council seat

HarryPotter41

neiphin wrote: »

so where was the small farmer ( sub 50 acre ) vote for ff

Like the working class vote it was included in the 17.8% nationwide, it also went to the independents and the harder line republican element of it went to Sinn Fein.

I am just curious as to when you plan on backing up your assertions with a few facts seeing as I am backing mine up with stats, it would be helpful.

neiphin

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

Like the working class vote it was included in the 17.8% nationwide, it also went to the independents and the harder line republican element of it went to Sinn Fein.

I am just curious as to when you plan on backing up your assertions with a few facts seeing as I am backing mine up with stats, it would be helpful.

let me put it to you this way

1n 1999 ff won 6 seats in europe, in 2009 just 3
in the 2009 council election ff lost almost 1/3 of their seats
in the 2007 election ff won 78 seats, in 2011 down to 20 lost 3/4 of their seats
my point
is that ff have been loosing support consistently and that the socio economic classes that you cling to your bosom , have abandoned you
the small farmer was abandoned by ff for the big builder , he was taken for granted, he was shafted in favour of carbon taxes and smoking bans

HarryPotter41

neiphin wrote: »

let me put it to you this way

1n 1999 ff won 6 seats in europe, in 2009 just 3
in the 2009 council election ff lost almost 1/3 of their seats
in the 2007 election ff won 78 seats, in 2011 down to 20 lost 3/4 of their seats
my point
is that ff have been loosing support consistently and that the socio economic classes that you cling to your bosom , have abandoned you
the small farmer was abandoned by ff for the big builder , he was taken for granted, he was shafted in favour of carbon taxes and smoking bans

I agree wholeheartedly with the abandonment of the FF core vote, but the smoking ban is one of the best things that FF achieved. My figures also show that they have not flooded to FG. Which is my point. Not a natural home for a FF voter.

kippy

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

I agree wholeheartedly with the abandonment of the FF core vote, but the smoking ban is one of the best things that FF achieved. My figures also show that they have not flooded to FG. Which is my point. Not a natural home for a FF voter.

So tell me, how many "Core" FF voters are left in the country and what is their age profile?

HarryPotter41

kippy wrote: »

So tell me, how many "Core" FF voters are left in the country and what is their age profile?

More than the 17.8%, there was extreme anger amongst FF supporters and many voted for SF or Independents. The age profile is a lot younger than people would like to think, FF is like most parties, attracts votes from all age ranges, though this time a lot of the vote that stuck with it was the older hard core.

kippy

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

More than the 17.8%, there was extreme anger amongst FF supporters and many voted for SF or Independents. The age profile is a lot younger than people would like to think, FF is like most parties, attracts votes from all age ranges, though this time a lot of the vote that stuck with it was the older hard core.

I thought there was a socio economic background thing that defined them as well......
So the older ones are the "hard core" while the younger ones are more likely to swing?

finisklin

kippy wrote: »

So the older ones are the "hard core" while the younger ones are more likely to swing?

What exactly are we discussing here.....:rolleyes:

HarryPotter41

kippy wrote: »

I thought there was a socio economic background thing that defined them as well......
So the older ones are the "hard core" while the younger ones are more likely to swing?

They voted against Fianna Fail, generally not for Fine Gael. Fine Gael's vote went up 8.8% from the previous election, Fianna Fail's vote dropped by 23.8%, statistically if any FF voters switched to Fine Gael they were very few, so they went to other candidates who were closer to their beliefs and values. As the debate is in relation to the difference between FG and FF supporters how much more information do I have to provide.

HarryPotter41

finisklin wrote: »

What exactly are we discussing here.....:rolleyes:

With what you're thinking I hope to God the oul ones wouldn't be swinging :eek:

kippy

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

They voted against Fianna Fail, generally not for Fine Gael. Fine Gael's vote went up 8.8% from the previous election, Fianna Fail's vote dropped by 23.8%, statistically if any FF voters switched to Fine Gael they were very few, so they went to other candidates who were closer to their beliefs and values. As the debate is in relation to the difference between FG and FF supporters how much more information do I have to provide.

