Ken Ring on the radio.

lolie

talkabout wrote: »

LOL So which is it? Cool or Mild? Don't rate the guys predictions but he appears to get plenty of radio time.

He's a spoofer alright. Reminds me of someone i heard on southpark years ago.
How he gets so much radio time is beyond me.

mike65

I think his overall outlook will be shown to be correct unfortunately - baking hot on le Continent (leaking into the South/East of England) and an utterly mediocre nothing of a summer here.

Speak Now

mike65 wrote: »

I think his overall outlook will be shown to be correct unfortunately - baking hot on le Continent (leaking into the South/East of England) and an utterly mediocre nothing of a summer here.

You could forecast that every summer and have a 90% success rate!
It's that 1 in 10 summer that we can talk about for the following decade that many people crave.

mike65

True!

pauldry

i predict the 1 in 10 summer every year thats why my predictions are only 10% accurate.:p

Kenring

Last year I said there'd be wet months to start and end this year, and in between there'd be cool summer months with below normal sunshine.
I had this year starting with slightly warmer than normal months, that seems to have come about
I said rain would be above normal everywhere this year, particularly in the south and west. February and December were always going to be the wettest months.
February was going to be the windiest month.
April was going to be colder than March.
But after April, temperatures would fairly rapidly rise. Despite that I think April-Sept will be cool relative to normal, with the exception of July which should be around normal.
The warmest month of the year averaged across the country may be August closely followed by July.
June and October are likely to be the driest months.
There is some flooding in some areas expected for all counties in the beginning, just after middle and end of September to bring the significant floods for the year.

I think you can expect a slow start to a mild summer, with summer temperatures not really arriving until the start of July and lasting for about two weeks into August, and maybe till the second week of September in the west
The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June.
Warm temperatures may occur during the last week in June, also around the end of July/beginning of Aug, coinciding with the full moon, as well as the first half of August.
Your warmest temperatures may come in the second week in August and may reach around 20-25C.
The amount of sunshine is likely to be below normal and only October may be a really sunny month.

Overall each autumn month may be milder, with some brief drops in temperatures around mid October and cooler conditions setting in from the second week in December. On many days the temperatures may not register low but wind chills will be a deciding factor for outdoor events. November is also going to be warm and December mild and wet.

As for best time for holidays, there are relatively short dry spells in May and June but of all dry spells my choice would be the last ten days of June. Another dry spell for all may be the last week of July and the first week of August, when mostly fine days are anticipated despite the odd passing shower. September has fairly short dry spells and the last dry interval may be during almost the whole second half of October.

I feel there will probably be an exceptionally hot summer in Europe especially Central Europe, with parts of Germany, Austria and Czech Republic possibly about 5deg higher than normal. The hot weather elsewhere will be accompanied by scattered thundery showers, some very heavy because of the heat buildup, and that will be the cause of flooding. Due to dryness and heat there may be fires in some countries. But Ireland temps may just be around normal. It is next year that you will have a hot summer.

The month to watch this year will be September because of those chances of flooding.


The accuracy is about 80-85%, as we know, weather is an inexact science
regards to all and 100% best wishes for the season

blackwave

Long time lurker here on the weather forums and first time poster but if you don't mind me saying Ken you really do seem to contradict yourself.

"But after April, temperatures would fairly rapidly rise. Despite that I think April-Sept will be cool relative to normal, with the exception of July which should be around normal.
The warmest month of the year averaged across the country may be August closely followed by July."

You suggest in the first sentence that July will be our warmest month, but in the following sentence you assert that August will be the warmest month. Does seem to be a bit of fence sitting there trying to cover yourself on all angles for what are traditionally our warmest months, but thats just my opinion so I stand to be corrected.

Rougies

Why are we allowing somebody that's pretty much in the same game as people selling weight loss pills and 24 second abs videos and the likes post here breaking forum rules and also advertise for free by playing to the general ignorance (of technical weather related things) of most people on our radio stations?
Sometimes I wish I was a mod just for an hour!

Kenring

blackwave wrote: »

Long time lurker here on the weather forums and first time poster but if you don't mind me saying Ken you really do seem to contradict yourself.

"But after April, temperatures would fairly rapidly rise. Despite that I think April-Sept will be cool relative to normal, with the exception of July which should be around normal.
The warmest month of the year averaged across the country may be August closely followed by July."

You suggest in the first sentence that July will be our warmest month, but in the following sentence you assert that August will be the warmest month. Does seem to be a bit of fence sitting there trying to cover yourself on all angles for what are traditionally our warmest months, but thats just my opinion so I stand to be corrected.

No contradiction. Hard to tell whether July or August will be warmest, small difference. But warmest this year is likely to register only around normal because the other months should be below normal. Does that make it clearer?

Kenring

Rougies wrote: »

Why are we allowing somebody that's pretty much in the same game as people selling weight loss pills and 24 second abs videos and the likes post here breaking forum rules and also advertise for free by playing to the general ignorance (of technical weather related things) of most people on our radio stations?
Sometimes I wish I was a mod just for an hour!

Oh, apologies, didn't mean to selfpromote. Have edited out the reference links to my book and website. Don't wish to offend, this is a really good forum. I just thought my comments may have provided food for thought, that's all. Most of my post was just a summarised precis of the way I see the year unfolding. Ken

Rougies

Kenring wrote: »

Oh, apologies, didn't mean to selfpromote. Have edited out the reference links to my book and website. Don't wish to offend, this is a really good forum. I just thought my comments may have provided food for thought, that's all. Most of my post was just a summarised precis of the way I see the year unfolding. Ken

I appreciate your sarcasm, this humour is quite refreshing after all your strictly scientific posts until this point, and also plays quite well to the Irish psyche too as luck would have it! Your research is really starting to show it's merits recently.
I'll be here if you want to reply... http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1400

EDIT: You removed your advertising links. Thank you. You didn't realise advertising wasn't allowed here after all your years here on boards trying to sell a product? Possible I suppose

Kenring

Rougies wrote: »

I appreciate your sarcasm, this humour is quite refreshing after all your strictly scientific posts until this point, and also plays quite well to the Irish psyche too as luck would have it! Your research is really starting to show it's merits recently.
I'll be here if you want to reply... http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1400

EDIT: You removed your advertising links. Thank you. You didn't realise advertising wasn't allowed here after all your years here on boards trying to sell a product? Possible I suppose

I genuinely forgot, which is why I immediately edited the links out when my attention was drawn to it. I can do no more. BTW, that link goes to a tabletennis forum.

Kenring

talkabout wrote: »

LOL So which is it? Cool or Mild? Don't rate the guys predictions but he appears to get plenty of radio time.

Cool and mild. Depends where you are.

K_1

Kenring wrote: »

Last year I said there'd be wet months to start and end this year,

Thats called winter.

Kenring wrote: »

February and December were always going to be the wettest months.
February was going to be the windiest month.

February wasn't.

Kenring wrote: »

But after April, temperatures would fairly rapidly rise.

Thats called summer.

Kenring wrote: »

The warmest month of the year averaged across the country may be August closely followed by July.

Thats what usually happens in summer - Aug and Jul are hottest.

Kenring wrote: »

I think you can expect a slow start to a mild summer,

cool summer months with below normal sunshine.

Bit contradictory.

Kenring wrote: »

Your warmest temperatures may come in the second week in August and may reach around 20-25C.

20C in summer isn't exactly a rare event.

Kenring wrote: »

Overall each autumn month may be milder, with some brief drops in temperatures around mid October and cooler conditions setting in from the second week in December.

Thats called winter . .when it gets cold after autumn.

I could go on but I couldn't be bothered, you're forecasting climate not weather. And climate is pretty slow to change so thats not too difficult.

compsys

I could go on but I couldn't be bothered, you're forecasting climate not weather. And climate is pretty slow to change so thats not too difficult.[/QUOTE]

Lol. You hit the nail on the head right there with that sentence.

Kenring

K_1 wrote: »

Thats called winter. .

I could go on but I couldn't be bothered, you're forecasting climate not weather. And climate is pretty slow to change so thats not too difficult.

Sorry, climate is weather. They define each other. We cannot talk about climate without using weather words. I challenge anyone who imagines climate and weather are not the same thing to come up with just one sentence that does that.

Actually in my post I was mentioning specific months and their trends over this year. I wasn't talking about Ireland's general climate. It happens to be a fact that April was cooler than March, and that is not to my knowledge the normal climate/weather trend in Ireland. I posted my prediction ideas for the purpose of interesting discussion, not so I could be shot down for doing so. I posted because my name is part of this thread.

It would be really good to discuss weather here, on a weather forum. Does anyone have alternative predictions for the summer and other months ahead? I think the more ideas the better. For instance, I suggest that we are seeing repeats of the trends of the late 1970s and the early 1990s. What do others think?

Trogdor

Kenring wrote: »

Sorry, climate is weather. They define each other. We cannot talk about climate without using weather words. I challenge anyone who imagines climate and weather are not the same thing to come up with just one sentence that does that.

Weather and climate are quite different things.

"The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time."

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html

Kenring

Trogdor wrote: »

Weather and climate are quite different things.

"The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time."

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html

Thank you. Clear from that that what I was posting was about weather because I was naming months, which are short periods of time. Now that that is settled can we get back to discussing what may happen in the coming months?

Tornando9

Ken what will the weather be like on the 28th August at precisely 14.58 and 10 seconds at the statoil on the Blessington road in Naas.

