The Oaks & the Derby 2011

Fryern

I cannot see a thread on this so here goes:-
The Oaks
She is only little but she is unbeaten in 3 starts. She won the Lingfield Oaks trial with hands and heels, slowing down by an official 6 lengths (more like 8). Her time was 2.29.66 which compares with Middays time of 2.30.49 on similar going. The Derby trial on the same day was won in 2.29.50.
So we know she will act on the track, will get the distance and should improve.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7kvwbUJkHs
Zain Al Boldan is generally 10-1 and a little better on Betfair.

The Derby
Horses that do well in the 2000 Guineas usually run well in the Derby. People will say a grey has not won the Derby since 1946. I would say how many greys have run in it? The Queens horse is far too short a price. Native Khan looks the value and the price will shorten if Fallon confirms he will ride.
Native Khan is also generally 10-1.
My bets:
I’ve Zain @ 14-1 and Native Khan @ 16-1.
I would suggest 7.5 units win and 2.5 units place on both @ 10-1. For the double 9 units win and 1 unit place. You place the bet as 1 unit ew and 8 units win.

kfallon

It's "Fallon Time" at Epsom this week, Wonder Of Wonders for the Oaks and Recital for the Derby, 2 singles and a double, thank you very much

UrbanSea

I'm reserving myself until the final declarations. Chrysanthemum for the oaks I think.

UrbanSea

Edit:She doesn't go.

Fryern

Johnny Murtagh will ride Native Khan in the Investec Derby at Epsom on Saturday.

Already three times a winner of the premier Classic, the Irish rider is a cracking deal for Ed Dunlop. I was unaware he might be available and a better choice than Mr Fallon who I don't see riding again for Ed.

This should be the start of a beautiful friendship.:D

UrbanSea

Frankly I don't blame Fallon. Can see him picking up some nice rides for Coolmore,much better ones than he would get from Dunlop.

Fryern

He took two rides instead of one. All about money. No problem providing they dope test him before and after the race!

The clean line:-
" Ed has booked three-time Blue Riband hero Johnny Murtagh to ride Native Khan in the Investec Derby at Epsom on Saturday, following the revelation that Kieren Fallon had jumped ship and accepted the mount on Aidan O'Brien's Derrinstown Stud Trial winner Recital.
"We are delighted to have Johnny on our side," declared Ed on Monday night. "He has already won the race on Sinndar, High Chaparral and Motivator, and he is a world-class jockey with a fantastic record around Epsom. He finished third on Ouija Board in the 2004 Arc, so we know him well, and I am sure that he will do a great job for us.''
"Obviously, it was disappointing hearing that Kieren (Fallon) had changed his mind, and I felt particularly sorry for the owners, who wanted him to ride and thought that they had their man. But it's no big deal - Native Khan has run five times, and Kieren was only aboard twice.''
"We then went for Olivier Peslier, who rode Native Khan in the 2000 Guineas, but he has to ride for the Wertheimer brothers at Longchamp on Saturday, so had to decline. However, getting Johnny is a real coup, and we are very happy about it."

Fryern

Carlton House has suffered a setback in his preparation.
He was taken for x-rays on Tuesday morning after filling in his near-fore joint.

Quote from racing manager:-

"I would say at this point, from what I understand the injury to be, he has a pretty good chance of being there. The next few days will obviously reveal a little more but the trainer is optimistic and hopeful that the horse is still on target."

Epsom will take a big toll on the horses joints. I say silly to run him.

You can now bet with or without Carlton House.

Fryern

It's not looking good for Carlton House. Can you imagine if he broke down on the course?

I cannot see our Queen letting him run if there is even the slightest doubt about his fitness.

Has to be a magnificant lay. Even if he starts he won't be 2-1.

Vurnon San Benito

I'm considering a nice lay on Carlton House and maybe back in-play if it doesn't get going.
Thoughts lads?

Fryern

You should have done it at 2-1
I dropped enough hints....

Best lay now 5.8 on betfair but only a few £

The odds say it won't run. As I said because of all the doubts the SP will be it much higher if it runs - it WAS a magnificent lay @ 2-1.

Fryern

Zain Al Boldan

I have been watching the videos of this filly and am very interested in the speed she obtains from a low front leg action. I mean she skips over the surface with a low front leg lift.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7kvwbUJkHs

here watch the front right leg and she is going up hill http://www.mickchannon.tv/page/features (click play)

This stride pattern is remarkably similar to that of Dancing Brave. We shall see how good it is tomorrow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCucJx2vL-k

She looks remarkable value @ circa 10-1.


I'm going to watch Glodikova now.
Just did and the front legs are very similar - very low lift a skip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDquLWxKc0Q


Guy (Harwood) always said that the secret to Dancing Brave was his stride. It was exceptionally long which enable him to take in more oxygen - horses breath between strides. Lives just down the road.

Denners.ie

Fryern wrote: »

Epsom will take a big toll on the horses joints. I say silly to run him.

Fryern wrote: »

You should have done it at 2-1
I dropped enough hints....

Best lay now 5.8 on betfair but only a few £

The odds say it won't run. As I said because of all the doubts the SP will be it much higher if it runs - it WAS a magnificent lay @ 2-1.

I don't like Carlton House but I think Stoute is up to his tricks again. If the horse was injured on Tuesday he wouldn't be cantering on Thursday, no way.

