Daily Naps

Dailynaps

Will log my best bets here each day. I specialise in place betting so most bets will come from Betfair place market and I also have a good record in the big Grade/Group 1s. Always looking for value and trying to find a favourite to oppose.

95% of bets will be placed with Betfair and I plan on posting screen shots once a week(ish) showing prices and profit/loss.

Will start tomorrow.

Dailynaps

Will go for a few shorties today (Some very short!). Would love to put reasoning but busy busy busy!

All 1pt place with Betfair
2.00 Goodwood Glee 1.17
2.00 Goodwood Falls of Flora 1.94
6.50 Worcester Kings Legacy 1.14

UrbanSea

Was that a mistake,1.17?

L'prof

UrbanSea wrote: »

Was that a mistake,1.17?

Doubt it:

Dailynaps wrote: »

Will go for a few shorties today (Some very short!).

All 1pt place with Betfair

Dailynaps

UrbanSea wrote: »

Was that a mistake,1.17?

Nope 1.17 to place.

I like to think of myself as a place betting specialist I've been profitable (with low returns) with several different approaches to betting over the years but discovered that price discrepancies can be found easier in the place markets.

It seems the markets are more irrational here than in the win market. I usually find the market underestimates a short favs chance of placing when there are only 2 places. It's usually the opposite when there are 3 places (with 8-10 runners), with outsiders usually being over-priced to place.

Will be interesting to keep an eye on in the long-term.

Dailynaps

Few extra details - Bets range from 1pt-5pts with each point representing 1% of starting bank

All 1pt place today:
2.40 Southwell Basantee 1.5
2.30 Wetherby Bedizen 1.34
3.15 Southwell La Estrella 1.09
3.15 Southwell Crystal Celebre 3.7

Dailynaps

Both 1pt place:
5.50 Sandown Huma Bird 1.44
6.00 Salisbury Light Burst 1.7

Dailynaps

1pt win
4.20 Curragh Lolly for Dolly 2.16

Very impressive this season, developing into a real Group horse, should be more suited by 8 furlongs today and rain will be a big advantage.

Dailynaps

2pts place
3.35 Auteuil Thousand Stars 2.36

Should be odds on imo, ultra consistent and looks to be improving with every run, looked to really appreciate stepping up to 2m4f at Aintree and extra furlong here should be okay.

Dailynaps

1pt place
3.15 Leicester Mr Dream Maker 1.77

Gets in off bottom weight on first handicap start, would be surprised if he didn't improve as 3yo.

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
3.45 Leicester Jack's Revenge 1.21
4.15 Leicester Right to Dream 1.42
4.30 Redcar O Ma Lad 1.81
6.55 Yarmouth Albaasil 1.56

Dream Maker 4th

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
2.20 Cartmel Beau Fighter 1.21
2.40 Nottingham Manoori 1.28
4.50 Nottingham Submission 1.32
5.35 Cartmel Ardesia 1.28
6.40 Ripon Right Result 1.25
7.10 Ripon Major Eradicator 1.47

Looking forward to some good racing on Friday!!

Moffo

I only spotted this thread yesterday. Very well done, a full house of places yesterday witha couple of winners thrown in.

Dailynaps

Moffo wrote: »

I only spotted this thread yesterday. Very well done, a full house of places yesterday witha couple of winners thrown in.

Thanks, in the long-run I hope they'll break even ish on the win part but be up on the place part, that would be my ideal!

1 early one:
1pt place
2.10 Hamilton The Clan Macdonald 2.04

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
2.30 Southwell Formal Demand 1.54
2.40 Hamilton Cherries Magic 1.24
2.40 Hamilton Prince of Vasa 1.38
3.20 Lingfield Shielmaiden 1.46
3.40 Hamilton Klynch 1.5
3.50 Lingfield Red Alpha 1.23
4.20 Lingfield Illaungass 1.23
4.40 Hamilton Fire Fughter 1.34

2pts place
2.20 Lingfield Guards Chapel 2.7


Maybe even more later on!

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

Thanks, in the long-run I hope they'll break even ish on the win part but be up on the place part, that would be my ideal!

And after saying that I have first four winners today, but only backed to place :eek: Ah well, profit is profit!

Dailynaps

2 more

Both 1pt place
6.20 Wetherby Dar Es Salaam 1.35
8.25 Uttoxeter Suburban Bay 1.23

Dailynaps

1pt ew
1.40 Epsom Timepiece 7/4 Paddy Power

Have to oppose Antara, think they should be around joint favourites and Timepiece looks too big to place as well.

