100 Bets to Broke Again Flat & Last of the Jumps

longshotvalue

Newbury 2:35

Juud Street: Going to go for a small win get at huge odds. He should like the conditions here and has plummetted down the weights.

1 Point win Betfair 60

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3:45 Newbury


Balthazaar's Gift: He look well overpriced to place here, hes a solid horse and has looked as if he might be decent over a mile. 13.5 to place looks a few points too big for me here.

1 Point Place 123 13.5 Betfair

longshotvalue

Advanced nearly done it for me yesterday, ahh well.. Shocking Tread really.


3:25 Killarney

Silk Hall: Clutching at straws atm, but I recon he has been given a chance by the handicapper here. His first run in a year was in a very hot race in fairyhouse, and altough he was well down the field he was surrounded by much higher rated horses and he has been dropped by 9lbs. That run doesnt look too bad considering he did travel well and didnt find a lot near the end, the step back in trip should help today. He also has a 5lbs claimer on today. He was a very good 4yo hurdler 2 years ago and if he can recapture any of that at all hell have a chance of this mark.

1 Point Each way 50/1 Bet 365

I may add a point leter if he gets to a rediculus price on betfair closer to the off.

longshotvalue

3:40 Ripon

Collateral Damage: I think his last run showed that a return to form may not be that far off. He was out the back at chester and making a decent run but got badly hampered at the wrong time and was eased after that, but still finished stongly enough. He has been dropped 3lbs for that and it might just put him in with a shout here. 85 is his lowest mark for a long time and 7lbs below his highest winning mark. He has won with the jockey before and looks value at 25/1 with Paddy Power

2 Points Each Way 25/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue

Sportingbet.com Sprint Handicap York 3:40

Waffle: Although a shorter than my usual bet in this type of Sprint Handicap, I feel he has been unlucky in all his runs this year against very good types and of his current mark of 100 he can finally get it right here with nothing like Hamish McGonagall or Horseradish here to reappose . He should go off at about half his current odds of 9/1 he looks value from a middle draw.


3 Points win

Abu Dhabi Irish 2,000 Guineas Curragh 3:45

Roderic O'Connor: Although he was firmly put in his place by Frankel at Newmarket, I felt there is an overreaction here to that run. He did try to go with him early and paid for that later on in the race. His run when second to Frankel in last years Dewhurst was the best looking run by one from the current crop other than his conqueror, and if he can benefit from his first run as all Aidan O’Brien’s runners invariably do he can get back on track here at what might look like a decent price tomorrow. He is 7/2 to win at the moment


4 Points Win

Crabbie's 'Tickety Boo' Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap Chester 4:00

Coronal Mak: He just looks overpriced here. He has come down a few pounds and his last run was encouraging, in that he finished well . With that in mind he might just be suited to the step up in trip and is well drawn in 4. 27.0 to win and 6.4 place on betfair looks generous. He was a big improver last year and hopefully he can get of the mark here for this season.


2 Points win 2 points Place

longshotvalue

Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap 2:30

Sonning Rose: She looks to be given a slight chance by the handicapper here. Her last run was poor enough but she was surrounded by horses rated over 100 and is in here of 92. She appeared to loose interest at one stage last time and the step up in trip should suit as she ran a good race last year over 1mile in the May hill. Any return to form at all would give here a great chance in this handicap. She looks overpriced at 85 win 12 place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place.

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Betfred The Bonus King Stakes Haydock 3:30

Show Rainbow: Her run in the Neil Gwen looked very good and the form has been franked since. In that race she looked as if a step back in trip will suit and on ratings she is in with a chance of placing. In not sure a lot of the opposition has as much potential for improvement and she looks overpriced at 18/1

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Coral

longshotvalue

Hampshire Society Handicap Goodwood 2:15

Parisian Pyramid: He has a hell of a lot in his favour here. he has been running well this year, particulary last time over too long a trip and considering he is down another pound for that, he really has to be in the rekoning here on the right ground and trip in a much weaker race. He should have a bit of class to space over this field and look value at 6/1.

