June 2011 Boards forecast contest

Redsunset

Dublin




Yeah not looking good,im still waiting for my summer,perhaps July holds the trump card

M.T. Cranium

After 13 days the IMT had drifted down further to 11.4 C ... I think this may be about the low point for the month although there are no signs of real warmth, just the seasonal increase should nurse along a gradual rise towards 12.

But what this means is that, essentially, temperatures have been stalled for almost three months because we were seeing daily values similar to this June average in late March and certainly above this in early April.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE to end of second week (14 days)

IMT stands at 11.4 after a chilly week (9.8)

rainfall (for stations used at end of month) stands at 95% after a somewhat wet total of 127%, but the first week had been dry at 63% of normal

sunshine now at 117% after a week that hit 124%. (first week had been 110% of normal).

thetonynator

IMT creeping up again to 11.56 so far. . .

M.T. Cranium

Update for the third week (through 21 days) ...


IMT now stands at 11.8 after a rather cool week that was close to 12.0.

rainfall (for stations used at end of month) stands at 140% after a very wet seven days (230%) for most stations except for some parts of Connacht.

sunshine now at 111% after a week that managed 98% despite all the rain.

Looking at trends from today to 30th, would suggest finishing values near

IMT 12.5

rainfall 130%

sunshine 115%

Any events on the weekend of 9-10 July that we can use for our next bonus question?

Sponge Bob

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Any events on the weekend of 9-10 July that we can use for our next bonus question?

Predicting a loyalist riot to temperature ratio in Counties Antrim and Down on the 9th.

EG

20c = 20 riots between 00 and 24 hours 09 July
21c = 25
22c = 30 etc

kindredspirit

How many dollops of rain will fall on the King Scallop festival in Valentia on the 9th and 10th of July?

(OK. How many millimetres of rain will be recorded at Valentia over these two days.)

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Valentia-Island-King-Scallop-Festival-9-10-July-2011/206402346066713

M.T. Cranium

Given that choice, I think I'll take the scallops.

pauldry

How much snow will fall in Ireland?!

rameire

How many Birthdays will be listed on the boards front page on the day given.
or
Who will be picked on the 9th of July to run for Presidenté from the Fine Gael party.
or
How much rain will fall at the British Grand Prix qualifying on the 9th or at the race on the 10th.

homolumo

Munster Hurling Final is on July 10th in Pairc Ui Chaoimh Cork (I think)

M.T. Cranium

IMT has fought its way up to 12.2 after a weekend that ran the total number of warm days so far to about five.

M.T. Cranium

Fourth week update should give us a very clear idea of our fate:

After a relatively warm week at 13.4 C, the IMT has settled in at 12.1 C after peaking at 12.2 on Monday. I don't expect any further changes there.

While Friday 24th was a wet day, the seven day period as a whole averaged about 120% of normal and brought the monthly average down somewhat to 135% of normal. As I'm always estimating these based on a different set of stations, that could change within perhaps 10 per cent.

Sunshine, meanwhile, continues to average slightly above normal despite the rain and cool monthly temperatures. At least you have that, because here, where it has been cool also, we have seen almost no sunshine all month. Very depressing. But that's not your problem, the average for the week was a reasonable 103% and the month thus sagged slightly to 109%. These last two days seem likely to set the finish near 110%.

There could be extensive use of the "mercy rule" this month if memory serves me well, so look for some final scoring on Friday. And just a reminder, the July thread is open, let your optimism run rampant.

M.T. Cranium

If it looks like I am late getting into the scoring, bear with me ... internet connection problems at home (Thursday evening) ... Friday is a holiday here and I may not find anywhere else to connect, the place I am using now will be closed ... and no idea how long I may be off-line. It may be Saturday or even Sunday before I can get on line, don't know.

pauldry

No worries MT I predicted a heatwave for June so enough said!:p

Deep Easterly

Final IMT for June a disappointing 12.2c.

M.T. Cranium

Hello, just got my connection back, apparently a cable was broken during construction somewhere around here ... now my problem is that the monthly summary for June, while in the menu at the met.ie website, returns an error message so I can't check the info. If anyone knows how to access this monthly summary, please let me know. Meanwhile I will keep trying the link.

pauldry

I am getting error 404 message too. Id say they are just working on it or on the beach somewhere if everywhere is as warm as Sligo is today.:)

M.T. Cranium

Well, to get the scoring done, I have worked out the rainfall myself using the eleven stations that will show up in the met summary. The average was 135% for them. For sunshine, I checked the daily stats on 29th and 30th and compared to our running average of 109% which I think is reliable, and will go with 110% there (the two days were similar to trend). Otherwise, we have all the data we need from the thread. The final figures to be used will be:

IMT 12.2

MAX 25.5 (Oak Park 3rd)

MIN 0.5 (Mullingar 9th and possibly Shannon later, any lower values here would not affect scoring which is already on the mercy rule)

PRC 135%

SUN 110%

BONUS 15.0 hours, order of finish Belmullet, Valentia, Shannon (see comments back around 9th-10th for more details)

Therefore, look for an updated scoring table for June and the year, over in the annual scoring thread.