Scotland on verge of becoming an independant nation, how long before NI falls?

youreadthat

KINGVictor wrote: »

Yeah I understand your position but coming back to the land of reality and facts- where did you pluck out that 65% pro-independence figure from?

From thinner air than that Austrian dude jumped from.

Jimoslimos

I don't think it will happen, although if it did I think they could make a pretty good go of it.

The issue does raise questions of what the 'Union' actually is. If Scotland, NI or Wales left then the UK still remains intact with the other nations. However if England left, the whole system falls apart - hardly an equal standing among countries.

Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, unless there is the most remarkable turnaround in attitudes over the next two years. And I don't see that happening.

28064212

delad wrote: »

Have another go at reading the page I linked and you will see where it says 65% woud vote for independance.

Most of the people in Northern Ireland are catholics who want a united Ireland, most protestants I know would also vote for a united Ireland. Your days of the pound and the crown are numbered, enjoy it while it lasts.

Lol, there's only one mention of 65% on that page. It's a link to a separate piece by an economy editor. He says:

If independence made them £500 better off, 65% of Scots told one poll they'd vote for it.

But if it made them as much worse off, only 21%.

You need to brush up on your reading comprehension

The only significant poll done recently shows the unionist side have a 25-point lead: http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/independence-blow-as-support-for-union-soars.19077088

LordSutch

I too agree that its highly unlikely, but if Scotland did leave the Uk, then I wonder how their departure would effect the Barnett Formula? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula logically with five million fewer peole in the UK and one less country to support, Northern Ireland & Wales would do very well financially after Scotlands departure.

Mr_Spaceman

A nonsense thread title actually.

A lot of people who vote SNP did so because they were fed up with a Labour hegemony. The same people are happy enough with an SNP-led devolved parliament, with advantages such as free prescriptions, but they would never support full independence.

Only about 30% of the Scots electorate are in favour of independence. And even then it is dependence on Brussels and EU membership.

There's so much uncertainty about what the future might hold - particularly in an economic sense - and many Scots are quite comfortable with their dual Scottish and British identity.

A few years ago, Alex Salmond urged Scotland to join the 'arc of prosperity' along with Ireland and Iceland. Look what happened there! And this is supposed to be a guy leading Scots into a promised land?

Like Northern Ireland, at the end of the day, people know what side their bread is buttered on. I have no doubt whatsoever that the majority of Scots will vote no to independence.

cafecolour

IMHO Scotland and NI will become independent only after maybe 10+ years when the central EU government is more centralized and more dominant than the individual member countries. As in it will be 'independence' in name only.

For instance, if it gets to the point of the EU doing even more of the European subsidizing directly, than Scotland/NI/etc. can all leave the UK and get ruled (and get money from) by the EU directly, instead of via the UK government.

Or maybe this whole 'climate change' bit turns Scotland into the best beach vacation spot in Europe and they get the money that way

Mr_Spaceman

Pauleta wrote: »

Scotland would last about 5 minutes on their own. Its 3rd world enough as it is. If they were independent, they would be the Moldova of Western Europe.

Third world?

Complete and utter bull**** and obvious trolling.

There are financial institutions in Edinburgh who could buy and sell south Dublin a hundred times over, with a thriving private sector.

The UK treasury hasn't been dominated by canny Scots for generations for no reason.

Sulla Felix

Predator_ wrote: »

You know what I meant:rolleyes:

Good to know you acknowledge the right of Norther Irish Unionists to their own self determination. Or is it just "people" you like?

Iwasfrozen

citytillidie wrote: »

Eh Wales was like Ireland split up into Kingdoms and was only once a full Kingdom under Gruffydd ap Llywelyn when he died it was split up again until William the conqueror took it for England

In the UK.

Predator_ wrote: »

You know what I meant:rolleyes:

Obviously Unionists aren't people.

super_furry

Isn't it in the Conservatives interest for Scotland to go Independent anyway? It's an almost exclusively Labour/SNP voting regoin.

Iwasfrozen

super_furry wrote: »

Isn't it in the Conservatives interest for Scotland to go Independent anyway? It's an almost exclusively Labour/SNP voting regoin.

Practically it's in their interest but they're ideologically against it.

Funglegunk

delad wrote: »

Have another go at reading the page I linked and you will see where it says 65% woud vote for independance.

It says 65% would vote for indepedence if it made them £500 better off. If it made them worse off, 21%.

Leftist

Ni will fall? sounds horribly insulting language to use.

Madam

As much as it pains me to say this(I'm a SNP voter)I don't think Scotland will gain independence in 2014. It will be a close run thing though and with 16 and 17 year olds being allowed to vote it will sure be a help to up the figures. Saying that I find the older middle class folk will vote to stay within the UK(or at least the ones I've spoken too).

But hey ho - we are living in interesting times in Scotland and you just never know:)

Chuck Stone

Seems impractical.

Madam

Chuck Stone wrote: »

Seems impractical.

What does?

1ZRed

Phoenix wrote: »

Alba gu bràth

Scots Gaelic is surprisingly easy to understand

Chuck Stone

Madam wrote: »

What does?

Just.. you know.. making two countries.. with all the bureaucracy and all that..

no?

ScumLord

Scotland is currently going through it's own boom. It may be a bit false as the Brits are pumping millions into the country in the form of grants for all sorts of stuff but there's plenty of Irish working over there now.