Kenring wrote: »

Thank you. Clear from that that what I was posting was about weather because I was naming months, which are short periods of time. Now that that is settled can we get back to discussing what may happen in the coming months?

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

Thank you. Clear from that that what I was posting was about weather because I was naming months, which are short periods of time. Now that that is settled can we get back to discussing what may happen in the coming months?

what do the Cat's Paws say about the summer KEN ??

Joe Public

Kenring wrote: »

Thank you. Clear from that that what I was posting was about weather because I was naming months, which are short periods of time. Now that that is settled can we get back to discussing what may happen in the coming months?

There's a thread here already discussing/guessing Summer 2012

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=78514881#post78514881

Su Campu

Ken, the fact remains that forecasts like yours, detailing down to single weeks or days over a year in advance, are impossible, and anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves (but more importantly, trying to fool others - especially when there's money to be made from it). Every one of us here could post a forecast like yours by picking things at random, and we have the same chance of being right or wrong. You do get commercial customers, but the problem is that there's one born every minute, and the 85% success rate you claim is enough to make them part with their money and make you a nice living. Unfortunately people like you only get remembered for the 1 hit, and the 4 misses that went before it are forgotten about. We have our fair share of charlatans this side of the world too, and like you, they are the ones who get all the air time and column inches. Thankfully one or two of them are falling by the wayside recently as people start to cop on.

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

Ken, the fact remains that forecasts like yours, detailing down to single weeks or days over a year in advance, are impossible, and anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves (but more importantly, trying to fool others - especially when there's money to be made from it). Every one of us here could post a forecast like yours by picking things at random, and we have the same chance of being right or wrong. You do get commercial customers, but the problem is that there's one born every minute, and the 85% success rate you claim is enough to make them part with their money and make you a nice living. Unfortunately people like you only get remembered for the 1 hit, and the 4 misses that went before it are forgotten about. We have our fair share of charlatans this side of the world too, and like you, they are the ones who get all the air time and column inches. Thankfully one or two of them are falling by the wayside recently as people start to cop on.

I think I get it. This thread is only about attacking me. Well, okay, the bullies have identified themselves.
Just for the record, I do NOT pick things at random. I do NOT make a "nice living" from what I do, it is nonprofit and I have to have other jobs.
I am NOT trying to fool others. I don't know anything about cat's paws.
Who says forecasts that I do are 'impossible'? That is not fact at all. One could equally claim tide times and heights guessed ahead are impossible if one did not know the process. People attack what they don't understand because they feel threatened in some way, then they say their area of ignorance is 'fact'. We see the same claims with global warmers who say it is a fact that all scientists agree with them, it is a fact that sealevels are rising, all without any evidence presented. The only fact is that they are too lazy to do some real empirical legwork, and it seems to be the same here.
More importantly, I have NEVER and still do not seek radio spots in Ireland - they all have approached me in the past and still do. It is the same with magazines and newspapers. So enough people must have have received something useful from my work, that my opinions are still sought. Odd that the Irish public don't hear Su Campu interviews - strange when such a person is such an obvious oracle on what is 'fact'.
I'm NOT trying to muscle in on anyone's precious territory. I would rather my thoughts were just alongside those of others.

Kenring

Joe Public wrote: »

There's a thread here already discussing/guessing Summer 2012

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=78514881#post78514881

Thanks Joe, I wondered where the actual discussion was. Interested to find that mild, dull and wet is the highest polling. Pretty well sums up the year's weather too.

K_1

Kenring wrote: »

Thanks Joe, I wondered where the actual discussion was. Interested to find that mild, dull and wet is the highest polling. Pretty well sums up the year's weather too.

Sums up every years weather really.

Kenring

K_1 wrote: »

Sums up every years weather really.

I think people have short memories. 2011 summer was cold at times, 2010 was average sometimes very wet but mostly okay June and July, 2009 was a wet one but not as much as 2010, 2008 was hot at start of June and end of July only, 2007 was very dry, and 2006 was a really amazingly good summer. So just like every other country there is quite a variation if you want to look at all the years.

Kenring

Tornando9 wrote: »

Ken what will the weather be like on the 28th August at precisely 14.58 and 10 seconds at the statoil on the Blessington road in Naas.

Hmm..generally weather at a statiol is a bit messy. I'd avoid statoils if I were you. Your joke could fall over.

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

Hmm..generally weather at a statiol is a bit messy. I'd avoid statoils if I were you. Your joke could fall over.

Meaow is that the cats talking :eek:

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

Meaow is that the cats talking :eek:

I can only hear quacking, Duckysauce.

Tornando9

Kenring wrote: »

Hmm..generally weather at a statiol is a bit messy. I'd avoid statoils if I were you. Your joke could fall over.

You started the joke by coming on here in the first place i just added to it.