Pyro's Cheltenham 2011 Log

x PyRo

cullen5998 wrote: »

Why all the big prices Pyro?
Do you not back the form horses who are smaller prices?

Because they're the ones I fancy. I'm not taking short prices about horses with form in races where certain form is pretty much useless. It can backfire obviously but if I get one right, there's a fair chance I'll be happy out on the day. I just didn't fancy any of the shorter priced animals today.

Super-Rush

JohnnyRyan99 wrote: »

Backed King Fon with PP and they were playing out 5 places... Nice! Cheers Pyro!

Same as.

Nice one xp.

Dravokivich

ya.. paddy seems to be the bookie to go with... deals always try to promote the punter more.

x PyRo

Some performance by Hurricane Fly. Class altogether.

It was run perfectly for Dunguib and he jumped brilliantly. Traveled very well but I'd imagine the ground took its toll. Wouldn't of been good enough anyways. Gutted.

Roll on tomorrow!

UrbanSea

Ah not so quick. Still have some hopes for the rest of the day anyway.

YohanCabeye7

4th. close, great pick.

fkiely

YohanCabeye7 wrote: »

Place at 40/1 ..good man 3rd or 4th

Just missed out on a place unless I'm mistaken.

YohanCabeye7

fkiely wrote: »

Just missed out on a place unless I'm mistaken.

Sorry, fck, thought it was a massive field

parasite

arghh, bet on alasi at 54/1 e/w, just plucked it randomly from here, painful

x PyRo

I am cursed beyond belief.

Dunraven Storm runs was below his abilities and pulls up.

King Fontaine comes 5th, a few bookies go 5 places, I backed him when bookies were only offering 4.

Dunguib jumps and travels like a dream, gets hampered 3 out, his race is over.

One Cool Cookie runs out, probably got spooked. Daft.

Alasi looks nailed for a place a two out, running a cracker but gets chinned to come 4th, one out of the places.

I'm the ultimate jinx for a horses chances.

God help American Trilogy! Won't win anyways as they're punting the life out of Difinity.

Apologies to anyone who lost money based on what I said. I'll do my best to get some winners tomorrow.

alscrxangels

Hey I know that cursed feeling. Nothing happening for me today.

But if 1 or 2 of them do click we'll be happy campers. At least this way everybody is grounded by loses on the first day.

Bring on tomorrow and fresh start.

UnknownSpecies

I am jinxed when it comes to this, probably my fault none pulled through :P

thesandeman

Thought Alasi would make the place but was eased up (no problem with that. Prefer it to beating the crap out of the horse).
My Xcountry record just about stays intact. Anyone know if L'ami was ok after?
Back on topic: Hit Us Pyro B-)

agentgreen

Thanks a mill for King Fontaine. You are a fantastic asset.

x PyRo

Not sure if you're serious given how the others ran! Hopefully there'll be some winners soon. I'm just going through a poor time of it and itching for the flat to return, along with normality.

(1:30 Cheltenham - National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup)

I'm backing 3 nice priced animals in this race, because they're all overpriced in my opinion and this race throws up some nice priced winners, with many of the market principles failing to live up to their price tag.

The first of my selections is Majory Malarkey. He has plenty to find on official ratings with some of these but has a cracking engine, gallops all day and still has a lot more potential improvement to come over fences. He's from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard, who won this race in '09 with Tricky Trickster, a talented animal who took a similar path to todays runner and won the same race at Newbury that MM also won. He pulled up in a Grade 3 Grand National Trial at Haydock last time out but would of completed if it was for being badly hampered. He was deemed good enough to go off as an 8/1 shot that day, and I think he's severely overpriced at 25/1 here. The heavy ground LTO was his undoing and with a sounder surface here, I reckon he'll relish it combined with the step up in trip. His yard boast a good record around here, the course should suit and everything suggests this lightly raced chaser could get involved at the business end of proceedings. Medium sized each-way stakes for me.

