The Return of the Messiah

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

15:00 York, Delegator (6/1)

This is a really competitive race with the potential for a few horses to bolt home. The favourite will relish a bit of cut in the ground but he hasn't reproduced the level of form that saw him win two G1s. This horse is being stepped back to 6f and hopefully will have the speed to cope with it. It really is a competitive race but if he handles the conditions he will hopefully give a good account of himself.

Bank: €380

Stake: €5 e/w

Win

Travelled like a dream, went off favourite ahead of Regal Parade who gave him a stern test. Looking forward to watching this fella sprinting for the season, will be on him next time which is probably going to be at Ascot.

Bank: €417.08

TheMilkyPirate

Denners.ie wrote: »

Ah I don't mind Baraca, as long as the money keeps flowing in then that is all that matters

Thanks anyway

Ah don't mind me i was in an awful mood earlier, Better now though thanks to delegator. Well done

Denners.ie

19:40 Perth, Lord Redsgirth (11/10)

15 in the field here and this Gordon Elliot horse is the one I fancy. I wouldn't touch the 2nd and 3rd market leaders of Quel Elite and Rival D'estruval, and really think the main danger will come from Fiddler's Reel. If a better jockey than Graham Lee was getting up I would be more worried but I'm hoping Maguire can get a good tune out of Lord Redsgrith. AP got him into 2nd over C&D last time out and if he reproduces that form he will take all the beating.

Bank: €417.08

Stake: €17.08

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

19:40 Perth, Lord Redsgirth (11/10)

15 in the field here and this Gordon Elliot horse is the one I fancy. I wouldn't touch the 2nd and 3rd market leaders of Quel Elite and Rival D'estruval, and really think the main danger will come from Fiddler's Reel. If a better jockey than Graham Lee was getting up I would be more worried but I'm hoping Maguire can get a good tune out of Lord Redsgrith. AP got him into 2nd over C&D last time out and if he reproduces that form he will take all the beating.

Bank: €417.08

Stake: €17.08

Lose

Fiddler's Reel wins at 10/1. :rolleyes:
Not too disappointed as I picked him as the main danger but probably should have went for him due to the value.

Bank: €400

Denners.ie

16 bets in and the bank has been turned over 4 times. I think a withdrawal is in order when/if I hit 500 .

* A complimentary/free €10 bet has been added to the bank; 400 + 10 = €410.

No. of Bets Placed: 6 (16 in total)
Win: 4
Push: 0
Lose: 2

Profit: €410 (+ 410%)

Bank: €410

Denners.ie

14:30 York, Free Agent (12/1)

This 9 horse field is by all accounts an open race, but there is a few here that I have opposed. The favourite Duncan needs to step up in trip and with this his first run I would be inclined to stay away. Native Ruler looked good on his return and he is bred to stay, if he is fully wound up for this he could be the one to beat. Manighar beat Duncan when his run was checked last time in Longchamps but this being his season opener I would want more than 5/1 to get involved. Askaur Tau has form on my horse but it is over 2m, and considering he was beaten by Free Agent over tomorrows trip a month back I can't see why he is priced at 11/2. The value of the field is in Free Agent, a horse who's best efforts have been done on tomorrows trip of 1 and 3/4 miles. He usually comes off the bridle early but is a grinder and finishes strongly. He has a lot to beat here and if some of them are in gear he may be left behind, but hopefully he will give a good account in this open field. I wouldn't be overly confident but 12/1 is a little big imo.

Bank: €410

Stake: €5 e/w

mike65

Just a hello and well done on this, as per usual I have not been following you and the moment I start it'll all go 'pete tong' so I won't!

Denners.ie

mike65 wrote: »

Just a hello and well done on this, as per usual I have not been following you and the moment I start it'll all go 'pete tong' so I won't!

