Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Unicorn Experiment Log

Options
24567…11

Comments

  • Options
    #32
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,032 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    jive wrote: »
    All advice and constructive criticism is MORE than welcome

    Since you aren't actually staking any real money yet, maybe you should track a few staking plans? One could be the one you're using now, another could be 1 point win & 1 point place and maybe even try dutching the place & win so that a place would return more money (although this would reduce any profit from winners).


  • Options
    #33
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    L'prof wrote: »
    Since you aren't actually staking any real money yet, maybe you should track a few staking plans? One could be the one you're using now, another could be 1 point win & 1 point place and maybe even try dutching the place & win so that a place would return more money (although this would reduce any profit from winners).

    Yeah I've been thinking that myself. Some of the horses shorten considerably before the off and I could lay them to at least save stake. Then you would essentially be free-rolling, although like you said profit would be reduced.

    Canaveral for example just went off at 14.5 (15 for lay) and 11 with bookies but was backed at 32. Didn't place though but a 1 point lay would have covered the stake and could have returned either +17 points profit or 0 point loss. I'm not sure what he was on the place market, though. Obviously this opportunity doesn't happen with every horse.

    I've plenty of thinking to do. I could also just place a win bet which would limit the losses but may also increase losing streaks. If I was able to lay the win later in the day to save stake this would be a good method but like I said that's not always the case. I might have a look at that for the rest of this week though to see if it's a possibility. I'm not sure dropping the place portion of the bet would be wise though given that I am getting some decent priced places. It's probably something worth looking at though.

    I would like to try the win / lay thing but it would be time consuming. I could back early then see what the lay price is just before the off though but would be unable to check regularly. Mind=blown at all the possibilities ha
    jive wrote: »
    Blue Spartan Windsor 18:20
    1 Point win 25.0
    1 Point place 5.0

    4th Paid 4 places, other horse I had in that race came 5th. Winner won it easily enough though. The reasonably priced horses that are overpriced on betfair seem to be good bets. A few have placed, yet to find a winner though.


  • Options
    #34
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Did mixed_up delete that comment you quoted?

    Just regards constructive criticism.
    I'd leave out races where horses are racing off level weights,maiden hurdles,novice races for example. How often does a huge price horse win them? At least in handicaps you get the odd big priced one.


  • Options
    #35
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Did mixed_up delete that comment you quoted?

    Just regards constructive criticism.
    I'd leave out races where horses are racing off level weights,maiden hurdles,novice races for example. How often does a huge price horse win them? At least in handicaps you get the odd big priced one.

    Nah it was via pm hahah.

    Cool. You know more than me when it comes to horse racing for sure so I'll take that on board. It probably would have taken me months to realise that. So far I've noticed that there seemed to be more big priced winners over hurdles than on the flat. I could be wrong though because that's just on initial impressions. I never followed horses before with the exception of the big meetings and local meetings at home.


  • Options
    #36
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Just in particular in Ireland. If you were to watch a lot of maiden hurdles you'd see after 'in rear,never dangerous' for nearly 90% of horses over 20/1. The amount of non tryers is ridiculous,where they're just protecting a mark for handicap races down the line.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #37
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    I'll avoid those for the most part so unless there's a short priced one at a big price on the exchange.
    jive wrote: »
    Al Andalyya 19:50 Windsor
    1 Point win 38.0
    1 Point place 8.4

    Went off at 20 so another good lay opportunity there. Just missed out on 3rd.


  • Options
    #38
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    -39.12 now!

    I will try and limit my selections tomorrow.

    I will also try a staking plan (as well as the normal one) where I will back a win only and then lay it later in the day if possible and keep a seperate bank for that one. I will only pick horses that will hopefully present the possibility of laying later in the day.


  • Options
    #39
    x PyRo
    Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Report any PM's like that mate and they'll be dealt with.

    People are fully entitled to have threads for trialling a system without having money on.

    Do as you like and pay no attention to the nay-sayers (or nay-sayer). Pick a few hundred horses a day if you want!

    Best of luck with the thread and PM me if there's any more of that nonsense.


  • Options
    #40
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Hahah cheers but I honestly couldn't care less. If he doesn't like it he doesn't have to click the thread. I need something to keep me ticking over for the summer months (there's only so much GAA :pac:) and if I find a way to back horses with my limited knowledge that proves to be profitable then happy days. If I don't then I'm sure I'll manage to survive!

    I noticed all top horse tipsters just look for overpriced horses. If they're decently overpriced on the exchange in comparison to the bookies and have a realistic chance of winning then I guess they're still overpriced. Whether this will work or not is what I'm going to find out :D


  • Options
    #41
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Spirit of Coniston Southwell 3:00
    1 Point win 11.5
    1 Point place 3.35

    Beautiful Day Southwell 3:30
    1 Point win 10.5
    1 Point place 2.44

    Mandalay Prince Southwell 4:00
    1 Point win 34.0
    1 Point place 6.6

    Mandalay Prince Southwell 4:00 ____ to lay
    1 Point win 34.0

    Lockantanks Southwell 4:30
    1 Point win 20.0
    1 Point place 4.5

    Plenilune Southwell 17:05
    1 Point win 23.0
    1 Point place 5.6


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #42
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Night Orbit Pontefract 15:40
    1 Point win 18.0
    1 Point place 4.6


    Paradise Spectre Pontefract 16:40
    1 Point win 25.0
    1 Point place 5.7

    Paradise Spectre Pontefract 16:40 ___ to lay
    1 Point win 25.0


  • Options
    #43
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Brilliant Fontwell 3:20
    1 Point win 15.5
    1 Point place 2.52


  • Options
    #44
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    jive wrote: »
    Spirit of Coniston Southwell 3:00
    1 Point win 11.5
    1 Point place 3.35

    win @ 11/2


  • Options
    #45
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Themanfromcork Fontwell 17:20
    1 Point win 11.5
    1 Point place 3.7

    Specialagent Alfie Fontwell 17:50
    1 Point win 21.0
    1 Point place 4.4


  • Options
    #46
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Mandalay Prince drifting atm. Might come in before the off though as he has been shortening in some bookies


  • Options
    #47
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,032 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    jive wrote: »
    Mandalay Prince Southwell 4:00 ____ to lay
    1 Point win 34.0
    jive wrote: »
    Paradise Spectre Pontefract 16:40 ___ to lay
    1 Point win 25.0

    What price would you be looking to lay these horses at? Do you have a certain margin/percentage in mind? I'm pretty sure you can place an unmatched bet before a race for whatever price you'd settle for.


  • Options
    #48
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    jive wrote: »
    Night Orbit Pontefract 15:40
    1 Point win 18.0
    1 Point place 4.6

    2nd


  • Options
    #49
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    L'prof wrote: »
    What price would you be looking to lay these horses at? Do you have a certain margin/percentage in mind? I'm pretty sure you can place an unmatched bet before a race for whatever price you'd settle for.

    Yeah you can do that but I'm reluctant because I'm not sure if it will lay it in running then? If its price shortens in running I'd just let it be. Not too fond of laying in running because I just don't know enough about racing to be able to tell if it's worth laying or not and also because of the time delay in viewing it.

    I don't really have a certain margin I will just watch the market. If he keeps shortening then I'll leave it late until laying. If he shortens and begins to drift then I will try to lay before it gets too big. If I can't lay then I'll just risk the stake. I would like to make sure it is worth laying, however. I will only lay if the bet will return 5+ points for example. I dont see the point in laying when I will only stand to win 1 point or so!

    Mandalay prince can be layed at 29 now but he has been shortening so I'll just see how it goes for another few minutes. I'll post up what lay price I will take. I backed him with real money to make sure I concentrated on it and didn't forget haha.


