€25k invested in prize bonds

ZeroThreat

Guitardan777 wrote: »

Interesting news for PB holders, Merkels party had its worst result in 70 years at the German elections, she is the quantative easing Queen and after this poor result her party will have to go into coalition with parties that want QE to end and finally after five years of no return give German & thus European savers a real break and hike up interest rates, wonderful news for us PB holders as it means rates could go up much quicker than expected, rates WILL rise next year but now it's a question of how much? A quarter % for sure but with this defeat perhaps a full 1% by December 2018? Let us pray it happens for the humble PB holder, 2018 the year of interest rate rise! Glorious news.

..maybe, but don't forget all taxpayers will most likely be screwed if the interest repayment on the bailout shoots up by billions...

dxhound2005

Guitardan777 wrote: »

Interesting news for PB holders, Merkels party had its worst result in 70 years at the German elections, she is the quantative easing Queen and after this poor result her party will have to go into coalition with parties that want QE to end and finally after five years of no return give German & thus European savers a real break and hike up interest rates, wonderful news for us PB holders as it means rates could go up much quicker than expected, rates WILL rise next year but now it's a question of how much? A quarter % for sure but with this defeat perhaps a full 1% by December 2018? Let us pray it happens for the humble PB holder, 2018 the year of interest rate rise! Glorious news.

Someone reading this might think, "there's someone who seems to know what they are writing about". But then if they Googled "Euro interest rate forecast" the first link says this:

Interest Rate in Euro Area is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Euro Area to stand at 0.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Interest Rate is projected to trend around 0.75 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate/forecast

Who to believe??

FoolsGold1

Nothing since the €50 on 21st July on c.€70K

littlevillage

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Is my maths correct stating that as about 1.4% APR?

Very interesting experiment. Soo the OP has basically done far better than the banks in terms of his return and looks to have even surpassed the state savings bonds. (But I guess you need to be lucky and invest quite a large sum too, in order to even out the odds a bit).

Not bad.

Jellybaby1

Having been following this thread (quietly) I realised very quickly that you need to invest huge sums in order to receive any payback! Now I understand where my paltry few bob has gone.

dxhound2005

littlevillage wrote: »

Very interesting experiment. Soo the OP has basically done far better than the banks in terms of his return and looks to have even surpassed the state savings bonds. (But I guess you need to be lucky and invest quite a large sum too, in order to even out the odds a bit).

Not bad.

Are you taking account of interest rates available from other sources in 2011, 2012 etc? They were higher then than now just like Prize Bonds.


Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2450

Prize Bonds – with effect from Sunday 2 June 2013 the variable rate of interest used to determine the value of the monthly prize fund is 1.75%. )It was 2.25% prior to this and was 3% in December 2012)

BTW for anyone interested I am waiting for three months to elapse at the 0.50% rate to post a comparison with the first part of the year on my winnings. Too short a period I know to make a proper assessment but it might give some useful indication.

Agent Smyth

Guitardan777 wrote: »

Glorious news.

Glorious news for who ??

If there was to be a interest rate rise (which I doubt) of .25% most of it would be used for reinstating the million monthly prize, which is great if your the monthly winner but not if your counting on the weekly small prizes

Agent Smyth

A €50 win today brings September to 4 wins, not bad when compared to Augusts 1 win

tuisginideach

tuisginideach wrote: »

Back to normal this week. :(:(

ditto :(:(

pbwinner

Winnings on 29th September 2017: €50
Last win 25th August 2017: €50
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2500
2011: €75 x 4 €300
2012: €75 x 6 €450
2013: €50 x 12 €600
2014: €50 x 9 €450
2015: €50 x 5 €250
2016: €50 x 5 €250
2017: €50 x 4 €200

Negative_G

Winnings on 29th September 2017: €50
Last win 23rd June 2017: €50
Total winnings since Feb 2015 on €50k: €1,000
Total winnings since Oct 2016 on €20k: €50

First win in 3 months, pretty much since when the interest rate dropped again. Frequency of wins went from 5/6 weeks on average to over 12 for the latest one today.

Interestingly, this win is the only one on a €20k lot that I purchased in October 2016. So one win in 12 months.

Also interesting is that this win came less than 10 days after emailing Prize Bonds about withdrawing my funds. Tinfoil hat stuff I know but this is the second time its happened to me and I know its happened to others in my time following the thread.

_Brian

Negative_G wrote: »

Tinfoil hat stuff I know but this is the second time its happened to me and I know its happened to others in my time following the thread.

Makes me shudder and think "irish hospitals sweepstakes"

ZeroThreat

_Brian wrote: »

Makes me shudder and think "irish hospitals sweepstakes"

time for me to send an e-mail about withdrawing my €30k then

dxhound2005

Andrew Flexing wrote: »

Has anyone here ever had 2 wins on one batch of bonds in the same weekly draw?

It happens probably dozens of times every draw. These are two examples from today.

Prize Value Winning Bond County

50 WD382585 MONAGHAN
50 WD382955 MONAGHAN


50 LP954477 WEXFORD
50 LP954747 WEXFORD

FoolsGold1

Still nothing since the €50 on 21st July.

worded

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It happens probably dozens of times every draw. These are two examples from today.

Prize Value Winning Bond County

50 WD382585 MONAGHAN
50 WD382955 MONAGHAN


50 LP954477 WEXFORD
50 LP954747 WEXFORD

Well spotted. Id be interested in seeing ranges slightly further apart from different counties. In the above example the bonds are in a range probably / likely from the same buyer.