Dailynaps

Both 1pt place
2.45 Epsom St Nicholas Abbey 1.38
4.05 Epsom Misty for Me 2.82
Showed her quality when winning Irish Guineas, matching Blue Bunting's form on a line through Together. Very hard to say which is stable first string, Seamie Heffernan keeps the ride and wouldn't take that as a negative as Fallon didn't have the choice.

2pts ew
2.45 Epsom Midday 11/8 Boyles
Think Midday should prob be fav but St Nic will place too. Midday clearly better on all form and gets 3lbs!

1pt ew
4.05 Wonder of Wonders 7/2 Will Hill 1/3 odds ew AND Money back if fav wins when backed through RP app How could it not be value!!

Dailynaps

One quick one
1pt place
1.40 Epsom Boogie Shoes 1.58

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
2.35 Musselburgh Es Que Love 1.41
3.35 Worcester Ghimaar 1.64
3.55 Doncaster War Poet 1.52
7.30 Newcastle Westlin Winds 1.44

1pt ew
4.00 Epsom Native Khan 11/1 Bet365 (1/3 1,2,3)
Market seems to be writing him off thinking he won't get the trip but, while that is a possibility, he was staying on strongly in the Guineas and certainly has the class to win a Derby.

P.S. Absolutely delighted Kieren Fallon will be sitting out, thoroughly deserved! I hope he has to pay damages too, haven't seen a figure yet.

Dailynaps

One more 1pt place
8.30 Newcastle Laashak 1.62

Dailynaps

Both 1pt place
2.30 Perth Priors Gold 1.12
2.35 Listowel President Lincoln 1.49

Dailynaps

1pt ew
2.45 Newton Abbot Baccalaureate 7/1 Boyles
3.10 Naas Glor na Mara 6.8 win 2.5 place
8.15 Windsor Royal Etiquette 12 win 3 place

1pt place
4.40 Naas Teolane 1.25
5.00 Folkestone Junoob 1.32

IK09

what are your percentages?

Dailynaps

IK09 wrote: »

what are your percentages?

Will tell you after 100 bets, currently on 53

L'prof

Dailynaps wrote: »

Will tell you after 100 bets, currently on 53

Seems like a good idea for a log, but it's too hard to hold any real interest without regular updates!

Dailynaps

L'prof wrote: »

Seems like a good idea for a log, but it's too hard to hold any real interest without regular updates!

All in good time. Good or bad, you don't get a realistic picture with a small sample size!

All 1pt place
3.55 Salisbury Emilio Largo 1.75
7.20 Southwell Smart Freddie 1.19

1pt ew treble (Coral)
6.45 Southwell King Ozzy 9/2
7.20 Southwell Smart Freddie 11/10
8.30 Southwell Mzuri Bay 7/2

Lawney Hill's form in last two months over hurdles reads 11137113F1.

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

Lawney Hill's form in last two months over hurdles reads 11137113F1 and now add 313

1pt place
2.20 Haydock Udabaa 1.42

Penguino

Dailynaps wrote: »

1pt place
2.20 Haydock Udabaa 1.42

Great work.

Also super stats on Lawney Hill.

Dailynaps

Penguino wrote: »

Great work.

Also super stats on Lawney Hill.

Thanks! Super lady is Lawney, very under-rated... Backing her blindly on jumps and AW will steer you the right way.

1pt place
5.10 Nottingham Miss Topsy Turvy 1.38
8.55 Leopardstown Notable Graduate 1.24

2pts each way
8.55 Leopardstown Manieree 20/1 Boyles
No way should she be 20s, all four career starts look solid, beat Wonder of Wonders here last year on good ground and ran creditably on softer this season - hopefully will be better on quicker ground. Should be there at the business end and the 4/1 to place here looks huge!

2pts win 2pts place
5.20 Newbury Lady Lam 5.3 win 1.81 place
Beaten 5 lengths by Fav here last month but enjoys a 10lb swing in the weights here. PLUS has one of the best claimers on board in Brendan Powell Jnr who looks very classy to me even after only a few rides, clearly gaining plenty of experience from the pony racing circuit in Ireland. Backing this jockey claiming 5lbs in amateur riders' races may well seem ridiculous in a few months!