Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Summer 2011

M.T. Cranium

I'm also expecting this thunderstorm event to peak in southeast England tomorrow evening and overnight ... looks like it may come together rather slowly on Monday afternoon as frontal dynamics are weak, but eventually clusters of heavy thunderstorms will probably form in both southeast England and northeast France and will then merge into a powerful meso-scale cluster that may bring frequent lightning to London and the southeast. It may last through the night especially to the east of London and as the met office are warning, heavy rainfalls and large hail are possible. Dynamics do not favour wind gusts much over 30 mph but sometimes you find one cell that produces stronger gusts near the Channel, more likely to be on the French side however.

jimmynokia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm also expecting this thunderstorm event to peak in southeast England tomorrow evening and overnight ... looks like it may come together rather slowly on Monday afternoon as frontal dynamics are weak, but eventually clusters of heavy thunderstorms will probably form in both southeast England and northeast France and will then merge into a powerful meso-scale cluster that may bring frequent lightning to London and the southeast. It may last through the night especially to the east of London and as the met office are warning, heavy rainfalls and large hail are possible. Dynamics do not favour wind gusts much over 30 mph but sometimes you find one cell that produces stronger gusts near the Channel, more likely to be on the French side however.

So whats the chances of dublin or the east coast getting some action in the coming days?

darkman2

There is an increasing risk of thunderstorm activity over Ireland on Tuesday but more of the scattered shower variety. But not tomorrow unfortunately. Real action tomorrow night over Southeast England as MT has been saying.

BEASTERLY

jimmynokia wrote: »

So whats the chances of dublin or the east coast getting some action in the coming days?

0

Iancar29

BEASTERLY wrote: »

0

I concur.....

weisses

up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on tuesday :eek:

should have booked a flight home (ned) for this

Tornando9

Looks like southeast Uk is in more favourable conditions for supercell development than the whole of France.

Decent helicity combined with some very dry air to the SE should make things very interesting for a few hours.

The atmosphere becomes very saturated through all levels as the evening rolls on so i think this event will be over before the sun sets.

weisses

Tornando9 wrote: »

Looks like southeast Uk is in more favourable conditions for supercell development than the whole of France.

Decent helicity combined with some very dry air to the SE should make things very interesting for a few hours.

The atmosphere becomes very saturated through all levels as the evening rolls on so i think this event will be over before the sun sets.

http://www.estofex.org/

Tuesday is gonna be the day

Tornando9

weisses wrote: »

http://www.estofex.org/

Tuesday is gonna be the day

That forecast is for monday and valid until tuesday. Uk is under a very stable airmass on tuesday with 0% chance of storms on latest GFS.

EDIT: Unless your talking about france which is looking tasty for tuesday. My bad

Tornando9

Ok Tuesday is a good setup for France,Netherlands and Belguim.

CAPE looks to be around 4000-4500 J/Kg which is insane for Europe.
Lifted Index is excellent at around -10.
Shear could be better.
Lapse rates are good.

I'd give anything to be in France for this.

weisses

Yeah that looks insane

the may 3 1999 F5 in Oklahoma had a cape of 5800 ..... If they get a proper shear in France their F***ed or am i missing more ingredients ?

Are these storms moving northeast into Belgium and the Netherlands ?

darkman2

Tornando9 wrote: »

That forecast is for monday and valid until tuesday

I think he is talking about Ireland which is forecast to have enough instability for scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon particularly further East and North. But nothing in any way severe or comparable to parts of the continent.

Trogdor

Tornando9 wrote: »

Ok Tuesday is a good setup for France,Netherlands and Belguim.

CAPE looks to be around 4000-4500 J/Kg which is insane for Europe.
Lifted Index is excellent at around -10.
Shear could be better.
Lapse rates are good.

I'd give anything to be in France for this.


http://photos4.media.pix.ie/E0/35/E0350839B3254B2D9BDCCC8DB4F3B142-0000336016-0002396857-01024L-35DA42663932457B837D6040860D6B84.png

Just happen to be driving from Strasbourg to Calais on Tuesday, should be a fun day!:D

Tornando9

trogdor wrote: »

Just happen to be driving from Strasbourg to Calais on Tuesday, should be a fun day!:D

Hope you have a camcorder. I was supposed to be in london today but it got moved to wednesday i'm absolutely fuming.

GFS has overcooked the situation slightly and CAPE is going to be more like 3000-3500 J/Kg but that should be enough for very large hail.

Wind Shear is rather weak.

Lapse rates aren't very steep but still decent.

Iancar29

The Net weather team has put the live stream on for today .

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaseliveuk;sess=

jimmynokia

plenty of action.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wist;sess=

roryc1

Wow look at that cell forming over northern France
http://www.sat24.com/

jimmynokia

cool
here is an irish site with weather live.Dont know how good it is just came across it.

http://www.irlweather.com/wxlive.php

BEASTERLY

Just watched this rotate energetically for the last 15 mins, no funnels to be seen though!

darkman2

Disappointment for them in Southeast/Central England. Looks like those storms won't materialise after all. A risk of some imports clipping Kent and East tip of Norfolk from France later on. The stuff in the west will die out with not much in the way of lightning.

darkman2

Cell over North East France is now the size of a small country.



http://wolken.buienradar.nl/nl

roryc1

From nothing to that in two and a half hours, incredible

Iancar29

roryc1 wrote: »

Wow look at that cell forming over northern France
http://www.sat24.com/

Peter ( Trogdor) is in that area ........... 2moro ha

lolie

darkman2 wrote: »

Cell over North East France is now the size of a small country.



http://wolken.buienradar.nl/nl

Some looking beast over northwest france atm. Looks bigger than the one earlier. Lucky feckers

thebiglewbowski

Possible the most impressive looking storm i have ever spotted on sat24 lol. its half the size of france!

delw

thebiglewbowski wrote: »

Possible the most impressive looking storm i have ever spotted on sat24 lol. its half the size of france!

imagine that over ireland :eek:

Redsunset

That Baby can sit over my head anytime.

Duiske

Fireworks really going off over there.

darkman2

The far south east of England could get walloped in the next hour or so.

Deep Easterly

delw wrote: »

imagine that over ireland :eek:

I just can't..