100 Bets to Broke Again Flat & Last of the Jumps

longshotvalue

Ripon 2:30

Chosen One: He rattled of a few 5f sprints last year in may on Good-firm and this is a similiar race today, he is of a slightly higher mark (3lbs) than the last of his wins last year, but has run well on a few occasions of higher marks than today since. He ran a reasonable last race when didnt quite stay the 5f on good-soft, and can only get better with that run. He looks overpriced at 20/1

2 Points Each Way 20/1 Laddies and a few more

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totescoop6 Spring Cup Handicap Newbury 3:45

Night Lily: Im looking for one on the far side of the draw to my other selection here and she has improved considerably on the AW last 2 runs, particulary when just failing to win a listed race in Kempton last time. Here she split 2 horses rated 94 and 92 and is in here today of 82: If she can transfer that improvement in form over to the turf the 18/1 available with bet365 paying 5 places is going to look far too big.

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Bet365 12345

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2:50 Ayr

Overturn: Im surprised he is available here at 6/1. He will love the ground track and ran up to his mark here in the Champion hurdle despite making the pace for Peddlers. He still ran well and may have been closer only for getting cut off going round the last bend. I had figured he was more of a 4/1 chance so i have to be on at that price. Gone and not getting caught hopefully


3 Points win 6/1 Bet365

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bet365 Gold Cup Chase

Fire & Rain, looks the ideal candidate for this race , he won the summer national on good ground 2 years ago, and has had one prep run over hurdles this year. The trainer was hoping he would get in and he looks surprisingly overpriced. He has had only 1 run this year and obviously had trainign problems but being fresh can only be an advantage here.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 Ladbrokes

FAASEL: Ive been a fan of this horse for a while but he does tend to dissapoint a lot, he has run well over long trips on good ground ( trice and the Festival) and im finding it very difficult to knock him out of the places here. He has a very good claimer on and hopefully will be running on late to snatch win or place. A lot of the other horses just dont give me any reason to think he wont be placed.

2 Points Each way 20/1 VC and Stanjames

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4:50 Sandown:

Freemont, he ran a decent race in the Lincoln and ive always tought he has a bit more to offer. Hopefully he starts his improvement today and he looks value at 14 on betfair in this lower class event. He might just have enough class to win this.

3 Points win 14 Betfair

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Haydock 2:20

Maoi Chinn Tire : Won a listed hurdle on his debut at a huge price, and has benn found out in graded company since. But he did run better last time, and is back on Good Ground here which should suit considering it was good when he won on debut. He just looks a bit overpriced in this handicap where his mark is a touch high , but he does get the 4yo allowence. Looks overpriced at 18/1 to get places in this 8 runner race.

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Stan James

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aidankkk wrote: »

FAASEL: Ive been a fan of this horse for a while but he does tend to dissapoint a lot, he has run well over long trips on good ground ( trice and the Festival) and im finding it very difficult to knock him out of the places here. He has a very good claimer on and hopefully will be running on late to snatch win or place. A lot of the other horses just dont give me any reason to think he wont be placed.

2 Points Each way 20/1 VC and Stanjames

nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooo




I was sure he had it ahh well, super run tough.... Bloddy Poker de sivila coming from the clouds (epic peice of riding from Timmy Murphy in fairness)

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Haydock 2:20

Maoi Chinn Tire : Won a listed hurdle on his debut at a huge price, and has benn found out in graded company since. But he did run better last time, and is back on Good Ground here which should suit considering it was good when he won on debut. He just looks a bit overpriced in this handicap where his mark is a touch high , but he does get the 4yo allowence. Looks overpriced at 18/1 to get places in this 8 runner race.

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Stan James

nice 3rd:)

longshotvalue

Irish Grand National

A New Story: He has been placed an unbelivable 4 times in the national, and in my view his run this year at the festival was at least as good as last years considering his extra weight, and he finished best of all. It could take a bomb to knock him out of the places again this year as he sure to finish well when a lot of the untested younger horses are crying enough.

