€25k invested in prize bonds

yabadabado

Winnings on 27th January 2017: €50

Not sure when I last won or total now,too lazy to look back!

pbwinner

Winnings on 03rd February 2017: 0
Last win 23rd December 2016: 50
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on 25k: 2300

pbwinner

Sligo Quay wrote: »

maybe post when ye win, that accounts why there's few posts.

Wish I'd thought of that! Would prevent this soul-destroying "Winnings on <date> = 0" posts :-P
As if reading "Sorry, you have no new winners" every week wasn't bad enough :-)

tuisginideach

2 X €50 today :)

Cork Lass

tuisginideach wrote: »

2 X €50 today :)

Well done. Nothing for us again this week. Last win was 2 x50 on 30th December

piston

Nowt since September

abff

I'm looking at prize bonds as an alternative to putting money on deposit. Based on the pay out in January as shown on the state savings website, there's around €2.9 billion currently invested in prize bonds. Stripping out the larger prizes gives a net yield of just over 0.6%, which is a lot better than the deposit rates currently available in the market, particularly when you allow for the fact that prize bond winnings are free of all taxes and levies.

So it seems to me to almost be a no brainer if you have money you want to hold in cash, but may need to access at some point over the next few years. There's an initial 3 month waiting period before you can encash them, but after that you can cash them in on demand.

I know the amount you will get is subject to random variation, but large holdings make it statistically very unlikely that you won't win anything over a 12 month period. By my reckoning, you could expect on average to win 3 €50 prizes a year with a €25k holding.

Allowing for normal distribution, there would only be a 5% chance of winning nothing, 15% probability of winning €50, 45% chance of winning 2 or 3 times (split more or less equally) and 35% chance of winning 4 or more times. And there's also the possibility (albeit fairly remote) of winning one of the larger prizes.

Even one €50 win would equal 0.2%, which is equal to the gross rate currently being paid by RaboDirect on amounts above €50k.

If you have €50k to invest, the likelihood of not winning anything in a year falls to around 0.24%, while €100k gives a 99.26% chance of winning at least €250.

I know it's possible to be extremely unlucky, but the downside is limited to the loss of the relatively small amount of interest you would have earned based on today's miserable deposit rates.

Am I missing something?

tuisginideach

We (extended family ) have quite a large holding .... 2016 just over 1 per cent return; 2015 .73per cent return. Very disappointing..

abff

The figure for 2016 sounds about right, but I agree the 2015 return is a bit disappointing, but I'm not sure it's statistically significant. Were they offering a total 1.25% return in 2015? And didn't they reduce the number of €1 million prizes from 6 to 4, so a greater proportion would have gone on the larger prizes back then?

I guess I'd be interested to hear how exactly the random numbers are generated in order to make sure they really ARE random.

dxhound2005

abff wrote: »

The figure for 2016 sounds about right, but I agree the 2015 return is a bit disappointing, but I'm not sure it's statistically significant. Were they offering a total 1.25% return in 2015? And didn't they reduce the number of €1 million prizes from 6 to 4, so a greater proportion would have gone on the larger prizes back then?

I guess I'd be interested to hear how exactly the random numbers are generated in order to make sure they really ARE random.

And I'd be interested in what expertise you have to judge the efficacy of such a computerised random number generator. What do you make of FAQ's 8 and 18 here?

https://www.statesavings.ie/Downloads/PrizeBondsFAQs.pdf

One aspect of the draw which would point to it being random is the fact that Bond holders in Dublin and Cork combined get over half of the prizes in every weekly draw.

abff

I has read the FAQs, including questions 8 and 18, but it doesn't really tell me anything. I've no reason to believe there is anything skewed about the way the numbers are generated, but it is a bit of a black box.

worded

UK Premium bonds - Stats
https://www.nsandi.com/premium-bonds

How do they compare with Irelands?

arkrow

Premium Bond prize cuts: from May 2017 these are your odds of winning

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/savings/premium-bond-prize-cuts-may-2017-odds-winning/

worded

arkrow wrote: »

Premium Bond prize cuts: from May 2017 these are your odds of winning

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/savings/premium-bond-prize-cuts-may-2017-odds-winning/

They are mental odds !

