Irish lotto odds!

Bruthal

kippy wrote: »

That is definitely not correct.

Outlawpete looks right to me, he says...

No, if the OP bought 52 lines, his odds of winning the lottery would go from:

8,145,060/1 to 156,635/1.

So its 8,145,060 to 1, divided by 52 to get 156,635 to 1.

If you have to pick a number from 1 to 100, you have a 100 to 1 chance of getting it. Pick 5, and its a 20 to 1 chance.

So you have 8 million combinations to choose from. Pick 52 from them, and its 156,000 to one.

Bruthal

OutlawPete wrote: »

To be honest, I'm not sure how to work out the odds of doing many different lotteries.

Just know that the odds of winning with 52 lines are 156,635/1.

So, is your thinking that the odds are the same for both then?

No i think your right about doing the 52 sets together also, even though the odds seem the same if calcualted.

If you do the 8 million sets in one draw, you now win for certain. If you do it over 8 million seperate draws, you are not certain to win in them 8 million draws.

With 52 sets its practically the same though either way.

yammycat

robbie7730 wrote: »

you are not certain to win in them 8 million draws.

you could win 8 million times though

Bruthal

yammycat wrote: »

you could win 8 million times though

I only seen the horse racing example after i posted my lotto one, the exact same thing:D

yammycat

robbie7730 wrote: »

I only seen the horse racing example after i posted my lotto one, the exact same thing:D

yea I know, I couldn't resist

just-joe

murpho999 wrote: »

Used to do lotto regularly and then one day looked seriously at odds of winning and also read somewhere before that the Lottery is a "voluntary tax on the desparate and stupid" and really had an effect on me and I haven't done it since.

Used the same numbers all the time and checked my numbers and only had 2 match 4 wins totaling about €60 in last 3 years.

Used to do 4 panels with plus in two draws, so that's €16 a week or €832 a year. So last 3 years I would have spent €2496 and won around 60.

Think it makes that quote ring true and glad I don't do it anymore!

I think this is a really interesting thought process. It definitely makes sense, and you do save money by not playing the lotto. However, do you actually notice you're saving anything? Maybe because you spent 16 euros a week, you do. But for example if you only spend 4 euro a week, yeah you could save 52*4= 208 euros a year, but would you really notice it wasn't in your pocket? Probably not when you consider that most people spend all over the place on random things, which cost 4 euros, the best example being a pint.

Yeah, you could have one less pint every time ya went out for a few, and save 4 euros a time which could end up being a small fortune after an extended period of time. But would you really notice?

I guess the right thing to do would be to save the money every week, and then when you have 2496 euro saved up, go and spend it.

But as they say, you have to be in it, to win it!

Agonist

If you work out the probability of winning with one line to 6 decimal places the result is zero. If you do the same calculation for 52 lines you get 0.000006. You are infinitely more likely to win.
It's just another perspective on it but not a very useful one.

Jesus Wept

Just study the numbers.

Overheal

I was serious. scratch cards. the numbers that only show up once on the card? go for those.

lecker Hendl

Overheal wrote: »

I was serious. scratch cards. the numbers that only show up once on the card? go for those.

what are you waffling on about you madman?

JONJO THE MISER

lecker Hendl wrote: »

what are you waffling on about you madman?

Jesus Wept

Keep a spreadsheet of what numbers have come out as it will help you make your selections.

Overheal

lecker Hendl wrote: »

what are you waffling on about you madman?

I would tell you but it the loophole would probably get closed up as fast as when I got high and started harping on about that site that used to mail **** from canada. And now I dont smoke anymore, but still! That was the wrong thing to do.

david

Multiple unique selections in a single draw gives better odds than single unique selections in multiple draws, as each draw is an independent event.

I did attempt to use machine learning to try to predict the main lottery numbers but the 45 ball lotto was only introduced in late 06 giving a very small sample size. There's some evidence that the lottery draw is not completely random. Early indications suggest avoiding choosing balls 6 34 14 16 25 43.

Interestingly, a histogram of balls drawn on Bank Holiday's show a higher proportion of balls <=31 being drawn when compared to 'normal' draws; hence people who pick numbers based on birth dates have a higher chance of winning.

MrThrifty

david wrote: »

Multiple unique selections in a single draw gives better odds than single unique selections in multiple draws, as each draw is an independent event.

Also more commonly referred to as: "Probability has no history". People seem to be missing this point. If you flip a coin two times and it lands on heads both times, then that doesn't make it any more likely it will land on tails if you flip it a third time. Reminds me of these families you see with say 4 children, all of which are boys, and they go having a fifth child in the hope of at last having a little girl!

seamus

MrThrifty wrote: »

Also more commonly referred to as: "Probability has no history". People seem to be missing this point.

Yes, but probability also allows for calculation beforehand of multiple events occuring.

