovaries of all women and girls of child-bearing age and below. But that's only because I don't know why I've always had to wear a radiation shield across my reproductive area whenever I've had an X-Ray, even when I couldn't possibly have been pregnant. I don't know if it's "just-in-case" precautionary or "there-is-some-risk" precautionary.

maquiladora

IAEA chief to head to Japan to face nuclear crisis

VIENNA, March 16 | Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:11pm EDT

VIENNA, March 16 (Reuters) - Developments at a damaged nuclear reactor in Japan are "very serious", the U.N. nuclear watchdog chief said on Wednesday as he prepared to head to the country to assess the situation.

Yukiya Amano said he hoped to fly to Japan on Thursday for a one-day trip and needed more information from authorities there.

"The situation ... is very serious," Amano, a Japanese national, told a news conference, saying damage to the core of three units at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor had been confirmed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/16/japan-nuclear-iaea-trip-idUSWEA902620110316