June 2011 Boards forecast contest

ch750536

13.2 .... 26.5 .... 2.8 ..... 090 ..... 90 ..... 7.3 (V)

dasa29

14.5 ..... 28.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... 9.0 (B)

4Sheets

14.0 ..... 27.0 ..... 5.5 ..... 078 ..... 115 ..... 12.0 (D)

John mac

12.8 ..... 26.3 ..... 3.8 ..... 081 ..... 113 ..... 10.1 (K)

waterways

13.7 ..... 24.1 ..... -0.5 ..... 99 ..... 111 ..... 3.7 (D)

0 (Malin) 3.8 (Cork)

Su Campu

13.0 ... 26.4 ... 1.8 ... 90% ... 105% ... 5.5 h (Valentia)

Sponge Bob

14.7 ..... 24.9 ..... 4.5 ..... 102 ..... 095 ..... 11.0 (O)

Danno

18.1 ..... 31.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 040 ..... 145 ..... 4.5 (D)

M.T. Cranium

June forecasts (on time, you can still enter with late penalty)

________________________

FORECASTER ......... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN .... Sunhr-11th
______________________________________________________________

Danno .................. 18.1 ..... 31.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 040 ..... 145 ..... 4.5 (D)
Strasser ............... 15.7 ..... 28.7 ..... 6.3 ..... 070 ..... 125 ..... 14.0 (C)
redsunset ............. 15.1 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 080 ..... 180 .... 11.5 (Ca)
pauldry ................. 14.7 ..... 28.1 ..... 4.3 ..... 078 ..... 132 ..... 8.8 (B)
Sponge Bob ........... 14.7 ..... 24.9 ..... 4.5 ..... 102 ..... 095 .... 11.0 (Ca)
snowstreams ......... 14.7 ..... 27.1 ..... 3.8 ..... 084 ..... 111 ..... 7.0 (S)
jambofc*............... 14.7 ..... 26.9 ..... 3.8 ..... 100 ..... 090 ..... 7.5 (S)
dacogawa ............. 14.6 ..... 26.1 ..... 3.1 ..... 110 ..... 133 ..... 8.2 (D)
jd ........................ 14.5 ..... 27.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 083 ..... 121 ..... 8.5 (D)
Rebelbrowser ......... 14.5 ..... 27.7 ..... 4.0 ..... 081 ..... 119 ..... 9.6 (V)
dasa29 ................. 14.5 ..... 28.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... 9.0 (B)
SeaFields .............. 14.5 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.4 ..... 079 ..... 125 ..... 6.0 (V)
Tae laidir .............. 14.5 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 071 ..... 133 ..... 8.8 (Ca)
H2UMrsRobinson ..... 14.4 ..... 25.6 ..... 8.1 ..... 095 ..... 099 .... 11.6 (D)
thetonynator ......... 14.4 ..... 24.0 ..... 3.8 ..... 080 ..... 105 ..... 7.0 (B)
MiNdGaM3 ............. 14.4 ..... 27.1 ..... 3.3 ..... 069 ..... 130 ..... 5.6 (S)
nacho libre ............ 14.3 ..... 25.8 ..... 4.1 ..... 090 ..... 120 ..... 7.1 (S)
kindredspirit .......... 14.3 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 3.5 (V)
Joe Public ............. 14.3 ..... 27.9 ..... 3.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 4.9 (B)
homolumo ............. 14.3 ..... 26.1 ..... 3.6 ..... 077 ..... 135 ..... 6.0 (S)

Con Sensus .......... 14.3 ..... 26.8 ..... 3.8 ..... 081 ..... 115 ..... 7.5 (D,S,V,B)

