Pyro's Cheltenham 2011 Log

x PyRo

Encouraging. Hopefully he does us a good turn. I know I need it or I'll be licking my wounds all weekend. But I'll also be licking my lips at the thought of cleaning up on the flat!

(Pertemps Final - Handicap Hurdle)

2:05 Cheltenham - Kayf Aramis - 2.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (Ladbrokes - 5 places)

Doesn't have the best of strike rates over hurdles but he's a high class animal on his day. An 8 length 5th of 24 in this race last year from a 7lb higher mark and shaped as if coming back to form in a heavy ground Grade 2 at Haydock last time out. Kayf Aramis was outpaced approaching 3 out but stayed on gamely to finish 1.75 lengths behind Bensalem and a further 6 lengths behind the mud loving Cross Kennon. They were miles clear of the rest. The return to a sounder surface should suit and the removal of cheekpieces seemed to prove a positive last time out, and they're off again here. That run wasn't far off a career best for him and the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained 9 year old can entice his trainers good record in this race by taking advantage of some eventual leniency by the handicapper.

Kayf Aramis may be 9 years old but horses his age have a cracking record in this race, winning 4 of the last 10 renewals. His yard have also won 2 running of this in the last 10 and they come here looking for their first win of this festival, to boost their already impressive record on track. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride and a handy 3lbs off his back. He's a jockey I've a lot of time for and was on board this fellow for the first time last time out, hopefully with the intention of getting some race experience on him in anticipation of landing this £40,000 prize. Kayf Aramis' course form is solid. He has only won here once from 8 attempts but has placed on 4 other occasions, all within the last couple of years. They should go a good gallop, with him sitting in behind (pays to race handy in this race) and he jumps well enough too. Everything is set up for a big run from him and with 5 places paid, he's worth a decent go at a very nice price. He's obviously in good order, well handicapped, highly suited to conditions and talented on his day. This is a 24 runner race but the big fields made for him (won this in '09 for Venetia Williams), so hopefully Twister has him tuned up and ready to roar.

thesandeman

Think the omens are good tonight alright lads. I backed Loosen My Load earlier before I took my siesta and Ive got Kayf backed Ante-Post. If you put up Gauvain as well Ill be laughing :-P

jive

hahah I backed kayf aswell earlier tonight. Pyro **** off your gonna jinx the lot of us :pac: Surely today you turn it around though!! +50 points on the day let's go

edit; I constructed this excellent image because the way I'm going on makes me look like I'm full of ****. Important bit in red box

went a bit nuts on paint, reliving childhood for a bit

x PyRo

I've done the kiss of death on them!

Sandy, I won't put up Gauvain just to give you a chance. :pac:

Backing nothing else today. Looks a horrific card for punting and I need money for pints!

Edit : LOL at the pic Jive!

UrbanSea

jive wrote: »

ha i'm on him too only i know shag all about horses and didn't get any word on him. Surely a good omen that 3 of us picked him out with 3 different methods :P HES A CERT PUT THE HOUSE ON IT

Foundations in the 3.50
Put your house on it.

ValueSeeker

How are you getting on mate? I've been going completely with the market movers and it's not going great so far. Not too bad though. -5pts.

x PyRo

Absolutely shocking dude. Can't pick a winner but that's a recurring trend on the NH for me.

Backed one in the next race. No reasoning.

4:00 Cheltenham - Peplum - 2pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)

Edit : Fecked early.

20 Times 20 Times

hard to look past junior in the 4.40 isnt it

jive

i had holmwood legend @ 20/1.... i've been doing a cheeky 1 euro e/w all week but holmwood legend was the last bet i put on last night and i just put on 0.62c e/w to even out the account :rolleyes: a win is a win i guess :pac:

edit; Im on fredo and galaxy rock in the next. 20/1 and 18/1 respectively. I know I shouldn't be posting this in your log but I've already made the post and i'm doing a suspicious amount of aftertiming. Hopefully you strike big soon, the losses will be forgotten.


edit2; galaxy rock placed @ 4th

x PyRo

Spending the last of the Cheltenham fund so some stakes will be higher than usual.

(JCB Triumph Hurdle)

1:30 Cheltenham - Local Hero - 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (WillHill)

4 places being paid here and if Steve Gollings' talented 4 year old can improve for the return to better ground, then grabbing a place here could be possible at least. Local Hero has C&D winning form, when landing a Grade 2 trial by 2 lengths to Third Intention (a 12/1 shot here). He showed a very good attitude to win that race, and despite jumping 3 of the final 4 hurdles in poor fashion, he won going away and a shade cosily. The benefit of AP McCoy being on board really showed that day and despite the fact the he deserts the horse in favour of A Media Luz, I think that Gollings' runner can cause a shock here. That race he won, The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle, has thrown up 1 winner and 3 places from 8 runners in recent years, clearly proving it's a decent trial for this. He has a serious engine, a decent turn of foot and should prove much better in a bigger field with a good gallop. His jumping is obviously a bit sketchy but he has won 3 of his 4 races and is steadily improving. His only blot was last time out, when tackling heavy ground for the first time. He didn't give his running at all and was very disappointing, but the ground was far from ideal and he couldn't pick up on it, not helped by jumping right throughout, losing a couple of lengths at the majority of the 9 hurdles. I reckon he'll prove much better in the jumping department in a big field and if all goes to plan, he should be staying on as well as anything on ground that suits. Rhys Flint takes the ride on him for the first time and he boasts a 20% strike rate over hurdles for this yard (25 rides, 5 wins). He's a decent jockey and although he has never won at the festival (has went close), I'll take my chances. 25/1 could look a silly price after the race, so I'll play medium each-way stakes, but knowing my luck, he'll tail off a remote last.

(Vincent O Brien County Handicap Hurdle)

2:05 Cheltenham - Get Me Out Of Here - 5pts e/w @ 16/1 (PaddyPower)

Today could be the day that Jonjo O'Neill's talented 7 year old finally gets off the mark this season. Get Me Out Of Here has been extremely disappointing this year, failing to win in 3 attempts, the first of which when sent off as a 5/2 favourite in a Listed contest at Ascot. He was given a tender ride by AP McCoy that day and came a poor 7th of 11, bringing those who touted him as a potential Champion Hurdle back down to earth. His next assignment was the Greatwood Hurdle, where he re-opposed the horse who touched him off by a head in last years Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Menorah. A head turned into 23 lengths, as the JP McManus owned gelding disappointed yet again, but he didn't really settle and was ridden with tender hands for the second time, with other days clearly in mind having seen his challenge weaken after 2 out. It was a similar story 4 weeks ago, where he lined up in the Totesport Trophy (won it last year). However, he was easy to back as the ground went against him with the race postponed by a week. Before that, he was well punted in the ante-post market and is obviously showing a bit at home. Get Me Out Of Here was bang there 2 out, going well until failing to pick up in the ground. He was allowed to jog his way home yet again and obviously didn't run up to abilities. He's now dropped 2lbs, to a mark of 148, which is certainly workable given his undoubted talent. The better ground and return to Cheltenham could see him in a much better light, with a place being a very likely outcome if he's tuned up and going all out, which is hard to know with O'Neill's horses, but I'll take my chances. He should prove to be a much better spring horse and his time could well be now. Jonjo has a grand record in this race, with 1 winner and 1 place from 6 runners. The yard had a welcomed winner yesterday with another animal who hasn't shown his true colours this season and I think that this fellow could follow suit, going on to hopefully land the £40,000 prize. The likely fast pace and big field should help him settle a lot better, which will be key to his chances, and assuming he does so, he has a huge chance of placing, much larger than the odds suggest. The last 4 winners of this race have been priced up at 20/1, 20/1, 50/1 & 12/1, so it's definitely worth siding with something well priced, which my selection undoubtedly is on last years form, where he had 4 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs. He has the scope to jump fences and should get further than this trip in time, but for the moment, I think he's a shoe-in to run a big race here and I'm having a sizable each-way chunk at the current 16/1, which is madness with 5 places being paid. If he runs to ability and last seasons form, he places or wins. If he runs to this seasons half-arsed attempts, he'll finish a modest 8th or 9th, barely ridden and saved for another day. Hopefully it's the former.

(Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle)

2:40 Cheltenham - Allee Garde - 2pts e/w @ 33/1 (BlueSq)

The apparent second string from this yard if jockey bookings are correct but Allee Garde couldn't of been more impressive when routing an average field at Down Royal last time out. He was a decent Bumper runner, failing to win but put in a few good attempts. However, the switch to hurdling and step up in trip to 2m 4f done the trick and he can go on to knick a place here if coming on for that experience. He traveled best throughout and eased into contention on the bridle, before extending within a couple of strides and putting daylight between himself and the field. He wasn't asked a thing and although it was a very modest field, he shaped as if being a potentially nice stayer and showed a nice, instant turn of foot to put things beyond doubt. He's trained by Willie Mullins, so there's bound to be a lot of improvement in him and the yard had a place in this race last year with the apparent 4th string. DJ Casey takes the reins here, replacing Paul Townend who rides Gagewell Flyer instead. Casey has done me good turns in the past and although he has never ridden a winner over the Cheltenham hurdles, he's a jockey I've a lot of time for. The step up in trip should suit according to Mullins and if the ground has a little bit of cut, I reckon Allee Garde could run a cracker, despite having limited experience in a race where it's usually needed. At 33/1 with 4 places being paid, it's surely worth taking a chance on and he could really be anything. One firm only go 20/1 with 3 places being paid, so maybe they no something! Regardless, he could be a lively outsider in a race where a similarly priced Irish raider landed the spoils last year.

(Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase)

3:20 Cheltenham - Pandorama - 5pts @ 20/1 (WillHill - Antepost)

Posted this one a few minutes after Noel Meade's star landed the Lexus Chase back at the end of December and I reckoned at the time that it was a crazy price. That has proved to be right, as Pandorama is now only a 12/1 shot at best, but it's still not assured that he'll run and it's quite possible I'll lose my money without a run, not that it'll be too disappointing given how the horses I've backed have actually ran! He's very ground dependent so there'll need to be sufficient rain overnight to see him line out, but assuming he does, this up and coming superstar has everything needed to win the highlight of any staying chasers career. He won the Lexus in impressive fashion, scoring by an easy 6 lengths despite making what would normally be a costly mistake at the 3rd last, but his class saw him cruise back into contention and go on to land his third Grade 1 Chase, on his 5th start. The winner of that race has a good record in recent times, with 2 winners and 1 place from 8 runners. Noel Meade has 2 places from his 3 runners in this race and it'd be just deserts for the man if he could finally land the big one, so I'm praying for bucket loads of rain overnight, even though it'd hinder some of my other selections. Pandorama was a very talented novice hurdler, landing a maiden and 2 Grade 1's from his 4 starts in that code, finishing 2nd to the exceptional Mikael D'Haguenet in the other, being turned over as the 2/7 favourite. He won 2 Bumpers before embarking on his journey over obstacles also. The only blot on his chasing copybook was when he went over to England to contest the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. He blundered his way over the 2nd fence and was badly hampered at the 4th by a faller, before pulling up having never had a chance to get involved. The ground that day was Good to Soft, so it may not take too much rain to give him a chance of running here and if he does, I should get a run for my money at least. He fits into a lot of the trends, but doesn't have an Cheltenham form, which has proved a necessity in recent years, but I'll happily pass over that. He's clearly a talented animal, has a high cruising speed, jumps well in the main and seems to have a brilliant engine. If conditions are suitable and he jumps around, I've no doubt that he'll be bang there in contention come the final couple of fences. Long Run is beginning to worry me and despite the fact that I wrote him off on a number of occasions, I've been proved wrong and I reckon he could dominate around here for years to come, just as soon as he runs a cracker around Cheltenham, which he has failed to do of yet, showing his liking for flat tracks when winning the King George at a canter, having been given a fine ride by Sam Waley-Cohen, who I was also very wrong about. However, this may be a year too early for him and although he has a massive engine and still has more to offer (scary!), 5/1 just isn't worth it, even for a saver. The older horses, Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander all have chances but the fact remains that 10 & 11 year olds have a 0 from 49 record here, with only 4 places, and they're looked over quickly. Kempes has a chance, but not a huge one and he's too short for me to get involved with. Every time I back him he loses too. I've no doubt that Pandorama is up to this class, although he'd have to improve again but is certainly capable of doing so. Here's hoping there's heavy rain in the morning. If not and the ground is remotely good, China Rock could run a cracker at 28/1 and is worthy of consideration.

