punchestown tips

luis suarez

johnf1004 wrote: »

think it has to be a big one on hurricane, anyone reckon the rain could be a factor though?

I'm going to go against you here i'm talking a chance on binocular 11/2 is just to good to ignore

the groutch

looking at Thousand Stars

7/2 w/o the fav
or
15/2 insurebet 2 places (ie money back if he finishes second)


and an in running lay of blackstairsmountain @ 1.01 on betfair

Hulk Hands

johnf1004 wrote: »

think it has to be a big one on hurricane, anyone reckon the rain could be a factor though?

It will incovienience him less than it will Menorah or Binocular, so definitely not a negative.

Denners.ie

baraca wrote: »

Don't know what to do with myself here, Thinking of big double on the fly and first lieutenant but just nervous that so young could turn the tables with first lieutenant. I've watched the cheltenham race a few times now and i'm undecided whether so young would have beaten FL without the last fence blunder, FL stayed on very strongly where as so young looked a bit one paced ( i know he had just gone through a fence but gathered his feet fairly quickly afterwards)

What do ye all think?

There really is very little between First Lieutenant and So Young, tough choice. Looking at the race again So Young probably would have been beaten even if he didn't batter the last but I think I will go with him because I feel he will come on from that run, wouldn't take anything below 5/4 though and even that is a push.

Gavin "shels"

Can see a possible treble or patent with Thegreatjohnbrowne, Hurricane Fly and First Lieutenant for me tomorrow.

Do the treble and if they all place you still get a small profit, they all win and you make a mint.

Liking Rudi Trucker and Silician Secret tomorrow too as outsiders.

Hulk Hands

Gavin shels wrote: »

Can see a possible treble or patent with Thegreatjohnbrowne, Hurricane Fly and First Lieutenant for me tomorrow.

Do the treble and if they all place you still get a small profit, they all win and you make a mint.

Liking Rudi Trucker and Silician Secret tomorrow too as outsiders.

Would that not be an each way treble? I wouldn't advise doing anything each way regarding Hurricane Fly and First Lieutenant, as they are 4/6 and 7/4 respectively, not e/w prices. A nice bet might be a trixie, i.e 1 treble and 3 doubles involving the 4 horses all in one. If 2 come in you should at least get your money back, or up a decent bit if one of them is thegreatjohnbrowne

Gavin "shels"

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Would that not be an each way treble? I wouldn't advise doing anything each way regarding Hurricane Fly and First Lieutenant, as they are 4/6 and 7/4 respectively, not e/w prices. A nice bet might be a trixie, i.e 1 treble and 3 doubles involving the 4 horses all in one. If 2 come in you should at least get your money back, or up a decent bit if one of them is thegreatjohnbrowne

Why would you advise against an each way treble? If the three place at 4/6, 7/4 and 7/2 you still make a small profit, if the three win you make a mint. Whereas in a Trixie with the same total stake wouldn't yield half as much if they all won.

Anyway each to their own I suppose, I'll be doing the e/w treble in Ladbrokes so €5 of it will be free anyway.

Hulk Hands

Gavin shels wrote: »

Why would you advise against an each way treble? If the three place at 4/6, 7/4 and 7/2 you still make a small profit, if the three win you make a mint. Whereas in a Trixie with the same total stake wouldn't yield half as much if they all won.

Anyway each to their own I suppose, I'll be doing the e/w treble in Ladbrokes so €5 of it will be free anyway.

You would actually make twice as much with the trixie if they all won. But yeah, I calculated it there, maybe the e/w treble isn't such a bad bet, especially as you seem nailed on for a place at least in 2 of them. It just seemed weird to be backing a 4/6 horse e/w. But anyway, best of luck with it

HigginsJ

Thousand Stars is priced up at 10/1. Menorah is 5/1. Considering thousand stars beat him at Cheltenham these prices make little sense.

Anyone know where i can get a match bet between the two of them.

Shane732

Hills are going 6/4 on So Young, 888 are going 5/4.... Some firms are gone odds on already.

Hulk Hands

Shane732 wrote: »

Hills are going 6/4 on So Young, 888 are going 5/4.... Some firms are gone odds on already.

Hills going best price Hurricane Fly too, 4/6. Had a nice double on the two there.

Shane732

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Hills going best price Hurricane Fly too, 4/6. Had a nice double on the two there.

Must admit I'm finding it hard to get stuck into Hurricane Fly at 4/6. I'm a huge Hurricane fan and firmly believed he'd do it in Cheltenham. I had a pretty big money on him in Cheltenham but that was at prices up to 5/1.

I'm finding it hard to justify getting properly stuck in to him at 4/6.

Personally I think 4/6 is very short for him.

I much preferred Quevega at a similar price, even if Mourad did stop me from having as much as I would have liked on her.

I do have a double done from a few weeks ago with the two of them at slightly better prices.

Big Daddy Cool

had a disaster yesterday, has to be better today.....but highly unlikely . think i might throw curragh boy, the hard hat, swing bill, and boxer georg in an e/w lucky 15. then a nice double on hurricane fly and first lieutenent.

Hulk Hands

Shane732 wrote: »

Must admit I'm finding it hard to get stuck into Hurricane Fly at 4/6. I'm a huge Hurricane fan and firmly believed he'd do it in Cheltenham. I had a pretty big money on him in Cheltenham but that was at prices up to 5/1.

I'm finding it hard to justify getting properly stuck in to him at 4/6.

Personally I think 4/6 is very short for him.

I much preferred Quevega at a similar price, even if Mourad did stop me from having as much as I would have liked on her.

I do have a double done from a few weeks ago with the two of them at slightly better prices.

I have a double done with himself and Quevega alright at 5/2.