mickger844posts .... 14.3 ..... 26.3 ..... 4.4 ..... 072 ..... 121 ..... 6.5 (S)
The Inquisitor ........ 14.2 ..... 26.7 ..... 2.3 ..... 105 ..... 115 .... 11.0 (S)
200motels ............. 14.1 ..... 26.8 ..... 3.8 ..... 064 ..... 145 ..... 5.1 (B)
DOCARCH .............. 14.1 ..... 25.8 ..... 1.8 ..... 093 ..... 106 ..... 8.9 (S)
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 14.1 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 070 ..... 130 .... 12.0 (D)
4Sheets ................ 14.0 ..... 27.0 ..... 5.5 ..... 078 ..... 115 .... 12.0 (D)
fizzycyst ............... 14.0 ..... 26.2 ..... 4.2 ..... 075 ..... 130 .... 15.0 (V)
hellboy99 .............. 14.0 ..... 26.4 ..... 3.0 ..... 074 ..... 123 ..... 7.4 (D)
Harps ................... 14.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 085 ..... 110 ..... 7.5 (B)
rameire* ............... 13.9 ..... 27.2 ..... 3.1 ..... 087 ..... 115 ..... 6.9 (D)
M.T. Cranium ......... 13.8 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 080 ..... 125 ..... 7.5 (V)
waterways ............ 13.7 ..... 24.1 .... -0.5 ..... 099 ..... 111 ..... 3.7 (D)
Fionagus ............... 13.6 ..... 24.7 ..... 3.4 ..... 087 ..... 109 ..... 8.6 (B)
nilhg .................... 13.6 ..... 26.9 ..... 4.1 ..... 105 ..... 101 ..... 5.5 (Ca)
talkabout .............. 13.6 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.1 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 6.5 (V)
DeepEasterly* ....... 13.5 ..... 27.2 ..... 2.8 ..... 109 ..... 100 ..... 7.0 (Ca)
ch750536 .............. 13.2 ..... 26.5 ..... 2.8 ..... 090 ..... 090 ..... 7.3 (V)
Su Campu ............. 13.0 ..... 26.4 ..... 1.8 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 5.5 (V)
John mac .............. 12.8 ..... 26.3 ..... 3.8 ..... 081 ..... 113 .... 10.1 (K)

We now have all 39 of our ranked (annual) contestants and ch750536 (welcome) who entered last month as well ... you'll be in the annual table soon ... so I declare the contest closed for entries now. Those who chose "C" for sunshine have been asked by PM to clarify, my fault on that, we have Cork and Casement as options. Whoops. I may not be able to edit this table by the time I find out, so will post the five C entries clarified. Looking at the consensus values, as a group we have been swayed by the predictions of a warm summer and the rather cool look of the current model run has perhaps influenced the bottom third more. Still, late June could be very warm and either help or hurt various forecasts. Meanwhile, the consensus on rain and sun is clearly slanted towards a sunny and rather dry month. For the 11th, the general thinking seems to be partly cloudy and Dublin or west coast stations were favoured (the consensus locations reflect the frequency of choices and Dublin will be used to give Con Sensus points).

jambofc

14.7 ..... 26.9 ..... 3.8 ..... 100 ..... 90 ..... 7.5(s)

Deep Easterly

13.5 ..... 27.2 ..... 2.8 ..... 109 ..... 100 ..... 7.0 (C)

rameire

13.9 ..... 27.2 ..... 3.1 ..... 087 ..... 115 ..... 6.9 (D)

sorry for the delay Kung Fu Panda 2 got in the way.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for your entries, with these three late submissions, I have checked and found that all 39 regular entrants (ranked in the annual scoring thread) and ch750536 who joined in May, have signed in ... so I have edited the table a few posts back to add the late entries and to determine Con Sensus.

Since we have the full field the contest entries are now closed.

If you chose "C" for sunshine, and there were five who did, please check your inbox, I made a mistake and there were two choices possible for C. If I can't edit the table by the time you answer, I will list what C you wanted (Cork or Casement). Thanks.

John mac

Maybe they were being cute and hedging their bets :D

M.T. Cranium

So far I have heard back from four of them and they all meant Casement. My fault anyway. The edit option remains open so I have been editing the table with their predictions.

We may get our max for the month tomorrow, but almost for certain we will be waiting a long time to update the value we have after tomorrow.

Sponge Bob

Oak Park shows 25.5c for 03 June

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

thetonynator

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Oak Park shows 25.5c for 03 June

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

I looked at the page, saw 24.2 for mullingar and thought that was the max and it would stay there for the month . . .:mad:

MiNdGaM3

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Oak Park shows 25.5c for 03 June

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

With a minimum of 6.5C, that gives it a diurnal range of 19C which is impressive in itself.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT after three days stood at 15.6 C. Today won't change that very much but within a week to ten days, it may be around 12.5 to 13, so much will depend on the second half of the month.

No longer able to edit the table, but Strasser has also confirmed Casement as the guess for sunshine on the 11th, so that completes the process. Nobody wanted Cork or Malin Head, which probably means they will win, right?

