Scotland on verge of becoming an independant nation, how long before NI falls?

gonedrinking

So it looks like the SNP are doing very well in the elections and they are promising to hold a referendum for independence around 2014 or 2015. Given the amount of support for the party it would seem the people will overwhelmingly vote yes for independence.

Isn't it about time Northern Ireland got a referendum on independance? I think more and more of the protestants in NI are open to the idea of being an independent nation, they know they need to be able to set their own tax rates and rules in order to prosper, at the minute they are in a straightjacket.

Fukuyama

No it's not.

There was a small movement that supported Scottish independence during the boom years as they wanted to be like Ireland. Now that the UK is fecked aswell, they're holding on for dear life!!

Now feck off with these threads... :mad:

ronano

You need to read the polls more my friend, there is support for the snp but not a majority for independence. If it's put to the people in the next 5 years it will not pass, snp will probably aim to get more powers eg. corp tax decentralised to scotland and put the ref. to the people but it won't pass. It's a pity because it would be much more interesting to watch if scotland became their own state.

Dotsie~tmp

Dean0088 wrote: »

No it's not.

There was a small movement that supported Scottish independence during the boom years as they wanted to be like Ireland. Now that the UK is fecked aswell, they're holding on for dear life!!

Now feck off with these threads... :mad:

Acch! Ya dinnay nuu whut yer talking aboot.

raymann

gonedrinking wrote: »

So it looks like the SNP are doing very well in the elections and they are promising to hold a referendum for independence around 2014 or 2015. Given the amount of support for the party it would seem the people will overwhelmingly vote yes for independence.

Isn't it about time Northern Ireland got a referendum on independance? I think more and more of the protestants in NI are open to the idea of being an independent nation, they know they need to be able to set their own tax rates and rules in order to prosper, at the minute they are in a straightjacket.

no. simply no. there is absolutely zero confidence in the labour party after brown and blairs reign of terror and the chance of the torys ever getting voted in is about the same as al queda winning. so the snp are the best choice for a lot of people.

but independence? every opinion poll says no and its generally not even close.

Predator_

Be great to see. All people should rule themselves.

Run_to_da_hills

As lomg as Scotland or NI remains a part of the EU they will will never become independent nations. :rolleyes:

mrsoundie

While watching BBC coverage of the election, it was brought up that the SNP did not even have nationalism on their agenda and it was neither brought up.

So to deduct that the would now go for independence is stretching it a bit.

And as far I can tell the scots are not that stupid to see separation from england and wales as something to look forward to.

super_furry

The Scottish independence referendum won't pass and neither would a Northern Ireland one.

Canis Lupus

Predator_ wrote: »

Be great to see. All people should rule themselves.

Everyones house should be an independent nation?

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

Capt'n Midnight

NI independent ?

find out what the word demographics means , it will come in handy later


There were three chances of NI leaving the UK
- just after partition , but Dev scuppered that by [causing/allowing] the civil war to divert resouces away from the project
- during WWII when Churchill hinted that if we joined up we'd get NI , Dev was 110% right not to believe it (the fact that the Unionists would have the balance of power was and still is a major factor)
- during the boom when for the first time it looked like we had more cash to win hearts and minds than the UK. (Housing, health and education up there are way better than down here so don't expect a lot of support from either side to join with ROI)

NI has even less natural resources then we have, IIRC they do have a salt mine.

NI is too small to go it alone. It receives billions from the UK each year.
The strategy back in the 20's should have been to win back the Nationalist areas where you'd have 80-90% of the vote, piece by piece through economic warefare, simple stuff like a wee bit of wealth transfer to entice peoples southward/westward. Once you got two counties then NI as a viable entity would have been even less likely.

AndrewJD

Being Scottish, I can say that there's a minority of impassioned people seeking independence, and a vast majority of largely apathetic people who are fine with things the way they are. Independence will not happen.

Agricola

In order for NI to become independant there would have to be a majority of people who see themselves as "Northern Irish" - The problem is NI doesnt have a national identity. Unionists think of themselves as British people who are living on an outpost and separated from "the mainland" while the Republicans want to come back into this state. How could this scenario ever lead to NI being independant!

Fratton Fred

Predator_ wrote: »

Be great to see. All people should rule themselves.

To what level? should we abolish government completely?

AndrewJD wrote: »

Being Scottish, I can say that there's a minority of impassioned people seeking independence, and a vast majority of largely apathetic people who are fine with things the way they are. Independence will not happen.

I was going to post a similar thing. Pretty every single Scotsman I know couldn't really give a monkey's chuff about independance but despise the Tories and are dissilusioned by labour, so the SNP is the only other logical place to vote.

Predator_

Canis Lupus wrote: »

Everyones house should be an independent nation?

You know what I meant:rolleyes:

chunkylover4

gonedrinking wrote: »

So it looks like the SNP are doing very well in the elections and they are promising to hold a referendum for independence around 2014 or 2015. Given the amount of support for the party it would seem the people will overwhelmingly vote yes for independence.