Skipping the Foxhunters, awful one to solve.

(Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle)

4:40 Cheltenham - Barizan - 4pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

5 places are being paid and I think this little bizarre horse can come back to form. Barizan likes to front run, but not in the traditional sense. He absolutely blasts off in front when on song, often taking 15+ length leads out of the field within no time and he can keep up the gallop for a long way. He hasn't been in great form of late but he's a spring horse and often comes into his own at this time of year. The visor is obviously key to him and it hasn't been on last thrice, where his form has read ; 3-6-5, all in small fields and very disappointing runs. However, it's back on now and his form with it in place reads ; 1-1-1-1-2-2-2-1-3-7, with the latter being when he couldn't get to anywhere near the lead, due to there being another lunatic in the field! Apart from that, his headgear is clearly important to his chances and the fact that Evan Williams decides to put it back on now could be very significant, especially as his horse steps down to face horses rated 140 and below for the first time in a while. Barizan was well backed in the Triumph Hurdle last year, where he set a frantic pace and was 16 lengths clear 2 out and but for 2 mistakes at the final couple of hurdles, he'd of landed that Grade 1 event for 4 year olds. His Cheltenham form reads ; 1-2-2-3-6, so he obviously likes it around here and even though the trip could be a bit much for him, he's very dangerous up again this field. The yard are in good knick and Aodhagan Conlon who rides him for the first time is a very good jockey on the prowl for his first Cheltenham success, at the 3rd attempt. He's one of the better conditional jockeys in the field and if he can give this fellow a smart ride, he'll have every chance. Barizan handles most ground, although he's more effective on a sounder surface. If he can get to the front and run his usual race, I think he'll prove to be vastly overpriced at 25/1. There has been some overnight support for him and I wouldn't be overly surprised to see the price short considerably. He doesn't warrant being this price by any means and hopefully he'll justify it. The trip is a slight concern but he's class on his day and will be hard to peg back if he gets a run on the field. Big each way bet for me, has a great chance of being in the top 5.

jive

nice write up, good luck tomorrow you deserve a break

D1976

Good luck today Pyro

x PyRo

Cheers lads. Really need it! Enjoyed the festival so much though. Imagine how good it'd be if I was getting some money back. :pac:

El Horseboxo

Good luck dude. For your write ups and research alone you deserve a winner or two.

Nulty

Break a leg.

Nulty

Thats heartbreaking. Very unlucky.

thesandeman

Cant believe that :-(

iggy

BALLS

budgemook

allee garde gone out to 66-1 :eek:

x PyRo

Heartbreaking would be the right word. I was full sure he'd plow on and win. That was the difference between breaking even and losing a fortune.

Had one last go.

5:15 Cheltenham - Sports Line - 2pts e/w @ 28/1 (Bet365 - 5 places)

argosy2006

Something about form and class......

mixed up

I know you were very unlucky earlier on i taught mccoy had held on but you have said yourself you are better at picking horses in the flat racing so would you not just take a break untill the flat season starts.

Nulty

We were both done by Mullins' horses on the line. Sir des Champs caught Son of Flicka.

I feel your pain.

x PyRo

@Argosy - I've neither. :pac:

@Mixed - I'll be doing exactly that and next season I'll be paper-trading before hopefully building up some sort of portfolio of horses to go to war with at next seasons Cheltenham. The money is there to be made of the flat, it's not to be made here.

@Nulty - Seen that. Unlucky dude. Absolutely gutting isn't it? Oh the joys of horse racing!

Profit/(Loss) ; 81pts

Horrific Cheltenham for myself, only backed one winner, the only bet I didn't post here.

Get Me Out Of Here was beaten by a nose in a photo. The most heartbreaking result I've possibly ever had. Nailed in the final stride and the difference between a 81 point loss and a 4 point profit was just that, a nose.

Gutted that Pandorama ran. Was hoping it'd rain and I'd get a run for my money but then when it didn't I hoped he'd be pulled, didn't get to show his true self there at all.

Ah well, can't do anything about it now. Getting prepared for the flat season and I'll have a "10 to follow" list done in the coming weeks, before making a charge at winning again.

Cheers to all who looked, read, commented.

Thread closed and banished to the pits of hell! I'll have my flat one open and ready to rock in a little while.