You used the socio economic background to differentiate between both sets of "hard core" supporters. Are you saying that these backgrounds have now changed as well?
Fianna Fail picked up a lot of "supporters" in the past decade or so because they were giving away money hand over fist - these "supporters" dont support any party as such, just the ones that are doing best for them - that had been the case, then people have copped onto the very short term nature of this way of voting.

HarryPotter41

kippy wrote: »

You used the socio economic background to differentiate between both sets of "hard core" supporters. Are you saying that these backgrounds have now changed as well?
Fianna Fail picked up a lot of "supporters" in the past decade or so because they were giving away money hand over fist - these "supporters" dont support any party as such, just the ones that are doing best for them - that had been the case, then people have copped onto the very short term nature of this way of voting.

You will find the use of the phrase hard core is yours, not mine

kippy

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

You will find the use of the phrase hard core is yours, not mine

Well if the 17% of the vote that FF got this time around werent the "Hard core" support - what were they?

HarryPotter41

kippy wrote: »

Well if the 17% of the vote that FF got this time around werent the "Hard core" support - what were they?

They were hard core, FF's core vote is generally considered to be somewhere in the region of 25%, FG slightly below that, all the rest are floating voters, they are the people who would not ever support the other party. FF's core vote was very angry this time, but did not desert to Fine Gael. They wanted to punish Fianna Fail for its arrogance and did so.

Reillyman

I could have been told wrong but we were always told by varying history/politics teachers that the majority of farmers in Ireland support FG. This is due to DeValera's policies which led to the economic war with Britain, causing a lot of hardship for farmers throughout Ireland.

HarryPotter41

Reillyman wrote: »

I could have been told wrong but we were always told by varying history/politics teachers that the majority of farmers in Ireland support FG. This is due to DeValera's policies which led to the economic war with Britain, causing a lot of hardship for farmers throughout Ireland.

Larger farmers, yes

oscarBravo

Reillyman wrote: »

This is due to DeValera's policies...

Anyone whose vote in 2011 is in any way, shape or form informed by DeValera's policies is suffering from the sort of over-long memory syndrome that I was complaining about earlier.

In the second decade of the 21st century, describing Fine Gael as the party of larger farmers is so laughable it's hard to believe anyone could say it with a straight face.

So if someone won't vote for Fine Gael because of past policies, well, that perfectly illustrates my point about what's wrong with the country.

finisklin

oscarBravo wrote: »

Anyone whose vote in 2011 is in any way, shape or form informed by DeValera's policies is suffering from the sort of over-long memory syndrome that I was complaining about earlier.

At least Dev didn't have to contend with any traffic problems or transport policy development of note.......;)

HarryPotter41

oscarBravo wrote: »

Anyone whose vote in 2011 is in any way, shape or form informed by DeValera's policies is suffering from the sort of over-long memory syndrome that I was complaining about earlier.

In the second decade of the 21st century, describing Fine Gael as the party of larger farmers is so laughable it's hard to believe anyone could say it with a straight face.

So if someone won't vote for Fine Gael because of past policies, well, that perfectly illustrates my point about what's wrong with the country.

People vote for then because of policies, most of which are pretty much the same as they have been for years. The discussion was illustrating that FG and FF appeal to a different base. Plenty of statistics above to show that FF voters did not particularly switch to FG. There is no one trying to prove that they are voting because of past policies. The drop in the FF vote is purely because of policies for the last 14 years.

finisklin

Is there an inference then that if FF adopt the right policies that these previous FF voters will return at the next GE?

I am not sure about this.....I think the GE just gone is akin to the Civil War where people's DNA has altered to exclude FF. A seismic change has happened in how people view FF that is not going to change over the next few years, people will pass this view on to their kids and so on.

Though if FG have to make significant, adverse decisions that are poorly implemented with a two fingers salute may undue this, IMHO.

Interested to hear what people think on this.....

oscarBravo

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

People vote for then because of policies, most of which are pretty much the same as they have been for years.

What specific policies of the current coalition government are discriminatory against FF-supporting socio-economic groups?

HarryPotter41

oscarBravo wrote: »

What specific policies of the current coalition government are discriminatory against FF-supporting socio-economic groups?

Try the plan to take away mortgage relief for first time buyers to give relief to people in negative equity.

oscarBravo

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

Try the plan to take away mortgage relief for first time buyers to give relief to people in negative equity.

I can see that first-time buyers would be unhappy with that, but I can't see how it relates to the people of Bonniconlon, or of rural Mayo, or rural Ireland, or large farmers, or any particular socio-economic group other than first-time buyers - so I remain unclear on the original point, I'm afraid.

HarryPotter41

finisklin wrote: »

Is there an inference then that if FF adopt the right policies that these previous FF voters will return at the next GE?

I am not sure about this.....I think the GE just gone is akin to the Civil War where people's DNA has altered to exclude FF. A seismic change has happened in how people view FF that is not going to change over the next few years, people will pass this view on to their kids and so on.

Though if FG have to make significant, adverse decisions that are poorly implemented with a two fingers salute may undue this, IMHO.

Interested to hear what people think on this.....

Like any political party if they have the right policies people will vote for them, will take 10 years at least before FF make major inroads because the trust with the electorate is virtually lost. Nobody is saying FF will make much inroads at the next GE and the anger even from its own former supporters may take time to abate.

There are plenty of policies that can trip up the current government, health insurance, the "review" of the USC as opposed to its promised abolition as well as a multitude of problems no government can plan for.

neiphin

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

will take 10 years at least before FF make major inroads because the trust with the electorate is virtually lost.

what in your opinion was the cause for the loss of trust ?
were there any specific incidents ?, that galled you in particular ?

HarryPotter41

oscarBravo wrote: »

I can see that first-time buyers would be unhappy with that, but I can't see how it relates to the people of Bonniconlon, or of rural Mayo, or rural Ireland, or large farmers, or any particular socio-economic group other than first-time buyers - so I remain unclear on the original point, I'm afraid.

With the drop in house prices there will people on lower incomes than before trying to get a home for the first time, mortgage relief was a major plus in helping them with this especially if they were young and just after starting a family. higher income families would not be as reliant on the mortgage relief for the first 7 years as lower income families.

HarryPotter41

neiphin wrote: »

what in your opinion was the cause for the loss of trust ?
were there any specific incidents ?, that galled you in particular ?

The major loss of trust came from the fact that despite the dogs on the street knowing that the boom could not continue the way it was going this kept being denied by people in government. The grassroots of the party had railed against the cosiness with big business ( it was pressure from the grassroots, finally after years of trying, that forced the stop of the Galway tent ) and its move away from what the core values of the party were.

It became clear that Ahern ran the party and the country as his own little fiefdom and brooked no argument from anyone at Cabinet meetings and at Party meetings. His pre election interview confirmed the arrogance of the man to many.

I have considered many times walking away but I believe in politics as a public service, one that should be serving the public right down to up and down every road, avenue and boreen in the country. I have stuck with it because of the party I first joined 25 years ago believed in that and I want that to be its ethos once again. I have nothing in common with Fine Gael, the only other party I would consider myself close to in views would be Labour but this election switched me off them with their pandering policies and obfuscation.

Everything Fianna Fail has done for the last 14 years has not been bad, there were achievements, but there was a huge disconnect from the ordinary people of Ireland and even from the grassroots of the party who were ordinary people with daily lives to live as well who should have been listened to. This disconnect led to the cosy relationship between regulators, government and bankers and builders that meant money was being spent hand over fist by both government and people themselves with no realisation that their could be consequences.

The ultimate betrayal of trust was being the government who brought in the IMF, and worse, lying about it ( though some ministers hadn't been told by Pinky and the brain that the IMF were coming in ). It may be something that will never be forgiven. That's why FF needs to go back to its core values and work on the ground for the good of the people of this country and forget the ivory towers they spent the last 14 years in.


FF deserved the kicking it got, a lot of deadwood was gotten rid of that should have been gotten rid of years ago. The top of the party have finally realised that you cannot ignore the ordinary people of the country and think they will forgive you for it. They waited in the long grass and took their revenge.

