€25k invested in prize bonds

pbwinner

alb wrote: »

As I've said before, it's not difficult to have a system that is provably fair to a reasonable degree, it's unacceptable in 2017 to have it any other way.

Take it up the PB Company. I look forward to seeing you taking change of this investigation and posting the results.

pbwinner

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It is definitely fixed to give Dublin a lot of winners.  They seem to get about 2,800 prizes every week, and the rest of the country only gets around 4,000.  That is very unfair in a so called random draw.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Statistics

pbwinner

Winnings on 17th February 2017: 0
Last win 23rd December 2016: 50
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on 25k: 2300

Negative_G

Winnings on 13th February 2017: €50
Last win 13th January 2017: €50
Total winnings since Feb 2015 on €50k: €850
Total winnings since Oct 2016 on €20k: €0


By way of a quick summary. I have had my initial 50k batch for just over two years. During this time I have had a return of approximately 0.85%. Not great return but still better than what the banks are offering at present.

Didn't expect to be 5 months without a win on €20k if Im honest, although I would be lucky to see 2/3 wins per year on that lot if I am lucky.

alb

pbwinner wrote: »

Take it up the PB Company. I look forward to seeing you taking change of this investigation and posting the results.

I won't be bothering as I don't own any PB, and even if I was interested in them I wouldn't be buying any until the draw was provably fair.

tuisginideach

Andrea B. wrote: »

Agreed. I remember the ads on TV from when I was a kid. They go in to big washing machines and a nurse pulls out the winners.

That was the Hospitals Sweepstakes.

tuisginideach

Today

Cute Hoor

Ah here lads/lassies, this fake draw stuff is right up there with 'the earth is flat' and 'global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive'.

The Prize Bonds winners are selected in a computerised draw each week. The numbers are randomly generated by a computer and every draw is observed by an official from the National Treasury Management Agency. The results of every draw are independently analysed to confirm the randomness of the draw.

The prize bond draw is conducted using a computer based, software-driven, random number generation system (the “system”). In conducting the draw, the system generates a random series of numbers in the same format as a Prize Bond serial number. If the series of numbers that is generated includes any serial number for bonds that have already been encashed the system will automatically remove these numbers from the series. A Prize Bond can only win one prize in each weekly draw. Prizes are awarded to the bond serial numbers (in descending order of amount) in the order in which the bond serial numbers were generated. This means that the highest valued prize is awarded to the first Prize Bond in the series, the second highest
valued prize to the second Prize Bond in the series and so on until all prizes are awarded.

dxhound2005

alb wrote: »

I won't be bothering as I don't own any PB, and even if I was interested in them I wouldn't be buying any until the draw was provably fair.

The draw has been going from 1957, with 52 draws per annum, and upwards of 10,000 prizes at times in each draw (currently around 6,800 prizes). Pre computers the draw method was laid out in this piece of legislation:

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1957/si/179/made/en/print

3. (1) The draw shall be held at the premises of the Bank, College Green, Dublin.

(2) The draw shall be conducted by such officer of the Bank as the Bank nominates for that purpose.

(3) A representative of the Minister shall be present at the draw and the representative shall be such officer of the Minister as the Minister nominates for that purpose.

4. (1) The following provisions shall have effect in relation to the conduct of the draw :

(a) there shall be an apparatus consisting of six containers capable of being rotated together, the containers being designated respectively from left to right facing the apparatus " index letter and hundreds of thousands ", " tens of thousands ", " thousands ", " hundreds ", " tens " and " units " ;

(b) there shall be counters bearing numbers concealed from view when the counters are closed ;

(c) in the container designated " index letter and hundreds of thousands " there shall be contained eleven closed counters bearing respectively the numbers 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and A.0 and in each of the remaining containers there shall be contained ten closed counters bearing respectively the numbers 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 ;

(d) the prizes shall be drawn for in order of amount, commencing with the largest prizes ;

(e) in relation to each prize, the procedure shall be as follows :

(i) mixing of the counters shall be effected by rotation of the apparatus,

(ii) after mixing has been effected, the apparatus shall be brought to a stop,

(iii) when the apparatus has been brought to a stop, one counter shall be drawn at random out of each container and the counters shall then be opened to display the number on each,

(iv) the bond the number of which consists of the numbers drawn as aforesaid from the six containers, read from left to right facing the containers, shall, subject to the next clause of this subparagraph and Regulation 5, stand selected for the prize,

(v) the number consisting of the numbers drawn as aforesaid shall be disregarded (and the procedure specified in this paragraph shall accordingly berepeated) if either that number is not the number of any of the bonds held on the 1st day of September, 1957, or it has already occurred during the course of the draw,

(vi) finally, the counters shall be closed and replaced in the appropriate containers ;

(f) when numbers have been drawn for all the prizes available, additional numbers shall, for the purpose of enabling substitutions under Regulation 5 to be effected, be drawn in the manner specified in the foregoing subparagraph ;

(g) on completion of the list of the numbers drawn (that is to say, numbers of bonds selected for prizes and additional numbers), that list shall be signed by the person conducting the draw and by the representative at the draw of the Minister.