To my mind he's a decent price at 4/6. He has already shown his superiority over Menorah and thousand stars. On his some track with all things equal, I cant see that result changing.

I'm fairly certain that HF is better than Binocular at his very best. And taking into account that Binocular very likely wont be at his best (Aintree run, and inconsistency in general), then I can discount him as a threat also.

Much like Quevega yesterday, there are no negatives. The horse has no quirks. he's a great jumper. He's good off a slow and fast pace. Course and distance winner. Ground is fine. Trainer/jockey combo perfect. He has no chinks in the armour.

I'm a firm believer that you keep backing an unbeaten horse until he loses. (i count HF as unbeaten, that early season bog defeat doesn't count). I've done the same with Big Bucks over hurdles, and the same with Quevega (albiet she lost once, and I think after yesterday she may never be value again).

When HF wins this, you'll never see him at over 1/2 again unless things start to go wrong. This is probably the last value opportunity people will have to back him, before he beats the last unknown (Binocular)

donalkenny

what do you think of a double on hurricane fly and first lieutenant?pays about 4-1 and I reckon it has a 50-50 chance of coming off.

eilo1

Just one bet today a rather uncertain trixie on Hurricane fly, first lieutenant and wishful thinking. fingers x!

Shane732

The Champion Hurdle is going to be a bloodbath if Hurricane gets turned over! 70%+ of the book looks to be on him.

naughto

did a tripe i never do them went for 2.50 each way on
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/5 places 1,2,3
Kid Cassidy @ 11/4 (GP)
PUNCHESTOWN 18:05 CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE 2m 4f
06-05-2011 18:05
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2
So Young @ evens (GP)
PUNCHESTOWN 17:30 CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m
06-05-2011 17:30
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2
Binocular @ 11/2 (GP)
Your Bets

UrbanSea

Very impressive by the Fly.

markc1184

All very easy for Hurricane Fly there. Different class.

tinacam

Have to say had a brill day!! had a 50e win triple on uncle junior,wishfull thinking,and hurricane fly :D:D:D

the groutch

the groutch wrote: »

looking at Thousand Stars

7/2 w/o the fav
or
15/2 insurebet 2 places (ie money back if he finishes second)

kerching

trebor28

anyone hear ted walsh today??? only in ireland.

but thank god for it, he tells it like it is!

the groutch

trebor28 wrote: »

anyone hear ted walsh today??? only in ireland.

but thank god for it, he tells it like it is!

what did he say?

trebor28

the groutch wrote: »

what did he say?

oh he was coming out with great lines all week.

a horse got free from the jockey on the way to the start, and was cantering back down the track, robert hall asked him what would they do now, ted responded 'i'd run the buggers no matter what happened'!

then went on about health and safety.

he called a horse a bastard and a pup the other day.
on a rant about health and safety all week.

the groutch

trebor28 wrote: »

on a rant about health and safety all week.

and that from a trainer who has had a whole heap of runners at Laytown on the beach over the last few years

the ironing is delicious

Gavin "shels"

First Lieutenant let down my treble today of Wishful Thinking, Hurricane Fly and himself. :evil: Was in work so only got the treble done. Just checked all my picks I done last night for today and I nearly cried!

3.40 Cool Warrior 3rd
4.15 Uncle Junior 1st
4.55 Wishful Thinking 1st
5.30 Hurricane Fly 1st
6.05 First Lieutenant 3rd and Spirit of Adjisa 1st
6.40 Kid Cassidy 1st and Sicilian Secret 7th
7.10 Golden Firebird 3rd
7.45 Cork all Star 7th and Rudi Trucker - fell

Uncle Junior was 8/1 was night when I picked him and Spirit of Adjisa was either 25/1 or 20/1. Fcuking poxy work hindering my gambling!!!!!!

Gavin "shels"

Quick question, does anyone know what fecking frequency the Punchestown festival was on the radio today? Spent literally 20 mins going to work trying to find it today at about 4.30 and then about 15 mins in work and not a thing, was meant to be on Radio One if I'm not mistaken.

Anyway would be really handy to know what station it's on as I'm heading down to Galway at 3 tomorrow for the Shels match and wanna see if my luck can finally come in.:D

amber101

Hi Guys

Just wondering if anyone has any :rolleyes: tips :rolleyes: for today. Shocking week so far.

Cheers

justshane

I like the look of call the police in the 17:35, maybe each way if the odds suit.

amber101

Cheers "Justshane", 12/1 at the mo, sounds good, finger xxxx

markc1184

What do people think of Grandouet's chances running against Unaccompanied today? Unaccompanied is an excellent horse and is rightly favourite but I just have a bit of a niggling for Grandouet today.

UrbanSea

Big gamble on Westmeath in the 5.35. I got 16/1 last night,8/1 favourite now.
41% of the bets on oddschecker going on it,that in a 28 runner handicap race :eek:

amber101

markc1184 wrote: »

What do people think of Grandouet's chances running against Unaccompanied today? Unaccompanied is an excellent horse and is rightly favourite but I just have a bit of a niggling for Grandouet today.

thanks markc1184, great call on Grandouet. Looks like your having some week. :pac:

Denners.ie

Grandouet was impressive there, crazy price to go off 7/2 considering he would have had solid form if he wasn't brought down at Aintree.

Got right up to a meter of Hurricane Fly in the parade ring yesterday as nobody would brave the rain before the race, what an amazing horse. Romped home in spectacular fashion.

donegal92

Just put cash on treble 2012 Cheltenham. Hurricane in ch, big bucks in world hurdle and Quevega in mares race. Got around 11/1. I know I'm taking a chance with Quevega and what race she'll go in.

Anyone out there agree or disagree?