Donal McCain's Chamirey is the next one of interest. He's similarly lightly raced over fences, loves a marathon trip and put in a useful performance when sent off even money favourite at Newcastle on heavy ground last time out. It was a "name the distance" job for him that day, with the official winning margin being 37l but he was heavily eased in a poor 4 runner race. He's a better horse on good ground and is untested at this sort of trip, but should stay. His yard are in good knick and he has previous festival form, finishing a game 3rd in the Pretemps Final over hurdles last year. He's not a brilliant jumper by any means but still could improve in that department and knowing his trainer, he'll have done a fair bit at home. He's race fit having run 4 times this season and that should come in handy in a race where horses with recent runs do well and I expect a decent performance if he can put it all together. He's dangerously priced at 18/1 and worth smallish each-way stakes.

The very, very, very lightly raced On His Own is the other who caught my eye. He was bought for £240,000 after winning Point and Bumper at the back end of 2009 but hasn't lived up to the price-tag yet. He's trained by Howard Johnson and had his first run for that yard in last years Champion Bumper, finishing a well beaten 18th of 24. He was then off until January, where he came back to run over hurdles for the first time, finishing 4th of 15 in a decent race, shaping as if in need of the run. Two weeks later he was thrown into a 3 mile chase, in which he won having been sent off the 4/9 favourite. He beat a decent horse that day, jumped well in the main and coped well with having to set his own pace. His next and last run was in a Grade 2 contest over 3m 1f at Wetherby, where he finished a modest 4th of 5 behind Wayward Prince. He didn't run too well that day and got outpaced easily enough but is still only a baby in this game. He's held in high regard by connections and while this could well be a step too far, the 40/1 price is much too big. He has a good amateur rider on board who has a good record here and I think he could run into a place if all went well. He's also bred to be a dour stayer and this test could be right down his alley, whether it's too soon is up for debate but at the price, it's worth a go.

Major Malarkey - 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)
Chamirey - 1.5pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)
On His Own - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (StanJames)

Tri-cast? :pac:

jive

I picked out Major Malarkey myself.... i don't know whether to be happy that you chose the same one (as you know A LOT more about racing than me) or to be sad because you may now have jinx'd it :P

x PyRo

It'll more than likely be the latter! He does fit the bill as a potential shock winner. Who knows with Cheltenham though.

jive

Cheltenham can be a bit random alright... suits backing the outsiders though i guess!

x PyRo

Just found out that Dunraven Storm weakened so quickly because he was lame. More proof of my being a jinx!

(Neptune Novices Hurdle)

2:05 Cheltenham - Minella Class - 2.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (WillHill)

I reckon this is an absolutely cracking price for this horse, who has lots of class and only has one blemish on the card after 3 runs for this yard. Nicky Henderson has a terrible 0 from 21 in this race, but I think that he can over come that with Minella Class, who lives up to his name, and is pure class. He was a decent sort in Ireland, winning a bumper before joining this yard in the Spring. He opened up his account in a 22 runner Maiden Hurdle at Newbury on good ground over 2 miles, showing a nice turn of foot to put the race beyond doubt in a couple of strides. He's bound to make a cracking chaser in time but jumps his hurdles brilliantly, travels like a dream and has a bit of toe to boot. His second run for the yard came in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, where he ran out a very impressive 7 length winner on very testing Heavy ground. He came up the steep Sandown hill in good fashion on that ground and showed that he was most certainly a horse for the future. He lined out 6 weeks later, on what was his most recent start. It was another 5 runner race and not as competitive as his previous run but he could only manage a 3 length 2nd to the game Aikman, who was in receipt of 8lbs (run off levels here). The ground was very testing that day and Minella Class was reported to have come back injured. It was still a very good run in the circumstances, as it was his first time tackling 2m 5f and on a speed course. He just couldn't catch the winner having made some jumping mistakes but I think we'll see a different animal on better ground at a track that is likely to be ideal.