From 1993 it was computerised:

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1993/si/337/made/en/print

10 Conduct of draws.

10. (1) The following provisions shall have effect in relation to the conduct of a draw:

( a ) there shall be a computer-based, software-driven, random number-generation system, which shall be subject to the approval of NTMA (the "system");

( b ) the system shall be capable of generating at random and recording, in the order in which they are generated, a series of any size of bond serial numbers provided always that a number, or series of numbers (the "seed"), be first entered into the system;

( c ) the system shall be subject to such tests for randomness as shall be determined by the Operator with the consent of NTMA;

( d ) a new seed shall be selected by lot for each draw in such manner as may be determined by the Operator with the consent of NTMA and such selection shall be regarded as part of the draw;

( e ) the procedure for selecting bonds for prizes shall be as follows:

(i) the seed shall be entered into the system;

(ii) the system shall generate at random a series of bond serial numbers (which may, if circumstances so require, include serial numbers which have not yet been allocated to bonds) and shall record the bond serial numbers so generated and the order in which they are generated;

(iii) for the purposes of maintaining secrecy in relation to the draw, the size of the series of bond serial numbers generated shall exceed the size required to exhaust the prize fund, and amount of such excess shall be determined by the Operator with the consent of NTMA, and the order in which the bond serial numbers are generated shall be mixed under a password-controlled software command;

(iv) any serial number generated which has not been allocated to a bond or which is the serial number of a bond—

(A) which has been cancelled prior to the month in which the draw is held; or

(B) whose serial number has previously been generated in the same draw

shall be disregarded and shall be ineligible for a prize and for the purpose of ascertaining which serial numbers are to be so disregarded, the register shall be consulted;

(v) the order in which the serial numbers of the bonds which are eligible for a prize were generated shall then be re-established under a password-controlled software command; and

(vi) the prizes shall be awarded to such bonds in descending order of amount in the order in which the bond serial numbers were generated until all the prizes have been awarded;

(2) The serial numbers of the bonds which have been selected for prizes, and the amount of the prize awarded to each bond, shall be displayed to officers of the Operator and NTMA having conduct of the draw in such manner as may be determined by the Operator with the agreement of NTMA.

I invite you to find someone from the owners of those millions of winning bonds who has manipulated the system in some way, either before or after 1993. I think that if such manipulation was going on since 1957 that the information would have leaked and there would have been an almighty scandal. If you cannot provide evidence to the contrary then I am happy to put my faith in the integrity of the system.

There are people on this thread apparently who said that they manipulated the system by complaining about their bonds never winning, which resulted in a win the following draw. So your first port of call should probably be to ask them to outline exactly how they went about this process.

alb

I'm not necessarily saying it's rigged, I'm saying there's no need for it be secret or to rely on trust that it is fair. They should be able to prove the numbers are random, not ask you to trust them that they are.

Esel

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It is definitely fixed to give Dublin a lot of winners. They seem to get about 2,800 prizes every week, and the rest of the country only gets around 4,000. That is very unfair in a so called random draw.

Would you not think that's down to demographics?

arkrow

Heres a story about a lad rigging multiple US state lotto random generated draws for years, he "won" millions.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/04/07/world/crime-legal-world/u-s-lottery-vendor-accused-rigging-drawings-allegedly-installed-code-predicted-winners/

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/12/23/Lottery-official-who-rigged-14M-jackpot-charged-in-Wisconsin-fix/6671482518836/

Ntma send some lad down to observe draw, hardly independent, the FAQ on prizebonds site says on one FAQ answer that the draws are independently analysed afterwards while directing you to another answer where theirs no more info??

Theirs been multiple posts on here from people saying they won a week after complaining they'd won nothing in years.

Theirs a considerable amount (millions?) in the draw from users on here and the most won going back years is €50.

I'd have no faith in it myself. Their'd be no scandal either looking at the news from just the last few years in this corrupt little island.

Enda Kenny maybe telling a fib dominated news all week, what happened to HSE waiting lists.

dxhound2005

I have figured out what is going on here. The posters who claim that the draw is rigged, and who demand proof otherwise, are vendors of rival products to Prize Bonds. They are most likely agents for the associated banks which have waged a campaign against the NTMA products in order to reduce that company's market share.

Until I get proof from these posters that they have no connection with any rivals to the NTMA then I am entitled to believe that their motivation is to try to blacken the name of Prize Bonds.