Thanks for the post

The winnings are tax free in the UK. But if you are an Irish resident winner does that tax free win apply here? or is it UK only residents?

I dont need to worry about this .... yet :-)

Feelin lucky ...

Jellybaby1

We have bonds for 40 years and never won anything. A few times we checked the numbers online to see if we'd won but zilch. I am just wondering if there is any way of finding out if our numbers are still 'in the drum' as it were. When the system was computerised how would I know if mistakes were made in the changeover? Sorry if this came up before, was directed here from another forum and haven't read the whole thread.

worded

Jellybaby1 wrote: »

We have bonds for 40 years and never won anything. A few times we checked the numbers online to see if we'd won but zilch. I am just wondering if there is any way of finding out if our numbers are still 'in the drum' as it were. When the system was computerised how would I know if mistakes were made in the changeover? Sorry if this came up before, was directed here from another forum and haven't read the whole thread.

You can get new numbers on request I think.

Also consider threatening them with cashing in unless you get at least a token win in the next 30 days? Its possible they are stuck to the drum - LOL :-)

Jellybaby1

worded wrote: »

You can get new numbers on request I think.

Also consider threatening them with cashing in unless you get at least a token win in the next 30 days? Its possible they are stuck to the drum - LOL :-)

Thanks for replying so quickly. Didn't know I could request new numbers. Regarding cashing in, I don't have enough to make them restless at night !! 'Stuck to the drum'? now its me that can't sleep tonight!

tuisginideach

You can return the old ones and get new ones issued in lieu.

dxhound2005

worded wrote: »

UK Premium bonds - Stats
https://www.nsandi.com/premium-bonds

How do they compare with Irelands?

The maximum holding is £50,000 and it used to be only £30,000 and £40,000 not too long back. Which would never make them an attractive prospect for those hoping to match or better low interest rates.

Prize Bonds had no limit up until fairly recently when low interest rates on conventional savings products prompted an inflow from high value investors. A new maximum of €250,000 was introduced in 2015 for this reason.

Premium Bonds would not suit some of the high rollers on this thread.

pbwinner

Winnings on 10th February 2017: 0
Last win 23rd December 2016: 50
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on 25k: 2300

tuisginideach

€50 today:) - two weeks in a row from the same large batch

scotchy

€50 today:)

First win on 35k since last June.

.

tuisginideach

scotchy wrote: »

€50 today:)

First win on 35k since last June.

.

That's a long wait.

FoolsGold1

€50 today also.
Last win €50 on 16th December on upwards of 70K.

Taylor365

tuisginideach wrote: »

That's a long wait.

The potential of how bad an 'investment' these can be.

dxhound2005

scotchy wrote: »

€50 today:)

First win on 35k since last June.

.

Last June you said it was €23K ? And you were having a run of good luck up until then.

Anyway, that's the 5th €50 so far this year on about €23k of bonds. my best year so far and still only June.

I only checked because I thought it was a very poor run on 35K. But of course even at 35K the odds are still very long.

purplecow1977

Is it worth investing 10,000 in prize bonds? How would you go about it? The success rate isn't great going by evidence here but better than nothing!

Jellybaby1

We never viewed the PB as any kind of investment, more of a lottery really with the bonus of being able to cash them in. Could I ask the posters who have been lucky and won prizes, how old was your PB that won! I'd be interested to find out if any ancient numbers ever come up, but this may have been mentioned before, apologies if that is the case.

dxhound2005

Jellybaby1 wrote: »

We never viewed the PB as any kind of investment, more of a lottery really with the bonus of being able to cash them in. Could I ask the posters who have been lucky and won prizes, how old was your PB that won! I'd be interested to find out if any ancient numbers ever come up, but this may have been mentioned before, apologies if that is the case.

Ancient numbers (from the 1950's) win in every draw. You can go on the Prize Bonds site and put the winners in order of oldest to newest or vice versa. See my explanation on Page 214.

Jellybaby1

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Ancient numbers (from the 1950's) win in every draw. You can go on the Prize Bonds site and put the winners in order of oldest to newest or vice versa. See my explanation on Page 214.

Thank you for pointing me to the relevant post.