  • Options
    #50
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    He's beginning to drift now. Didn't shorten enough to make it worth laying.

    edit: He came nowhere

    Paradise Spectre can be layed for 23.0. Backed at 25.0. I will probably try to avoid laying unless I stand to win 5+ points on the higher priced horses at least. That's another thing I'll have to look at.

    edit #2: Non-runner :pac: Oh well. I'll try find a horse in the later meetings that might shorten closer to the off to try it again.


  • Options
    #51
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Miss Firefly Wolverhampton 17:45
    1 Point win 9.8
    1 Point place 2.38

    Lady of Burgundy Wolverhampton 20:15
    1 Point win 27.0
    1 Point place 4.3

    Lady of Burgundy Wolverhampton 20:15 __ to lay __
    1 Point win 27.0

    Lady of Burgundy seems to be given a good chance in this one. Danger to the lay imo is that I often see horses with Silvestre De Sousa on are backed well. He's on an outsider which might be backed and then obviously mine probably won't shorten all that much, if any. Best price is 16/1 with the bookies for Lady Of Burgundy. I've noticed that most horses tend to reflect the bookies prices closer to the off unless they are big outsiders. Hopefully that'll be the case here.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #52
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    jive wrote: »
    Miss Firefly Wolverhampton 17:45
    1 Point win 9.8
    1 Point place 2.38

    2nd pipped at the line! @ 9/2


  • Options
    #53
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    jive wrote: »
    Lady of Burgundy Wolverhampton 20:15 __ to lay __
    1 Point win 27.0

    Drifted out to 40s. Being well backed now. Layed for 19


  • Options
    #54
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,032 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    jive wrote: »
    Drifted out to 40s. Being well backed now. Layed for 19

    Did you actually back this horse? How does the laying work? Do you have to have the money in your account or is it covered because you're guaranteed profit if you make the bet?


  • Options
    #55
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    L'prof wrote: »
    Did you actually back this horse? How does the laying work? Do you have to have the money in your account or is it covered because you're guaranteed profit if you make the bet?

    Yeah I actually backed it. I backed it earlier on in the day when I posted it and then it drifted all day. At around 8 o'clock it was being backed fairly heavily and got as low as 18 I think. I layed it just before the off.

    After I backed it my account was minus my stake. I backed @ 27.0. When I layed it it was 19. I'm not sure if you have to have the money in your account because I had money in my account. When I layed it my stake was returned to my balance as soon as I layed though so I assume you don't actually have to have the money! If I could pick a couple of horses each day that are likely to shorten it would be a good system. I suppose it's hard to know if they're going to be backed or not though. It's nice when they are because you essentially have a free bet on the race.


  • Options
    #56
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    +1.83 for the day. Finally got a winner even if it wasn't that big a price. Could have had another but was caught on the line.

    -37.29 overall

    -1 for the back and lay method.


  • Options
    #57
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Spartan Spirit 2.10 Southwell
    1 Point win 44


  • Options
    #58
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Border Station 2.20 Border Station
    1 Point win 20.0


  • Options
    #59
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Itsthursdayalready Southwell 14:45
    1 Point win 17.0
    1 Point place 2.92

    Itsthursdayalready Southwell 14:45 __to lay__
    1 Point win 17.0

    Watchout Hereford 16:05
    1 Point win 13.5
    1 Point place 4.1


  • Options
    #60
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    lay 13.5


    edit: came 4th in the end. Could have layed at 13 but missed it, 13.5 was around for a minute or two


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #61
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Green Warrior Newcastle 19:35
    1 Point win 7.8

    Pitkin Newcastle 19:35
    1 Point win 8.4

    Vetvey Newcastle 8:05 __ to lay __
    1 Point win 8.4

    Rondeau Kempton 21:20
    1 Point win 9.4
    1 Point place 2.8

    Rondeau Kempton 21:20 __ to lay __
    1 Point win 9.4


Advertisement