Haha cheers Mike, hopefully you didn't follow today anyway. :pac:

Denners.ie wrote: »

14:30 York, Free Agent (12/1)

This 9 horse field is by all accounts an open race, but there is a few here that I have opposed. The favourite Duncan needs to step up in trip and with this his first run I would be inclined to stay away. Native Ruler looked good on his return and he is bred to stay, if he is fully wound up for this he could be the one to beat. Manighar beat Duncan when his run was checked last time in Longchamps but this being his season opener I would want more than 5/1 to get involved. Askaur Tau has form on my horse but it is over 2m, and considering he was beaten by Free Agent over tomorrows trip a month back I can't see why he is priced at 11/2. The value of the field is in Free Agent, a horse who's best efforts have been done on tomorrows trip of 1 and 3/4 miles. He usually comes off the bridle early but is a grinder and finishes strongly. He has a lot to beat here and if some of them are in gear he may be left behind, but hopefully he will give a good account in this open field. I wouldn't be overly confident but 12/1 is a little big imo.

Bank: €410

Stake: €5 e/w

Lose

There was definitely value in this fella being backed into 7/1 and 15/2. Kicked up a fuss before he went into the stalls, missed the kick and just didn't look happy. I wasn't expecting much but a bit disappointed I didn't get a real run from him all the same.

Bank: €400

Denners.ie

15:45 Newbury, Dick Turpin (7/2) + (10/3)

No doubting that on form Canford Cliffs is the one to beat in this field. Last year he needed a few runs before he came to the boil and didn't fare overly well on a straight track, although I do think he was a little green and will settle better tomorrow. I'm not sure how much of an impact the track is but with these negatives and him going off odds on at 5/6 I'm going with the other Hannon horse Dick Turpin. Dick Turpin has beaten Canford Cliffs 2 out of 3 times from last season although there can be excuses made for those runs. When both are on form I would have Canford Cliffs no more than 2 lengths better, but if Dick is going to get the better of him this season then I think it has to be tomorrow on his season opener.

Richy Hannon has said Canford is fit but will evidently come on from this run for the Queen Anne, and with Dick having an impressive opener at Sandown I'm favouring him to put up the best challenge. Henry Cecil's Twice over is another I like, his best form has been over 1m 2f where he has been racing at for two years now, but he is a strong galloper and I would fancy him to put up a strong run getting into the places. Red Jazz is another strong opponent and I am fearful of the unknown Italian horse who has a solid record of 6 wins from 7 and stays the mile.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Canford win this but will take Dick Turpin each way hoping that if Canford needs the run he will be the one to take advantage. I will lose a small bit even if Dick places but I'm going with it on the basis that there is a few negatives against Canford in the form of his price, track and freshness. I wouldn't be surprised if he overcame these but you never know, with a bit of luck Dick might catch him on the day.

Bank: €400

Stake: €15 e/w (7/2), €10 e/w (10/3).
€50 total

Denners.ie

Dick was a bit flat today and never picked up when asked. He was bumped around a little but maybe the ground didn't suit anyway. Last time I will ever oppose Canford Cliffs. Class horse but can't wait to see him next time where he will be better again.

Bank: €350

Denners.ie

I put €150 on Man City to lift the cup at half-time in the game, it was 2/5.

I attached a screenshot incase people start to think I'm Coughlan again :pac:

Bank: €410

Denners.ie

16:25 Killarney, Apt Approach (2/1)

All his best form has been on soft or heavy ground but he travelled really well at Punchestown lto where he was badly hampered by a loose horse and then later fell at the last. I presume Mullins thinks he is fairly sound coming from that and I'm willing to take a chance here because I don't think the field is overly strong.
I might go in again tomorrow depending on how I feel.

Bank: €410

Stake: €10

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

16:25 Killarney, Apt Approach (2/1)

All his best form has been on soft or heavy ground but he travelled really well at Punchestown lto where he was badly hampered by a loose horse and then later fell at the last. I presume Mullins thinks he is fairly sound coming from that and I'm willing to take a chance here because I don't think the field is overly strong.
I might go in again tomorrow depending on how I feel.

Another €15 on the nose here.

Bank: €385 (€25 in-play)

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

16:25 Killarney, Apt Approach (2/1)

All his best form has been on soft or heavy ground but he travelled really well at Punchestown lto where he was badly hampered by a loose horse and then later fell at the last. I presume Mullins thinks he is fairly sound coming from that and I'm willing to take a chance here because I don't think the field is overly strong.
I might go in again tomorrow depending on how I feel.