Minella Class is 2 from 2 on left-handed tracks, gallops and stays all day, so Cheltenham could be ideal for him. It's interesting that Henderson is running him here, as he could of run the impressive Bob's Worth either, but sends him to the 3 mile novices' hurdle instead. It could be either a statement of intent, that this horse is better fancied for this race, or that the other horse is better suited to the 3m race but Henderson said that the latter's best trip was 2 and a half, so I find it odd that he's running Minella Class here instead. I can never figure out Henderson though so only he knows what the reason behind it is. The field of 12 will suit the horse a lot more than these 5 runner muddling races and with a good pace very likely, I think he could be staying on as well as anything going up the hill. He got 3 mile on Heavy ground in a PTP, where he finished 2 lengths behind none other than Al Ferof. Geraghty rated him highly and given that he has only run 3 times for this yard, it's pretty assured that there's a lot more to come yet. I'm not gone on the mud loving Irish runners and I can't weight up the form too much so I'm opposing them all. Irish runners have a fine record in this race though, so they're obviously in with solid claims but I think that Henderson can finally crack the code in this race with the classy Minella Class, before going on to win a big one over fences at some stage in the future. Big each way bet for me, as I think he's bound to place and should give it a very good account of himself.

x PyRo

(RSA Chase)

2:40 Cheltenham - Mikael D'haguenet - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (Boylesports)

I don't particularly like this horse, nor do I have much of a reason not to like him but I get a funny feeling that he'll run an absolute cracker here, if he doesn't capsize. Mikael D'haguenet was an outstanding novice hurdler, landing 5 Graded races, 3 Grade 1's, including the Ballymore over 2m 5f at this course in '09. He then got injured but returned after 18 months off to compete in the Grade 1 Drinmore over 2 and a half miles at Fairyhouse in December. He looked all set to make a brilliant start to his chasing career, but came unstuck at the last and fell over, when appearing to travel best and likely to go on to win. However, on the trends, the winner of that race doesn't go on to win this, so it may prove to be no bad thing (Record - 2UF). He was quickly turned out 2 weeks later to contest another Grade 1 Novices' Chase, but jumped poorly and never really traveled on the very testing ground, eventually finishing a remote 5th of 8. He was off for a further 6 weeks before making his next and most recent appearance, in another race of the same standing. He jumped safely but wasn't overly impressive and could only manage to come 3rd over the 2m 5f trip. However, that doesn't tell the full story as he was once again traveling well 2 out, but ended up being hampered by his falling stablemate Quel Esprit. That forced him to come off the bridle and he found next to nothing before making a mistake at the last. The last 2 winners of this race ran in that one, finishing in 1st & 2nd, whilst Mikael D'haguenet finished in 3rd, and could potentially add to the sequence here, not that it has any real meaning though!

He's reunited with Ruby Walsh, who is 4 from 4 on board this fellow and a positive to any horse, especially in his current vein of form. So if anyone is able to unlock the door for Mikael D'haguenet, it's bound to be Ruby. Willie Mullins (2 wins, 2 places, 8 runners) has done extremely well in this race recently, winning it in ’98, ’04 and ’09 and filling the runners-up spot in ’00 and ’07. His 4 unplaced runners all fell when still in with a chance. The omens are quite good for this potential star and if he sees out this longer 3 mile trip on quicker ground than he's used to (should be okay), then I think that the hot favourite, Time For Rupert, could taste defeat over fences for the first time in his 2 race career, with a lack of a run this calendar year being a big worry. There's a few more in with lively each-way chances but I think Willie Mullins can enhance his very decent record in this race and pick up a place at least with Mikael D'haguenet, who is sure to be better than what he has shown to date. 10/1 looks quite generous to me and he's worth medium each-way stakes. Hopefully he'll show his true self for once, jump like a stage and cruise to victory.

stiffler123

Picked every horse e/w today, none placed. Then last race I decided feck it I'll make my money back, Tullamore Jew for the win. Finishes 3rd.

x PyRo

That's horse racing dude. Even when we're right, we're wrong! Still 3 days to change it around though and good luck today.

x PyRo

Final bets..