3 Points Win 6/1

longshotvalue

Sportingbet.com Sprint Handicap York 3:40

Hotham: Im going to give him a shot here at possibly his fav course. he has a few times in the past won after poor runs at a big price and it would be dangerous not to select him at big odds here, after selecting his in his last couple of runs. He is now lower than both of his wins last year. He must strike at some stage.

1 Point Each way 50/1 Bet 365

longshotvalue

Abu Dhabi Irish 2,000 Guineas Curragh 3:45

Roderic O'Connor: Although he was firmly put in his place by Frankel at Newmarket, I felt there is an overreaction here to that run. He did try to go with him early and paid for that later on in the race. His run when second to Frankel in last years Dewhurst was the best looking run by one from the current crop other than his conqueror, and if he can benefit from his first run as all Aidan O’Brien’s runners invariably do he can get back on track here at what might look like a decent price tomorrow. He is 7/2 to win at the moment


4 Points Win



Beauty... ended up going again at 5.7 on betfair.. Fair play to the other obrien blockers up the straight..

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Betfred The Bonus King Stakes Haydock 3:30

Show Rainbow: Her run in the Neil Gwen looked very good and the form has been franked since. In that race she looked as if a step back in trip will suit and on ratings she is in with a chance of placing. In not sure a lot of the opposition has as much potential for improvement and she looks overpriced at 18/1

2 Points Each Way 18/1 Coral

2nd

longshotvalue

Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas Curragh 4:15

Misty For me. She probably has the best form in the race apart from a poor enough run in Newmarket, but as with all of AOBs runners she should improve for that and does have the beating of a lot of these on her very solid looking win in the Moyglare last year. She looks overrpiced at 10/1 .

2 Points win 10/1

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas Curragh 4:15

Misty For me. She probably has the best form in the race apart from a poor enough run in Newmarket, but as with all of AOBs runners she should improve for that and does have the beating of a lot of these on her very solid looking win in the Moyglare last year. She looks overrpiced at 10/1 .

2 Points win 10/1

Thats more like it . very tough performance.

thesandeman

Nice. Bit of a gamble on it as well.

longshotvalue

Newmarket 4:05

Brave Echo: Won to decent races on the AW earlier this year and, then ran in 2 big turf handicaps where he ran ok . His mark here of 88 look attractive enough considering his last win on the AW rates him 96. Looks a bit overpriced here at 40 win 7.6 place considering he does have some decent turf form in the past.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

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3:30 Catterick

Al Muheer: I cant desert him now even tough he has moved stable which is dissapointing, his mark is very low and ive stuck my neck out saying he'll win this year at a good price and this is a big step down in class. Has one half decent run this year when midfield in the spring cup over a trip to far. Hopefully today is the day. He also has a good 3lbs claimer on.

3 Points Win 12/1

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

Newmarket 4:05

Brave Echo: Won to decent races on the AW earlier this year and, then ran in 2 big turf handicaps where he ran ok . His mark here of 88 look attractive enough considering his last win on the AW rates him 96. Looks a bit overpriced here at 40 win 7.6 place considering he does have some decent turf form in the past.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

I'm a big fan of this horse but he looks useless on a straight track. Not to mention Michael Attwaters horses are runnning awfully and then one pops up. I'll beck him next time he's on a turning track although it might just be that he needs the sand or a loose surface.

longshotvalue

3:35 Auteuil

Thousand Stars: He is one of the most consistant horses in training who is improveing with every run, and altough the Soft ground is not ideal here (altough its not as soft as it usually can be), i think he should clearly be favourite. The extra 5 furlongs should not be a problem and he could easily be a class above the rest.. 6.8 on betfair seems huge.

4 Points win 6.8 Betfair

longshotvalue

Nott 2:50

Star Rover: One of my fav horses, looks to have a squeek today. he has always looked best over 5, often weakening over 6f. But todays is a weaker race and he has proved consistant of his current mark. He just looked overpriced to have a good race today.