Its a concern that the random picking computer is not so random after all.

Who checks the randomness if anyone?
What checks are there?

The Lotto is overseen by KPMG. Who over sees it?

This is a banana republic after all, anything is possible by design or a flaw by accident

Cork Lass

€50 for us today on our €100k batch. First win on this batch since 2nd June.

dxhound2005

worded wrote: »

Well spotted. Id be interested in seeing ranges slightly further apart from different counties. In the above example the bonds are in a range probably / likely from the same buyer.

Its a concern that the random picking computer is not so random after all.

Who checks the randomness if anyone?
What checks are there?

The Lotto is overseen by KPMG. Who over sees it?

This is a banana republic after all, anything is possible by design or a flaw by accident

I was responding to this question.

Has anyone here ever had 2 wins on one batch of bonds in the same weekly draw?

You can go on the Prize Bond website and examine each of the draws going back for 6 months. The list of prizes is shown for each county, and there is the overall list. The default list shows the bonds in the sequence they were drawn. You can modify the list to show prefix order newest to oldest or vice versa. One thing which is consistent is that Dublin and Cork combined win over half of all the prizes in every draw. Lots of other interesting facts can be noted also. As they say knock yourself out.

You can find a very detailed explanation online also from the legislation on how the software operates, including how the draw is weighted to take account of the fact that old bonds were priced at IR£5 which is €6.35 as opposed to the newer bonds which are €6.25.

The same detailed information is available for how the process operated between 1957 and 1993, in the pre computer age. To my knowledge no person has ever proved that any draw since 1957 was fixed in any way. There are lots of conspiracy theories but they probably originate from conspiracy theorists. If you can find anything untoward please let us know.

Cute Hoor

worded wrote: »

Well spotted. Id be interested in seeing ranges slightly further apart from different counties. In the above example the bonds are in a range probably / likely from the same buyer.

Its a concern that the random picking computer is not so random after all.

Who checks the randomness if anyone?
What checks are there?

The Lotto is overseen by KPMG. Who over sees it?

This is a banana republic after all, anything is possible by design or a flaw by accident

Is that you Jim?

Sligo Quay

dxhound2005 wrote: »

I old bonds were priced at IR£5 which is €6.35 as opposed to the newer bonds which are €6.25.

Thank you sir, I've often wondered about that, I've 100 old bonds from the 1980s, ranging from AF to AL series, do you get the value of €6.35 if I decide to cash in.

Nothing this week, last win €50 22nd September on 20k batch, last win €50 on 30k batch 11th August.

dxhound2005

They have a supply of old five pound notes for people like you. Only joking.

It's on the repayment application form. You have to calculate the value of the units you are cashing in.

http://www.anpost.ie/AnPost/downloads/statesavings/An_Post_PrizeBonds_Repayment_Form.pdf

Andrew Flexing

Just checked my bonds for last week.
No Joy
Weeks without a win: 2

tuisginideach

tuisginideach wrote: »

ditto :(:(

and ditto again :(:(

pbwinner

Winnings on 6th October 2017: €0
Last win 29th September 2017: €50
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2500
2011: €75 x 4 €300
2012: €75 x 6 €450
2013: €50 x 12 €600
2014: €50 x 9 €450
2015: €50 x 5 €250
2016: €50 x 5 €250
2017: €50 x 4 €200

Andrew Flexing

No Joy...
Weeks without a win: 3

Cork Lass

2 X €50 for us today on our €100k batch. Must be our turn 😁

Agent Smyth

If my figures are correct it would appear the PB fund is now about 3,197,360,000 Euro as of the end of September 17,
Which means at the moment there are about 511,577,600 bonds.

During September I reckon the PB fund grew by 17,160,000 Euro,
Which means there will be an extra 2,745,600 bonds in each draw during October compared to September.

I would estimate that on average there was a net growth in the PB fund of 817,143 Euro for each working day during September.

2016
June's daily growth €1,786,487 old rate 1.25%
July's daily growth €1,500,280 new rate .85%
August's daily growth €1,529,411 @ .85%
September's daily growth €1,251,336 @ .85%
October's daily growth €145,658 @ .85%
November's daily growth €2,101,279 @ .85%
December's daily growth €3,868,512 @ .85%
2017
Janurary's daily growth €1,768,797 @ .85%
February's daily growth €1,590,588 @ .85%
March's daily growth €1,418,181 @ .85%
April's daily growth €1,308,497 @ .85%
May's daily growth €1,107,002 @ .85%
June's daily growth €1,170,985 @ .85%
July's daily growth €4,567,882 @ .85%
August's daily growth €898,182 @ .5%
September's daily growth €817,142 @ .5%

It would seem since the last rate reduction the daily growth is definitely falling, the banks will be pleased

on a side note the chance of winning the top prize in the the PBs is at least 1 in 511,577,600
but tonights Euromillions on the other hand is only 1 in 139,838,160

tuisginideach

.... Off I trot for the Euromillions so ... if I don't post next week, don't worry about me ...

Andrew Flexing

Cork Lass wrote: »

2 X €50 for us today on our €100k batch. Must be our turn ��

2 hits in 1 week!?! Well done!!!!

Cork Lass

tuisginideach wrote: »

.... Off I trot for the Euromillions so ... if I don't post next week, don't worry about me ...

No point, I bought mine yesterday and clearly I’m on a streak :pac::pac: