The boards fund! You're all potential traders/analysts....

neil.p.b

xertpo wrote: »

Neil,

I'm always on the lookout for new stocks and I'd never heard of USOP before your post. I've done a quick bit of googling and there ain't a great deal of info out there that would have led to USOP catching my eye prior to you mentioning them.
Do you mind if I ask how you came across them? I only ask as I always seem to discover stocks from somebody else, and I'm keen to improve my own methods. cheers.

A poster on the RRL lse board tipped them a couple of months back. I'd never even looked at the plus exchange before to be honest. Generally when most people bring up o/t stocks on a forum i wouldn't pay much attention, but the poster in question i hold in very high regard. His posts concerning RRL are generally very good, which is hard to come across on any forum.

Again i stress how high risk/reward the stock is. I've only got 5% if my equity in it, but at the same time i'm quite optimistic on it. They have a CoS of 80%, which is extremely high, if they prove recoverable oil at anywhere near the current estimations they will be a scramble for those 10m shares.

turbobaby

freeze4real wrote: »

Not to be pushy but I picked San leon not AEM.

Yep, just needs a switch of the comments...

xertpo

neil.p.b wrote: »

A poster on the RRL lse board tipped them a couple of months back. I'd never even looked at the plus exchange before to be honest. Generally when most people bring up o/t stocks on a forum i wouldn't pay much attention, but the poster in question i hold in very high regard. His posts concerning RRL are generally very good, which is hard to come across on any forum.

Again i stress how high risk/reward the stock is. I've only got 5% if my equity in it, but at the same time i'm quite optimistic on it. They have a CoS of 80%, which is extremely high, if they prove recoverable oil at anywhere near the current estimations they will be a scramble for those 10m shares.

Thanks Neil. I'll take a look at closer look at them myself. I see they have an Irish connection, so it might be a little easier to get the inside track.

turbobaby

xertpo wrote: »

Thanks Neil. I'll take a look at closer look at them myself. I see they have an Irish connection, so it might be a little easier to get the inside track.

Keep us updated!

Nice performance from AEM on day one!

mono627

My trade get triggered? I'd start looking to take profits if it did.

Adrock-aka

April 28th Portfolio update

Hi guys, would updates every 2 or 3 days in video form (like the below) be better than the screenshots? It would probably give a better insight into the workings of the portfolio.

Keep the picks and votes coming! We want this thing 50% invested by the weekend if possible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnjtgJ2UH9o

Screenr has HD if you expand the window http://www.screenr.com/3Qi

Idu

Adrock-aka wrote: »

April 28th Portfolio update

http://www.screenr.com/3Qi

Hi guys, would updates every 2 or 3 days in video form (like the above) be better than the screenshots? It would probably give a better insight into the workings of the portfolio.

Keep the picks and votes coming! We want this thing 50% invested by the weekend if possible.

<iframe src="http://www.screenr.com/embed/3Qi&quot; width="650" height="396" frameborder="0"></iframe>

What's your rush? I thought you wanted to set this up like a real fund. Obviously it's not as much fun to actually have to research why a strategy is a good idea but you want to be 50% invested without even setting a risk profile or even having a clear trading plan as to what you want your exit from the trades to be.

I can understand also why you offered up 5% positions to the first five people to get things moving and to drum up interest but 15% is already too much to have invested in three similar, highly speculative stocks. You need to think of capital protection not just what potentially offers the greatest rewards.

Great idea but the way you are doing it is actually far far removed from the reality and not a true reflection on real life trading. Anyone can be reckless with a fake account but I thought the point was to actually simulate a real world environment

Adrock-aka

Idu wrote: »

What's your rush? I thought you wanted to set this up like a real fund. Obviously it's not as much fun to actually have to research why a strategy is a good idea but you want to be 50% invested without even setting a risk profile or even having a clear trading plan as to what you want your exit from the trades to be.

I can understand also why you offered up 5% positions to the first five people to get things moving and to drum up interest but 15% is already too much to have invested in three similar, highly speculative stocks. You need to think of capital protection not just what potentially offers the greatest rewards.

Great idea but the way you are doing it is actually far far removed from the reality and not a true reflection on real life trading. Anyone can be reckless with a fake account but I thought the point was to actually simulate a real world environment

Excellent point - we do want it to be a realistic fund (as realistic as possible anyway). Like you said, threads have a short shelf life and are prone to fading away when there's little initial interest. I was just trying to run with the momentum. If you hadn't noticed, only 2 people (including myself) were voting for other's stock picks and this process is the only mechanism we can use to manage the fund. If we had waited for 5 votes... we may never have made one trade. So I had to run with what was there. Admittedly, not the best solution but structure and better due diligence/planning will hopefully come with time.

Even though we don't have a concrete risk profile, capital allocation rules, or profit objectives - I was hoping that these things could be brought up and discussed (by experienced traders such as yourself) so others can get to grips with the reasoning of why were doing it.

You post just exposed 3 gaping holes in the fund. Awesome. Could you suggest a general outline for a potential:

1) Risk Profile
2) Set of trading objectives
3) Capital protection straetgy

Any stock picks!? :P

Edit - and consider the 'free 5% allocation for the first X amount of people' retracted.

mcbert

Been lurking a bit here, but now here's my two cents: United Therapeutics

Revenue up:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/United-Therapeutics-prnews-1189486503.html?x=0&.v=1

A few recent analyst upgrades:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=UTHR

Probably risky, so inclusion depends on our fund risk profile...

