Will Ireland qualify for Euro 2012?

Warper

Well, what do you think of our chances? Poll to be added

master-t

No, beaten in the playoffs

I think we will via the playoffs....but we won't make it easy on ourselves, we never do.

But I am confident enough we have the squad to make it out of the group.

joe123

No, beaten in the playoffs

If im not mistake Russia have nearly all home games left so I cant see them not winning the group.

We should make the playoffs but its a lottery then really.

keano_afc

Play off heartache again I think.

major bill

I feel we have a good chance...the russia game was terrible but we have gone to both armenia and slovakia and got results, id be confident of beaten both sides at home. Russia away i dont think people are expecting too much but if we can get the 3 points in our favourite place skopje then i think we have a great chance as one of the automatic second spot places.

Liam O

sugarman wrote: »

Looking at the standings of all the other groups, theres actually a good chance we could automatically qualify through 2nd place if we win our remaining games yet lose away to Russia.

you'd have to take out the points against Andorra for Ireland as they wont count...

Xavi6

Lose in the playoffs

SantryRed

6 points from our last 5. Could they qualify with that?

major bill

Liam O wrote: »

you'd have to take out the points against Andorra for Ireland as they wont count...

yea forgot about that which means montenegro are the best second place as there is only 5 in the group.

i reckon realistically and if we had abit of positivity about us we could scrape 13 points from our last 5 games

Dont be at yourself

No, not even a playoff spot

The group is there for the taking IMO. Russia aren't close to being the force they were a few years ago, and Slovakia aren't a great team.

OK, neither are we, but I think we're getting better. Our squad is a lot healthier than it was even 12 months ago, with the emergence of McCarthy, Coleman and Clarke. Even if they're not starting every game, they're increasing competition and giving us more options. Duff is playing his best football in years. McGeady is starting to fulfill his promise. The squad is fairly settled and getting more and more used to Trap's system.

Blatter

Is the play off draw seeded?

Dont be at yourself

No, not even a playoff spot

SOCCER4LIFE wrote: »

Is the play off draw seeded?

That'll be decided after the draw, probably

Blatter

NekkidBibleMan wrote: »

That'll be decided after the draw, probably

I will reserve judgement until then.

Hannibal

No, not even a playoff spot

Remaining fixtures are:

June 4th
Macedonia v Ireland
Russia v Armenia
Slovakia v Andorra

Sept 2nd
Andorra v Armenia
Ireland v Slovakia
Russia v Macedonia

Sept 6th
Macedonia v Andorra
Russia v Ireland
Slovakia v Armenia

Oct 7th
Andorra v Ireland
Armenia v Macedonia
Slovakia v Russia

Oct 11th
Macedonia v Slovakia
Ireland v Armenia
Russia v Andorra

It would be typical of Ireland to slip up at home against Armenia on the last day

Kidchameleon

No, not even a playoff spot

SOCCER4LIFE wrote: »

Is the play off draw seeded?

From Wikipedia:

After confusion caused by the UEFA play-offs for 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifying - which was originally to be an unseeded draw, but was seeded by FIFA in September 2009 - UEFA have announced that the draw for the play-offs will be seeded. The four runners-up with the best positions in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system will be seeded and will play their second legs at home. Each nation's coefficient and ranking position for the draw and final Euro 2012 draw will be calculated per results up to and including 11 October 2011

major bill

sugarman wrote: »

Is that how it works? Do they not lose their points gained against wales just because there are only 5 teams in their group? Thats completely unfair if so.

Also on another note, Montenegro would be a HORRIBLE play off draw for us.

quote from the uefa guidelines on the tournament ''7.06 To determine the best runner-up, only results against the teams in first, third, fourth
and fifth place are taken into account, with the following criteria being taken into
consideration in the order given:
a) higher number of points obtained in these matches;
b) superior goal difference from these matches;
c) higher number of goals scored in these matches;
d) higher number of away goals scored in these matches

page 13 http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefa/Others/91/48/36/914836_DOWNLOAD.pdf

No, beaten in the playoffs

I think Ireland will qualify via the playoffs this time.

blockedPaT

No, beaten in the playoffs

Yes, go trough the playoffs

Idbatterim

that missed penalty against slovakia and macedonia missing one against russian do not help!

major bill

sugarman wrote: »

Yes i read that. I was asking if thats for all groups or is it just for those with 6 teams in them, does it apply to those with 5?