Bank: €410

Stake: €10

Denners.ie wrote: »

Another €15 on the nose here.

Bank: €385 (€25 in-play)

Went off 11/10 but no good. Unseated 2 or 3 from home but was a beaten horse anyway.

Bank: €385

Denners.ie

Liverpool v Tottenham, Liverpool +2 in-running, (4/6)

* Will provide screenshot after the game.

Bank: €385

Stake: €85

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Liverpool v Tottenham, Liverpool +2 in-running, (4/6)

That is +1 on the handicap betting not +2.

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Liverpool v Tottenham, Liverpool +2 in-running, (4/6)

* Will provide screenshot after the game.

Bank: €385

Stake: €85

Lose

I'm getting a bit lackadaisical with my money so I'm going to withdraw €200 and tighten things up again.

€300 - withdrawal of €200 = €100

Bank: €100

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

16:55 Punchestown, Mossey Joe (7/1)

Form is good for this horse with his only loss coming 12 1/2 lengths to Mourad on ground that didn't suit. A friend is really sweet on this fella and has told me about him before, he feels the step down to novice company is well within his grasp. I actually had him on ante post for the Albert Bartlett but owners decided to skip it after not impressing at Christmas and actually pulled him from the stable. Hopefully he will give a good account of himself tomorrow, a lot of confidence for this horse is what I am told.

Denners.ie wrote: »

Ran really well after pulling hard for a circuit but was beaten by a 33/1 shot. Gutted.:(

I didn't think Paul Carberry was too hard on him either but I will get him next time on good ground. Today was definitely one that got away though with him drifting to 10/1 and going off 9/1.

Mossey Joe being turned out in a 2m 6f chase tomorrow in Killarney. He has won over fences before so I will definitely be giving him a good chance.Barry Geraghty on him instead of Carberry which is really positive imo, I will do a write-up later.

Denners.ie

Christ above the horse is evens, best price is 5/4. Seems a little short considering Carberry's and Davy Russell's mounts aren't half bad and could pose a bit of a threat.

18:50 Killarney, Mossey Joe (5/4)

Serious horse who is absolutely made for chasing. Ran a very credible second lto at Punchestown when the slow gallop was what went against him. Only time this fella has let me down was at Leopardstown when the ground was very soft and he failed to pick up at the business end of things. He is taking a step back to 2m 6f from 3m today, but he has won over this distance over timber before. Evens is very slim in a race that isn't very straight forward but he owes me nothing and I made a bad mistake when I opposed one of my followed horses in Canford Cliffs so won't be making that mistake again. Barry Geraghty is on board this time and he will do the horse no harm. It will be interesting to see how they run him this time, he is usually held up in rear but there has been some questioning over whether that is the best thing for him. Anyway, if he stays sound he will be a sure thing for Cheltenham 2012 so i'm hoping he can show some class tomorrow.

Bank: €100

Stake: €50

Denners.ie

15:00 Nottingham, Black Barraca (4/1)

This name popped out at me but couldn't remember where I saw it, it was from Coughlan's log when I was reading it the other day :pac:. I like the look of Black Barraca here, she shaped well last time and hopefully she can make all the running today and not get caught.

Stake: €5 e/w

prospect

Hi Denners,

I've been following this new log and you are doing very well.
Keep up the good work.

Denners.ie

prospect wrote: »

Hi Denners,

I've been following this new log and you are doing very well.
Keep up the good work.

Thanks man I appreciate it, a few dodgy bets but hopefully it will pick up this week .

Denners.ie wrote: »

15:00 Nottingham, Black Barraca (4/1)

This name popped out at me but couldn't remember where I saw it, it was from Coughlan's log when I was reading it the other day :pac:. I like the look of Black Barraca here, she shaped well last time and hopefully she can make all the running today and not get caught.

Stake: €5 e/w

2nd

She didn't run from the front which I thought she would, winner led from pillar to post. Money back anyway.

Penguino

Denners.ie wrote: »

Christ above the horse is evens, best price is 5/4. Seems a little short considering Carberry's and Davy Russell's mounts aren't half bad and could pose a bit of a threat.