(4:00 Cheltenham - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle)

Taking on a few here again in what should be a cracking race.

The first of which is Alan King's highly talented 6 year old, Walkon. He was extremely well punted for the Totesport Trophy when last seen in the middle of February. He was said to have succumbed to the "bounce" factor and assuming he comes here fit and well, another big performance could be on the cards. He was second in the Triumph Hurdle back in '09 before going on to win the Grade 1 Novices' Hurdle at Aintree the following month. However, he suffered injuries since and wasn't seen again until January of this year, where he put in a cracking performance to come 2nd of 14 in a Grade 2 Handicap Hurdle at Ascot, going down narrowly to Tiger O'Toole, who he re-opposes on 4lb better terms and should swing that form around. The combination of stepping back up on trip and racing on better ground should see him run a cracker despite having the burden of top weight (good record in this race). Walkon also has a course win under his name on heavy ground, so he's obviously well suited to the course and stays well, so I've no reason to believe he can't bely his odds of 18/1 and get involved, especially with 5 places being paid. Trainer, Alan King, has a good record in this race, with 3 places from 9 runners, and he's due to get one to win sometime soon, so hopefully it's now. The horse deserves to get his head in-front and I'll play medium each-way stakes on him to do so.

Arcalis from the Howard Johnson yard is also interesting. He's 11 years old now but has been running well in Graded company of late, finishing close enough to Big Buck's on his first attempt over 3 miles, before finding a rapidly run race over the same distance at this track too much last time out, in a race won by Grand Crus. He did plug on to come a modest 6th though and the return to this trip, on good ground, should see him hold reasonable claims. Usually this race is run by younger, unexposed types but the 2005 Supreme Novices' winner has shaped as if his first win for nearly 4 years may not be far away, if he gets conditions right, which he does today. He's a spring horse, does all his winning on good ground, handles the track, is relatively unexposed over the distance and is from a yard that I've a lot of time for. He ran a good 2nd in the County Hurdle last year when coming 3 lengths behind Thousand Stars, in which the ground wasn't in his favour but it shows his obvious liking for the Cheltenham track, and if on a going day, the 22/1 price tag may look a little silly. He should be race fit having had 2 runs this season and although he's in his twilight years, he has lots of his old zest and may be capable of pulling off a slight shock. He's well handicapped too. Smallish each way bet and hopefully he'll fill one of the 5 places at least. I've also a feeling that he could be a Pricewise pick, given the overnight market movement, so I think getting on as soon as possible would be advisable, given that it will continue to shorten.

Last but certainly not least, I'm punting Nick Williams' For Non Stop, who looks potentially well in having got within 6 lengths of Grand Crus over C&D from a 10lb lower mark. He has since run well in a Grade 1 contest, finishing 4th, well behind the winner but just 2 lengths behind Al Ferof. His form seems rock solid and from a rating of 135, he is bound to be in with a huge chance. He's probably the most likely winner, given his scope for improvement, attractive mark, possible improvement on this quicker ground and the fact that he has some very good form in the book. His trainer has only ever run 2 horses in the last 10 runnings of this race, both finishing in the places. Hopefully he can build on that here and go one better. He goes well fresh (runs off 77 day break) and this has probably been his target all season, with a view to going novice chasing sooner rather than later (should make a cracking staying chaser). He fits a lot of the trends for this race too and I can't fancy likely favourite Aegean Dawn on bit, even though he has looked extremely talented to date. He won his last race off 119 and was highly impressive, but runs here off 145, which I can't have. He was reported to have disappointed in a schooling session last week too before improving on Saturday, so God knows how he actually is. Although as I say, it's impossible to know with Henderson, which is annoying! He's a big player if things go to plan but I just can't have him at all. I'm playing a big win stake on For Non Stop, who will hopefully not stop and go on to win, followed home by my each-way shots!