If so, its fair play to everyone as nearly all the runners up will have a 2 out of 2 win against the minnows of their groups.

i.e we lose 6pts taken from Andora (a group with 6 teams) & Montenegro lose their 6pts from wins against Wales (Group with 5 teams)

dont think it does apply to the groups with 5 as wales would have had a bigger seeding than andorra and would be considered a much better side so it would have been much harder for a team in a group of 5 to get as much points as a team in a group of 6.

noodler

sugarman wrote: »

I reckon the only way we'll get there is via the play-offs & so long as they're not seeded like the worldcup last time arround.

Ideally we need to see Russia & Slovakia drop points along the way. I can see the group go right down to the last bunch of games tho.

Kidchameleon wrote: »

From Wikipedia:

After confusion caused by the UEFA play-offs for 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifying - which was originally to be an unseeded draw, but was seeded by FIFA in September 2009 - UEFA have announced that the draw for the play-offs will be seeded. The four runners-up with the best positions in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system will be seeded and will play their second legs at home. Each nation's coefficient and ranking position for the draw and final Euro 2012 draw will be calculated per results up to and including 11 October 2011

There needs to be a legal challenge to that seeded play-off stuff.

It completely flys in the face of fair play.

sonic85

we might not make it out of the group. even if we do we wont make it through the play-offs

Blatter

Assuming we finish in the play offs, as It's unlikely we will beat Russia in Moscow, these are our likely potential opponents, these teams should

Belgium OR Turkey OR Austria

Belarus OR Bosnia&H OR Albania

Greece OR Croatia OR Georgia OR Israel

Montenegro

Norway OR Portugal OR Denmark

Czech Republic

1)The countries there that are highly likely to be seeded in the higher bracket are Portugal, Turkey, Greece, Denmark.

2)The countries there that are in the mix to be seeded in the higher bracket are Belgium, Israel, Czech Republic, Croatia, Austria

3)The counties there that are highly likely to be seeded in the lower bracket are Ireland, Albania, Bosnia, Georgia, Montenegro, Norway.

That means our most likely play off game would be against 1) and 2)

Portugal
Turkey
Greece
Denmark
Belgium
Israel
Czech Republic
Croatia
Austria


All hypothetical if we were to finish second of course.

sonic85

the only team i wouldnt mind facing out of that lot would be austria. not an easy game by any means but the rest would be unbelievably tricky

Blatter

sonic85 wrote: »

the only team i wouldnt mind facing out of that lot would be austria. not an easy game by any means but the rest would be unbelievably tricky

I agree, I don't know why people are confident we will at least get through the play offs, we would be probably underdogs against all of those with the possible exceptions of Austria and Israel.

TheEscapist

I think it will once again be playoff heartache just because I think we'll get a tough team. But if we're lucky and get a good draw you never know.

Dolph Starbeam

No, beaten in the playoffs

I think we will qualify through the Play-Offs, Its hard to tell now obviously as we don't know who we'd face.

Saying that I still have not given up hope if winning this group, Russia are not a brilliant side and 3 games in a row now have failed to score, September is a long way away though so who knows how we or them will be playing come then. It's going to be a huge few days though.

Hank_Jones

I'd say if we do end up in the playoffs, we won't qualify.

Holding out hope that we put in a great performance against Russia and qualify top of the group.

Raekwon

Realistically I'd say we will be beaten in the play-off's but we do have an outside chance of qualifying if Trap can get his personal and formations right because are group isn't all that great.