Isn't it about time Northern Ireland got a referendum on independance? I think more and more of the protestants in NI are open to the idea of being an independent nation, they know they need to be able to set their own tax rates and rules in order to prosper, at the minute they are in a straightjacket.

If they were independent they would fall into economic collalpse reasonably quickly and since we have done a decent job of doing that ourselves I personally don't think we would want them.

windsurfer99ie

AndrewJD wrote: »

Being Scottish, I can say that there's a minority of impassioned people seeking independence, and a vast majority of largely apathetic people who are fine with things the way they are. Independence will not happen.

I agree. Being English, and having lived in Scotland for some years - I think Salmond has a good case for concessions on the corporate tax rate (as do Wales and NI). I'm not sure how that could be implemented though.

PatsytheNazi

Fratton Fred wrote: »

To what level? should we abolish government completely?



I was going to post a similar thing. Pretty every single Scotsman I know couldn't really give a monkey's chuff about independance but despise the Tories and are dissilusioned by labour, so the SNP is the only other logical place to vote.

Welll like as your english friend getz from Dalkeyalso would say,, themany Scottish despise the english evenmore, Wou ld you agree ?.. But as hesaid recently, " he spend so much time in ireland,he keep forgetting what he am,no he do not have a passport to look at to remind me, "

windsurfer99ie

I think the situation in NI is similiar. I think it is a mistake to assume that because people vote for SF, that they would also vote for Independence. Increasingly, people vote in their own economic interests.

That is precisely what is going on in Scotland. Salmond has been a very effective advocate for Scottish economic interests and people are voting for him for that reason. Salmond will not call for a referendum on Independence for five years because he knows he cannot win it at the moment, as previous posters have stated.

Dotsie~tmp

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Welll like as your english friend getz from Dalkeyalso would say,, themany Scottish despise the english evenmore, Wou ld you agree ?.. But as hesaid recently, " he spend so much time in ireland,he keep forgetting what he am,no he do not have a passport to look at to remind me, "

Has one side of your face begun to sag?

Mike 1972

gonedrinking wrote: »

Given the amount of support for the party it would seem the people will overwhelmingly vote yes for independence.

45%

Yeah I can see how an Independent Scotland is an inevitability allright :rolleyes:

Pauleta

Scotland would last about 5 minutes on their own. Its 3rd world enough as it is. If they were independent, they would be the Moldova of Western Europe.

Nodin

Pauleta wrote: »

Scotland would last about 5 minutes on their own. Its 3rd world enough as it is.........

How is Scotland "3rd world enough as it is"? Do explain please.

Berns

Would like to see how indepentent NI would work out. Surely there'd be a civil war tbh but maybe it would actually get rid of all the arguments about religion and stuff if the loosin party got shifted outta the country to UK or Ireland. Don't think UK or Ireland particularly want NI tbh but they won't come and come out and say get the ****. Wish they would :rolleyes:

RE:Scotland, think was mentioned on Sky news that someone said they would hold the referendum towards the end of their term as they weren't hopeful on it, but wanted to get other motions passed beforehand that might be more acheiveable etc.

charlemont

Scotland doesnt have the confidence to go alone, We Irish barely have the confidence ourselves never mind the Scots, As for NI, can anyone imagine that place being independent, It would split apart very quick with border counties joining the Republic..

Scotlands best bet is to carry on with the Scottish Parliament, get more autonomy and gradually show the people they can look after their own affairs ad once they become confident in their own abilities, They can decide then..

Pauleta

Nodin wrote: »

How is Scotland "3rd world enough as it is"? Do explain please.

Its an absolute dive of a place.

R P McMurphy

Pauleta wrote: »

Its an absolute dive of a place.

Pretty poor comment. Have you ever actually been to Scotland or are you basing your views on having watched trainspotting?

dpe

Nodin wrote: »

How is Scotland "3rd world enough as it is"? Do explain please.

Scotland has the worst life expectancy in western Europe and the devolved assembly only works because it gets huge injections of cash from England (if the Scottish Office was dissolved that could pay off England's balance of payments on its own). None of my Scottish friends would vote for independence, but they do get bristly when English people have a go about subsidies and the East Lothian Question. And the pro-independence minority still think they can go it alone off the back of the remaining oil reserves (which they really can't).

The greatest likelihood of Scottish or NI independence isn't the locals voting for it, its if the English were even given an independent voice of their own; the English would dump the celtic countries so fast it would make your head spin.

mgmt

Scotland can't rely on oil, their North Sea reserves peaked in 1999 and declining now by 8% a year. The SNP could push the corporation tax argument during a referendum. Also the Nuclear Submarines are based in Scotland. I'm sure a massive jobs and money spinner.