If they spend the next ten years perpetuating the same s***e as they have for the last few years then I will walk away too. As will others.

oscarBravo

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

With the drop in house prices there will people on lower incomes than before trying to get a home for the first time, mortgage relief was a major plus in helping them with this especially if they were young and just after starting a family. higher income families would not be as reliant on the mortgage relief for the first 7 years as lower income families.

With respect, that's a stretch. That strikes me more as an attempt to fit a policy into a pre-conceived idea than as evidence that a party's policies are consistently unfavourable to an entire socio-economic group.

It also leaves aside the facts that (a) the country is broke, and can't afford the tax breaks that it once could, and (b) property-related tax incentives are part of the reason we're in so much trouble in the first place.

finisklin

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

The major loss of trust came from the fact that despite the dogs on the street knowing that the boom could not continue the way it was going this kept being denied by people in government. The grassroots of the party had railed against the cosiness with big business ( it was pressure from the grassroots, finally after years of trying, that forced the stop of the Galway tent ) and its move away from what the core values of the party were.

It became clear that Ahern ran the party and the country as his own little fiefdom and brooked no argument from anyone at Cabinet meetings and at Party meetings. His pre election interview confirmed the arrogance of the man to many.

I have considered many times walking away but I believe in politics as a public service, one that should be serving the public right down to up and down every road, avenue and boreen in the country. I have stuck with it because of the party I first joined 25 years ago believed in that and I want that to be its ethos once again. I have nothing in common with Fine Gael, the only other party I would consider myself close to in views would be Labour but this election switched me off them with their pandering policies and obfuscation.

Everything Fianna Fail has done for the last 14 years has not been bad, there were achievements, but there was a huge disconnect from the ordinary people of Ireland and even from the grassroots of the party who were ordinary people with daily lives to live as well who should have been listened to. This disconnect led to the cosy relationship between regulators, government and bankers and builders that meant money was being spent hand over fist by both government and people themselves with no realisation that their could be consequences.

The ultimate betrayal of trust was being the government who brought in the IMF, and worse, lying about it ( though some ministers hadn't been told by Pinky and the brain that the IMF were coming in ). It may be something that will never be forgiven. That's why FF needs to go back to its core values and work on the ground for the good of the people of this country and forget the ivory towers they spent the last 14 years in.


FF deserved the kicking it got, a lot of deadwood was gotten rid of that should have been gotten rid of years ago. The top of the party have finally realised that you cannot ignore the ordinary people of the country and think they will forgive you for it. They waited in the long grass and took their revenge.

If they spend the next ten years perpetuating the same s***e as they have for the last few years then I will walk away too. As will others.

Harry, I respect your honesty and freshness. I think Stephen Collins echoed this in the Times yesterday, see exerpt below....

What the last government failed to understand time and time again was the need to take the lead in cutting their overblown pay and entitlements and, equally important, being seen to do so.

In actual fact by the time Cowen and his Ministers lost office they had taken substantial pay cuts compared to the heights of the Bertie Ahern era. The problem was that they didn’t take such action at the beginning of the crisis and thereby forfeited the moral authority to inflict cuts on everybody else.

The way in which the former government appeared to exempt the judiciary from pay cuts and continued to tolerate the extraordinary pay and perks of semi-State bosses like the ESB chief who got €750,000 in 2009 or the chief executives of An Post and Coillte who got close to €500,000 in the same year, did further damage to its authority.

The mood of public anger that broke over the heads of Fianna Fáil candidates in the election had a lot to do with the tolerance it showed towards the privileges of some of those who are paid huge salaries from the public purse by contrast with the impact of public spending cuts on ordinary people.

Full article here.....

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0319/1224292607680.html

For me it's the word ENTITLEMENT and FF that hits home....for that is how they viewed their tenure in office.

Can they come back from this? I honestly don't think so and whatever about Inda's limitations, his honesty is certainly warming to me which is eroding the cynicism that I have built up over the last 14 years regarding politics. Whether that is sufficient to dig us out of the mess that we are in remains to be seen, but it certainly builds optimism and hope.