A horse needs sound legs going to Epsom, if CH was injured as suggested he wouldn't be running Saturday, especially not cantering today. Stoute and his buddies were probably having a play at the market imo.

Fryern

I don't think a firm decision has been made. They had to declare him otherwise he would be out.

Did he gallop?

They say a firm decision by tomorrow but they can pull him anytime before the race.

Fryern

Tory boy paper likes Zain

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/8553221/Mick-Channon-has-fine-chance-with-Zain-Al-Boldan-in-Investec-Oaks-at-Epsom.html

Can anyone confirm the winning time of the Oaks trial please?

Denners.ie

Fryern wrote: »

I don't think a firm decision has been made. They had to declare him otherwise he would be out.

Did he gallop?

They say a firm decision by tomorrow but they can pull him anytime before the race.

He did 4f today at half-pace. I'm not sure what they are going to learn tomorrow that they couldn't today.

If he runs, which I suspect he will, there is a good chance that Stoute is influencing the market, he did the same with Workforce two weeks ago.

sonnky

Sirens Song for me lads!

Fryern

Fallon in a spot of bother:-

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/exclusive-owner-launches-legal-bid-to-stop-fallon-riding-in-derby-2292329.html

As long as they dope test him before I think is key. We do it to all our atheletes these day.

UrbanSea

Fallon is allowed ride,but an appeal is likely.

Fryern

Brilliant ride by Murtagh stole the show.

Interesting to see his tactics tomorrow but it looks like you have to be up with the pace.

Denners.ie

Fryern wrote: »

Interesting to see his tactics tomorrow but it looks like you have to be up with the pace.

From the five races I saw it doesn't look like that at all. Antara, Dance and dance and Resurge all came from the middle or back of the field, and you can't judge St. Nic as it was a 5 horse race. I didn't see the last two races so not sure how they went. A cool head is what is needed, surprised that Quelley panicked slightly, the horse has bags of speed over 10f it was a massive judgement error by him today.

Fryern

Hi Denners.ie

It was a Group 1 not a nags race. Only one to compare it with was the other Group 1 imo. All to do with the going.

Fryern

Fallon,

Best solution is a very hefty fine plus the £30k penalty - let him ride. Make sure he makes no money out of it and drug test him.

Fryern

In hindsight this is the correct decision.

He'd have been given any fine by the 'new' owners.



Mr Araci was said to be "thrilled" by the decision to grant an injunction.
His lawyer, Mehmet Erdogan, said: "He's thrilled. He always trusted the British legal system, that's why as a foreigner he invested in this country.
"He believed that justice would never go wrong in the UK."
Mr Erdogan said that Fallon had "deliberately and cynically"' breached a contract.
"Five days before the race, surprisingly and shockingly, he informed our client that he would not be running our client's horse, but riding a competitor's horse.
"That was breach of contract," he said.
He added that it was "unlikely" the jockey would ride a horse owned by Mr Araci in the future.

orourkeda

Seriously considering laying the favourite for the derby on betfair. I don't know why but I just a have a feeling

Denners.ie

orourkeda wrote: »

Seriously considering laying the favourite for the derby on betfair. I don't know why but I just a have a feeling

I wouldn't fancy himself, his win at the Dante was due to the dawdle of a pace and he preferred the sprint to Seville. His pedigree doesn't suggest he will want the extra 2f either. I don't lay but I couldn't have him at the prices with the question marks surrounding his form.

C'mon Seville!

orourkeda

Denners.ie wrote: »

I wouldn't fancy himself, his win at the Dante was due to the dawdle of a pace and he preferred the sprint to Seville. His pedigree doesn't suggest he will want the extra 2f either. I don't lay but I couldn't have him at the prices with the question marks surrounding his form.

C'mon Seville!

Laid at 3.4 on betfair. Probably means it'll win by about 200 miles.

orourkeda

Completely ignored the french winner.

UrbanSea

I fancied Treasure Beach. How close

Denners.ie

Fryern wrote: »

Hi Denners.ie

It was a Group 1 not a nags race. Only one to compare it with was the other Group 1 imo. All to do with the going.

Evidently you didn't need to be up with the pace at all.

Nice horse that, he is a little rocket.

UrbanSea

That pace you could see him winning over a mile. Exciting prospect.

Fryern

Evidently you didn't need to be up with the pace at all.

Tell that to Ryan Moore. We nearly had a 25-1 winner who was up with the pace. I don't think Carlton House would have been caught if he was up with the pace - just missed the break.

Glad Murtagh finished ahead or Recital.

Denners.ie

Fryern wrote: »

Evidently you didn't need to be up with the pace at all.

Tell that to Ryan Moore. We nearly had a 25-1 winner who was up with the pace. I don't think Carlton House would have been caught if he was up with the pace - just missed the break.

Rubbish, I'm hearing different excuses for Carlton House not winning by the hour. For what it is worth I don't think Moore would have been unhappy at where he was positioned, he could have pushed CH up the field if he wanted to be closer up. 2 of the 3 home came from back down the field, like the majority of races over the 2 days. The theory that you needed to be up with the pace is unfounded looking at all the results.

Pour Moi had 15 lengths to make up coming onto the straight. He was 4 behind Carlton House coming out of Tattenham. The best horse won yesterday without a doubt.

UrbanSea

As Higgins said over in the racing forum Moore needs to strengthen up.
He looked like a blubbering baby boy after the race yesterday.

Alliteration makes it sound funny.