June 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 27-05-2011 6:08pm #1

Well, it's that time again ... will June turn out any better than May?

(1) Predict the mean temp (IMT) -- the 1961-90 average was 13.3

(2) Predict the highest temperature at any met.ie station

(3) Predict the lowest temperature at any met.ie station

(4) Predict the average rainfall at eleven stations in met.ie summary (%)

(5) Predict the total sunshine at six stations in met.ie summary (%)

(6) BONUS -- With many outdoor events and several requests for wedding forecasts (in my PM box) help me out here, how much sunshine will there be on Saturday, 11 June? Predict the max (hours, range 0.0 to 15.0, anything higher reduced to 15.0), and for 3 of the available points, which station of these seven will report it ... Knock, Malin, Belmullet, Shannon, Valentia, Casement, Dublin. First letter will do fine. Points for win, place and show.

Template you can use ... type your entries over the letters and maintain the space dots because if you do, MTC has even less work than otherwise.

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... SUN-11

________________________________________________________

Just this one time I will give you some fussy details about the template. You'll see the logic in this, I'm sure. Many people add things to the numbers and then I have to delete them. So don't put deg C or % signs in, they just come out again. Just the numbers, and please note, I don't mind at all if people add these things or don't use the template, this is just to speed things up slightly. Another thing you can do is to put a zero before any percentages below 100 (otherwise I do). And just a note, some people only predict whole numbers and not decimals for temperature. That's fine but I add point zero to such predictions, and you might want to think of a decimal especially for the IMT. Now, if you're wondering how to code the bonus this month, here's my forecast and you'll see the code I'm suggesting.

13.8 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 080 ..... 125 ..... 7.5 (V)

I may change all of that before the deadline which is end of Wed 1st of June.
Entries on Thurs 2nd are subject to slight penalty.
Entries on Friday 3rd are "late-late" which every regular contestant can claim once a year with bigger penalties. No special penalties for bonus this time.

I promise not to go on about the template, once will be enough I'm sure.

pauldry · 27-05-2011 11:01pm

dont give a sht im puttin in my prediction early to see how wrong I can be.:D

Lets get it flamin

14.7 ..... 28.1 ..... 4.3 ..... 078 ..... 132 ..... 8.8 (B)

Joe Public · 28-05-2011 10:36pm

14.3 ..... 27.9 ..... 3.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 13.9 (B)

It is possible to have more than 15 hours of sunshine on June 11th so why not have an upper limit of 16 hours?

Comment on below post - models can be very flighty!

M.T. Cranium · 29-05-2011 7:28am

If the day proves really clear and some stations exceed 15.0 hours, I wanted to declare them all tied for the win due to slight differences in exposure and latitude. Otherwise I think the contest will measure actual percentage of daylight with clear skies (sun shining through breaks at least).

So just to clarify, if the correct answer is 15.1 or higher, then all guesses of 15.0+ will be treated as equal, and all stations that record 15.0 or more will count full points as the right guess.

Models are not trending towards clear skies anyway, so this point may not matter in the scoring.