I will be waiting for proof.

alb

Why would you not want a draw that's provably fair? there's no downside, it's easy to do.

patnor1011

I have always seen Prize Bonds as alternative to sock or mattress. Like place to "park" cash more safely than having it hidden in home or bank where some of it is eaten by various fees. What happened in Cyprus may very well happen here too and Irish banks are not known for wise investment strategy. Prize bonds may just be that, safe parking of cash with added bonus of possible win. It is not investment and I do not think it ever was.
My prize bond holdings are rather small but rather there than in any of the banks here.

nice_guy80

patnor1011 wrote: »

I have always seen Prize Bonds as alternative to sock or mattress. Like place to "park" cash more safely than having it hidden in home or bank where some of it is eaten by various fees. What happened in Cyprus may very well happen here too and Irish banks are not known for wise investment strategy. Prize bonds may just be that, safe parking of cash with added bonus of possible win. It is not investment and I do not think it ever was.
My prize bond holdings are rather small but rather there than in any of the banks here.

Good way of putting it
I just had 10,000 euro in a six month deposit term account €32 interest.
fook that

Taylor365

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Good way of putting it
I just had 10,000 euro in a six month deposit term account €32 interest.
fook that

KBC(€22k) and EBS(€13k) reg savers will net you over 500 per year after tax with a drip fed 35k. KBC involves a lot of standing orders and 2 accounts.

I don't expect these to last, especially not KBCs offer.

Fingers Mcginty

Is there a way online of viewing the ammount you have in prizebonds. I bought some yesterday in the postoffice but when i out in my name/pps no etc on the website it doesn't recognise ??? It's a joint a/c btw

Fingers Mcginty

Just rang them there....takes 7 to 10 working days.

Cork Lass

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It is definitely fixed to give Dublin a lot of winners. They seem to get about 2,800 prizes every week, and the rest of the country only gets around 4,000. That is very unfair in a so called random draw.

Have you ever stopped to think how many prize bonds are purchased in Dublin. A lot of companies buy them as part of their pension scheme and a lot of those companies have their head office in Dublin. Personally, we've not won anything since 30th December on an investment of €120,000. Hoping for something this week.

g0g

Cork Lass wrote: »

Have you ever stopped to think how many prize bonds are purchased in Dublin. A lot of companies buy them as part of their pension scheme and a lot of those companies have their head office in Dublin. Personally, we've not won anything since 30th December on an investment of €120,000. Hoping for something this week.

Really!? Wow, I would never have thought that would make sense?

arkrow

g0g wrote: »

Really!? Wow, I would never have thought that would make sense?

It doesn't. At all. Sure the returns are sh1te.

omerin

Cork Lass wrote: »

Have you ever stopped to think how many prize bonds are purchased in Dublin. A lot of companies buy them as part of their pension scheme and a lot of those companies have their head office in Dublin. Personally, we've not won anything since 30th December on an investment of €120,000. Hoping for something this week.

That can't be right, seriously, pension schemes purchasing PBs? I've posted here a few times, and while I don't have the same amount as you, I do have a considerable amount which looking back at the last 32 draws, I have won €50 on 4 occasions. The longest period without a win was 12 weeks, so you'll have to get use to long periods of time without a win as it's only getting worse

tuisginideach

tuisginideach wrote: »

Today

And today

Allinall

alb wrote: »

Why would you not want a draw that's provably fair? there's no downside, it's easy to do.

Because people would say the proof was rigged.

Who would independently authenticate the proof?

Cute Hoor

Yippeeee, I had forgotten what it was like to get a win

€100 win today (2 x €50), PB's bought November 1998 and February 2016, first win since 29/7/2016. Another €50 family win today as well. BTW I hadn't rung the PB office to complain about not winning!!
Next Friday definitely - the big one!!!

Winnings to date (no winning records kept pre 2005) €1,275 on €8,650 worth of PB's bought monthly over a 19 year period plus €20,000 bought in Feb 2016.

Winnings 2011 €75
Winnings 2012 €150
Winnings 2013 €200
Winnings 2014 €100
Winnings 2015 Zero
Winnings 2016 €200
Winnings 2017 €100 (so far)

pbwinner

Winnings on 24th February 2017: 0
Last win 23rd December 2016: 50
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on 25k: 2300

Cork Lass

Dry spell over at last. €50 today

Sligo Quay

1St win for 2017 €50euro today, last win 30th Dec 2016, total wins on 30k purchased June 2016 €150euro.

Total wins 20k purchased August 2015 €350euro.

All this nonsense about more winners in the Dublin area, of course there's more winners in Dublin as it has the highest population and the largest holding of prize bonds, the lowest number of winners is within the 6 counties of Northern Ireland which is no surprise as that population probably chooses to purchase UK Premium Bonds, Premium Bonds also has holders in the Republic of Ireland and guess what, there are more winners in Premium Bonds in Northern Ireland than the rest of Ireland, I wonder why lol it works both ways.

worded

Anyone want to compare the odds of winning uk premium bonds versus irish prose bonds ? Particularly The big prizes

Is there a bette chance of winning in the uk

Also is it tax free to have a uk premium bond win as an irish citizen ?

Thanks