18:50 Killarney, Mossey Joe (5/4)

Serious horse who is absolutely made for chasing. Ran a very credible second lto at Punchestown when the slow gallop was what went against him. Only time this fella has let me down was at Leopardstown when the ground was very soft and he failed to pick up at the business end of things. He is taking a step back to 2m 6f from 3m today, but he has won over this distance over timber before. Evens is very slim in a race that isn't very straight forward but he owes me nothing and I made a bad mistake when I opposed one of my followed horses in Canford Cliffs so won't be making that mistake again. Barry Geraghty is on board this time and he will do the horse no harm. It will be interesting to see how they run him this time, he is usually held up in rear but there has been some questioning over whether that is the best thing for him. Anyway, if he stays sound he will be a sure thing for Cheltenham 2012 so i'm hoping he can show some class tomorrow.

Bank: €100

Stake: €50

Respect.

I read your thread today and have chosen a few of the same bets but didn't know anything about Mossey Joe. I put a small amount on her so thanks for the tip.

Plenty left in her at the end of that race, will be going into my Easyodds alerts

Cheers

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Christ above the horse is evens, best price is 5/4. Seems a little short considering Carberry's and Davy Russell's mounts aren't half bad and could pose a bit of a threat.

18:50 Killarney, Mossey Joe (5/4)

Serious horse who is absolutely made for chasing. Ran a very credible second lto at Punchestown when the slow gallop was what went against him. Only time this fella has let me down was at Leopardstown when the ground was very soft and he failed to pick up at the business end of things. He is taking a step back to 2m 6f from 3m today, but he has won over this distance over timber before. Evens is very slim in a race that isn't very straight forward but he owes me nothing and I made a bad mistake when I opposed one of my followed horses in Canford Cliffs so won't be making that mistake again. Barry Geraghty is on board this time and he will do the horse no harm. It will be interesting to see how they run him this time, he is usually held up in rear but there has been some questioning over whether that is the best thing for him. Anyway, if he stays sound he will be a sure thing for Cheltenham 2012 so i'm hoping he can show some class tomorrow.

Bank: €100

Stake: €50

Made a few mistakes but wins easily by 10 lengths. Definitely my favourite chaser and can't wait to see him next time out. He was ridden more prominently as I thought would happen, around 3 back and Barry never got to work on him. Price was 5/6 aswell I missed the early prices :mad:.

Bank: €141.67

Denners.ie

Penguino wrote: »

Respect.

I read your thread today and have chosen a few of the same bets but didn't know anything about Mossey Joe. I put a small amount on her so thanks for the tip.

Plenty left in her at the end of that race, will be going into my Easyodds alerts

Cheers

No worries man I was a bit disappointed he was so short-priced but that really was easy money.

They really should have ran him more aggressively at Punchestown he would have won instead of holding him up in rear. Anyway, plenty more money to be made off him guaranteed.:)

Denners.ie

Heading up to the match so just a few bets for novelty purposes although I shouldn't need to :pac:

Falcao wincast Porto (9/5) - €16.67

Not a big fan of wincasts but considering how good he has been I'll give this a shot.

Porto (-1) - €75

Finals are usually tight but I can see Porto opening the floodgates if they get one early, they are streets ahead of Braga quality wise.

Denners.ie

Falcao wincast won while the -1 lost. No reasoning today because I don't have time.

14:00 Wetherby, Free to Air (5/1) - €5 e/w

16:45 Wetherby, Treehouse (5/1) - €8.34 e/w

Denners.ie

15:40 Wetherby, Milano Supremo without Chicklemix (4/11) - €25

My brain isn't with me today, thought it initially said 11/4 so put this bet on, then realised it said 4/11.

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

15:40 Wetherby, Milano Supremo without Chicklemix (4/11) - €25

My brain isn't with me today, thought it initially said 11/4 so put this bet on, then realised it said 4/11.

Win

Turned over the favourite anyway and won.

boogeyman

Great thread Denners, really enjoy reading it!

Nice to someone beating the bookies from time to time unlike me:pac:

Keep up the good work!