Walkon - 2pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)
Arcalis - 1.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (Stan James)
For Non Stop - 5pts win @ 13/2 (WillHill)

Both e/w bets are 1/4 odds, 5 places.

Tricast? :pac:

Fowler87

Any thoughts on how Ballyhaunis will fare in the Coral cup, Pyro? Odds have drifted from around 25 to around 12/1 since yesterday:eek: Named after me town too so having a couple of novelty quid on it for the craic:pac:

x PyRo

Only seeing this now dude, so apologies for not getting back to you.

I reckon I should just pick out my own bets then just place lay the life out of them. It'd be profitable! Shocking again today, including 3 fallers ffs. Can't catch a break.

Backing one in the bumper and Fred Winter. Cba with reasoning.

4:40 Cheltenham - Mark Twain - 1pt e/w @ 100/1 (SportingBet)

5:15 Cheltenham - Bygones In Brid - 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (Betfred)

UrbanSea

Unlucky,some winners tomorrow to come.

livdmg

I had Cheltenian half written down, scored it out and bet on go all the way:rolleyes: and had Boston Angels in a terrible placepot but did not back him solo
Hopefully it will all be turn around for the next two days.Best of luck Pyro

x PyRo

Cheers lads. That's unlucky Livdmg, had read about Elliot saying Carlito Brigante was exceptionally well handicapped but decided I had enough staked, then he sluiced up and my fellow fell at the last when still there in 2nd but would of lost anyways. The gambling Gods despise me.

(Jewson Novices' Chase)

1:30 Cheltenham - Loosen My Load - 5pts @ 7/1 (Bet365)

I'm really keen on Henry De Bromhead's chances of making it 3 win from 3 runners at this years Cheltenham festival. His lively 7 year old, Loosen My Load, is progressive, unexposed (like the whole field) and certainly going places. The general consensus is that he wasn't good enough when running at Grade 1 & 2 level last twice, but I don't believe that to be true at all. The first of those races was over 2 mile here at Cheltenham in November, where he had to concede 6lbs to both Ghizao and Captain Chris. First of all, the 2 mile trip was too short against those two, as he lacks the gears to show his best and second of all, they're 2 mightily classy types. The former won by 10 lengths from Captain Chris, with my selection a neck back in 3rd, which was a cracking run giving nearly half a stone to the horse who has since become this years Arkle winner.

Loosen My Load is a wonderful jumper, relentless galloper and the step up to 2m 4f is right up his street. He was caught out on heavy ground over 2m 1f on extremely testing heavy ground at Leopardstown when last seen. He has about 5 lengths to overturn with the 2nd placed horse that day, Noble Prince. However, with the added distance and better ground, I think it should and could well be turned around handily. Loosen My Load was unbeaten in 3 chases before stepping down in trip. He won once on Good to Firm ground and twice on Good ground. He should prove to be a much better spring horse and despite a few months off the track, De Bromhead should have him spot on to land this Grade 2 contest. Whether he's up to it is another thing, but I think he has everything needed to win this. He has winning form around here over hurdles, ran a career best here over fences conceding weight and running over a trip too short. All in all, his lack of gears in the ground are behind his latest defeat, and the other run was an insurmountable challenge against classy types. I fancy him to run a cracker and give connections yet another big win at the festival. Yard are in top form, jockey bound to be full of confidence and a horse with lots of talent. 7/1 is much too big and I'm going in big.

Gavin "shels"

On Loosen My Load myself, got very good word of him 2 hours ago (probably the best and realible word possible).:D

jive

Gavin shels wrote: »

On Loosen My Load myself, got very good word of him 2 hours ago (probably the best and realible word possible).:D

ha i'm on him too only i know shag all about horses and didn't get any word on him. Surely a good omen that 3 of us picked him out with 3 different methods :P HES A CERT PUT THE HOUSE ON IT