Unicorn Experiment Log

jive

Super Sonic Boom on the drift. Makes it tougher to get the lay matched but fingers crossed anyway.

1 point lay 8.0 (keep)

johnny_cash

Hi jive can i ask what are you doing?are you backing horses you fancy and hoping to lay them at a shorter price to get a free bet?

jive

unmatched, -1 point

Denners.ie

Just had a glance through the thread there jive, really interesting concept and glad to see you are doing so well.

Since you tweaked your methods you have been raking it in, well done.

jive

Denners.ie wrote: »

Just had a glance through the thread there jive, really interesting concept and glad to see you are doing so well.

Since you tweaked your methods you have been raking it in, well done.

Cheers, hopefully it keeps going! Started using real money with back/lay method so I'm up a nice bit making it even sweeter.

jive

johnny_cash wrote: »

Hi jive can i ask what are you doing?are you backing horses you fancy and hoping to lay them at a shorter price to get a free bet?

Basically I'm checking if there are any decent price differences between horses at the bookies and on the exchange. If there is a good price difference then I research that horse and see if it's any good. If the horse has a realistic chance of winning the race then I will put a bet on it. To limit losses then I either lay before the race (if the price shortens enough) or set a lay and hope it gets matched in running.

For example Devonelli running at 7.30 is still 14.0 (what I backed him at). If he doesn't shorten to less than 10.0 I will probably just set a lay to be matched in running at ~8.0 or so (I have no set amount that I aim to get in return, I just decide for each horse). If the horse gets in contention then the lay will be matched and I essentially have a free bet. Obviously it doesn't always work out which is where I lose but for the most part it limits the losses. I'm not sure what my biggest loss on a day has been but I usually find around 4 or 5 horses worth taking on and I think the most I've lost on a day was -2 or so because of laying the others.

It also limits the wins but if the horse wins you won't hear me complain. A lot of the difference between the back and lay is the price the bookies are offering anyway!

johnny_cash

Thanks jive do you set your lay bet to the bookies sp?Thanks again i see it's working for you so will give it a try.

jive

johnny_cash wrote: »

Thanks jive do you set your lay bet to the bookies sp?Thanks again i see it's working for you so will give it a try.

No worries! Usually I just watch the market and see how its going. If the price is shortening I can lay it before the off but that is usually only the case for higher priced outsiders as 9/1 shots or so don't shorten as considerably as some outsiders. I usually aim to get at to get a return of at least 3 points if the horse does win. I don't have a set lay really it varies depending on the market and how much I fancy the horse.

Obviously watching the market takes time though and I won't always have as much free time as I do now. The amount of free time I've had over the past month is why I turned to horses in the first place I have exams in May so I won't be backing as much and when I do I will probably have to set the lay at the same time.

Just going off what I've done so far I generally lay bigger outsiders to try ensure 25-35 points, moderate outsiders for around 15 and then slight outsiders for 5 or so. Like I said though it varies and I've no set system for laying, just backing :pac:

jive

Lay Devonelli 10.0 (keep)

Backed with 1.5 points and laying with 1.5 also. Will return 6 points if it wins. Fingers crossed the lay gets matched at least. It's not being well backed but that doesn't bother me too much as all the money is going on the top 3 in the betting.

jive

lay was matched but it finished 2nd went off at 20.0 too :S

johnny_cash

That was unlucky i really need to start using betfair more often 12/1 sp and 20.0 on betfair.

UrbanSea

Jesus not a night for favourites at Dundalk.

jive

^ haha yeh 14,16 and 25 so far. What's annoying is when you're on an outsider and you get beat by an even bigger outsider :pac:

jive

Lay Slade 10.0 (keep)

Backed at 16.5 going to go off at around 11/12 by the looks of things

jive

lay matched already it's being well backed, hopefully the money is right!

johnny_cash

I see slade gone into 8.8 now good luck.

jive

Went off at 7.8 I think! Distant 4th though, a favourite finally wins one. Have Via Mia in the next at Dundalk so hopefully the outsiders will prevail again :pac:

UrbanSea

Jive just a quickie. What do you mean when you say (keep) by a lay?

jive

Johnnys Legacy being well backed in the next so my selection hasn't shortened at all.

Going to try squeeze 10 points out of it anyway. Lay Via Mia 10.0 (keep)


note: Just realised I didn't post this LOL. Went unmatched anyway, came nowhere. Johnnys Legacy came 2nd. There was a small bit on Via Mia before the off but never looked like winning.

jive

UrbanSea wrote: »

Jive just a quickie. What do you mean when you say (keep) by a lay?

You can pick your price on betfair. Say if I can lay for 15.0 I might try get 10.0 instead. So when you click lay change the price from 15.0 to 10.0. When you do that there's 3 options, 1 is cancel before the off, the 2nd is 'keep' in-play and I dunno what the 3rd is. When I say (keep) it's just the option I picked and it can get matched in running instead of cancelling when the race starts. If the horse gets somewhat in contention the lay is usually matched, seems to be good for front runners more so than horses that come from the rear Ruby style

UrbanSea

Ah just for it to be matched in running. Perfect my dear friend.

jive

Lay Regresa A Mi for 23.0.

Backed at 36.0. Not risking trying to get more out of it because there's some huge gambles going on in Dundalk tonight. Helped me for Slade but not so much in the last race!

jive

He's going off at 11.5! Could have layed for 12 and not 23! Also a big gamble on Leaves You Baby. We'll see what happens!

jive

SP of 11 but only managed 4th I think. Wasn't too far away though.

-2 points on the day. Happy enough with the loss though because I picked 2 well backed horses and one horse which came a close 2nd. Unlucky not to get a winner. At least I know I'm picking the right horses for the most part.

+62.9 points overall.

jive

also johnny cash if you want I can post up an estimate of what i will look to lay them at. I doubt anyone is following these selections so it's kind of a messy log as i'm using it to see how i'm doing and where i'm losing out. It's no hassle to me anyway so if you want just lemme know

jive

Colour Scheme Newmarket 2.00
1 Point win 30.0 (cancel)

He was 29.0 when I went to put my money on him and then it went into 23... didn't see that price change happening at 1.30 am :pac: Anyway he's back out to 27 but I'd rather hold out for a bit more because some bookies are offering 20/1 anyway, some as low as 14 however. Looks like a good horse and it's an open race with a few potential winners. Set the price at 30 and if it gets matched it gets matched. If it doesn't it doesn't! That's the only early one I'll have for tomorrow anyway. Good night!

jive

lay Colour Scheme 18.0 (keep)

jive

lay matched so no loss but no win!

jive

Keys Of Cyprus Thirsk 16:45
1 Point win 16.5

jive

Maratib Goodwood 17:40
1 Point win 24.0