3 Points Each Way 33/1 paying 12345 various Paddy Power Etc..

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Muss 3:05

Chosen One: Has a decent record at the course should be better on good ground, and has a decent turnaround in the weights with horses ahead of him last time here on softer than ideal going. Looks a bit overprices at 20/1

1 Point win 20/1 Bet365 & Stanjames

Verance

RE Irish Grand National, will there be a Rule 4 if Beautiful Sound doesn't run?

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Fair 2:50

Rough Times: A repeat of his last run on good ground would give him an outstanding chance here. He was second to a subsequent winner in galway last year and ran a very good race. He has not been up to that class since on soft or worse ground and hopefully he can get back to form on good ground. Looks overpriced at 18.5 on Betfair.

1 Point win Betfair

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Grand National:

Sebadee: Looking around for a good ground younger horse to go along with my virtual Grandad selection in a New Story, i found this ones form appealing. He has virtually all his form on good or good-firm ground. His has run well is a couple of very decent novice chases, and in particular his second to Back of the pack looks very decent on Good-Firm. He has had a break and came back with another good run at the begining of April in a Grade 2 in April. He certainly could come on for that run and looks a great price at the moment at 50/1 EW on PaddyPower and others. There is just no way hes is the least likely to have a shot here, and his profile is similiar enough to some of the much better fancied younger horses here.

2 Points Each Way 50/1 Paddy power 12345

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5:30 Fair:

Norther Bay : This is a definate good ground horse, and looking back trough his form, what stands out when he last had a decent break was a very good run at limerick in good ground , when he looked a certain winner except for pecking badly at the last. Even his 3rd of 3 to loosen my load, looks half decent considering his rating here of 120. He has had a similiar break since his last run and that could be the key. He looks a bit overpriced on betfair at 22 win

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Irish Grand National

A New Story: He has been placed an unbelivable 4 times in the national, and in my view his run this year at the festival was at least as good as last years considering his extra weight, and he finished best of all. It could take a bomb to knock him out of the places again this year as he sure to finish well when a lot of the untested younger horses are crying enough.

3 Points Each Way 33/1 paying 12345 various Paddy Power Etc..

In fariness a great run again 5th... nice payout..

Johnny86

Hows your P/L with this thread Aidan?..what a horse New Story!!

longshotvalue

Johnny86 wrote: »

Hows your P/L with this thread Aidan?..what a horse New Story!!

Not sure yet, ill make it up tomorrow. certainly down maybe 10-20 points at least. But selecting longshots can take a bit of time for one to hit.. hopfully tomorrrow.

longshotvalue

Need one to rescue this tread

6:35 Fairyhouse

Cuan Na Grai: One of my favourite horses, and he has a lot in his favour here tomorrow. He loves good ground and 2m 1 is the right trip for him. He ran away with a good novice chase at Punchestown last year and then ran 2 very good races over hurdles. After this he ran poor enough in the Plate but he may not stay there. He runs well generally when fresh and there is no way he is a 14/1 shot for this race. The fav has gone up a lot in the weights and is 7lb out of the handicap ( cant understand that ). a lot of his rivals have various problem with going of ratings etc. I had tough before i saw the prices that anything above 6/1 would be good so 14/1 is class

2 Points Each way 14/1 Paddy Power

Id be very surprised if he goes of at anything bigger than 8/1

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7:15 Sedg.

Top Dressing: Last year he won a similiar race well of a much higher mark. He looks better on good ground and has been given a serious chance by the handicapper. he is in of 99 here and won last year of 109. On his good ground form he has a great chance. The stable is in better form of late.

2 Points win 8/1 Bet 365

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5:30 Fairyhouse:

Going to go a different way with this race and pick 2 who both look overpriced. Perfect Smile & Pineau De Re, are the joint highest rated in the race, and alltough there are a few improving types they both have solid form in higher grade races this year. Both will be suited to the Trip and Perfect smile should be suited by the ground while Pineau is unsure on this type of ground. Pineau 12/1 PP and Perfect Smile 14.0 on Betfair.

1 Point Win Each

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4:55 Fair

Tillahow: Not a lot of proven form in this race and he was one of the better of these on the flat. There is a chance he could be better here on good ground and he looks a bit overpriced on betfair at 50 win 10 place and is worth a small bet.