2 Points Each Way 20/1 Paddy Power


still 20/1 with Stan James Bet365

longshotvalue

On hols so a few quick ones today

Epson 2:10: Sowaylm looks overpriced of this mark and has ran well both time shes ran first time out. 90 doesnt look to be over difficult mark considering her 2nd to no hubris at the begining of last year. The least exposed in the field and 20/1 available with bet365 and coral looks decent.

2 Points EW

3:25 Ramona Chase: his 3rd over c&d earlier this yearreads wellin this similiar race. Hes got 2 lbs less and is certainly a course specialist. Bottom weight here and looks very good value to place.

2 Points EW 16/1 Bet365 Coral


Oaks: Misty for Me. Very solid looking win in the 1000 and should improve over further. Not much between the 2 classic winners on form so the 8/1 looks value here.

3 Points win 8/1

Why: Aob seems to always pull off a surprise placed runner is there races and the most likely here looks to be WHY. Debut maiden form just behind my other selection looks ok and step up in trip and good jockey booking might just scrape into a place. Betfair 150 win 18.5 place, or 100/1 in bookies

.5 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

few quick ones today , limited inet access.

Just saw a replay of St nich.... That was epic to beat a very consistant horse with the run he got. Could be anything and i rekon hell handle King george much better.

3:15 Epson

Masta Plasta: well capable of taking a hand here of this mark, was 5th last year with 5 lbs higher. Hell need to improve on this seasons form but might just be getting there at this stage.

2 pts EW 40/1 Stan James

3:40 Muss

Archers road: He has been very inconsistant sine his very good 2yo days, but his price here on betfair looks to big for him of this mark and the chance that hell put a good one in at some stage.

1 Point win 1 point place Betfair 60/9.2

Doncaster 2:50

Osteopathic Remedy : Has had a couple of decent runs this year over 6f and 8 of 2lbs higher and just looks a bit overpriced on betfair at 48 win 8.6 place. Very tight loioking race and might be worth a small bet.

1 Point win 1 point place Betfair 48/8.6

Derby

Hoping for an irish win but the Value may be Vadamar:he was touted as a star before his last run but was reported to have got a knock, and hopefully can improve on that run. He looks the only one of the outsiders that can cause a surprise, and may be overpriced at 20/1 with laddies.

2 Points each way 20/1 Lads.


5:25 Epson

Sonny Red: Very inconsistant horse but, he is back down to below his last very good run in the ayr silver cup, and his price is too big for his odds of putting in a decent run.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 55 win 9.6 place.

longshotvalue

Cant not back him now, he has to find his level and mark at some stage.

Al Muheer Redcar 3:35 . Betfair 27 win 5.9 place.

His trainer is in some form, and i recon our fate will be known very quick as he really doesnt look like he wants to race at all lately, but of this mark in this poorer race his chances of coming back to form might be better that 25/1 whcih makes him a bet today.

2 Points win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Time to close this disaster of a tread, with a lose of 100.80 points to advised and an even worse loss of -148.4 to BSP, the few winners i had were all hammered in price.

Didnt really knock in any big 50/1 shot in this tread which is the first time, but its easier said than done.

ill be starting a new tread today , which i will update more often, and give updates on how each horse runs etc, ill take a leaf out of pyros book..

Other Treads To date

Tread 1 100 bets NET BSP Profit of 115.72 pts
Tread 2 11 Bets "Heriatage Handicaps" BSP Profit of 15.08 pts
Tread 3 103 bets Net BSP Profit of 20.25
Tread 4 101 bets Net BSP Profit of 20.68
Tread 5 100 Bets Net BSP Profit of 186.41
Tread 6 111 Bets Net BSP loss of -148.4


Total Nett BSP 209.73 Point Profit
Total Nett Advised 243.73

Total Points Staked 1268

total ROI now for all treads is + 16.48% BSP and + 19.16 Advised, which is still not so bad really.