€25k invested in prize bonds

Sligo Quay

Lurker1 wrote: »

Read through that article and it has me curious. At this moment in time, how many prize bonds would you need to hold to make the odds of winning the top prize equivalent to the 1 in 8 million chance you have of winning the lotto. To answer this, we would need to know the following:

Are the odds given in the article per draw or per year or what? Assuming it's per draw and 1 bond or lotto ticket is one chance:
The Lotto(only including the main national lottery draw) has a draw twice a week. So you have 2 chances at 1/8,000,000 odds to win every week.

The Prize Bonds draw is every three months (assuming 13 weeks, or 26 half-weeks for this example). Therefore, every week we have 1/13th of a 1/300,000,000 chance every week of winning the top prize.

Weekly odds of winning the top Prize:
Lotto= 2/8,000,000, PB= 1/3,900,000,000

Lotto= 0.25, PB=0.00025641025

Lotto/PB = 975.


So I am assuming I have missed some fundamental maths problem with the above . I have calculated 975 bonds as the magic number if you were to give up the lotto and to save you money in Prize bonds instead, with the same chance of winning the top prize. I am not factoring in the smaller prizes, sharing the lotto, and the fact that the odds of the PB draw changes based on the number of bonds, whereas the lotto odds changes based on the number of balls etc.

All very fine reading and great mathematical science but at the end of the day it's down to pure random luck, last week's millionaire winner, a bond purchased in Galway in 2015, was it part of a batch or just a lone bond, I don't know and it doesn't matter, but it had random luck on it's side and won a million euro, I have prize bonds from the 1980s and have won nothing, seems unfair lol but it's random luck.
I live in hope, I dream big, there is always next Friday.

Taylor365

2,828,658,824 Euro worth of bonds.

Who owns all these bonds?

We account for, lets say being generous, €1,000,000?

Obviously there are some big stakers from before Nov 2015?

Sligo Quay

Taylor365 wrote: »

2,828,658,824 Euro worth of bonds.

Who owns all these bonds?

We account for, lets say being generous, €1,000,000?

Obviously there are some big stakers from before Nov 2015?

All the family here, then everybody in every country in Ireland and overseas, years ago Irish Life and Lyons Tea had big stakes, look at the stake in this thread and what's won, a few €50euros everyweek, but it only takes 1 single bond to win a million, all down to a single piece of good luck.

Taylor365

Sligo Quay wrote: »

All the family here, then everybody in every country in Ireland and overseas, years ago Irish Life and Lyons Tea had big stakes, look at the stake in this thread and what's won, a few €50euros everyweek, but it only takes 1 single bond to win a million, all down to a single piece of good luck.

I believe more in statistics than luck.

We haven't a hope.

Agent Smyth

If my figures are correct it would appear the PB fund is now about 2,894,423,529 Euro as of the end of December 16,
Which means at the moment there are about 463,107,764 bonds.

During November I reckon the PB fund grew by 65,764,705 Euro,
Which means there will be an extra 10,522,352 bonds in each draw during January compared to December.

I would estimate that on average there was a net growth in the PB fund of 3,868,512 Euro for each working day during December.

June's daily growth €1,786,487 old rate 1.25%
July's daily growth €1,500,280 new rate .85%
August's daily growth €1,529,411 @ .85%
September's daily growth €1,251,336 @ .85%
October's daily growth €145,658 @ .85%
November's daily growth €2,101,279 @ .85%
December's daily growth €3,868,512 @ .85%

For the year I estimate the net growth from 1st Jan to 31st Dec to be around €451,607,529
giving a daily working day net growth of €1,828,370.

Agent Smyth

My return for the year 2016 was .88237%, which in my view is still better then most if not all bank accounts
I purchased another 2 batches in Feb and April, which so far have returned .53% & .45%

AlmightyCushion

Agent Smyth wrote: »

My return for the year 2016 was .88237%, which in my view is still better then most if not all bank accounts
I purchased another 2 batches in Feb and April, which so far have returned .53% & .45%

You'd need to be getting 1.5% or above in a savings account to beat that when you take into account DIRT. I don't think there are any accounts that offer that on the Irish market apart from a few regular savers. So, you done pretty well.

Miningpete

You are one of the lucky ones, I have had 10 k worth of bonds for 15 years and won 300€ in all that time.
There is something very suspicious about Irish bonds, in al that time twice I have phoned concerning the lack of prizes I have received, and both times within a few days I have received a winning cheque for 75€, I think this is more than a coincidence thar they can send out cheques at will, it makes me wonder what is going on.
Over the last 15 years I have made it my buisiness to ask family and freinds with bonds if they ever won a substantial prize, not one person I know has won more than 75€.
Also my postman of over 20 years does not know of one big prize winner.
One day maybe all this will come out in the open.

Cute Hoor

Miningpete wrote: »

You are one of the lucky ones, I have had 10 k worth of bonds for 15 years and won 300€ in all that time.
There is something very suspicious about Irish bonds, in al that time twice I have phoned concerning the lack of prizes I have received, and both times within a few days I have received a winning cheque for 75€, I think this is more than a coincidence thar they can send out cheques at will, it makes me wonder what is going on.
Over the last 15 years I have made it my buisiness to ask family and freinds with bonds if they ever won a substantial prize, not one person I know has won more than 75€.
Also my postman of over 20 years does not know of one big prize winner.
One day maybe all this will come out in the open.