Okay Russia did beat us convincingly in Dublin but aren't really a great side and there current form reflects that (draws vs Qatar & Armenia and defeats to Belgium & Iran). Slovakia are even worse! Yes they had a decent World Cup but they have only won once since then and that was a poor 1-0 vs Andorra, and apart from a 1-1 draw with ourselves they have been beat at home by Denmark & Bosnia and were embarrassed by both Armenia & Luxenbourg away.

Paully D

Beaten in the play-offs unfortunately.

Jordonvito

No, beaten in the playoffs

Fortunately it looks as if most of the bigger nations will finish top, I think Portugal are struggling but that's it.
But I think an automatic play/off place is there for the taking , a win in Skopje will be crucial though, Russia are not all that either (drew with Qatar tonight), I'd be fairly confident of getting a draw out of that (unbeaten in away games under Trap),

edolan

Hopefully not so Trap will get the boot.

partyndbs

hes gone anyway man after euro 2012 no way hell be around 4 brazil

tolosenc

No, beaten in the playoffs

We've a reasonable chance of being seeded for the playoffs, actually. We have a coefficient of 16, which'll only improve if we get the 13 points were capable of getting from the next 5 games.

If we were to switch out Russia for Ireland in the current scheme of things, we'd get one of: Sweden, Slovenia, Belarus, Belgium.

BUT...

If we win in Macedonia and get a result in the Aviva against Slovakia, a draw in Moscow would be an amazing result. It'd leave us with a trip to Barcelona for what should be a certain 3 points while Russia will be in Slovakia. If they fail to win, we'll need a win against Armenia to guarantee qualification. Very doable.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

If Trap stops persisting with Kilbane and Gibson I think we can top the group.

GavRedKing

No, beaten in the playoffs

I think we'll come second and qualify via the playoffs.

tdv123

Yes, via the playoffs

Well from what I've seen from us we just don't look good enough to qualify IMO.

I think if Macedonia had played the first half the same way they did in the second half on Saturday they would have beaten us. We looked as if we were the away side for most of the match.

Gibson is just useless. Didnt actually notice he was on the pitch until he got subbed off.

KungPao

No, not even a playoff spot

Dotsey wrote: »

Remaining fixtures are:

June 4th
Macedonia v Ireland
Russia v Armenia
Slovakia v Andorra

Sept 2nd
Andorra v Armenia
Ireland v Slovakia
Russia v Macedonia

Sept 6th
Macedonia v Andorra
Russia v Ireland
Slovakia v Armenia

Oct 7th
Andorra v Ireland
Armenia v Macedonia
Slovakia v Russia

Oct 11th
Macedonia v Slovakia
Ireland v Armenia
Russia v Andorra

Looking at this I reckon if we feck up in the Macedonia away match or Slovakia at home, and we HAVE to get a result in Moscow, then I wouldn't fancy our chances of even making the playoffs.

But if we were to win in Macedonia and not lose against Slovakia and the Russia game was a potential decider for group winner, rather than a must-win to keep our chances alive kind of game...then I'd be optimistic....Of course Slovakia could do the business too and be top of the pile.

But I feel if we keep it together for the rest of the campaign, others could lose points elsewhere...and we could very well top the group.

v3ttel

Realistically, I think we won't qualify for two main reasons:

1. Our inability to trust our promising players (Clark, McCarthy, Coleman), instead preferring the likes of Kilbane, Green, etc.

2. FIFA's scandalous rigging of the playoff draw. Fair play my f*cking hole. So, you give a country like France an advantage by seeding them highly in the draw, and then if they f*ck it up, you give them ANOTHER advantage by ranking them for the playoffs? Absolutely laughable. Totally, totally anti-fair play.

The playoffs are our best method of getting to the finals, and the odds have been firmly stacked against us there. There needs to be a legal challenge. All the odds are stacked in favour of the bigger nations.

noodler

Rooney10 wrote: »

FIFA's scandalous rigging of the playoff draw. Fair play my f*cking hole. So, you give a country like France an advantage by seeding them highly in the draw, and then if they f*ck it up, you give them ANOTHER advantage by ranking them for the playoffs? Absolutely laughable. Totally, totally anti-fair play.

