2011 Tornado Season Thread

maquiladora

Total of 20 tornado reports from yesterday (red dots) :



There are still some tornado watches in effect as the storm line moves towards the coast.

SPC is going for a Slight Risk today and the same for Thursday.

Iancar29

I was Surprised not seeing many chasers on yesterday ... Maybe because it was the start of a working week, but ye , hope I didn't miss any of those reported tornadoes on any streams when I went off.

Next real good day looks to be Friday if the models keep hold, dry line making a big impact b4 a cold front plows right through.

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

I was Surprised not seeing many chasers on yesterday ... Maybe because it was the start of a working week, but ye , hope I didn't miss any of those reported tornadoes on any streams when I went off.

Next real good day looks to be Friday if the models keep hold, dry line making a big impact b4 a cold front plows right through.

Yeah you'll always see more chasers out on the weekend or when there is a Severe Risk.

I see the SPC is going for a Severe on Sunday but that could downgrade by the time that comes around.

M.T. Cranium

Also, many don't like to chase in AR, TN, KY, OH or MS, LA because there are so many trees compared to the plains states further north and west. In the main storm chase season, given a choice, most teams will take a slight risk in open country over a high risk in the more forested deep south.

I think there are some big tornado days coming up in the plains states on the weekend.

Iancar29

Latest SWODY4-8 Just coming out now is Showing Saturday as "Severe" as expected, Sunday a tad further east again in the Dixie Valleys. Much further ahead to next Tuesday shows another Strongish Trough ejecting across the Plains just in time for the first Brit Chasing Teams arrival, they must be salivating at the Outlook at the moment!

Thursday sees me at the Moment on the KS/OK Border but not expecting much in the way of Tornado activity.

Friday at the moment I like just North of Oklahoma City (Subject to change obviously)

Saturday looking like another Emporia to western MO Day.

After that would possibly be good for Southern Illinois on Sunday .

It's like May already out there

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Latest SWODY4-8 Just coming out now is Showing Saturday as "Severe" as expected, Sunday a tad further east again in the Dixie Valleys. Much further ahead to next Tuesday shows another Strongish Trough ejecting across the Plains just in time for the first Brit Chasing Teams arrival, they must be salivating at the Outlook at the moment!

Thursday sees me at the Moment on the KS/OK Border but not expecting much in the way of Tornado activity.

Friday at the moment I like just North of Oklahoma City (Subject to change obviously)

Saturday looking like another Emporia to western MO Day.

After that would possibly be good for Southern Illinois on Sunday .

It's like May already out there

That sounds like Paul from NW?

Yeah interesting few days ahead, Slight Risks for Thursday & Friday and then a Severe Risk weekend.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

That sounds like Paul from NW?

Yeah interesting few days ahead, Slight Risks for Thursday & Friday and then a Severe Risk weekend.

Oh ye haha.... i forgot to put in the " ... " ....... haha

U on NW Maq?

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Oh ye haha.... i forgot to put in the " ... " ....... haha

U on NW Maq?

I have a wee lurk on there sometimes but thats about it. :pac:

BEASTERLY

Iancar29 wrote: »

Oh ye haha.... i forgot to put in the " ... " ....... haha

U on NW Maq?

I wondered how you got NW emoticons on boards.ie lol, never even crossed my mind that it was copied:rolleyes:

Iancar29

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I wondered how you got NW emoticons on boards.ie lol, never even crossed my mind that it was copied:rolleyes:

haha... i promise i really did forget to put in the quotations!.... PLEASE BELIEVE ME!!! .......:(

ha

BEASTERLY

Iancar29 wrote: »

haha... i promise i really did forget to put in the quotations!.... PLEASE BELIEVE ME!!! .......:(

ha

yeah right, you tought we didnt go on NW so you chanced it! Typical! Only joking!:pac:

I dont even go into the NW forum , my involvement in the climate section ended my time there:(. The site overall is still a very good one.

Iancar29

"Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
Friday-Sunday look HUGE. NEVER STOP CHASING!"

Brilliant thread lads/ ladies Just back from tornadic weather meself. Brilliant enjoyed every bit of it.
Didnt get pics, cos I was going to buy camera over there, only couldnt get to the shops because of the bleedin weather Saw some magnificent forked lightning over the bay. Thunder was fierce, like there was a great battle of iron behemoths in the sky. Loved it. Sat on the balcony and watched every bit.
Id love to go for hurricane season next .


Heres a slideshow from the local news, if anyone interested.


http://www.baynews9.com/article/news/2011/march/225230/Wednesdays-weather-causes-damage-throughout-area

maquiladora

SPC has a Slight Risk for today and tomorrow.
Saturday has been downgraded to Slight now too.
Sunday is still pegged as Severe.

eskimocat

I was wondering if the forecasting of suitable tornado weather 3 or 4 days in advance is the same as reading the FI charts? Do they more regularly get down graded, rather than up graded?

maquiladora

eskimocat wrote: »

I was wondering if the forecasting of suitable tornado weather 3 or 4 days in advance is the same as reading the FI charts? Do they more regularly get down graded, rather than up graded?

