€25k invested in prize bonds

Agent Smyth

tuisginideach wrote: »

AgentSmyth - I look forward to your next calculation of how many times €x worth of bonds should win - I am so far down on last year's winnings, I need to feel there's a brighter future ahead!

It's a year since I last did one, my how time flies when your having fun
So here goes my guesstimation of wins per holdings per year

€100,000 = 12 wins
€50,000 = 6 wins
€25,000 = 4 wins
€10,000 = 1 win
€5,000 = 1 win every 2 years
€1,000 = 1 win every 8 years

Last year I guesstimated 43 wins for me, I ended up with 50
This year on a reduced fund I'm guessing 30 and for first six months I've had 17 wins.

tuisginideach

Thanks Agent Smyth - you have cheered me up (along with last week's bonanza of course!). According to your calculations, I have won just over 50% of what I'm "due" - it was looking so bad for the past few weeks that I thought I'd dropped out of the barrel altogether. Even though your calculation shows the frequency of prizes has diminished hugely, I take comfort in the fact that I haven't gone off the rails totally. Here's to today - for us all!

MysticMonk

Agent Smyth wrote: »

It's a year since I last did one, my how time flies when your having fun
So here goes my guesstimation of wins per holdings per year

€100,000 = 12 wins
€50,000 = 6 wins
€25,000 = 4 wins
€10,000 = 1 win
€5,000 = 1 win every 2 years
€1,000 = 1 win every 8 years

Last year I guesstimated 43 wins for me, I ended up with 50
This year on a reduced fund I'm guessing 30 and for first six months I've had 17 wins.

You still haven't won more than 50 euro a time though and you seem to have a lot of money tied up in these bonds.

Agent Smyth

MysticMonk wrote: »

You still haven't won more than 50 euro a time though and you seem to have a lot of money tied up in these bonds.

You are quite correct, my last €100 was May last year
For me and I'm sure most people here know the big prizes are a pipe dream
The €50 prize is the only one your going to win with any regularity.
Out of 7293 weekly prizes there is only 21 that aren't €50 and those 21 prizes will be picked from about 491 million bonds.
If it happens it happens but if it dosen't, I'm not losing any sleep

tuisginideach

Not sure what's going in in there at the moment!

Congratulations you have new winners.

Draw Date Prize Value Bond Number
21 July 2017 €50
21 July 2017 €50

Hope there'll be lots of smailey faces all around today! :):):):)

Cork Lass

€50 for us this week . Well done Tuisginideach - you're definitely on a roll, long may it continue. Our win was on an old bond in a batch of €500. Nothing on our big batches.

pbwinner

Winnings on 21st July 2017: €0
Last win 7th July 2017: €50
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2400
2011: €75 x 4 €300
2012: €75 x 6 €450
2013: €50 x 12 €600
2014: €50 x 9 €450
2015: €50 x 5 €250
2016: €50 x 5 €250
2017: €50 x 2 €100

FoolsGold1

€50 win today for me, thank you!
Last win €50 on 7th instant, and before that it was €50 on 10th March.

dxhound2005

Agent Smyth wrote: »

Given that the PB fund was €3,069,082,352 at the end of June,
there would be around 491 million bonds in circulation.
This grows by at least a million bonds every week,
sometimes closer to one and a half million.

So on the 28th of July there will be about 5 million new bonds in the draw competing for the 7293 prizes.
In March 2013 there were around 272 million bonds competing for 9168 weekly prizes,
now we have 491 million bonds competing for 7293 weekly prizes.

And we wonder why we're not winning any more

Is that an official figure for the fund value?

Using a calculation based on the number of prizes I come up with about 502 million bonds in circulation this month.

Fund value 31 December 2016 (official figure) €2.894 billion. That was used to produce the January 2017 prizes which were 6722 per draw. July 2017 is 7293 prizes which is a 8.5% increase on January. €2.894 billion equaled 463 million bonds. Multiplied by 108.5% is 502 million.

These are rough figures and maybe I am overlooking something obvious. If the €3.069 billion figure can be proved they go out the window.

Every way round we are still looking at nearly half a billion bonds being losers every draw.

36 winners in Longford today outdoing Leitrim and Monaghan. And another winner in Japan.

butrasgali

I must just unlucky. I have 50k invested and haven't won in a year....

butrasgali

I must just unlucky. I have 50k invested and haven't won in a year....

tuisginideach

That is definitely unlucky. One batch of 50K or lots of little batches? Personally, I have never won on a batch smaller than €4000.

Agent Smyth

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Is that an official figure for the fund value?

Using a calculation based on the number of prizes I come up with about 502 million bonds in circulation this month.

Fund value 31 December 2016 (official figure) €2.894 billion. That was used to produce the January 2017 prizes which were 6722 per draw. July 2017 is 7293 prizes which is a 8.5% increase on January. €2.894 billion equaled 463 million bonds. Multiplied by 108.5% is 502 million.