The playoffs are our best method of getting to the finals, and the odds have been firmly stacked against us there. There needs to be a legal challenge. All the odds are stacked in favour of the bigger nations.

Really, I think something has to be done about this. The FAI need to argue the case with other smaller countries in UEFA. It is of no use to moan about it once we have been beaten in a play-off.

eugeneious

No, not even a playoff spot

I really think we'll win the group. Russia are a team in free-fall with a lot of criticism for Advocaat and big players such as Arshavin. Only drew with Qatar yesterday and really don't look convincing in any match just look how poor they looked when Ireland eventually got their finger out against them. If we win against Slovakia and Macedonia I think we'll finish top regardless of result in Moscow as Russia will definitely drop other points IMO.

Zonda999

Rooney10 wrote: »

Realistically, I think we won't qualify for two main reasons:

1. Our inability to trust our promising players (Clark, McCarthy, Coleman), instead preferring the likes of Kilbane, Green, etc.

2. FIFA's scandalous rigging of the playoff draw. Fair play my f*cking hole. So, you give a country like France an advantage by seeding them highly in the draw, and then if they f*ck it up, you give them ANOTHER advantage by ranking them for the playoffs? Absolutely laughable. Totally, totally anti-fair play.

The playoffs are our best method of getting to the finals, and the odds have been firmly stacked against us there. There needs to be a legal challenge. All the odds are stacked in favour of the bigger nations.

I'm surprised(and disappointed) there hasn't been more made of this since when they announced this was gonna be the case for the Euro 2012 Qualifiers, it is openly corrupt, even if i were from a "bigger country" (in fifa's eyes), i think i'd find it completely unfair.

There was no need for UEFA to follow FIFA's lead on this, the WC is a fifa competitin, Euro 2012 is not, but then again UEFA and FIFA may as well be the same organisation at tbhis stage

And while i'm at it, the way Sepp Blatters been in charge of FIFA for donkey years is akin to a dictatorship. Want a guaranteed bet? Michel Platini will be the next FIFA president, all he has to do is continue as he's doing

Rant over

And back to the point, i reckon we'll probably make it to the playoff's and then get beaten, although given the nature of last nights performance against Uruguay, we do have the ability to beat big teams

partyndbs

wudnt call uruguay a big team at all, bout our level(yeah they got to semis so could ireland with same draw and luck)

Dean820

partyndbs wrote: »

wudnt call uruguay a big team at all, bout our level(yeah they got to semis so could ireland with same draw and luck)

Their forward line is top class. The rest of the team is about Ireland's level.

partyndbs

ye

Idbatterim

if we dont qualify, or finnish second in the group, Im sure we will look back at always as how the group was there for the taking, and one or two mistakes that cost us qualification... Like Keanes miss against Slovakia or the freak Russian barrage in the Aviva...

Son Of A Vidic

I reckon we'll have more pathetic 'glorious' failure in the Play-offs.

dixiefly

No, beaten in the playoffs

Lastnights game (as opposed to the Macedonia one) has left me more confident that we can do it via the playoffs.

tim_holsters

With Trap as manager we will not qualify for anything.

bonerm

Yes, via the playoffs

partyndbs wrote: »

wudnt call uruguay a big team at all, bout our level

Forlan, Suarez, Cavani, Perez, Lugano, Abel Hernandez. Any of these could walk right into the Ireland team and up it by about 25%-50% each.

Don't be fooled by a score of 2-3. They would have beaten us about about 5 yesterday if they'd had to.

(yeah they got to semis so could ireland with same draw and luck)

How? Winning games usually involves some sort of attacking ambition and defensive prowess. Ireland repeatedly demonstrate neither for anything other than brief moments.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

tim_holsters wrote: »

With Trap as manager we will not qualify for anything.

I hate his dinosaur tactics, I hate his dire squad selections, I hate his infuriating persistance with central midfielders who treat the ball like a hot potato, and I'm sure we would do better with a more modern manager, however the bottom line are the results and until we fall out of contention I don't think he's done quite enough to warrant a dismissal. But I certainly wouldn't complain if he went...