I think what what most people miss is the notion of something being "guaranteed" versus it being "likely". That is, if I propose to flip a coin once, the chances of getting heads are 1/2. If I propose to flip it twice, the odds of getting at least one head are 3/4 (75%). However, if I flip it once and get tails, the odds of getting heads on the next throw remain at 50%. This is the part of probability and randomness that people don't get.

Google appears to suggest that it's binomial probability, which rings bells with me. There's a specific formula for it, and online calculators. Woo.

So, to answer the question, if you do 52 lines in one week, the probability of winning is roughly 1 in 154,000, or 0.0000065
On the other hand, if you do 52 lines over 52 weeks, your odds of winning are
0.0000064999585

So in reality, the odds are so astronomically large that the difference between 52 lines in one day or 52 lines in 52 weeks are negligibly small. But if you want to get technical, 52 lines in one week has a vaguely better chance.

Depressingly enough, online calculators seeming to suggest that if you do one line per draw for 8 million draws, you only have a 63% chance of winning once. Though it's possible those calculators can't work with the figures involved.

johnam

red menace wrote: »

Been thinking about this for a bit,

Would a better lotto system be that all numbers are generated randomly, IE quick pick only.
But once a combination of six numbers has been chosen, that combination is removed from the pool.
It would mean no more sharing of jackpots, maybe it's just the greedy bollix in me

Play millionaire raffle so...because that is what you are proposing

Bruthal

MrThrifty wrote: »

Also more commonly referred to as: "Probability has no history". People seem to be missing this point. If you flip a coin two times and it lands on heads both times, then that doesn't make it any more likely it will land on tails if you flip it a third time. Reminds me of these families you see with say 4 children, all of which are boys, and they go having a fifth child in the hope of at last having a little girl!

Whats funny about that? They have no chance of having a girl if they dont try again.

As for trying multiple number sets in one draw rather than a single set in multiple draws, there is a slightly better chance of multiple sets in the one draw. If you try for example 50 sets in 1 draw, then try the 50 sets but one in each draw, even if one of the 50 sets is drawn, it might not be that set you have in. If you just use a single set in 50 draws, there is the remote possibility of 2 draws having the same numbers and so reducing the chance of winning, although extremely slightly, but more the more draws your in. This is why of you do the 8 million sets in 1 draw, you will certainly win. But if you do either every combination over 8 million draws, or a single set over 8 million draws, you might not win because of the same numbers being drawn more than once at some stage, and a lot of times if 8 million draws were made.

Bruthal

seamus wrote: »

Depressingly enough, online calculators seeming to suggest that if you do one line per draw for 8 million draws, you only have a 63% chance of winning once. Though it's possible those calculators can't work with the figures involved.

I think that is definitely a correct calculation. If 8 million draws are made, the same sets of numbers would appear many times, and not a chance every set would be drawn, thats how you still would not be certain of winning having a set in 8 million draws, but if you had 8 million sets in 1 draw, you would win. It would be like waiting for the number 40 to appear from a draw with 100 numbers. It could well take more than 100 draws to win.

This is whay having 50 sets in 1 draw would be fractionally better than 1 set in 50 draws.

Ghetto Cornetto

Overheal wrote: »

I would tell you but it the loophole would probably get closed up as fast as when I got high and started harping on about that site that used to mail **** from canada. And now I dont smoke anymore, but still! That was the wrong thing to do.

YOU KILLED THE BEST SITE ON THE INTERTUBES!

OutlawPete

seamus wrote: »

Yes, but probability also allows for calculation beforehand of multiple events occurring.

Precisely and when discussing this you will always get those who will refuse to see anything other than: 'They are independent events the odds of you winning doesn't change as past draws have no bearing on future ones' and while that is the case, it's not always relevant. I think what people need to be clear on is that there is a difference between the probability of winning the lotto twice and winning the lotto again. One is 66 Trillion to 1 and the other remains the same.

seamus wrote: »

So in reality, the odds are so astronomically large that the difference between 52 lines in one day or 52 lines in 52 weeks are negligibly small. But if you want to get technical, 52 lines in one week has a vaguely better chance.

Yup, the two figures I came up where:

52 Lines ONE Draw = 0.00000638423 78079473

52 Draws One Line = 0.00000638421 76127046

yammycat

OutlawPete wrote: »

Yup, the two figures I came up where:

52 Lines ONE Draw = 0.00000638423 78079473

52 Draws One Line = 0.00000638421 76127046

If you lodge the money for 52 draws in a savings account and withdraw the price of a draw each week come the end of the year you might have earned enough interest to do a 53rd draw for free which would be better odds than
52 lines one draw I think.

Worztron

Does it matter if you fold the lotto ticket in half to fit in a pocket?

Worztron

What percentage of jackpot winners chose their own numbers compared to quick pick winners?

What percentage of the price of a lotto ticket do the shop keepers get?