1 point win 1 Point place

longshotvalue

6:00 Fair

Dreamy Gent: Looks worth a small punt as he has the advanatage of a decent break. he is a good ground horse and is consistant in similiar races. He had a very good run on the flat recently and should be ready for this. He looks overpriced at 26 win on betfair

1 Point win Betfair

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2000 Guineas.

Roderic O'Connor: Frankel looks the obvious most likely winner here, but for a horse who may pull to hard in a strong race, he is not value. I liked the look of the selections run in the Dewhurst and it looked clearly the 2nd best performance of teh year from a 2yo . He led for most of theway but once passed he rallied again to close near the end. As a negative its his first run this year which has been a disadvantage from the stable, (altough not in this race as it happens). To me he look more like a 5/1 Second Fav shot rather than the 11.5 available on Betfair.

2 Points win Betfair 11.5 & 2 points W/o Fav on Betfair at 4.8

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3:45 Newmarket

Borderlescott: Very consistant in this type of race and 2nd in this last year to a superstar. He just looks well overpriced considering his consistancy. He doesnt seem to have as tough a race here as last year.

2 Points Each Way 12/1 Various VC bet365

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3:35 Thirsk

Dream Lodge: He has moved stable from last year, and ran poorly on his first start this year but, he is in here 10lbs or more lower than what he was regularly running well with last year , and any reproduction of form at all would give him a chance of placing. He looks a bit overpriced at 40/1 .

1 Point Each Way 40/1 VC Boyles

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2000 Guineas.

Just looking at it again, and Saamidd does look a bit overpriced. he was poor in the Dewhurst but he had a poor start and possibly didnt like the ground. His beating of Approve and Waiters Dream, does look good on second watch, andis he can get back to that witha bit of improvement he could be good value here. 32 win on betfair, dont really like his place price of 5.2 as much.

1 Point Win Betfair

longshotvalue

Shocking Tread ATM, in need on a winner badly so what better than a 27 runner 6 furlong sprint to find one.


3:50 Newmarket

Novellen Lad: He has a very good record fresh and his win at the beginning of last year added to his subsequent 2 runs in decent handicaps of 93 on Good-Firm ground put him in with a great shout here. He is in here of 87 after some poorer runs of softer than ideal ground towards the end of last year. He looks overpriced here at 20/1 EW Paddy Power Paying 5 places. Hard to know what to think of the draw in 6 but ill probably go for another one at the other side as well.

2 Points Each Way 20/1 PP 12345

Barney McGrew: Even tough he is near top weight here, he has been running well at Mayden this year and certainly ran to higher marks last year when taking on a higher level. He loves the fast ground and look a bit of value to place at 18/1 with Bet365 paying 5 places. he is drawn in 18 so give me one at each side.

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Bet365 12345

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3:50 Curragh

Erins Gal : Going to give this one a tiny chance at a huge price. The manner of his 4th in his last maiden looked to indicate a step up in trip would be better. Hes had a not so awful run in a handicap over a too short 5f this year,and hopefully can improve a bit here of a very low mark. Betfair 100 win 12 place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

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Punchestown 4:20

Il Fenomeno: this looks a weak enough Grade 1 and as far as i can see the rest of the field have differant problems, like wrong ground, running too soon after aintree or usual poor form after running at cheltenham. This one started in a Grade 2 Hurdle and ran with great credit behind Ratlin who was 2nd, he wasnt really asked for much and normal improvement could easily bring him into the rekoning here. The trainer has a great record in this race. Looks way overpriced at 25/1 with Coral and Stan James

2 Points win 25/1 Coral / Stan James

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Not going well at the moment:

Chester Cup Tomorrow

Hala San: He was 3rd in this last year of the same mark, and the first 2 are worse off at the weights. He really caught the eye last time when he got very unlucky in running and finished well in 4th. He is more than double the price of the first 2 last year and he has been super consistant in this type of race, including a 3rd the year before last in this race as well. Look well overpriced at 25/1 and cant go of at that price

2 Points Each way 25/1 VC and bet365