As for N.I I think they'd be daft to change their current situation, they have the favour of the Irish republic, the UK and Europe. Now that there's peace up there and they can get down to business they're sitting pretty with the best of all worlds. National borders are going to mean less and less as time goes by but on paper they have money coming at them from all sides.

I couldn't give a damn what they do as long as it's peaceful, I can drive to Belfast and it's barely any different from driving to any other city on the island bar a few minor differences.

Madam

ScumLord wrote: »

I couldn't give a damn what they do as long as it's peaceful, I can drive to Belfast and it's barely any different from driving to any other city on the island bar a few minor differences.

Vive those minor differences;)

bb1234567

Pauleta wrote: »

Scotland would last about 5 minutes on their own. Its 3rd world enough as it is. If they were independent, they would be the Moldova of Western Europe.

Sorry but thats not true at all, Scotland is far from a 3rd world country. Youve clearly never been to a 3rd world country...or even a 2nd world country. And I think theyre just called 'developing countries' now instead.

Iwasfrozen

bb1234567 wrote: »

Sorry but thats not true at all, Scotland is far from a 3rd world country. Youve clearly never been to a 3rd world country...or even a 2nd world country. And I think theyre just called 'developing countries' now instead.

Developing country always sounds presumptuous to me.

asherbassad

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

NI independent ?

find out what the word demographics means , it will come in handy later


There were three chances of NI leaving the UK
- just after partition , but Dev scuppered that by [causing/allowing] the civil war to divert resouces away from the project
- during WWII when Churchill hinted that if we joined up we'd get NI , Dev was 110% right not to believe it (the fact that the Unionists would have the balance of power was and still is a major factor)
- during the boom when for the first time it looked like we had more cash to win hearts and minds than the UK. (Housing, health and education up there are way better than down here so don't expect a lot of support from either side to join with ROI)

NI has even less natural resources then we have, IIRC they do have a salt mine.

NI is too small to go it alone. It receives billions from the UK each year.
The strategy back in the 20's should have been to win back the Nationalist areas where you'd have 80-90% of the vote, piece by piece through economic warefare, simple stuff like a wee bit of wealth transfer to entice peoples southward/westward. Once you got two counties then NI as a viable entity would have been even less likely.

What's with this "too small to go it alone" bullsh!t?

Northern Ireland is a giant with its 5,300 sq. miles compared to minnows like Liechtenstein (62 sqm), Maldives (115 sqm), Seychelles (107), Malta (122), Barbados (166), Andorra (180), etc., etc.

But if you're banging on about population then Northern Ireland's 1.8 million dwarfs (or at least significantly exceeds) the following:

(Again) Seychelles, Liechtenstein, LUXEMBOURG, ICELAND, MALTA,

As well as

Belize
Bahamas
Suriname
Brunei
Bahrain
Cyprus
Qatar
Estonia
Botswana
Gambia
Mauritius

..to name but a few.

What are the grounds for your "too small to go it alone" stance?

Dominica has less than half the population of County Fcukin Louth. They seem to manage.

asherbassad

asherbassad wrote: »

What's with this "too small to go it alone" bullsh!t?

Northern Ireland is a giant with its 5,300 sq. miles compared to minnows like Liechtenstein (62 sqm), Maldives (115 sqm), Seychelles (107), Malta (122), Barbados (166), Andorra (180), etc., etc.

But if you're banging on about population then Northern Ireland's 1.8 million dwarfs (or at least significantly exceeds) the following:

(Again) Seychelles, Liechtenstein, LUXEMBOURG, ICELAND, MALTA,

As well as

Belize
Bahamas
Suriname
Brunei
Bahrain
Cyprus
Qatar
Estonia
Botswana
Gambia
Mauritius

..to name but a few.

What are the grounds for your "too small to go it alone" stance?

Dominica has less than half the population of County Fcukin Louth. They seem to manage.

It's more to do with the relative size of the population/infrastructure their taxes need to pay for that determines whether a country can finance itself or not, a large poor country with a small population can't afford decent roads for example.

Having abundent natural resources/tax haven status is a gamechanger.

Mal-Adjusted

dhmusic wrote: »

no thanks to the 6 counties, Dublin and Cork have enough rural villages to subsidise as it is without adding more.

funny, I thought Ireland was being paid for by the EU

asherbassad

Deleted User wrote: »

It's more to do with the relative size of the population/infrastructure their taxes need to pay for that determines whether a country can finance itself or not, a large poor country with a small population can't afford decent roads for example.

Having abundent natural resources/tax haven status is a gamechanger.

As per the examples I have given, Northern Ireland is not "too small" to go it alone. That's just a cliche with no backup or basis in fact.

Can NI finance itself? I don't know. I'm not an economist, demographer or geopolitical specialist. I can't say what kind of GDP NI would have but there appears to be plenty of fertile land there. Also no shortage of water what with rain and the two largest fresh water lakes on the whole island. An extensive coastline for fisheries and windpower are substantial industries. They have a skilled workforce. Obviously the heavy industry and textiles is long gone (they've gone from the North of England too). But they are currently trying to bring their corporation tax rate in line with the ROI in order to attract foreign investment. Being independent they could do this with the stroke of a pen.
Personally I think the place is a friggin mess that should be towed out an sunk but that's besides the point. They are not too small to go it alone. Do you think the worst of the ghettoes in an independent NI would be worse than the sh!ttiest inner-city slums in the US?