Adrock-aka

Thanks Mcbert. Guys get to voting with a thumbs up 'thanks' if you want the share included.

Because inflation is surging, and because its generally a good thing to do for a diversified portfolio, i'm going to suggest a 10% capital allocation to the below commodity-based ETFs. Commodity prices are correlated to inflation and thus, provide an inflationary hedge (when inflation rises, commodity prices rise). Commodity prices are also not correlated to equity prices, so there are diversification and risk reduction benefits also.

PowerShares DB Precious Metals DBP
PowerShares DB Agriculture DBA
PowerShares DB Energy DBE

Thoughts on the ETFs/position sizing?

turbobaby

tockpick sounds good to me!

AEM already up 5% in two days. The shorts maybe down now!

freeze4real

How are we doing o far ?

Adrock-aka

Not doing the may west! All of our positions are down. For the two penny stocks, we initially wanted to keep them for the medium term but when does a loss become too severe?

The 7/8% stop loss (as mentioned before in this thread) doesn't really work for volatile small caps but we need some sort of stop loss.

Does anyone want anything else included in here? Come on! I still think we should have exposure to commodities through ETFs. If you want them in the portfolio- click thanks and vote it in.

hmmm

This thread should be hilarious, there isn't a worthless POS stock out there that hasn't been recommended on boards at one time or another. What is the index you'll be using as a comparison? I suggest the FTSE All-World Index or the MSCI equivalent which can be tracked using either Vanguard VT or iShares ACWI ETFs.

I suggest you also get a blind monkey to pick a portfolio (no, seriously). Or, less facetiously, pick a portfolio at random.

Both these portfolios would be good for comparison purposes.

Adrock-aka

I think a normal sighted monkey picking stocks would suffice to prove the point - but we'll try to source a blind one.

The ftse all world sounds good as a benchmark (is AW01 the ticker?)

What was your most recent trade hmmm? If it was good enough for you to trade, and if you have the time to justify your pick with a few short sentences, stick it on here so we can get it into the portfolio!

Maybe a few words about the rules you've set yourself with regards to your stock selection?

freeze4real

It might be too late for this but I should have told you LNG. I've been watching this since September it has gone from $3.22 to $12.20.


How's Sle.l doing ?

Adrock-aka

Sorry for the radio silence.
Since the last post, we've gotten out of RRL as the net loss went higher than 10% and we've given it a bit of time. I'll cancel the sell if anyone can provide reasoning to keep it in.

We bought into SLE at 36p and its 32.50p at the moment so we've an unrealised £3,000 loss on the portfolio. I think we should get out at 11% or 12% for penny stocks going forward, sound good?

My next recommendation for a 10% stake will be VMWARE a leader in cloud computing technology. Its EPS growth over the past few years and quarters has been consistently impressive and the stock price is nearing all-time highs.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VMW

It shows a clasically strong chart pattern (cup with handle) which has identified a profitable looking buy point at about $97.30 and it looks like it will do very well in the next few months/years.





The price base at the bottom of the cup suggests that there has been a shakeout of weaker/shorter term investors and more solid longerterm investors hold the stock now. With some decent buy volume this week, it looks like a good punt.






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Click thanks below if you'd like to see it in the portfolio!

There will be a 6% stop loss with the above.

Anyone trading anything else??? Lets get some more suggestions in!

Thargor

RRL should be behaving itself from now on.

Thargor

Actually maybe it wont, we're still a month out from the action, it could drift for the next couple of weeks with the lack of news and the way things are in general.

Roonbox

I'm gonna jump aboard this thread see if theres any action left in it..

Went short Dow at 12555 a few days ago -

targetting 100dma to get out -

watching TBT for an entry point - long term position

keeping an eye on wheat & sugar

shoutman

Whatever happened to this that it suddenly stopped?
Sorry to bump an old thread but just started investing and would be an interesting read.

zephyro

shoutman wrote: »

Whatever happened to this that it suddenly stopped?
Sorry to bump an old thread but just started investing and would be an interesting read.

Ditto, I'd like to make a suggestion if it's still alive!

Jesus Wept

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

Adrock-aka

It seemed to lose a lot of traction and people stopped contributing. It's worth another go though! The collective know-how and experience here could lead to some interesting discussions/learnings, etc. If anyone would like to start fresh, you can create a free portfolio at www.zignals.com

zephyro

Adrock-aka wrote: »

It seemed to lose a lot of traction and people stopped contributing. It's worth another go though! The collective know-how and experience here could lead to some interesting discussions/learnings, etc. If anyone would like to start fresh, you can create a free portfolio at www.zignals.com

Let's see if a suggestion can kick-start some contributions! There's been a huge amount of statistical research attempting to identify criteria that distinguish stocks which tend to outperform and as far as I know only four are robust in all countries and significant time periods tested: 1) positive earnings suprise, 2) value, 3) momentum and 4) small-cap.

A recent example meeting all these criteria is VOXX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=voxx). The company announced QEPS of $0.38 on 9 January triggering a 21% share price rise the following day. Even so it's trailing P/E, P/B and P/S are only 10, 0.7 and 0.4 respectively. It has very strong price momentum and has traded at or near the 52-week high since the earnings announcement. Finally it's market cap. is only $290m.

Given that a positive earnings surprise triggered this trade it shouldn't be too surprising that I'll be holding until there's a negative earnings surprise.

It'd be interesting to see other strategies and suggested trades.

freeze4real

If you bought LNG you would be doing alright now. so were we at profit/loss.

Sle.L gone downwards.