These are rough figures and maybe I am overlooking something obvious. If the €3.069 billion figure can be proved they go out the window.

Every way round we are still looking at nearly half a billion bonds being losers every draw.

36 winners in Longford today outdoing Leitrim and Monaghan. And another winner in Japan.

It's about as close as you can get to an offical figure.

butrasgali

One batch is 30 k..Don't know is that an advantage in a draw or not

tuisginideach

I know people will say that statistically it makes no difference but my experience has convinced me otherwise.

dxhound2005

tuisginideach wrote: »

I know people will say that statistically it makes no difference but my experience has convinced me otherwise.

It's not statistics, it's the laws of chance. No amount of statistics about who won what will change the odds of anyone winning. As it happens I have the opposite experience to you with certainly two, maybe three €75/€50 holdings winning over the last few years. These are the blocks I get by reinvesting winnings. Also many years ago I won with €50 bonds allocated to me for a year by my car insurance company. But my £5 bond from 1975 has never won.

Our individual experiences cannot alter the odds for anyone else. If they have €30K in one block or €30K in lots of different blocks, the odds are exactly the same.

tuisginideach

OK - I accept the word statistically was incorrect ...

Agent Smyth

tuisginideach wrote: »

OK - I accept the word statistically was incorrect ...

In the context of the discussion that goes on here, it was easy to understand the point you were making and I would agree with you.
Over the last two and a half years 91% of my winnings comes from 4 large batches, the other 9% from 10 small batches

Cute Hoor

tuisginideach wrote: »

Not sure what's going in in there at the moment!

Congratulations you have new winners.

Draw Date Prize Value Bond Number
21 July 2017 €50
21 July 2017 €50

Hope there'll be lots of smailey faces all around today! :):):):)

Ah here c'mon, you're bleedin hoggin the prizes now, how many times did you ring them last week.

For me :(:(:(:(

tuisginideach

Sorry Cute Hoor - when I'm on to them next week, I'll put in a word for you too - and for all the posters here!

dxhound2005

Agent Smyth wrote: »

In the context of the discussion that goes on here, it was easy to understand the point you were making and I would agree with you.
Over the last two and a half years 91% of my winnings comes from 4 large batches, the other 9% from 10 small batches

In order to make sense of that more information is required. Without saying how much they are worth you could give the percentage of your holdings in each category. And of course all would need to have been in every draw for a fair comparison.

Anyone interested in statistics can have a field day using the map. Every draw gives more than 50% of all the winners to Dublin and Cork combined. My take on that is that more than half the bonds are held in those counties.

And an examination of the index letters of winning bonds is also very instructive. Any week without much searching I can come up with blocks of bonds worth much less than €10K which get two winners or more.

But there are no statistics which can be derived to prove that large blocks are more productive proportionally. Nor can anyone prove that newer bonds are more likely to win proportionally. Given that about 25 million bonds were issued in the first 20 years of the scheme and about 465 million in the next 40 years it is not surprising that newer bonds win more prizes. I am basing that on my 1975 bond being from the W series with the scheme having started in 1957.

https://www.statesavings.ie/PrizebondsApp/DrawResults.aspx

Here are two wins from very close bonds numbers.

50 WI630262 LIMERICK
50 WI630532 LIMERICK

Sligo Quay

tuisginideach wrote: »

Sorry Cute Hoor - when I'm on to them next week, I'll put in a word for you too - and for all the posters here!

Don't forget ME!!!

Jellybaby1

tuisginideach wrote: »

Sorry Cute Hoor - when I'm on to them next week, I'll put in a word for you too - and for all the posters here!

And ME! And all of us who put in what we thought was a large amount of money way back in the 70's but what looks like peanuts now compared to what everyone else has in there now. We've got nuttin out of it at all over 40 years.

tuisginideach

Of course - I included you all - I said 'anyone who is a boardsie needs a few wins to help them keep faith in you!' - they said they'd do their best! Here's to tomorrow!

nice_guy80

hmmmm

had a bit of money (10k+) mature recently and was thinking of getting some prize bonds

now I'm not so sure.

karltimber

question -for folks with substantial qty's - 30K +
q - did you buy them in 1 go or over a few days or weeks ?

I recently (2 weeks ago) bought 40K worth online (5k a pop) over 8 consecutive days

Am just wondering if I would have been better off buying with a few days in between !!! to get a better range of numbers with a gap.

K

dubrov

karltimber wrote:

Am just wondering if I would have been better off buying with a few days in between !!! to get a better range of numbers with a gap.

Unless you believe something dodgy is going on, your odds of winning should be the same in either case

fepper

The prizes are being cut from 1st Aug,its a rate change,prize money seems to be the same maybe not as many times

Cork Lass

fepper wrote: »

The prizes are being cut from 1st Aug

Do you have a link to that information?

fepper

Cork Lass wrote: »

Do you have a link to that information?

No,saw it posted on askaboutmoney,I'm sure its on the N.T.M.A.website