I know somebody who has won €20,000. I hope to be on here later on today confirming that I have won more than €75:D

BTW how would your postman know who has won what in the prize bonds.

LoveBrowsing

I've been following this thread out of interest more than anything else, unfortunately I've no big investment but I do have odd prize bonds from gifts over the years. I won €1,000 about 2 years ago, I honestly don't know how many bonds I have but not many, so I was delighted. I'm not sure on the bigger prizes but the €1,000 prize definitely exists

I'm still waiting for the €1m though but to be honest I'd be delighted with another €50

tuisginideach

Didn't take long for the 2017 posting to take on my usual moan :(:(

Cute Hoor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

I hope to be on here later on today confirming that I have won more than €75:D

DAMN :(:(:(:(

pbwinner

S/he might have an idea that someone at a house won, because the envelopes have the Prize Bonds company return address on them, Killorglin Co. Kerry, although not the words "prize bonds". But no way of knowing who actually won, unless there's only one person at the address of course.

tuisginideach

pbwinner wrote: »

S/he might have an idea that someone at a house won, because the envelopes have the Prize Bonds company return address on them, Killorglin Co. Kerry, although not the words "prize bonds". But no way of knowing who actually won, unless there's only one person at the address of course.

Nor how much they won...

pbwinner

Winnings on 13th January 2017: 0
Last win 23rd December 2016: 50
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on 25k: 2300

worded

The irish PB are I using letter and numbers
The winners are drawn by a computer randomly that knows what numbers are
In existance ....

U.K. - It's seems like a more logical way to just use numbers ...
From 1 to what ever

But what happens when bonds are sold, there are gaps in the
Sequence. So it must be a database of numbers that the computer draws numbers from

Wouldn't mind servicing that computer !

The uk system is also one bond per 1 sterling
Better idea IMHO

Agent Smyth

worded wrote: »

The irish PB are I using letter and numbers
The winners are drawn by a computer randomly that knows what numbers are
In existance ....

U.K. - It's seems like a more logical way to just use numbers ...
From 1 to what ever

But what happens when bonds are sold, there are gaps in the
Sequence. So it must be a database of numbers that the computer draws numbers from

Wouldn't mind servicing that computer !

The uk system is also one bond per 1 sterling
Better idea IMHO

Just to clear up a misconception
The computers dont pick a number or bond
They generate a number which will match a bond
It makes no difference using letters and numbers
and afaik the same type of computer is used for both English and Irish draws

Negative_G

Winnings on 13th January 2017: €50
Last win 25th November 2016: €50
Total winnings since Feb 2015 on €50k: €800
Total winnings since Oct 2016 on €20k: €0

dxhound2005

Today's draw has an example of someone getting a bit more than the average luck. Three winners, total €150 on a holding which could be as little as €16,625. Although UN890576 also won in Louth, so it might be a much bigger holding.

I notice what are probably very large holdings winning a few prizes each week in various counties, but hardly ever as lucky as this one today.

Of course it could be separate owners, but this pattern would still be equally as unlikely.

https://www.statesavings.ie/PrizebondsApp/DrawResults.aspx

Prize Value Winning Bond County

50 UN876300 LOUTH
50 UN876528 LOUTH
50 UN878960 LOUTH

Sligo Quay

Negative_G wrote: »

Winnings on 13th January 2017: €50
Last win 25th November 2016: €50
Total winnings since Feb 2015 on €50k: €800
Total winnings since Oct 2016 on €20k: €0

Always interesting comparing like with like.
Nothing for me today,
Last win 30th Dec 2016 €50.
Total winnings since July 2015 on 20k: €350
Total winnings since June 2016 on 30k: €100.

100 prize bonds purchased between 1985 and 1990, won €75 in 2012, won €75 in 2013.
I only started purchase the big batch in 2015 as saving interest rates were on the floor.

Thargor

€50 again this week same as last Friday, coming up on a massive 0.88% return at this rate.

tuisginideach

tuisginideach wrote: »

Didn't take long for the 2017 posting to take on my usual moan :(:(

:(:(:(

pbwinner

Winnings on 20th January 2017: 0
Last win 23rd December 2016: 50
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on 25k: 2300

Sligo Quay

Nothing this week for me.
Last win 30th Dec 2016 €50.

pbwinner

Winnings on 27th January 2017: 0
Last win 23rd December 2016: 50
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on 25k: 2300

tuisginideach

In Jan 2016, I won €150.
In Jan 2017, on a greater number of bonds, I have won €50.
Not looking good!
:(:(:(:(

Sligo Quay

I may as well copy & paste my post from last week, saves me doing a lot of typing, so here goes ''Nothing this week for me.
Last win 30th Dec 2016 €50''

I notice not many posting these days, maybe post when ye win, that accounts why there's few posts.

Negative_G

Sligo Quay wrote: »

I may as well copy & paste my post from last week, saves me doing a lot of typing, so here goes ''Nothing this week for me.
Last win 30th Dec 2016 €50''

I notice not many posting these days, maybe post when ye win, that accounts why there's few posts.

That's what I do anyway.

Ill have my initial batch of bonds 2 years next week so will do a quick review of performance over that period.

Taylor365

Nothing since November on 20k.

I'll post again in another 2 months of nothingness.

FoolsGold1

Nothing since the €50 on 16th December, 2016 on upwards of €70K.