HarryPotter41

finisklin wrote: »

Harry, I respect your honesty and freshness. I think Stephen Collins echoed this in the Times yesterday, see exerpt below....

What the last government failed to understand time and time again was the need to take the lead in cutting their overblown pay and entitlements and, equally important, being seen to do so.

In actual fact by the time Cowen and his Ministers lost office they had taken substantial pay cuts compared to the heights of the Bertie Ahern era. The problem was that they didn’t take such action at the beginning of the crisis and thereby forfeited the moral authority to inflict cuts on everybody else.

The way in which the former government appeared to exempt the judiciary from pay cuts and continued to tolerate the extraordinary pay and perks of semi-State bosses like the ESB chief who got €750,000 in 2009 or the chief executives of An Post and Coillte who got close to €500,000 in the same year, did further damage to its authority.

The mood of public anger that broke over the heads of Fianna Fáil candidates in the election had a lot to do with the tolerance it showed towards the privileges of some of those who are paid huge salaries from the public purse by contrast with the impact of public spending cuts on ordinary people.

Full article here.....

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0319/1224292607680.html

For me it's the word ENTITLEMENT and FF that hits home....for that is how they viewed their tenure in office.

Can they come back from this? I honestly don't think so and whatever about Inda's limitations, his honesty is certainly warming to me which is eroding the cynicism that I have built up over the last 14 years regarding politics. Whether that is sufficient to dig us out of the mess that we are in remains to be seen, but it certainly builds optimism and hope.

Unfortunately power corrupts, it happened the Tories in England and then in turn happened the Labour Party. It happens in any party that is in power too long, the entitlement is bred by longevity. The same would happen FG and Labour if they win three elections on the trot.

Fianna Fail were not helped by the fact that Haughey and Ahern were at the helm of the party for most of the last 30 years. Reynolds was straightforward and Cowen, while bumbling his way through the job, was not twisted and corrupt like the other two. An almost unbroken run by two corrupt leaders who ran the party with an iron fist helped breed the type of attitude that became deep seated within a lot of them. Look at how many of them ran for the hills as the election came nearer, they were not public servants or even servants of Fianna Fail, they were servants of themselves. Those are the kind of things that angered FF voters to switch their votes in protest.

I wouldn't write the party off just yet. The FF people on the ground are not of that ilk, the grassroots is still the party of Lemass and Lynch. The people on the ground are generally known within their communities as workers for their communities and a return to that from the entire party top to bottom is what can rebuild the trust of people. That will take time however because even FF's own voters have to be won back before anyone else can be persuaded to look at the party as a viable alternative. Even those friends I have actively involved in Fine Gael are firmly convinced the party will rebuild.

Whatever peoples opinions of DC, he is honest and hardworking, and probably without him being the type of politician he is I would have walked away by now. But I see the people who were dragging this country and FF down are gone, either by choice or with some help from the electorate, so it gives me a renewed belief that we can go back to helping people with the issues they face. Thats public service and any politicians of any party, particularly Fianna Fail, who don't want to do that can find some other profession to persue.


Rant over

HarryPotter41

oscarBravo wrote: »

With respect, that's a stretch. That strikes me more as an attempt to fit a policy into a pre-conceived idea than as evidence that a party's policies are consistently unfavourable to an entire socio-economic group.

It also leaves aside the facts that (a) the country is broke, and can't afford the tax breaks that it once could, and (b) property-related tax incentives are part of the reason we're in so much trouble in the first place.

So you would suggest that the tax breaks for those in negative equity ( which most likely would be a damn sight more people than those looking at being first time buyers ) should be done away with too?

And there are variables in whats good for socio economic groups of any variety, so none of them can be buttonholed 100%.

I have also serious issues on the idea of universal health insurance, particularly around cost, again on how it affects those on lower incomes and what the exact premium would be because I do not see how it can be run on the kind of premiums that were bandied about.

I also have issue with free GP visits for everyone. Anyone who can afford to pay for any service should do so. This is just following the same mistakes made by FF in offering medical cards to everyone over 70 regardless of income.