I've seen Day 1 forecasts go from Slight to Severe on the day itself.

Iancar29

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT THU APR 07 2011

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
07/00Z GFS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE WRN TROUGH TRACKING
THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND REACHING THE MID SOUTH TO WRN GREAT
LAKES BY THE END OF DAY 4 /12Z MON APR 11/. WHILE EACH MODEL
MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS SYSTEM ON DAY 5 /MON APR
11/...THE GFS INDICATES THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED MOVING
INTO THE NERN STATES. THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD IS SLOWER
WITH EWD MOVEMENT WITH A MORE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH.
THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ATTENDANT TO THIS ERN TROUGH ON DAY 5 RESULT
IN VARYING MAGNITUDES OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES...AND THE SUBSEQUENT EWD MOVEMENT OF A PACIFIC TROUGH FROM
THE WEST COAST TO MS VALLEY NEXT WEEK.

...DAY 4 /SUN APR 10/...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN LA TO
IA AND EWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND PART OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
REMAINS VERY LIKELY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK AREA...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM WRN KS INTO IA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE PLAINS DRY LINE WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING
INITIALLY FROM ERN OK TO WRN IA. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE START OF DAY 4 AND SUPPORT
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS ACROSS THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE BOTH LINE SEGMENTS
AND SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY SPREADING TO THE MS VALLEY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE TO
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS A BROAD SWLY LLJ /50-70 KT/ DEVELOPS
FROM THE MID SOUTH TO OH VALLEY AND A SQUALL LINE ADVANCES EWD FROM
THE MS VALLEY.

maquiladora

SPC is going for a Moderate Risk on Sunday now, with a chance of strong tornadoes.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

SPC is going for a Moderate Risk on Sunday now, with a chance of strong tornadoes.

Woo! i hav sunday off work ......to ehhh.... STUDY! ha ... glad that i do my study... on the computer! haha

maquiladora

Buckle up....

SPC has issued a Moderate Risk for both today and tomorrow now. And it looks like there will be an upgrade to High Risk on Sunday...

...SYNOPSIS...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST SATURDAY WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHERE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...SEWD INTO SC.

And for Sunday....

...TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO IA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CELLS WILL FIRST DEVELOP IN NRN IA AND
SE MN AND MOVE INTO NRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TRACK
OF A SFC LOW AND ALONG A WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR
THE WARM FRONT SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 60 KT AND 0-3 STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 250 TO 350
M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WITH CELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWD ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN IA NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL WI BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. A
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MOVES ENEWD ACROSS WI. SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN AND WRN IL WHERE THE
STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE A TORNADO...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE THREAT
DURING THE EVENING.

Iancar29

Goin out 2nite so won't get a chance to watch anything online

So keep posting update for me please! , I can go on this easily enough on my iPhone .

I'm off 2moro ... Gonna be studying all day then virtual chasing all nite ha ! Woo!

Oh ye... 40 days!!

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Goin out 2nite so won't get a chance to watch anything online

So keep posting update for me please! , I can go on this easily enough on my iPhone .

I'm off 2moro ... Gonna be studying all day then virtual chasing all nite ha ! Woo!

Oh ye... 40 days!!

On an uberslow connection for today so won't be watching any of the live streams tonight. Tomorrow looks like being a very interesting day though, will be following that closely.

maquiladora

27 Tornado Reports recorded last night in IA. Stove pipe and large wedge tornadoes seen. Numerous accounts of buildings damaged but thankfully nobody killed afaik.

SPC is going for Moderate Risk again for today :

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO ARKLATEX...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODE...INCLUDING FAST MOVING
SUPERCELLS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...WILL EXIST FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN INTO WI.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

27 Tornado Reports recorded last night in IA. Stove pipe and large wedge tornadoes seen. Numerous accounts of buildings damaged but thankfully nobody killed afaik.

SPC is going for Moderate Risk again for today :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40wYkBRtXjE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJnT30THHaU

Iancar29

Reed's one is epic! , the nite time shots remind me of Twister the film!

http://www.spc.noaa....outlook/pwo.mp4

SPC experimental weather briefing. Good to see and hear

Iancar29

Looks like its gonna be another good nite for virtual chasing!

Iancar29

Reed seems to be on the right track, in position where the first tornado warning has just been issued.


http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

M.T. Cranium

Here's your radar link for tornadic storms now developing in western parts of Wisconsin and extreme southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=arx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Ruu_Old

Parts of central Illinois are under a tornado watch right now.

maquiladora

Another Moderate Risk this evening.
Two Tornado Watches in effect atm.