Pauleta

R P McMurphy wrote: »

Pretty poor comment. Have you ever actually been to Scotland or are you basing your views on having watched trainspotting?

Yes i have been there and its a dive

Nodin

Pauleta wrote: »

Its an absolute dive of a place.

Pauleta wrote: »

Yes i have been there and its a dive .

An incisive bit of analysis there. I'm glad to see you're keeping to your usual standard.

Do carry on.

steddyeddy

This might sound strange but I think theres more people in northern Ireland that want either independance from Britian and forming a united Ireland or to be an independant state. As regard the people of the uk I think more people in the uk want a united Ireland or independant NI than an independant Scotland.

Nodin

The whole notion comes and goes over there, from what I can gather. The fact is that they're slowly working towards de facto independence regardless. I'd imagine thats what Salmond is going to go for this administration, much as he's done previously.

At some stage down the line it will probably be just a case of a referendum to acknowledge the reality of the position they've arrived at, though my fat carcass may not be round to witness it.

Morzadec

I work with a few Scots and one of them told me that he is voting SNP but is 100% against Scotland leaving the UK.

Seems to be a common view from what he was telling me - they have done a lot of good things for Scotland so they are popular but this doesn't necessarily mean that the majority of people there want independence

steddyeddy

Just curious but what is the rest of the uk's opinion of Scotland leaving the uk?

Capt'n Midnight

Pauleta wrote: »

Scotland would last about 5 minutes on their own. Its 3rd world enough as it is. If they were independent, they would be the Moldova of Western Europe.

The only chance they had was North Sea oil, but the money went south

Corporation tax might be interesting maybe

Gas could be big in the future , but if it is then UK won't let them go

pow wow

NI couldn't afford it, not now and not any time soon.

grizzly

Pauleta wrote: »

Scotland would last about 5 minutes on their own. Its 3rd world enough as it is. If they were independent, they would be the Moldova of Western Europe.

It has its share of of underprivileged areas yes, but calling it 3rd world just makes your post sound ignorant.

PK2008

No country is really independent

Guy:Incognito

Predator_ wrote: »

You know what I meant:rolleyes:

So it just depends on how long ago a particular border was decided by people? Why cant people decide on new borders now as they see fit? What makes the old ones any more valid?Just cos its old?

Badgermonkey

Predator_ wrote: »

Be great to see. All people should rule themselves.

Self-discipline, try it sometime.

mike65

Just as well Scotland isn't already independent, the Bank of Scotland/RBS fiacso would have buried them. They know that London tax payers are basicly keeping them afloat right now.

dj jarvis

Dean0088 wrote: »

No it's not.

There was a small movement that supported Scottish independence during the boom years as they wanted to be like Ireland. Now that the UK is fecked aswell, they're holding on for dear life!!

Now feck off with these threads... :mad:

sorry dean but the snp have said from day one if they get a majority the WILL hold a referendum on Independence , the electorate know this and still gave a majority - hence you have to assume the majority WANT independence

as for the uk being fecked you are 100% correct , poss 1 trillion in debt - sterling is worthless because of QE and printing far to much currency

so tell me again why its not the perfect time for Scotland to do a runner
as a Independent nation the can borrow to sustain themselves - dont need the rest of the union - NI does not have this available to them , and the majority want to stay in the union , so totally different animals

cant wait to see how the english react when the scots take the oil from ITS sovereign waters

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13319936

Amhran Nua

I'd be well in favour of an independent Scottish state, most Scots I know are lovely people and no shortage of brains or creativity either. Independence is probably the best way for them to reach their full potential, and no doubt they would receive a warm welcome into the community of nations from our own government.

sollar

Scottish independence is far more likely that a united ireland thanks to all the bombs and bullets.

steddyeddy

mike65 wrote: »

Just as well Scotland isn't already independent, the Bank of Scotland/RBS fiacso would have buried them. They know that London tax payers are basicly keeping them afloat right now.

How do london taxpayers feel about that?

Donkey Oaty

dj jarvis wrote: »

sorry dean but the snp have said from day one if they get a majority the WILL hold a referendum on Independence , the electorate know this and still gave a majority - hence you have to assume the majority WANT independence

Or maybe they just want the SNP to run their non-Westminster affairs.

Opinion polls on independence are still not in the SNP's favour at the moment, but things could get interesting...

Amhran Nua

Is there anywhere one can donate to the SNP?

sollar

Amhran Nua wrote: »

I'd be well in favour of an independent Scottish state, most Scots I know are lovely people and no shortage of brains or creativity either.

And they are as tight as a flea's arse and very shrewd too. They would never have let a man like bertie into office to ruin them.

steddyeddy

sollar wrote: »

Scottish independence is far more likely that a united ireland thanks to all the bombs and bullets.

Well the thing about independance is that there is two countries in it. In the case of northern Ireland there is three. A large number of the people in the uk would love free of NI and its because of the bombs and bullets they desire to be free of it.