M.T. Cranium

3.0 for the min at Mullingar (6th).

Tae laidir

Surprised to see no-one went for Malin, as total length of day on 11th is 17hr 22min
http://uk.weather.com/weather/dailyDetails-Malin-Head-EIXX0091?dayNum=4
whereas Cork is only 16hr 38min
http://uk.weather.com/weather/dailyDetails-Cork-EIXX0011?dayNum=4

John mac

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

3.0 for the min at Mullingar (6th).

should have stuck with my original guess:(

pauldry

Yeah and it could be down to 2 or 1c by the end of the week. Can we start again?

June looks freezing although it does look a bit warmer midmonth though none of the 25.5c stuff

M.T. Cranium

After the first seven days, the stats are as follows:

IMT at 13.0 C

rainfall (for stations used at end of month) 63% of normal

sunshine 110% of normal

Today only helping one of these to rise.

The IMT could be well down into the low 12 range before recovering, the question being how much. Rainfall deficit may be erased by Monday.

Su Campu

New lowest min of 2.3C at Mullingar overnight.

Su Campu

0.5C at Mullingar this morning, with a grass temperature of -3C.

M.T. Cranium

So here we go again with the mercy rule, this time for June minimum temperature. Waterways has 18 points out of 20 for certain with a guess of -0.5, and various guesses of 1.8 C will share 16 points. Waterways could improve on that 18 if the eventual statistic closes in on -0.5, otherwise the scores could be tabulated today by looking at rank order and ties. The rainfall guesses may take a big hit next week starting on Sunday, we shall find out our fate soon enough. Some of the IMT guesses are now a very big ask.

M.T. Cranium

Here's a partial report on the bonus question, which asked for the maximum sunshine hours and location for Saturday (11th).

It seems that good old MTC threw a slight wrench into the weather machine by listing the stations to include Malin Head which does not report sunshine, and omitting Cork which does. This explains in part why nobody chose Cork in the first place.

In any case, the reports on the met.ie website this morning are not complete but it appears that Belmullet will be the winning location with 15.0 hours. Despite the conversation earlier about 15 hours, only one contestant went that high (fizzycyst) while Strasser will share top points (seven) with a guess of 14.0 hours. I have to wait for all the reports before deciding how to score the locations. But I will ignore Cork (which I am told is the national shortcoming and/or characteristic) and award three points for Belmullet as a choice, and also three points for Knock if they report 15.0 or higher (see the rules), from the satellite loop I suspect they may but could end up as second while Valentia is looking like third at this point. Casement was well behind all the western stations and while Dublin did not report yet, I imagine it won't be a lot different from Casement.

As to the points for hours, I plan to divide the points so that anyone at or above 7.0 gets one or more, with roughly equal gradations from 7 to 14.

Will update the situation when Knock and Dublin have added their daily figures later in the week (I hope). (added later) Seems that Shannon will get the third place point, as Knock finished lower. As explained above, Cork is not included in the scoring at all because of my error in the bonus question. Thanks to SC and also to DE for his posts on the IMT and IMR (after this post).

Su Campu

These are the sunshine hours for yesterday, as reported in the 06 UTC synops.

Belmullet 15.0
Cork A'pt 12.7
Valentia 11.2
Shannon 10.9
Casement 8.4
Knock 7.7
Dublin A'pt 5.8

Deep Easterly

on 11.6c so far, this is 1.1c below the 61-90 normal for the first 11 days of the month.
Mean maxima: 16.3c (-0.9c) / mean minima: 6.9c (-1.3c)


IMR (Irish Mean Rainfall using the same 5 stations used in IMT) % of 61-90 normal for June so far is on a surprising 71%, so drier than normal so far despite the abysmal weather we have had the last week or so.

Below is a chart showing the IMR % of normal for the year so far, with figures for 2010 & 2009 included for comparison:



Annual IMR % of 61-90 normal up to the 11th June on 93.9%, so this year is proving to be slightly drier than normal over central Ireland generally but individual station values are not even. Casement's value of 74% is in stark contrast to the 117% at Claremorris. Shannon's rainfall total also above normal for the year but Oak Park and Mullingar are hovering around 85%.

In sum, this year is has been a moderately wet one for the west so far, but much drier than normal in the east.



All data C/O Met Eireann